Dump it Here

[Skate]

Sad day for most
@CNHTractor, I appreciate the sad emoji as it a true indication of today's trading. I'm fully invested & dropping 1.27% of my trading capital hurts like a bitch even though the small bend of the equity curve doesn't represent it.





Skate.

 

[barney]

@barney, as usual your posts are spot on.
I'm suggesting
For those who are new to trading or feeling nervous in the markets at the moment heed Barney's #1 advice - for all others go for option #2.

Thanks for the vote @Skate

We obviously work in different areas of the Trading spectrum, but currently see a similar "pattern"

I'm a Muso and "play by feel" At the moment, the rhythm is; Very syncopated , LOL



a) Macro: I think the overall Bull Market is still well in control (My opinion, but may be proven incorrect in time!)

b) The Spec end (where I live) is the first "end" to become fragmented when the "worm turns"

c) Short term (now till end of June etc), I think there will be plenty of pushing and shoving in many Stocks

d) The Spec end is definitely showing fragmentation /slash bugger/damn and other moderate expletives to suit, lol

e) We are at a difficult time of the year (in general) to assess the future


f) Systems Traders should perhaps, "tighten" their parameters!

g) Discretionary Traders should perhaps, make sure they "know their stuff" (personally speaking)


Times are currently not easy ... but they could easily become a lot more difficult

Apologies for my ranting ... It's been a difficult couple of weeks

 

[Skate]

Let's talk about the brilliance of John Ehlers
I should say from the get-go, I a big fan of John Ehlers & his work on low lag indicators. In the context of technical analysis, we are all looking for an indicator that could give us an edge (a slight advantage) when trading & it's usually achieved by our use of indicators or a combination of indicators.

How to predict the future
Using any indicator can't really predict the future but they can give us clues or signs or a small piece of information that something is happening slightly in advance to other indicators. Using any of John Ehlers indicators can be somewhat complicated because of the mathematical calculation based on price, volume, or a combination of both.

A Peek into the Future
John Ehlers describes the calculation of the “A Peek into the Future” filter could help signal cyclical turning points in the markets. Disclaimer: John Ehlers filters can't actually see into the future, but it may provide signals in advance of other indicators. The "Voss Predictor" is an interesting predictive tool that can identify early turning points of the market. Ehlers suggests that simple crossovers of the forward-looking Voss predictor may become the basis of a trading system but goes on to say that it needs to be used with "an additional trend detector"

If interested
More information on the “A Peek into the Future” filter can be found here: https://www.mesasoftware.com/papers/A PEEK INTO THE FUTURE.pdf

If you are really interested in his work
His papers can be found here: https://www.mesasoftware.com/papers/

Skate.

What is the difference between “real trends” and random price fluctuations?
The difference is anyway determined in hindsight. Trading with the trend is touted without anyone completely explaining how to go about capturing it. Trends exist in all time frames & I for one believe a "part of the trend" can be exploited but not the full trend. What traders fail to realise is that for a trend to continue it needs momentum once the movement has started. (That should be rule #1)

I try hard to promote new ideas
Exploiting a trend is becoming harder & harder to do these days because we all try to buy as close to the start of a trend & selling once the momentum has ended. The problem is that we all assume that the trend begins at the bottom of a price curve & ends at a peak, unfortunately capturing that "description of a trend" is just not possible.

The brilliance of John Ehlers shouldn't be underestimated
This mathematician explains his methodology in plain English. (Even his code is supplied). His main concern is establishing a trend & then refining the entry to grab an advantage over most other traders. I believe my previous post about the "Voss Predictor" fell on deaf ears just as my posts on the DSMA Indicator back some time ago. Both indicators are worthy of a second & third look. (Use the search feature if interested)

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

What is the difference between “real trends” and random price fluctuations?
The difference is anyway determined in hindsight. Trading with the trend is touted without anyone completely explaining how to go about capturing it. Trends exist in all time frames & I for one believe a "part of the trend" can be exploited but not the full trend. What traders fail to realise is that for a trend to continue it needs momentum once the movement has started. (That should be rule #1)

I try hard to promote new ideas
Exploiting a trend is becoming harder & harder to do these days because we all try to buy as close to the start of a trend & selling once the momentum has ended. The problem is that we all assume that the trend begins at the bottom of a price curve & ends at a peak, unfortunately capturing that "description of a trend" is just not possible.

The brilliance of John Ehlers shouldn't be underestimated
This mathematician explains his methodology in plain English. (Even his code is supplied). His main concern is establishing a trend & then refining the entry to grab an advantage over most other traders. I believe my previous post about the "Voss Predictor" fell on deaf ears just as my posts on the DSMA Indicator back some time ago. Both indicators are worthy of a second & third look. (Use the search feature if interested)

Skate.

Mr Skate,
It takes time to trial this so while i did not answer i built a dsma system.not bad but not beating existing systems yet.
Will be part of a syatem i would already have launched were we not in May?

 

[Skate]

@qldfrog, it's hard to have an edge trading these days
But on many occasions John Ehlers have freely given us the tools but unfortunately not many traders other than yourself take up the challenge to test out his ideas. Over the years trading his indicators have proven to be profitable for me & I also believe they can be profitable for you as well. All of his indicators seek to give you the advantage of "time" allowing you to entry into a position before the herd.

DSMA Indicator
I have a compete trading system built around his DSMA indicator & performance is respectable & it’s pleasing to see that you have taken the effort to investigate it further. John Ehlers “A Peek into the Future” filter isn't new as I've had the filter in the "to do" basket since 2019. As there is less chatter in the "Dump it here" thread it was the perfect time to make a post about John Ehlers & his indicators . Up until yesterday his "Voss Filter" was collecting dust. I now believe I should give it the same respect as I've given his DSMA Indicator.

Read more about the DSMA indicator here

https://www.mesasoftware.com/papers/DEVIATION%20SCALED%20MOVING%20AVERAGE.pdf

Skate,

 

[peter2]

@Skate 's posts are always read with interest.

You said it yourself, the start of trends can only be identified in hindsight. All attempts to identify them at the time will be an exercise in probability. We may be correct at the time or we may not.

All your back tests have conclusively shown that it doesn't matter if we can't identify the exact start of the trend. If we manage the exits well we can create a positive edge. This is the most important aspect of a profitable trading system.

All attempts at identifying the start of a trend and you've posted heaps of indicators that do the job, look for the same thing, price moving off a swing low. Of all the indicators mentioned in this thread, what does the best job?

Does ROC beat Supertrend, DSMA, VOSS, etc. ? The circular game, rock, paper, scissors comes to mind.
I don't think we'll get an answer to this question as the statistical analysis would need to be extremely rigorous.

I use the supertrend profitably as it fits my beliefs about market behaviour. This belief states that all price movement within 1x ATR is noise on every time frame that is examined. I want to look at price when it moves out of the noise for the first time. Especially when price moves out of a consolidation or a volatility squeeze or after a higher low on multiple timeframes. Include a pinch of high volume and that's my recipe for an entry tactic.

@Skate uses the ROC very profitably. I've no doubt that he could use the DSMA or VOSS just as profitably.

 

[Skate]

I'm over reacting
In the scheme of this year's trading, it's just a slight blip on the equity curve. The month of May could be referred to as a "correction month" to get the house in order for the end of the financial year.

8 Days down & 12 Days to go
My trading has not changed "one iota" & neither has any of the positions that I own in my portfolio - but the equity chart doesn't reflect these comments.




Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

View attachment 124162

I'm over reacting
In the scheme of this year's trading, it's just a slight blip on the equity curve. The month of May could be referred to as a "correction month" to get the house in order for the end of the financial year.

8 Days down & 12 Days to go
My trading has not changed "one iota" & neither has any of the positions that I own in my portfolio - but the equity chart doesn't reflect these comments.

View attachment 124163


Skate.

For my systems, this is more of a cash all situation, a slight reinvest on monday but 72% cash tonight, and no discretionary decision here, nor trailing exit engaged.it shows how conservative my systems are following covid crash
You will probably end well ahead as i am not sure we are in crash situation yet

 

[Skate]

For my systems, this is more of a cash all situation, a slight reinvest on monday but 72% cash tonight, and no discretionary decision here, nor trailing exit engaged.it shows how conservative my systems are following covid crash
You will probably end well ahead as i am not sure we are in crash situation yet

@qldfrog that a good point. Traders do get muddled using terminology & how it applies to a trading system versus a trading plan & trading strategy.

I tend to focus on being consistent
We are both widely travelled & know that McDonalds is a profitable company because of consistency of their menu (worldwide). Consistency & profits fit hand in glove. I aim to be a profitable trader & I achieve this (IMHO) by being a consistent trader. I'm fully accept that my trading results are going to be patchy at best.

Plain speaking
The video below explains in minutes what it takes me over multiple posts about the important step towards becoming a consistently profitable trader. If you don't know how to break down your system properly, it makes the task of becoming consistent with your trading even more difficult. This video features diagrams and a practical task to help you build your trading system. A very important lesson for all traders.



Skate.

 

[peter2]

I'm over reacting
In the scheme of this year's trading, it's just a slight blip on the equity curve. The month of May could be referred to as a "correction month" to get the house in order for the end of the financial year.

I'm so glad you posted that. Phew!
I've been strongly resisting posting similar comments. Trading weekly charts allows you to ignore the daily gyrations.

I was getting some sadistic pleasure from seeing you post like a day trader. @Flipp-Floppe-Skate

 

[Skate]

I'm so glad you posted that. Phew!
I've been strongly resisting posting similar comments. Trading weekly charts allows you to ignore the daily gyrations.

I was getting some sadistic pleasure from seeing you post like a day trader. @Flipp-Floppe-Skate

@peter2, I post in a way that encourages others to read the thread. I'm going to use the word "consistently" till others understand the importance of the word & how it relates to profitability.

flippe-floppe-Skate
The "Dump it here" thread has been very sedate of late & I'm trying to be emotive so others can feel what live trading is really like. Posting my live trading results for the month of May indicates how difficult it is to be "consistent", thus displaying how difficult it is to be "consistently profitable". One look at my Equity curve & my results are all over the shop but it demonstrates I'm "consistently profitable" & that's the reason I made the last post.

The month of May
So far, the month of May is displaying "red" but really the monthly results are still "swinging in the balance" & at this stage it's too early to call.



Skate.

 

[peter2]

Yes, I understand that the recent daily posts provide constant interest in the thread. It also provides time for us to fully digest and research the important aspects that you mention so well.

I know you've been a little tongue in cheek with your daily emotional comments. I chuckle at the "fish out of water" flip flopping but it happens to us all. I've flipped and flopped a few times over the past months.

My recent example, AIS (my current monthly comp selection). I sold after the reduced production report and I'm happy with the sell at the time. My error was not re-buying after the 1st blue bar with above average volume. I flopped then like a stunned mullet I didn't flip into the next trade.



The thin red line below price is the weekly exit indicator. No sell triggered yet. The weekly chart keeps us out of the daily gyrations.

 

[qldfrog]

at this stage it's too early to call.

everything can change within a few days,
but being mostly cash for example as I am, also ensure my weekly systems have low chance to go into significant profit before the end of the month, whereas it is a clear possibility for Mr Skate fully engaged portfolios.
So please keep us posted with the overall gyration this month!! And it feels better not to hurt alone

 

[Skate]

And it feels better not to hurt alone

Boxing analogy
I try very hard not to relate boxing with trading these days but the two disciplines are so similar in application. Trading & boxing both require extreme concentration so you can execute with precision. I can tell you from experience, even when you win your body doesn't feel like it has. Even with good (boxing or trading) skills, you'll still get hit, it's just the nature of the game.

Skate.

 

[Newt]

Think you've been putting some excellent thought provoking ideas up lately Skate. Also confident there are many listening and learning.

Last 2 years have been extremely educational for many including myself. Bit disappointed still not reliably generating profits as large as hoped, but finding your running commentary for May extremely close to figures here. Would rather continue to learn and improve profits than be too aggressive and "crash and burn".

p.s. my primary system currently incorporates DSMA. as Qldfrog has said, can take quite some time to:
- read up
- try to incorpoarte
- debug
- backtest and trial in real life trading
- trust and implement

 

[ducati916]

View attachment 124162

I'm over reacting
In the scheme of this year's trading, it's just a slight blip on the equity curve. The month of May could be referred to as a "correction month" to get the house in order for the end of the financial year.

8 Days down & 12 Days to go
My trading has not changed "one iota" & neither has any of the positions that I own in my portfolio - but the equity chart doesn't reflect these comments.

Skate.

jog on
duc

 

[AussieStockDawg]

Will today be a green day ?

 

[qldfrog]

Will today be a green day ?

Aussies are forever optimistic even in the face of facts so i would not be surprised.she'll be right mate, btd

 

[Skate]

Today was an up-day (pep talk to myself)
Any day I don't lose is considered a good day. When we think about trading, we often imagine how good it feels to achieve a big win or how good it feels to experience a series of winning days or weeks. These big wins are great, but they are relatively rare. The good news is that even small wins can boost the overall profits tremendously. (Little fish are sweet)

Aussies are forever optimistic

What is the best way to motivate yourself?
By being optimistic, a way of staying positive knowing that tomorrow can be a better trading day than today. The win today might be the start of the recovery process (who knows). Down days have a habit of grounding you as a trader. Compounding a string of losses is not unusual when "trend trading" so don't feel all is lost. In reality, trading can turn around on a dime these days.

Is there sufficient time to turn May around?
Yes, even small wins can boost the portfolio into profits.

On the flip side
Additional small losses can drive my portfolio so low that a recovery will not be possible.

Being realistic
I'm not saying all members are average traders but in reality, "most of us are". Being average is "quite ok". Sometimes "luck" is all you need to be a profitable trader.




Skate.

 

[Skate]

how free will can coexist with causal determinism?

I hold that free will is the true position

How can you rightly claim to have successfully proven the existence of "free will" without first disproving "causal determinism"?

Off topic
This post appears to be off topic but there is a purpose that will be canvassed in my next post.

I've been thinking about "Deep thinkers" & "Free will"
After reading a variety of post back in May 2018 between @cynic & @ducati916 - I've come to the conclusion that having an open mind allows you to enjoy both sides of a position.

Do we really have free will?
Our belief system is so deeply ingrained in us, most people will have a closed mind when we raise the idea that "Free will" doesn't exit. It’s only human nature to reject information contrary to what we want to believe. Meaning, a person will believe what they want to believe & reject an idea put to them that is contrary to their thinking. (But academically it's not the case)

A long read but worthy of your time
@ducati916 recently raised the idea about "free will" & referenced an article to read. I have my own view when it comes to the question of free will & personally believe "free will" is due to causation. Meaning, every choice you have ever made has been determined in advance & you wouldn’t have made a different selection if given the choice over again. In essence your actions belonged to an unbroken chain of causes.

If interested - please have a read
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2021/apr/27/the-clockwork-universe-is-free-will-an-illusion

In my opinion
"Free will" or "acting freely" is nothing more than causation of our conscious choices ultimately linked to our belief processes.

Skate.