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The recent market trend nearly guarantees most trend traders will be losing money to some degree because when "financials & miners" take a beating, the overall market takes a beating. As a general rule when the big two make waves the overall market "turns down" splashing everything else.



Skate.
 
We all should be thinking about how to "protect what we have"
I've spent endless hours trying to code a strategy to reduce the emotional stress of trading. Limiting drawdowns always come at a cost & integrating a "Take Profit Stop" has certainly helped in this regard.

What’s right is whatever works for you
Cutting losses has to be part of a solid trading plan, which includes applying a few different stop methodologies. I've never found "joy" in using an exit strategy in isolation. During these difficult trading periods applying a "Take profit Stop" will result in an early exit but that's the price you have to pay to lock in profits. When applying an exit strategy it's always a compromise & there should be no reason to select one method over the other than to drive a positive outcome.

Stay focused as trading is so uncertain
Having "sound risk management", & "position sizing" will be for naught if you don’t have the discipline to consistently execute your trading plan. With "Trend Trading", you need to be able to accept that some trades just "don't work" & that's why you need to stay disciplined.

Reposted without permission
@ducati916 has a way with words & never leaves you in doubt as to what message he trying to get across.



Skate.
 


Sometimes it is easier to see a bottoming process rather than a topping process:



Now even a 3yr old can figure out the following:

Someone gives you $120B/mth to buy assets.
Then they say that they are going to not only take away your $120B/mth, but in addition raise interest rates on you and then sell assets to you, reducing the amount of cash that you hold.

When they gave you money the market went up.
What do you think happens next?

The 'Bear' has arrived. This 'bounce' has a couple of days to run technically. That is your chance to (a) lighten up, (b) hedge or (c) go outright short.

Mr Powell will 'pivot' (again) but when that is, is just a best guess. My guess +/- (-30%) in SPY. The NASDAQ is more volatile up/down, but particularly down.

I'll be long commodities and long SQQQ. While I have been long commodities for a while already, I'll looking to get short NASDAQ:



jog on
duc

jog on
duc
 
qldfrog said:
So imagine how much better you would have been selling in january and buying anytime in the following year (12 months)..just saying...
But good on you?
Click to expand...

I see what you're saying but no one saw covid coming. turned into a great time to buy
 
divs4ever said:
buy and hold is for folks earning a healthy income elsewhere
Click to expand...
Buy and Hold gives me a healthy income thanks to dividends which combined with other passive income means I can retire.

Hold doesn't mean never sell but the trigger is not based on the current price or trend. I will sell when a share no longer meets my rules but turnover is very slow.

I run other strategies for profit with some money going back into the winning strategy, some into new strategies and some into more buy and hold shares.
 


Having a flutter
After reading @Cam019 was starting a new Monthly Strategy & @Warr87 already posting pleasing results sparked my interest in having a bit of a flutter. I usually don't trade a strategy until paper trading has been completed but as I've been using "The Ducati Monthly Blue Bar Strategy" for some time it was the perfect candidate to use for this exercise.

What "another" strategy?
I wasn't going to post monthly progress reports for "The Monthly Strategy" because this area is covered by two other members. So why am I posting?

For one simple reason
To display January was a tough trading month with one position (BRN) making all the difference. Only for (BRN) I would also be underwater for January.

Talk about "Luck"
For what it's worth I'll post the results for January & display the rotational positions for February.

We are trading different indexes
@Cam019 trades the ASX100 accumulation index better known as the (XTOA) for his monthly signals
@Warr87 trades the ASX300 universe for his monthly signals
# I'll be a bit different as I'll stick with the All Ordinaries for my signals.

# January 2022 Monthly Amibroker Exploration Signals




# January 2022 Monthly Amibroker Backtest Signals




# January 2022 Monthly Results




# January 2022 Monthly Equity Curve




I have made a series of posts on a Monthly Strategy
For those interested - I have made a few posts about a "Monthly Strategy" with pleasing backtest results that can be found here:

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But it started so well I've had another question - "the strategy started well but now it's losing money, is there something wrong with the strategy?" The answer I gave was along these lines A good strategy takes time to develop. Those new to trading are very concerned about finding a strategy...
www.aussiestockforums.com

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To summarise (Monthly) The few turnkey strategies promoted by "The Chartist" are sound in their methodology. Whether you elect to trade a "Monthly Momentum Strategy" that requires little "time & effort" might be the perfect strategy to have a go at trading, dipping a toe in to start. To...
www.aussiestockforums.com

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You know humans code those systems, right? the human who codes is not shaking in its boots nor dribbling with envy, moreover, most of the big boys use AI and qant who are looking at each other inputs etc, none of these human as it is played within ms much faster than any human...
www.aussiestockforums.com

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Hi @Skate , Just curious if you got an update to the open positions of the Ducati Strategy? Also do you see EOS & AD8 are at a good entry point? @Bazzi "The Ducati Daily Blue Bar strategy" is a daily strategy but I've decided to update the portfolio results after the close on Fridays. (a) As...
www.aussiestockforums.com

Summary
If there is interest I'll post a monthly update to confirm how the strategy is performing otherwise I'll update my two weekly strategies as normal.

Skate.
 



# February 2022 Monthly Amibroker Exploration Signals




# February 2022 Monthly Amibroker Backtest Signals



Skate.
 
Jeda said:
I see what you're saying but no one saw covid coming. turned into a great time to buy
Click to expand...
"but no one saw covid coming." look at my post from december 2019;was lucky to look at this from first seats due to my work in china at the time.
so I did VERY well there and lost nothing overall during that crash.What I did NOT see coming was the vertical recovery...So while i did not lose much , just the systems engaged then, I did miss most of the rebound
What is done is done, looking forward now
 
The monthly strategy also trades well within a few different US universes too (NASDAQ-100 being the main one). But the COVID crash really paints a poor MDD, otherwise it also performs well there. Maybe not much of a diversification, but another market can be good to spread your systems. Admittedly the US and AUS markets have a high correlation. I don't have european market data to test it there.

Looking forward to seeing how you fair with your system. I think dual momentum strategy's perform quiet well on medium to long term type strategies.
 

Not according to your other posts on that other investing format at the time thats the funny thing about the interent the evidence never completely disappears
 
Jeda said:
Not according to your other posts on that other investing format at the time thats the funny thing about the interent the evidence never completely disappears
Click to expand...
That is for the trend system which lost as per trend systems did
Aka roughly 1/20th of fin assets
believe me both supers 100% cash by end december 2019
And the rest of investment was cash gold and put.just filled tax return for FY19-20. And definitively paying taxes on profit.
With tax returns, the evidences do not disappear?
 

yeah 2%
 

We all have the urge to make money
@BoNeZ is correct when he references the desire to have a healthy income. Unfortunately, the good times when trading doesn’t always seem to last that long because most traders focus on what the markets can do for them not what the markets can do to them. When the markets turn down what happens next can get ugly. When the market starts going down, new traders know little how to preserve profits & they watch their profits quickly disappear, hoping that prices go back up again whereas @BoNeZ takes a more conservative realistic view.

Free will seems to be pulling your strings
Those traders who have little trading experience "think they have free" will when it comes to trading but all is not what’s it’s cracked up to be. The feeling that we define our own trading choices just isn't correct because it’s hard to get enough mental distance to see what’s really going on in the markets.

I’m just saying as traders we have a hard time differentiating between confidence & intelligence
Free will is inherently flawed when related to trading as our decisions are manipulated with additional information, not so when you are a "mechanical system trader" as those decisions are out of your control & made for you.

Skate.
 
ducati916 said:
Sometimes it is easier to see a bottoming process rather than a topping process. BTC is looking reeeeeeearlly bearish. BTC losing its vol. mojo.
Click to expand...

Reposted without permission
I'm sure @ducati916 won't mind if I post from his daily article a graphic that sums "Bitcoin" in a few beans.


Trading Cryptos
Now, this is my opinion, if you are new to trading "don't trade Cryptos". I'm just repeating myself here for those beginning their trading journey that they should not start off "trading cryptocurrencies". I'm amazed at the amount of enthusiasm that cryptocurrencies have. In saying this if enough "believe" crypto has value, I guess that's all it takes. I have trouble wrapping my head around that "nothing" has a tradable value.

Bitcoin is built on the enthusiasm of others
Not only bitcoin but crypto's, in general, doesn’t have any intrinsic value but mainstream adoption & investment is showing no signs of letting up anytime soon. Recently I've noticed that professional & amateurish exuberance is slightly waining at the moment. Bitcoin is currently in unchartered territory & nobody knows where the current run is going to stop or take a pause, but the mainstream adoption is showing no signs of letting up anytime soon.

The only thing (Bitcoin) is good for is speculation
The slightest whiff of negative news causes serious price correction but it certainly makes for an exciting story, one that borders on insanity at times (IMHO). Cryptocurrencies are fake coins made out of fairy dust.

When push comes to shove will you be able to offload your crypto onto someone dumber?
The notion that traders could lose almost if not all of their money seemed absurd but most likely possible. High conviction traders will trade it to nothing. Crypto's such as Bitcoin is a fool's investment of those who trade hoping to offload it on someone dumber than them who will pay more for it than they did. Taking a foolish risk with crypto could put you in so "deep" it will be virtually impossible for some to get back out, "they are the ones I worry about".

Summary
If you know the risk & you are a seasoned trader it's just another vehicle to speculate on. The general warning is for those just starting out.

Skate.
 
Reposted without permission
I'm sure @ducati916 won't mind if I post his "quote of the day" as it ties in nicely with my post above. Manipulation goes on more than we think or know, the uninformed & most Bitcoin traders never realises that this practice is highly orchestrated & planned with precision.




Skate.
 




So those recovered coins have been the subject of a bankruptcy claim(s).

A Hedge Fund purchased those claims (at a deep discount) from individual creditors, waiting for the settlement. Settlement is next month, March 2022.

Those coins will be sold.

That could be some major selling pressure.

jog on
duc
 
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