Dump it Here

[MovingAverage]

Sorry, most folks focus on $$ not percentage of portfolio. A $500k drawdown doesn't get any easier to accept just because it might be 10% to 20% of your portfolio. Humans are humans and even Nick R is a retail trader so that's still tough.

I think the difference with someone like Nick being able to deal with a $500k drawdown is not that he sees it in terms of a % of his portfolio, but rather his experience and faith in his systems and backtesting.

 

[MovingAverage]

I don't subscribe to Nick R, is he bemoaning his loss/drawdown?

Absolutely not

 

[Ann]

I think the difference with someone like Nick being able to deal with a $500k drawdown is not that he sees it in terms of a % of his portfolio, but rather his experience and faith in his systems and backtesting.

So he has confidence in what he is doing? I would be astounded if he is in the least upset. Maybe wrong of course.

 

[MovingAverage]

So he has confidence in what he is doing? I would be astounded if he is in the least upset. Maybe wrong of course.

You're wrong...he is very emotionless about it. Follow him on twitter if you want some insight

 

[Ann]

You're wrong...he is very emotionless about it.

I would be astounded if he is in the least upset.

That's what I just said!

 

[Mohammed Hazabig'un]

Top thread @Skate

Why don't you System people who struggle buy a System off Nick? I understand the creative enjoyment of creating your own but you can still do that wirh smaller amounts.

 

[Skate]

@Mohammed Hazabig'un welcome to the forum & after reading a few of your posts it's obvious you have much to offer.

Buying a strategy is the quickest way to start system trading
To answer your question directly, many contributors to the "Dump it here" thread have already purchased "Turnkey" strategies from Nick with varying degrees of trading success.

Nick Radge once said
"It takes time to work on a trading plan & develop a strong trader's psychology. It is essential for every successful trader to learn more about money management, create & test other trading ideas thoroughly."

We all struggle
No matter how we elect to trade we all struggle to get the balance right that allows us to gain the financial freedom we all seek. Erratic market behaviour & world events are mudding the water at the moment for system traders. If it wasn't that it would most likely be something else. Having patience is a key to successful trading as the markets always seem to rise steadily. I'm just saying, "to make money you always need to be engaged in the market".

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

Top thread @Skate

Why don't you System people who struggle buy a System off Nick? I understand the creative enjoyment of creating your own but you can still do that wirh smaller amounts.

What makes you believe Nick's system would be better?
In that case you can just leave your money with a Lic or fund.
The process of building a system and confidence and trust is as important as the code.otherwise you will be out at the first DD.
My view only?

 

[Mohammed Hazabig'un]

What makes you believe Nick's system would be better?
In that case you can just leave your money with a Lic or fund.
The process of building a system and confidence and trust is as important as the code.otherwise you will be out at the first DD.
My view only?

Thanks. Just wondering. I considered it myself, I even spoke to Nick a year or two ago but couldn't be sure as I don't know systems. Like buying a Car but not having the knowledge to know the good from the bad.

 

[qldfrog]

Thanks. Just wondering. I considered it myself, I even spoke to Nick a year or two ago but couldn't be sure as I don't know systems. Like buying a Car but not having the knowledge to know the good from the bad.

I have no doubt Nick's system are much better than the ones i initially developed.it can be a way for some maybe.
Nick' book unholy grail is my bible and i highly value the person...so not negative.
But personally, i would not stick with a significant DD in a system i had not sweated on and know intimately.
One option could be to buy and tweak one of Nick systems?
You start from a good proven code and spend the time and effort to get really familiar with it, add your own sauce to fit your own tolerance to DD, stagnation, etc.
You save yourself time and probably a lot of money.
I think some people on ASF took that way
I can honestly say that my learning process phase cost me $100's of thousand both in losses, opportunity losses etc in the last 10y, on a mix of systems trading, and discretionary trading...
i have reached a stable plateau probably early this year, in time to see natural market linked DD, and a potential historical crash ahead.
This is not a sweet drive.so you could save a lot of pain
So Nick system and a good effort to customise one to your taste might save you a Ferrari (or a Tesla if this fits more your silly money splurge?)
Good luck, you are on the right site to learn?

 

[Mohammed Hazabig'un]

I have no doubt Nick's system are much better than the ones i initially developed.it can be a way for some maybe.
Nick' book unholy grail is my bible and i highly value the person...so not negative.
But personally, i would not stick with a significant DD in a system i had not sweated on and know intimately.
One option could be to buy and tweak one of Nick systems?
You start from a good proven code and spend the time and effort to get really familiar with it, add your own sauce to fit your own tolerance to DD, stagnation, etc.
You save yourself time and probably a lot of money.
I think some people on ASF took that way
I can honestly say that my learning process phase cost me $100's of thousand both in losses, opportunity losses etc in the last 10y, on a mix of systems trading, and discretionary trading...
i have reached a stable plateau probably early this year, in time to see natural market linked DD, and a potential historical crash ahead.
This is not a sweet drive.so you could save a lot of pain
So Nick system and a good effort to customise one to your taste might save you a Ferrari (or a Tesla if this fits more your silly money splurge?)
Good luck, you are on the right site to learn?

You'd be fast approaching the 10,000 hours of mastery Frog, hopefully that pot of Gold is just over the horizon.

Turning on the Computer and letting a System "play" with hundreds of thousands of your hard earnt while you go to Bed like Nick does isn't for me. I already don't sleep too well, too interested in the U.S. Market News.

OT, but former Fed Chair Ben Bernanke hypothesised Crashes are less likely nowadays, I assume due measures implemented post 87, and recent Crashes. Still can obviously happen, but less likely. Don't know myself. In the Fed (and RBA) we trust.

 

[Gunnerguy]

Challenging to control the emotions at the moment but remember ...

it is a drawdown , not a loss unless you sell

‘Time in the market’

If you don’t need the money then you don’t need to sell

6-12 month emergency funds

Patience .....

Yes we are all hurting now but (I hope) this is just a blip in the slow long term grind upwards over 1-5-10 years

Gunnerguy

 

[qldfrog]

Challenging to control the emotions at the moment but remember ...

it is a drawdown , not a loss unless you sell

‘Time in the market’

If you don’t need the money then you don’t need to sell

6-12 month emergency funds

Patience .....

Yes we are all hurting now but (I hope) this is just a blip in the slow long term grind upwards over 1-5-10 years

Gunnerguy

In most cases, for systems traders..not investors, DD is an actual loss..you get out ready to reenter

 

[Newt]

I have no doubt Nick's system are much better than the ones i initially developed.it can be a way for some maybe.
Nick' book unholy grail is my bible and i highly value the person...so not negative.
But personally, i would not stick with a significant DD in a system i had not sweated on and know intimately.
One option could be to buy and tweak one of Nick systems?
You start from a good proven code and spend the time and effort to get really familiar with it, add your own sauce to fit your own tolerance to DD, stagnation, etc.
You save yourself time and probably a lot of money.
I think some people on ASF took that way
I can honestly say that my learning process phase cost me $100's of thousand both in losses, opportunity losses etc in the last 10y, on a mix of systems trading, and discretionary trading...
i have reached a stable plateau probably early this year, in time to see natural market linked DD, and a potential historical crash ahead.
This is not a sweet drive.so you could save a lot of pain
So Nick system and a good effort to customise one to your taste might save you a Ferrari (or a Tesla if this fits more your silly money splurge?)
Good luck, you are on the right site to learn?

If I did it all over again would buy one or two Radge systems, subscribe for a year or two. Did subscribe for a brief period many years ago, but too early in the learning process to fully comprehend and incorporate all the info probably. Hard to know who/what makes a good mentor, and lots of sharks in the water - not including Radge in that category.

 

[Mohammed Hazabig'un]

There's a quote from @Trembling Hand years ago in here: "when losses start occurring I go back to Demo Trades".

 

[Skate]

Looking at the XJO it hasn't done a lot since gapping up at the Open. ROC and ADX still indicating Sell ( thank you @Skate ), but this could mean it'll recover abit after the Aus Employment figures come out.

When is the correct time to buy?
Well, that's a personal decision, one that we all grapple with from time to time. There is a great discussion taking place in "the-official-asx-is-tanking-panic-thread" & there have been made some reasonable points made by @wayneL, @waterbottle, @divs4ever & @Mohammed Hazabig'un but as usual I rather keep my posts corralled in the "Dump it here thread" as my comments are general in nature. My entry points are driven by precise mathematical formulas that at times vary from market sentiment. To overcome this variation in sediment I use "The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" which only measures two metrics "volatility & volume".

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Considering loading up again. Maybe I need a slap.

When do we consider "loading up again"?
To me, it's simple, "when the sentiment changes" - meaning when the bars of the strategy change from "red bars to blue bars" (that I will display later) it's a fair indication helping you decide whether the time is right to "load up again".

Is the strategy accurate?
Well to a degree. "The Ducati Daily Blue Bar Strategy" certainly picks the turns but unfortunately those "turns in sediment" don't always follow through. But in my defense, nothing works perfectly in this game. Manipulation & "logical people" making "illogical decisions" don't help the cause when mathematics is applied. The markets are simply hard to predict but easy to understand in hindsight. The beauty of using just two metrics "volatility & volume" indicates these turns in sediments bar-by-bar. (in any time frame)

Skate.

 

[Skate]

A simple strategy that uses volatility & volume
I've made multiple posts on the advantages of "The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" when it comes to a trading strategy that is simple in design & structure as it incorporates (volatility & volume). As traders, we don't need a fancy strategy to make money. It's exciting to experience how other traders make their stock selection & the methodology that decides when a position is to be entered. Admittedly I don't have the time or unique skills-set to evaluate positions in this manner. My go-to is either the weekly or daily "Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" to understand the reasoning a little better. Coding is pretty straightforward & it's easy to chart positions to understand the logic behind the selection.

Volatility & volume within an up-trend
To understand "The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" the first "Blue Bar" is the signal bar, meaning we enter the position on the next day at the open. We sell the position on the 2nd red bar as the first "red" bar is the signal bar. "The Ducati Daily Blue Bar strategy" is a simple "volatility & volume" picker. Picking the increased "volatility & volume" of individual positions or indexes using only "Red & Blue Bars" allows you to visualize where the price is heading.

The Daily Blue Bar Strategy applied to the "XJO" index
Applying "The Daily Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" to the "XJO index" the coloured bars display the turn in sediment. (in real-time I should add). This "Daily" strategy gets you "in & out" pretty quickly when there is a "move" or when the "volatility & volume" starts to go "pear shape". With this strategy, there is no "guesswork" as it's as simple as following the coloured bars.



For full disclosure
The yellow ribbon displayed at the bottom of the chart is a "caution" indicator displaying yellow when the "sentiment" is not all that decisive or clear cut.

Skate.

 

[Mohammed Hazabig'un]

Many thanks for that Skate

I'd seen your Ducati Blue Bar strategy before and it peaked my interest, even for an "Infidel Fundamentalist".

 

[investtrader]

This is pretty close! I could tell you how I did it but then I'd have to kil ya!