Dump it Here

[Newt]

Go Bat! Stubbornly coming out of the cave each evening searching for juicy tidbits of fruit even in the darkest rainy weather.

Promising pinbar rebound off previous years tops for Russell 2000, but DJIA and Nasdaq still leave room for plenty of downside. Will take 1 or 2 strong weeks for most systems with market index filters to turn on again however. My systems tend to be conservative coming back "on" - but have played over the years with "what would have happened" if buying had started a week or month or two early after later 2018, the GFC. Surprisingly it rarely makes much long term difference - seems to take quite a few weeks for weekly momentum systems to get their....well,..... "momentum" back.

Has anyone seen Alan Kohler's serious of randomly correlated graphs in recent days during ABC news. Love the way he politely reminds you no-body really knows where the markets will go next, even though the Financial Media would try to convince you each day it was because of X, Y and Z.

 

[AussieStockDawg]

Apologies if this is not be the thread to ask in.

I'd greatly appreciate it if those who use Amibroker could share details and or .afl of the charts and chart layouts that you use to get some ideas.

I want to setup some standard layout charts to be able to assess relative performance across markets/market sectors and stocks, triple screen, etc.


Thanks

 

[qldfrog]

Apologies if this is not be the thread to ask in.

I'd greatly appreciate it if those who use Amibroker could share details and or .afl of the charts and chart layouts that you use to get some ideas.

I want to setup some standard layout charts to be able to assess relative performance across markets/market sectors and stocks, triple screen, etc.


Thanks

My own view only: AB is not that great for charting.everything is doable but i just stick to very basic charts, displaying my indicators buy sell signals so maybe a few ma etc.i have always had issues managing multiple panes with different charts on same data.they do not behave as i expect.please anyone with a different view, i am all ears and ready to learn?

 

[frugal.rock]

That's Life.

Recently, 27th April, I started a day job again. Not really by choice, but from wanting to help someone I met a few years ago.
He has a new business, baby was due etc. The situation reminded me of 2007 when my wife had our first.

As a result, trading got put on the back burner, totally.
Since then and now, 1 partial sell to cover a new buy, but largely disinterested in the markets throws.

Mixed emotions on the results, but a portfolio reduction (around 30%) near the highlighted high, has somewhat alleviated a bit of financial pain.
It's just money right?
Hopefully the market lifts it's game, but I'm reminded of the dead cat, and my take. On the way down it bounces off balconies and air conditioners...
Hopefully Friday's effort signals a landing bounce.

As a discretionary and sometimes contrarian trader, the portfolio doesn't really suit a long hold scenario.
Capitulation should've been on the 27th April when I started working.
I noted that the portfolio went down around 5% in early trade, but recovered to near flat.
That was my signal. Ignored with apathy due to my current quest.

The results of a a trader who neglects the situation?



Some further thoughts are,
I admire the "weekend warrior" trading systems.
I don't agree that these modern markets are a decent platform to apply weekly based system trading.
Perhaps a mixup of an end of week being midweek might make a difference, but overall, the time frame I believe is a killer under the changed landscape, which suited my style to a tee.

Inactive Member

I haven't posted for a while, so am having a dump after a few Southern Comforts with diet coke.

I saw a bat on a powerline a few days ago. Fried. Clinging by rigor to one line by a leg.
I wondered how long it would "hang 5 ?"
before the inevitable.
Hopefully a Mary Shelley character revives the bat. ?

 

[qldfrog]

Perhaps a mixup of an end of week being midweek might make a difference, but overall, the time frame I believe is a killer under the changed landscape, which suited my style to a

This is an area debated much.
I agree that a week is a long time during these volatile time.i personally moved to a set of daily systems during the last year but: the workload is intense, and while work does not scare me, availability does.a gp or dentist appointment becomes a drama if it interferes with asx opening time, worse going away or losing connectivity...so not an easy way practically.
Everyone is different but really interfering with daily life..and..well did not make much difference..still get more small cuts than big one but mot really better results for me..both weekly and daily systems got similar BT as well even targetting recent time such as the 2020 crash and pump.
Changing the week start trading weekly on monday, tuesday, etc seems to change zip as well based on BT.
Counter intuitively i have to say as i thought it would, even years ago...
I think the key is the trade or do not trade...embedded in the system "code".
Today all my systems are down, some heavily but one, which stopped trading relatively early on.
But we can expect that one will miss any rebond whereas the the other will gorge.
The sad fact is that you do not make money on a long only trend system in a bear market.so you either stop trading, or swallow the DD in the hope that markets will rebond.

 

[Skate]

The sad fact is that you do not make money on a long only trend system in a bear market.so you either stop trading, or swallow the DD in the hope that markets will rebond.

Hindsight
Is simply understanding an event only after it has happened & "with hindsight", I should never have traded within the yellow circles or during a sideways trend.

@qldfrog nailed it
"You only make money trading with the trend" but the real issue is that "you don't know when a trend starts & when it stops"

I'm less inclined to buy pull-backs in this market environment. I'll wait for prices to make new highs before I'll buy. Buying pull-backs in bullish markets only.

A picture paints a thousand words
The 4-year weekly capture below is the ASX:XAO & this pattern repeats in all time frames.



Skate.

 

[Skate]

If your current preferences are system trading then take noteswhen you come to @Skate's post about his systems and his processes. The information you seek is there but you have to decide which parts resonate with you. IMO skip the psycho babble posts as they won't mean much to you yet. It's only when we notice that things are not as easy as it should be that we need to understand what's holding us back. Then the psycho babble may start to make sense.

Losing money is not fun
It's times like these that we need to keep our losses or drawdowns in perspective. I tend to use boxing analogies to put things into perspective but until you have been hit in the face a few times it tends not to sink in. Peter loves tennis & he knows that you can't win every point but that doesn't mean you don't try. You win some & you lose some, that's the nature of the game.

The portfolio lost value this week as the commodity selloff continues. No surprises here with the performance so far as it was an unlucky time to start a portfolio of spec stocks.

Freaking out
There is never a good time to start trading a new strategy, I know this & Peter knows this & has commented that the starting date of any new strategy can have a big impact on its early results.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

This is an area debated much.
I agree that a week is a long time during these volatile time.i personally moved to a set of daily systems during the last year but: the workload is intense, and while work does not scare me, availability does.a gp or dentist appointment becomes a drama if it interferes with asx opening time, worse going away or losing connectivity...so not an easy way practically.
Everyone is different but really interfering with daily life..and..well did not make much difference..still get more small cuts than big one but mot really better results for me..both weekly and daily systems got similar BT as well even targetting recent time such as the 2020 crash and pump.
Changing the week start trading weekly on monday, tuesday, etc seems to change zip as well based on BT.
Counter intuitively i have to say as i thought it would, even years ago...
I think the key is the trade or do not trade...embedded in the system "code".
Today all my systems are down, some heavily but one, which stopped trading relatively early on.
But we can expect that one will miss any rebond whereas the the other will gorge.
The sad fact is that you do not make money on a long only trend system in a bear market.so you either stop trading, or swallow the DD in the hope that markets will rebond.

Just have to be clear,i stopped all my daily in February as i could not physically carry these on during an o/s trip.
I have not restarted dailies yet as the new found free time allow me to focus on life and other activities inc potential project.

 

[Skate]

The psycho-babble
The psycho content in the "dump it here" thread is important so you have a sound understanding of how trading affects everyone & to some degree it affects some more than others. Being armed with this understanding helps place drawdowns into perspective. With a string of losses or an accumulation of losses, we tend to "react" rather than "respond" to these unfolding events.

This is important
"Reacting to a situation doesn't give you time to think, responding does".

Pesky emotions
Traders tend to underestimate the importance of their emotions when making decisions. If you have a totally mechanical or mathematical approach to the market, you don’t have to worry too much about pesky emotions, but they are still there to some degree. Some days are lemons whereas other days are lemonade, accept this & you are halfway there to getting your emotions under control.

If it's too much to bear - alleviate the stress
We all feel that sinking feeling in our guts when a trade goes against us. This is the time when our emotions are being hijacked "encouraging" us to do the wrong thing at the wrong time. But if the stress is too much to bear, the simple & effective solution to alleviate the internal discomfort is to exit the trade, solely to relieve this distress. I'm just saying "Staying on your feet is a much better alternative than laying on the canvass".

Skate.

 

[Sir Burr]

View attachment 141696

Losing money is not fun

Power to Radge
YTD PnL: -533,184

 

[Ann]

Power to Radge
YTD PnL: -533,184

Hopefully, that is just his drawdown?

 

[qldfrog]

Power to Radge
YTD PnL: -533,184

In percentage and is it FY Oz Style or calendar year?
My calendar years are not much fun

 

[MovingAverage]

Power to Radge
YTD PnL: -533,184

That takes some serious nuts and conviction to continue trading through that and not many could do that.

 

[Ann]

That takes some serious nuts and conviction to continue trading through that and not many could do that.

Depends on the portfolio percentage I should think, I thought he had a few million in his portfolio so it could be a four or five% drawdown. No biggie, it is all relative.

 

[Skate]

Depends on the portfolio percentage I should think, I thought he had a few million in his portfolio so it could be a four or five% drawdown. No biggie, it is all relative.

I recently made a post how talking about percentages you quickly become desensitized to its real value. Relating a loss in percentage & converting it to dollars is sobering.

Skate.

 

[Ann]

I recently made a post how talking about percentages you quickly become desensitized to its real value. Relating a loss in percentage & converting it to dollars is sobering.

Yes, I am sure converting a percentage that seems reasonable and within the bounds of a reasonable drawdown could become a sobering if not catastrophizing effect on someone by converting it to dollars. Once that is done the person will then begin to think of it in terms of what they could have bought with that money what pleasure they could have had and that will then lead to an unhealthy feeling of loss and even possibly planting the seeds of fear for the future. In other words, setting the trader up with an unhealthy perspective. Not something I subscribe to, it is hard enough when the markets puke and you are in the middle of it. I always look to bolster my inner voice with positives, not negatives. It makes trading so much easier and calmer.

 

[Skate]

Looking at percentages
Looking at your trading results as percentages only you’ll become quickly conditioned & accepting. A drawdown of 20%, yeah, that's acceptable & let's face it, we have all made the same remark at one stage or another.

You need to convert percentages to dollars
20% converted to dollars takes on a new meaning so don't let percentages fool you into a false sense of security.

Percentages are relevant to the size of your portfolio.
(a) On a $20k portfolio, 20% is bearable but trading a larger portfolio it can be devastating & hard to swallow.
(b) On a $100k portfolio, 20% takes on a new meaning
(c) Trading a $1m or $2m portfolio 20% becomes very relevant indeed. That's $200k & $400k of your funds "GONE".

Skate.

 

[Ann]

(c) Trading a $1m or $2m portfolio 20% becomes very relevant indeed. That's $200k & $400k of your funds "GONE".

Only if you panic and sell the lot. Otherwise, it is simply a drawdown. I think it is simply a case of who has the knowledge and the balls to stare the market down!

 

[MovingAverage]

Depends on the portfolio percentage I should think, I thought he had a few million in his portfolio so it could be a four or five% drawdown. No biggie, it is all relative.

Sorry, most folks focus on $$ not percentage of portfolio. A $500k drawdown doesn't get any easier to accept just because it might be 10% to 20% of your portfolio. Humans are humans and even Nick R is a retail trader so that's still tough.

 

[Ann]

Sorry, most folks focus on $$ not percentage of portfolio. A $500k drawdown doesn't get any easier to accept just because it might be 10% to 20% of your portfolio. Humans are humans and even Nick R is a retail trader so that's still tough.

I don't subscribe to Nick R, is he bemoaning his loss/drawdown?