Dump it Here

MovingAverage said:

This speaks volumes--look what preceded the GFC market crash in Oct of 2007. All those shitty sub prime residential mortgage backed securities--their underlying assets of over-valued housing saw a rapid devaluation starting early 07. The bubble had burst.

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Meanwhile the official US cash rate (interest rate)--which you can see below--was consistently increasing in the lead up to the 2007 crash. This ever increasing interest rate certainly didn't dampen the performance of the US market or residential property prices. But once the bubble burst on the over-priced residential housing assets the official cash rate dropped right off. Again, this falling interest rate did nothing to stop the US market crashing.

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MovingAverage said:

Got Covid--well it's not all doom and gloom if you have.
Why not adjust your position sizing according to your chances of dying from Covid?
Yup, some quant has developed a model for determining your survival time.
So forget using those old school positioning methodologies such as a % of your capital--why not augment your position sizes based on how long you can live with Covid.

https://financial-hacker.com/the-covid-survival-calculator/#more-4224

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ducati916 said:

You have simply confirmed my earlier posts.

Ta.

jog on
duc

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eskys said:

In other words, you are saying that rise in interest rates are cost related which I agree. So, materials costs go up, as with every thing else.

In light of all these, would it not be in the the interests of central banks to keep interest rates down low? So much talk of tapering, causing fears. The Fed will take these into account and dampen fears, by tapering softly to minimise disruptions to markets, businesses, lives etc...so if interest rates have to go up, they'll do it slowly and carefully, preventing a crash?

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qldfrog said:

this algo is flawn in that covid Omicron flavor is at least 50% less potent..last unbiased figures i found.
so if you get the old strength because your country is locking you down and so preventing the "good" omicron spreading and so infecting you with Delta or original flavour, all these figures are compounded.

You need to add probability of getting sick at all..aka in short your age at the minimum.
But if quant are happy to bet ..usually your money...their issue and it could be a vauable tool:
but you should have as minimum parameters: average age of investor, probably BMI and rate of co morbidity etc
It is actually doable but the economic covid impact has never been of any significance, only the restrictions attached to it and these are not science so do not follow rules
we have not had massive workforce wiped and buried, at most 2 weeks off which pales into significance vs current measures, lockdown quarantines and segregation/exclusion
In a free world, there is a model to be built and profit to be taken, in our real world, just resell RAT.

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MovingAverage said:

All good points Frog--was being a bit flippant with that post--no trades for me today so just catching up on some reading . Think I just stick to old school position sizing

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Skate said:

Conviction
A person with a conviction is a hard person to change. Tell him you disagree and he turns away. Show him facts or figures and he questions your sources. Appeal to logic and he fails to see your point.

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DrBourse said:

Each individual must have a plan for Buying & Selling that suits their Level of Tolerance.

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Rabbithop said:

Trade with your Head not your heart..

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Ann said:

No on the contrary Skate, I must disagree, the SMA is not a lag because it is a watched signal/indicator, a trigger for the dozens, hundreds or thousands of traders waiting for an entry indicator/signal/whistle blow/ trigger/gunshot/ whatever you want to call the point where the trader commits his money. Many people try to get very clever with MAs thinking they will get an edge. If you are using a less used MA, you will have a less-used entry/exit point. The best edge anyone can ever have is to know when the majority of traders are going to commit to a trade, that is why I use the 'simple' MA as that is the standard-setting on Stockcharts, the 50dsma and 200dsma. More traders would use Stockcharts than any other chart system around. I want to be right in the thick of the herd so I can get the go signal as it happens.

Another point is when a trader is looking at trading shorter trading periods they don't want their money tied up in a stock going nowhere for any length of time, that may be lost opportunities.

Let's look at your system using your chart for FMG, your entry was September 27th at $15.60 opening price. Then you sold and bought back in at $1 above your exit price. So that is say $40 brokerage and if you have a $10,000 holding let's say 640 shares that's another $640 plus $40 not in your pocket. Then you do a final close on December 24th at $19.60 opening price. That is almost exactly three months in the market with four trades and a miss of around $680 along the way. (My calcs are always open for criticism).

Now let's look at my chart using the SMAs as an entry point November 12th at $15.75 closing price. I then sit in the trade until it fails the 200dsma and a short term rising support line then exit on December 29th at $19.28 closing price. Two trades and a month and a half in the market.

I want to make it very clear to anyone reading this, I am not in a dispute or even in a passive-aggressive argument with Skate, I find this sort of stuff absolutely fascinating to look at different styles of trading and charting. It gives me a chance to think beyond my normal roadways. I am always searching and seeking better ways of trading and honing my skills. I may have been at this for 20 years but will never cease to have a desire to keep learning.

Anyone is welcome to calculate the proceeds from both trades, I am over the figures now!

These two charts are adjusted to be identical time frames with each other but with one extra day on the left side of my chart.
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entropy said:

Ann, Skate: Thank you both for this discussion, most helpful for a newby like me!

Both of you have interesting methods and will require me to put in some time to digest them.

A side note Skate: Re your graphics, the red on black looks really good but the dark blue on black tests my feeble eyes, any chance of lightening the blue a little or is there a way for me to adjust things at my end?

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Ann said:

Skate is saying, hey I am looking for the holy grail where it is automatically in and automatically out which will yield an auto profit of X. Please buy my system and buy my words of wisdom (sourced from the greats like Zig Ziglar) and so on.

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Skate said:

There is no Holy Grail when it comes to trading & there is no easy & simple answer to be consistently profitable. The best approach to the market is highly subjective. Trading is straightforward, yet many make a mess of it. One of the main reasons that traders fail in the market is because they don’t have a plan, or if they do - they don’t follow it.

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Ann said:

I think the difference in our methods is simply one of me saying learn to chart properly without gimmicks and Skate is saying, hey I am looking for the holy grail where it is automatically in and automatically out which will yield an auto profit of X. Please buy my system and buy my words of wisdom (sourced from the greats like Zig Ziglar) and so on.


Having said that, I may be doing Skate a grave injustice so please don't see this as a criticism of Skate's methods or motives as I have not read all his threads. Those I have read all just ring so very, very familiar as I being an old salesperson from waaay back to the 60s.

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MovingAverage said:

I've read plenty of stupid posts on this forum (some of those posts were my own), but this post of yours takes the cake Why on earth would you post such a character assassination when you openly admit you haven't read his "threads". Unbelievable!!!

Skate gives more than most on this forum--freely and openly. I'm not sure you even appreciate the idiocy of your statement suggesting he is chasing the holy grail Have you actually read any of his posts ?

Where do these people come from Time for me to down a couple of beers so I can really say what I think.

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