Dump it Here

[MovingAverage]

This speaks volumes--look what preceded the GFC market crash in Oct of 2007. All those shitty sub prime residential mortgage backed securities--their underlying assets of over-valued housing saw a rapid devaluation starting early 07. The bubble had burst.



Meanwhile the official US cash rate (interest rate)--which you can see below--was consistently increasing in the lead up to the 2007 crash. This ever increasing interest rate certainly didn't dampen the performance of the US market or residential property prices. But once the bubble burst on the over-priced residential housing assets the official cash rate dropped right off. Again, this falling interest rate did nothing to stop the US market crashing.

 

[MovingAverage]

Got Covid--well it's not all doom and gloom if you have.
Why not adjust your position sizing according to your chances of dying from Covid?
Yup, some quant has developed a model for determining your survival time.
So forget using those old school positioning methodologies such as a % of your capital--why not augment your position sizes based on how long you can live with Covid.

https://financial-hacker.com/the-covid-survival-calculator/#more-4224

 

[ducati916]

This speaks volumes--look what preceded the GFC market crash in Oct of 2007. All those shitty sub prime residential mortgage backed securities--their underlying assets of over-valued housing saw a rapid devaluation starting early 07. The bubble had burst.

View attachment 135297

Meanwhile the official US cash rate (interest rate)--which you can see below--was consistently increasing in the lead up to the 2007 crash. This ever increasing interest rate certainly didn't dampen the performance of the US market or residential property prices. But once the bubble burst on the over-priced residential housing assets the official cash rate dropped right off. Again, this falling interest rate did nothing to stop the US market crashing.

View attachment 135299

You have simply confirmed my earlier posts.

Ta.

jog on
duc

 

[qldfrog]

Got Covid--well it's not all doom and gloom if you have.
Why not adjust your position sizing according to your chances of dying from Covid?
Yup, some quant has developed a model for determining your survival time.
So forget using those old school positioning methodologies such as a % of your capital--why not augment your position sizes based on how long you can live with Covid.

https://financial-hacker.com/the-covid-survival-calculator/#more-4224

this algo is flawn in that covid Omicron flavor is at least 50% less potent..last unbiased figures i found.
so if you get the old strength because your country is locking you down and so preventing the "good" omicron spreading and so infecting you with Delta or original flavour, all these figures are compounded.

You need to add probability of getting sick at all..aka in short your age at the minimum.
But if quant are happy to bet ..usually your money...their issue and it could be a vauable tool:
but you should have as minimum parameters: average age of investor, probably BMI and rate of co morbidity etc
It is actually doable but the economic covid impact has never been of any significance, only the restrictions attached to it and these are not science so do not follow rules
we have not had massive workforce wiped and buried, at most 2 weeks off which pales into significance vs current measures, lockdown quarantines and segregation/exclusion
In a free world, there is a model to be built and profit to be taken, in our real world, just resell RAT.

 

[MovingAverage]

You have simply confirmed my earlier posts.

Ta.

jog on
duc

Well we must be saying the same thing--asset bubble bursting not interest rates drove the 2008 market crash

 

[ducati916]

In other words, you are saying that rise in interest rates are cost related which I agree. So, materials costs go up, as with every thing else.

In light of all these, would it not be in the the interests of central banks to keep interest rates down low? So much talk of tapering, causing fears. The Fed will take these into account and dampen fears, by tapering softly to minimise disruptions to markets, businesses, lives etc...so if interest rates have to go up, they'll do it slowly and carefully, preventing a crash?

So the next step is understanding the difference between NOMINAL and REAL rates. The nominal rate is just the yield, ie. 1.7%. The real rate is the nominal yield less the rate of inflation. So aggregate CPI inflation is +/- 7%, which means that the real rate is 1.7% - 7% = (-5.3%), so a negative yield.

To go to a positive real yield, yields would need to rise to +/- 8%.

My 'feeling' is that if nominal yield rises to 2.5% - 3% (which are still negative in real terms) we'll see a market crash (-15% - 20%) on SPY. Not because yields are showing a positive real yield, but because market participants are warning the Fed that a continued rise in rates will pop the tri-bubble (stonks, bonds, and housing) creating a massive deflation (think 1930's).

Look at the issues over the last 2 days in SPY.

jog on
duc

 

[MovingAverage]

this algo is flawn in that covid Omicron flavor is at least 50% less potent..last unbiased figures i found.
so if you get the old strength because your country is locking you down and so preventing the "good" omicron spreading and so infecting you with Delta or original flavour, all these figures are compounded.

You need to add probability of getting sick at all..aka in short your age at the minimum.
But if quant are happy to bet ..usually your money...their issue and it could be a vauable tool:
but you should have as minimum parameters: average age of investor, probably BMI and rate of co morbidity etc
It is actually doable but the economic covid impact has never been of any significance, only the restrictions attached to it and these are not science so do not follow rules
we have not had massive workforce wiped and buried, at most 2 weeks off which pales into significance vs current measures, lockdown quarantines and segregation/exclusion
In a free world, there is a model to be built and profit to be taken, in our real world, just resell RAT.

All good points Frog--was being a bit flippant with that post--no trades for me today so just catching up on some reading . Think I just stick to old school position sizing

 

[Skate]

How the yield curve is sending a recession 'signal' (short 9-minutes video)
Only hours ago (6th Jan 2022) DoubleLine Capital Founder & CEO Jeffrey Gundlach discuss 2022 market concerns, the Fed, inflation, interest rates, the yield curve, and the Consumer Price Index in a short 9-minute YouTube that's interesting.



Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

All good points Frog--was being a bit flippant with that post--no trades for me today so just catching up on some reading . Think I just stick to old school position sizing

Sure .. but there are so many areas we could genuinely look at for influence in trading it is not a per se silly idea.. ?

 

[Skate]

Conviction
A person with a conviction is a hard person to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point.

Reposted without permission
In @ducati916 daily post, there was a quote that hit a chord with me. I have retitled it as "Duc's Quote of the Day"



Skate.

 

[Skate]

Each individual must have a plan for Buying & Selling that suits their Level of Tolerance.

Trade with your Head not your heart..

Also reposted without @ducati916 permission
There is no Holy Grail when it comes to trading & there is no easy & simple answer to be consistently profitable. The best approach to the market is highly subjective. Trading is straightforward, yet many make a mess of it. One of the main reasons that traders fail in the market is because they don’t have a plan, or if they do - they don’t follow it.




Skate.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Skate.

 

[Skate]

One signal last week gapped above the "buy offer"
The buy signal for (SYR) last week was not taken as the price gapped above the "Buy Offer" of $1.87




Purge Notification




Trading Rules
# If positions aren't executed at the open "the position stays open during the day" & purged after the close.

Important
"Never buy at market" you need to be executed at the "Offer" or not at all.

The Buy Rules
1. The "Buy offer" is good for one day only
2. Never chase the price.
3. There are some positions that you will miss (like "SYR" today)
4. Positions not executed during the day need to be purged after the close
5. Do not "carry over" orders (positions need to be executed on the same day)
6. The buy rules are not flexible

The Sell Rules
1. Never sell before a signal is given
2. Sell in the pre-auction at the "Offer"
3. If the position is not sold in the pre-auction wait till 10:30 am for the market to settle
4. If the position is still open after 10:31 am - sell immediately "at market"
5. The sell rules are not flexible

Skate.

 

[entropy]

No on the contrary Skate, I must disagree, the SMA is not a lag because it is a watched signal/indicator, a trigger for the dozens, hundreds or thousands of traders waiting for an entry indicator/signal/whistle blow/ trigger/gunshot/ whatever you want to call the point where the trader commits his money. Many people try to get very clever with MAs thinking they will get an edge. If you are using a less used MA, you will have a less-used entry/exit point. The best edge anyone can ever have is to know when the majority of traders are going to commit to a trade, that is why I use the 'simple' MA as that is the standard-setting on Stockcharts, the 50dsma and 200dsma. More traders would use Stockcharts than any other chart system around. I want to be right in the thick of the herd so I can get the go signal as it happens.

Another point is when a trader is looking at trading shorter trading periods they don't want their money tied up in a stock going nowhere for any length of time, that may be lost opportunities.

Let's look at your system using your chart for FMG, your entry was September 27th at $15.60 opening price. Then you sold and bought back in at $1 above your exit price. So that is say $40 brokerage and if you have a $10,000 holding let's say 640 shares that's another $640 plus $40 not in your pocket. Then you do a final close on December 24th at $19.60 opening price. That is almost exactly three months in the market with four trades and a miss of around $680 along the way. (My calcs are always open for criticism).

Now let's look at my chart using the SMAs as an entry point November 12th at $15.75 closing price. I then sit in the trade until it fails the 200dsma and a short term rising support line then exit on December 29th at $19.28 closing price. Two trades and a month and a half in the market.

I want to make it very clear to anyone reading this, I am not in a dispute or even in a passive-aggressive argument with Skate, I find this sort of stuff absolutely fascinating to look at different styles of trading and charting. It gives me a chance to think beyond my normal roadways. I am always searching and seeking better ways of trading and honing my skills. I may have been at this for 20 years but will never cease to have a desire to keep learning.

Anyone is welcome to calculate the proceeds from both trades, I am over the figures now!

These two charts are adjusted to be identical time frames with each other but with one extra day on the left side of my chart.
View attachment 135145

View attachment 135146

Ann, Skate: Thank you both for this discussion, most helpful for a newby like me!

Both of you have interesting methods and will require me to put in some time to digest them.

A side note Skate: Re your graphics, the red on black looks really good but the dark blue on black tests my feeble eyes, any chance of lightening the blue a little or is there a way for me to adjust things at my end?

 

[Ann]

Ann, Skate: Thank you both for this discussion, most helpful for a newby like me!

Both of you have interesting methods and will require me to put in some time to digest them.

A side note Skate: Re your graphics, the red on black looks really good but the dark blue on black tests my feeble eyes, any chance of lightening the blue a little or is there a way for me to adjust things at my end?

I think the difference in our methods is simply one of me saying learn to chart properly without gimmicks and Skate is saying, hey I am looking for the holy grail where it is automatically in and automatically out which will yield an auto profit of X. Please buy my system and buy my words of wisdom (sourced from the greats like Zig Ziglar) and so on.

I am now at the age where it is quite clear there is no easy way, just bloody hard work. However, after a while, it becomes easier and easier as long as you don't try to support yourself with a crutch.

Having said that, I may be doing Skate a grave injustice so please don't see this as a criticism of Skate's methods or motives as I have not read all his threads. Those I have read all just ring so very, very familiar as I being an old salesperson from waaay back to the 60s.

 

[Skate]

Skate is saying, hey I am looking for the holy grail where it is automatically in and automatically out which will yield an auto profit of X. Please buy my system and buy my words of wisdom (sourced from the greats like Zig Ziglar) and so on.

@Ann, I’m not saying that at all, & you are being unkind to characterise me in that way.

There is no Holy Grail when it comes to trading & there is no easy & simple answer to be consistently profitable. The best approach to the market is highly subjective. Trading is straightforward, yet many make a mess of it. One of the main reasons that traders fail in the market is because they don’t have a plan, or if they do - they don’t follow it.

I have never offered anything for sale
I post new ideas & sometimes a twist on “old ideas” to invoke thinking on a deeper level.

The 'Dump it here' thread
The sole purpose of this thread is to help others gain knowledge. I have a good memory & post what I've found beneficial in my trading experience. The thread is for the exchange of ideas, "not a contest of ideas".

Speed reading is a curse
Speed reading my posts doesn't allow others to understand what I've written. I've found some members can't help themselves by posting to point-score at every turn, belittling or ridiculing others & in my opinion it's not the way forward. We are a community of like-minded people who have common interests & goals. All members who are at different stages & levels of experience can still make a contribution to this thread if they have the desire to help others.

Please T.H.I.N.K. before posting.

T - is it true?
H - is it helpful?
I - is it inspiring?
N - is it necessary?
K - is it kind?

Skate.

 

[MovingAverage]

I think the difference in our methods is simply one of me saying learn to chart properly without gimmicks and Skate is saying, hey I am looking for the holy grail where it is automatically in and automatically out which will yield an auto profit of X. Please buy my system and buy my words of wisdom (sourced from the greats like Zig Ziglar) and so on.


Having said that, I may be doing Skate a grave injustice so please don't see this as a criticism of Skate's methods or motives as I have not read all his threads. Those I have read all just ring so very, very familiar as I being an old salesperson from waaay back to the 60s.

I've read plenty of stupid posts on this forum (some of those posts were my own), but this post of yours takes the cake Why on earth would you post such a character assassination when you openly admit you haven't read his "threads". Unbelievable!!!

Skate gives more than most on this forum--freely and openly. I'm not sure you even appreciate the idiocy of your statement suggesting he is chasing the holy grail Have you actually read any of his posts ?

Where do these people come from Time for me to down a couple of beers so I can really say what I think.

 

[ducati916]

I've read plenty of stupid posts on this forum (some of those posts were my own), but this post of yours takes the cake Why on earth would you post such a character assassination when you openly admit you haven't read his "threads". Unbelievable!!!

Skate gives more than most on this forum--freely and openly. I'm not sure you even appreciate the idiocy of your statement suggesting he is chasing the holy grail Have you actually read any of his posts ?

Where do these people come from Time for me to down a couple of beers so I can really say what I think.

Finally, something we agree on!

jog on
duc