MovingAverage
Just a retail hack
- Joined
- 23 January 2010
- Posts
- 1,315
- Reactions
- 2,565
We may disagree but at least we don't get personalFinally, something we agree on!
jog on
duc
We may disagree but at least we don't get personalFinally, something we agree on!
jog on
duc
T - Try always to be Truthful. Always add the disclaimer, I may be wrong.T - is it true?
H - is it helpful?
I - is it inspiring?
N - is it necessary?
K - is it kind?
Having said that, I may be doing Skate a grave injustice so please don't see this as a criticism of Skate's methods or motives as I have not read all his threads. Those I have read all just ring so very, very familiar as I being an old salesperson from waaay back to the 60s.
Criticism has happily been taken!I've read plenty of stupid posts on this forum (some of those posts were my own), but this post of yours takes the cake Why on earth would you post such a character assassination when you openly admit you haven't read his "threads". Unbelievable!!!
Skate gives more than most on this forum--freely and openly. I'm not sure you even appreciate the idiocy of your statement suggesting he is chasing the holy grail Have you actually read any of his posts ?
Where do these people come from Time for me to down a couple of beers so I can really say what I think.
Again I say, I may be truly unjust to Skate, but there always just seems to be the tiniest whiff of BS here
Sorry again Skate, I know many folks here wear their ego on their sleeves
Continue on Skate, I find this all very entertaining.
We may disagree but at least we don't get personal
Apologies for the late reply, ducati. Wow, this is getting really deep, out of my depth. Need an accountant to explain all these, ever so slowly for me to grasp (will grab the accountant at the weekend) Sorry, no reflection on you, ducati. I'm not in finance, so have limited understanding in these matters. Your understanding of the subject is very deep. Thank you for your time in educating me. I'm sure other forum members have learned something on the subject. Have a great weekend..........So the next step is understanding the difference between NOMINAL and REAL rates. The nominal rate is just the yield, ie. 1.7%. The real rate is the nominal yield less the rate of inflation. So aggregate CPI inflation is +/- 7%, which means that the real rate is 1.7% - 7% = (-5.3%), so a negative yield.
To go to a positive real yield, yields would need to rise to +/- 8%.
My 'feeling' is that if nominal yield rises to 2.5% - 3% (which are still negative in real terms) we'll see a market crash (-15% - 20%) on SPY. Not because yields are showing a positive real yield, but because market participants are warning the Fed that a continued rise in rates will pop the tri-bubble (stonks, bonds, and housing) creating a massive deflation (think 1930's).
Look at the issues over the last 2 days in SPY.
jog on
duc
Ann,I don't like to see you upset.........Ann? Hope you're ok?Criticism has happily been taken!
Not so sure it's Covid....I just put it down to the usual behavour that comes with retail investorsA side effect of Covid causes emotions to heat and ego's to swell. This is not directed at any one person, it's spreading like covid accross the forum.
Oh yes please Skate, let's do that!@Ann your response was very disappointing to read but at least now we can draw a line under the unwarranted comments & move on.
I am not in the tiniest way upset but thank you very much for your concern eskys. @MovingAverage or anyone should always feel free to voice their disapproval of anything I say or do. I meant what I said when I accepted the criticism. There was no upset or antagonism. Sadly sometimes the written word doesn't come across the way it was meant, always a problem, particularly on a forum.Ann,I don't like to see you upset.........Ann? Hope you're ok?
Oh really....all you did is come along and said there was a whiff of BS to skate's posts. That is not constructive criticism--why don't you point out exacting one post of skates where you believe he is bullshitting and I mean highlighting serious errors in his system analysis. Go on, just show us one post! I bet you can't because I think the concept of system trading doesn't jell with you so you resort to ridicule. Here is what I reckon--you have no idea what system trading is about do you? I've looked at your contributions to this thread and there is not one single post from you with any substance or insight regarding system trading. As old Bob Hawke famously said--go away you silly old bugger.One thing I find profoundly helpful is criticism by anyone in any way. I am always grateful as it is something I can build from. Constant fawning and compliments tend to be nice for a feeble ego but not productive for long term improvement.
I get a sense that you are a kind person, Ann. Sounds strange saying this not knowing you or met you (as you know I've been here about a fortnight ago or maybe more) This is the problem with social media, posts are often misunderstood or misconstrued. The above post says a lot about you as a person, Ann..........I like that. Have a good rest, and have a great weekend.....give you a hug, xxI am not in the tiniest way upset but thank you very much for your concern eskys. @MovingAverage or anyone should always feel free to voice their disapproval of anything I say or do. I meant what I said when I accepted the criticism. There was no upset or antagonism. Sadly sometimes the written word doesn't come across the way it was meant, always a problem, particularly on a forum.
Bless, eskys for your kindness.
I have never called @Skate or anyone a name of any kind including a bullshtr.-why don't you point out exacting one post of skates where you believe he is bullshitting and I mean highlighting serious errors in his system analysis. Go on, just show us one post! I bet you can't because I think the concept of system trading doesn't jell with you so you resort to ridicule. Here is what I reckon--you have no idea what system trading is about do you? I've looked at your contributions to this thread and there is not one single post from you with any substance or insight regarding system trading. As old Bob Hawke famously said--go away you silly old bugger.
This statement sums you up perfectly. Sigh...retail tradersI don't need a system, I am able to chart.
Was going to post something on the same line @MovingAverage ?Finally, something we agree on!
jog on
duc
Come on, we only disagree on using old data in back testsWas going to post something on the same line @MovingAverage ?
You probably don't realise this but that link you posted up shows without doubt that you are a complete and utter amateur trader. You must be the only person on the planet that thinks an MA is not a lagging indicator--do yourself a favour and look into how it is calculated. Like I said--retail traders, sigh.I always think backtesting is a total waste of time and pretty much bullsht, as it can be cherry-picked but on this occasion, you ask for a flaw in the system, sure! https://www.aussiestockforums.com/threads/dump-it-here.34425/post-1153470
But we also disagree on the meaning of old ?.Come on, we only disagree on using old data in back tests
All wise words Frog--and agree this thread is above that. But as for your last sentence...there is no data to suggest Covid induces stupidityBut we also disagree on the meaning of old ?.
Anyway let's forget the last few posts, this thread is better than that.
Covid imho can be blamed
For the last 3y, people have been brainwashed to fear what is hardly more than a nasty flu strain.as we have had every decade or so
Shaking in their boots they are wearing face nappies in their cars, avoiding hugs and not meeting friends and family.
they have been sacrificing life waiting for a miracle solution sold to them even before it existed: a "vaccine"...
And once it is there welll, you need another shot, and another one and another one
vaccinated or not, people transmit the disease and weak people die so they hate the unjabbed as they represent the proof it is not the answer, and the unjab hate them as they represent the sheeple and the mankind we are all part of and bear and share the cost
Anger hate fear to ease the denial feeling
What a fertile pestilence compost, so road rage suicide social media rage, even in LinkedIn or here.
We can thank our leaders of both side.
I will excuse Ann and others on that base
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