Dump it Here

[Joe90]

I've recently posted about "The Ducati Blue Bar Strategy" & the "Duc Indicator" both brilliant ideas. Since Duc has dropped those gems, I've been hard at work trying to develop them further but I'll bet you pounds-to-peanuts not one reader is running with @ducati916 ideas.

VIX and Supertrend combined? Not for a lack of trying.

Some more clues or some sample code would be helpful as...
1. I lack a PhD in cryptography; and
2. I am not yet fully literate in the reading of Chalcatongo Mixtec or Egyptian hieroglyphics.

 

[peter2]

@Newt Good point about stock universes. I'd hope by now that readers of this thread would not be limiting their trading to an index universe. The stocks with the biggest growth always start outside the XAO list and grow their way into it.

@Skate selected four open positions in my spec (low traded volume) portfolio to showcase a trading strategy. I must say his charts showed the potential of trading these lower volume stocks on the weekly time frame. This is something I'll include in my thread. Here are my weekly charts of the same four stocks. My blue/red bars are based on price volatility (1.5*ATR(10)).



If we can tolerate the few bumpy starts (losses), the potential is huge if we can hang on properly. The spec portfolio has been taking small chunks out of huge trends. We have to remind ourselves that very few stocks go on to form these huge trends.

 

[Newt]

Thanks for reminder on why Skate put those 4 up too Peter2. Very interesting post. Enjoying the synergies bewteen mechanical and discretionary Skate/peter threads a great deal.

 

[Newt]

My blue/red bars are based on price volatility (1.5*ATR(10)).

View attachment 124318

If we can tolerate the few bumpy starts (losses), the potential is huge if we can hang on properly. The spec portfolio has been taking small chunks out of huge trends. We have to remind ourselves that very few stocks go on to form these huge trends.

Can you explain this bit further when you have time please Peter2? Is the red trailing stop based on 1.5xATR(10) or are you changing colour to red if volatility increases above a threshold?

 

[peter2]

The Supertrend indicator is a price based volatility indicator. Think of it as a line above and below current price. There are two parameters, an ATR(10) and a multiplier (1.5). These parameters can be modified to suit your trading style. They can be either tight or loose.



(1) When price closes above the upper band the bars turn blue and this activates the line below price.
(2) Price closes below the lower trailing line, so the bar turns red and the upper trailing line is activated.
(3) Price closes above the upper line, so the bars turn blue and the lower line is activated.
(4) The huge red down bar closes below the rising lower line, turning the bars red and activating the upper trailing line.

I use this indicator because I can scan for occurrences of the 1st blue bar. I do this every afternoon on the daily charts and each week-end for the weekly charts.

In this chart example (FMG) both 1st blue bars identified good times to buy.

As usual with all indicators they're not buy/sell signals on their own. I use them in context with the prior price action and volume.

 

[peter2]

Now if I change the multiplier to 2.8 (from 1.5) the lines are wider and stay blue through the mid section of the chart.
The 1stBB near (1) is now later and the exit near (4) is also later. This parameter setting has produced one trade instead of two and the one trade is open for much longer.



Which setting is better? This depends on your trading style and tolerance for portfolio heat.

The parameters (2.8, ATR(10)) produced one trade for +2R (wider initial SL and later exit)
The parameters (1.5, ATR(10)) produced two trades for +2.1R, +1.1R.

 

[Newt]

Many thanks - hadn't researched supertrend, so appreciate the explanation. Close to a chandalier trailing stop, but "always in", either short or long.

 

[Skate]

Many thanks - hadn't researched supertrend, so appreciate the explanation. Close to a chandalier trailing stop, but "always in", either short or long.

@Newt i have posted extensively on the Supertrend Strategy & have made over 10 posts on the strategy.

With permission
Matt Radtke from “Quantforhire” recently wrote an article on how to “Beat the Market with a Simple SuperTrend Strategy” & with his kind permission Matt has allowed me to reference his work & hyperlink to his webinar presentation where he describes the process of creating and validating a simple trading strategy using the SuperTrend indicator.

Respectable results
The performance results of his strategy are quite respectable but the real purpose of his webinar was to introduce traders to the tools and methodologies that can be used to develop effective strategies of their own.

Well worth a watch
I have downloaded & watched Matt’s webinar a few times. The slides for the webinar can also be downloaded separately. Matt, in my opinion is the real deal & has done a great job coding the SuperTrend Indicator & presenting his webinar on the subject. For a better understanding of how his simple indicator can be applied to all time frames & all markets with an explanation on the correct application of the indicator for trading.

The AmiBroker AFL code is also kindly supplied.
https://quantforhire.com/2018/08/19/supertrend-indicator/

Robustness of a strategy
At the 39:50 minute mark - Matt explains how to test a strategy robustness using "Parameter Sensitivity" & then goes on to explain the procedure to refine a strategy using the "In Sample" (IS) & "Out Of Sample" (OOS) testing to avoid curve fitting was priceless. I have posted many times that backtesting alone means Jack. The only true test of a strategy is using the results from the “In Sample” (IS) & “Out Of Sample” (OOS) testing that is explained succinctly in the webinar presentation.

Beat the Market
With a Simple SuperTrend Strategy by Matt Radtke

Website reference
https://quantforhire.com/2019/03/16/beat-the-market-with-a-simple-supertrend-strategy/

Webinar download
https://videos.files.wordpress.com/AF3ZeUuc/quantact-1_dvd.mp4

Presentation Slides download
https://quantforhire.files.wordpress.com/2019/03/quantact-amibroker-nifty.pdf

Disclaimer
I have not used Matt’s code in formulating my "SuperTrend Strategy" nor do I use the SuperTrend Indicator as intended or described in the webinar.

Skate.

 

[Skate]

Now some facts & figures of the SuperTrend Strategy
@Newt, my “SuperTrend Strategy” is based loosely on @peter2 1st Blue Bar setup that has been discussed in his thread. The performance results of the SuperTrend Strategy are quite respectable. I wasn't trying to emulate @peter2 results but my post was merely an exercise in explaining to others how a simple strategy Peter applies in his trading can be very profitable.

My previous discussion can be found here:

Dump it Here

Hi SKate , is your total position size 30? Skate.

www.aussiestockforums.com

Make sure you read the next few posts
@Lone Wolf makes a great post on the "Supertrend" here:

Dump it Here

Hi SKate , is your total position size 30? Skate.

www.aussiestockforums.com

My reply to @Lone Wolf

Dump it Here

Hi SKate , is your total position size 30? Skate.

www.aussiestockforums.com

Posting excessive information
Is a real turn-off & exhausting to read.

Skate.

 

[qldfrog]

@Newt i have posted extensively on the Supertrend Strategy & have made over 10 posts on the strategy.

With permission
Matt Radtke from “Quantforhire” recently wrote an article on how to “Beat the Market with a Simple SuperTrend Strategy” & with his kind permission Matt has allowed me to reference his work & hyperlink to his webinar presentation where he describes the process of creating and validating a simple trading strategy using the SuperTrend indicator.

Respectable results
The performance results of his strategy are quite respectable but the real purpose of his webinar was to introduce traders to the tools and methodologies that can be used to develop effective strategies of their own.

Well worth a watch
I have downloaded & watched Matt’s webinar a few times. The slides for the webinar can also be downloaded separately. Matt, in my opinion is the real deal & has done a great job coding the SuperTrend Indicator & presenting his webinar on the subject. For a better understanding of how his simple indicator can be applied to all time frames & all markets with an explanation on the correct application of the indicator for trading.

The AmiBroker AFL code is also kindly supplied.
https://quantforhire.com/2018/08/19/supertrend-indicator/

Robustness of a strategy
At the 39:50 minute mark - Matt explains how to test a strategy robustness using "Parameter Sensitivity" & then goes on to explain the procedure to refine a strategy using the "In Sample" (IS) & "Out Of Sample" (OOS) testing to avoid curve fitting was priceless. I have posted many times that backtesting alone means Jack. The only true test of a strategy is using the results from the “In Sample” (IS) & “Out Of Sample” (OOS) testing that is explained succinctly in the webinar presentation.

Beat the Market
With a Simple SuperTrend Strategy by Matt Radtke

Website reference
https://quantforhire.com/2019/03/16/beat-the-market-with-a-simple-supertrend-strategy/

Webinar download
https://videos.files.wordpress.com/AF3ZeUuc/quantact-1_dvd.mp4

Presentation Slides download
https://quantforhire.files.wordpress.com/2019/03/quantact-amibroker-nifty.pdf

Disclaimer
I have not used Matt’s code in formulating my "SuperTrend Strategy" nor do I use the SuperTrend Indicator as intended or described in the webinar.

Skate.

Amibroker link is dead i am afraid

 

[Skate]

What am I missing?
To gain exposure to the American market "The Motley Fool "website suggested 2 fantastic ETFs for ASX growth investors to buy posted by James Mickleboro 1 hour ago.

2 fantastic ETFs for ASX growth investors to buy

2 high-quality ASX 200 shares to buy
If you’re a fan of growth shares, then you might want to take a look at the exchange traded funds (ETFs) listed below. These ETFs give investors access to a collection of some of the highest quality growth shares in the world. Here’s why they could be fantastic additions to most portfolios:

#1. BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ)
The first ETF to look at is the BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF. This fund gives investors exposure to some of the highest quality growth shares in the world.





VanEck Vectors Video Gaming and eSports ETF (ASX: ESPO)
Another ETF filled with growth shares to consider is the VanEck Vectors Video Gaming and eSports ETF. As its name indicates, the ETF gives investors exposure to a portfolio of the largest companies involved in video game development, hardware, and esports.



The Motley Fool
(a) Are these guys making stuff up or (b) just making content to stay relevant or (c) suggesting that you buy the dip (BTD)?

Skate.

 

[debtfree]

Amibroker link is dead i am afraid

http://quantforhire.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/05/MRadtke-QuantactPresentationMaterials-190314.zip

Hopefully the link will be what your are after.

 

[Skate]

Amibroker link is dead i am afraid

@qldfrog you are correct the link to the Amibroker afl is dead but the "Supertrend" afl can be sourced from the pdf file found below.

https://quantforhire.files.wordpress.com/2019/03/quantact-amibroker-nifty.pdf

@debtfree provided a better response as the Zip file contains everything you need.

Skate.

 

[Warr87]

The Motley Fool
(a) Are these guys making stuff up or (b) just making content to stay relevant or (c) suggesting that you buy the dip (BTD)?

Skate.

I'm pretty sure they just make stuff up. I regularly see them acting under the 'cherry-picking fallacy': "if you had only put $10,000 when we told you 3 years ago, you would have made $xxxxx much!" ..... classic scam-like behaviour IMO. They never mention the constant recommendations that fail.

get a random trade generator, you'll have better luck succeeding .

 

[Gunnerguy]

I'm pretty sure they just make stuff up. I regularly see them acting under the 'cherry-picking fallacy': "if you had only put $10,000 when we told you 3 years ago, you would have made $xxxxx much!" ..... classic scam-like behaviour IMO. They never mention the constant recommendations that fail.

get a random trade generator, you'll have better luck succeeding .

When I started in shares almost 30 years ago in the UK I read Investors Chronicle magazine weekly. Later I came upon Motley Fool. They both seemed good to new as a newbie learning but after some months and a year or two, and my knowledge was increased, it became all too apparent that they just rotated their recommendations.
I constantly see MF promoting stuff and roll my eyes every time thinking to myself, been there, seen that, the same old sh$te again from these guys.
Purely aimed at the absorbent, uninitiated suckers.
GG

 

[Warr87]

When I started in shares almost 30 years ago in the UK I read Investors Chronicle magazine weekly. Later I came upon Motley Fool. They both seemed good to new as a newbie learning but after some months and a year or two, and my knowledge was increased, it became all too apparent that they just rotated their recommendations.
I constantly see MF promoting stuff and roll my eyes every time thinking to myself, been there, seen that, the same old sh$te again from these guys.
Purely aimed at the absorbent, uninitiated suckers.
GG

yea, agree. its sad to look back (before I started to research, learn, and even knew of the kind of investing that happens on here) and remember how i used to eagerly read them. they definitely have a target audience. i'm lucky i didnt have the money at the time to follow them.

 

[qldfrog]

What am I missing?
To gain exposure to the American market "The Motley Fool "website suggested 2 fantastic ETFs for ASX growth investors to buy posted by James Mickleboro 1 hour ago.

2 fantastic ETFs for ASX growth investors to buy

2 high-quality ASX 200 shares to buy
If you’re a fan of growth shares, then you might want to take a look at the exchange traded funds (ETFs) listed below. These ETFs give investors access to a collection of some of the highest quality growth shares in the world. Here’s why they could be fantastic additions to most portfolios:

#1. BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF (ASX: NDQ)
The first ETF to look at is the BetaShares NASDAQ 100 ETF. This fund gives investors exposure to some of the highest quality growth shares in the world.

View attachment 124357



VanEck Vectors Video Gaming and eSports ETF (ASX: ESPO)
Another ETF filled with growth shares to consider is the VanEck Vectors Video Gaming and eSports ETF. As its name indicates, the ETF gives investors exposure to a portfolio of the largest companies involved in video game development, hardware, and esports.

View attachment 124358

The Motley Fool
(a) Are these guys making stuff up or (b) just making content to stay relevant or (c) suggesting that you buy the dip (BTD)?

Skate.

B

 

[qldfrog]

yea, agree. its sad to look back (before I started to research, learn, and even knew of the kind of investing that happens on here) and remember how i used to eagerly read them. they definitely have a target audience. i'm lucky i didnt have the money at the time to follow them.

Yep
Even went to some of their face to face presentations.but really looked like a scam and indeed so many recommendations, obviously some went well or fell less than others

 

[Skate]

Yep
Even went to some of their face to face presentations.but really looked like a scam and indeed so many recommendations, obviously some went well or fell less than others

I wish to make a few comments
#1. There is nothing wrong investing in the two positions suggested by "The Motley Fool" (NDQ & ESPO) other than to say that their timing leaves a lot to be desired.

#2. The two charts (NDQ & ESPO) that I posted previously confirms (a) Technical Analysis can "time the markets" (contrary to popular beliefs) & (b) "time in the markets" has its place when it comes to investing.

#3. One of @ducati916's post allowed me to develop not only an indicator but also two complete trading strategies (a) "The Ducati Daily Blue Bar Strategy" & (b) "The Ducati Weekly Blue Bar Strategy". Meaning, Duc's idea works in all time frames.

#4. The media is not always correct.

Skate.

 

[ducati916]

I wish to make a few comments
#1. There is nothing wrong investing in the two positions suggested by "The Motley Fool" (NDQ & ESPO) other than to say that their timing leaves a lot to be desired.

#2. The two charts (NDQ & ESPO) that I posted previously confirms (a) Technical Analysis can "time the markets" (contrary to popular beliefs) & (b) "time in the markets" has its place when it comes to investing.

#3. One of @ducati916's post allowed me to develop not only an indicator but also two complete trading strategies (a) "The Ducati Daily Blue Bar Strategy" & (b) "The Ducati Weekly Blue Bar Strategy". Meaning, Duc's idea works in all time frames.

#4. The media is not always correct.

Skate.

just looking at ESPO, this is close to a bottom. I would't be buying it tomorrow, it needs to build some technical structure, but this is potentially close to an excellent entry point. It's now on my watch list.

jog on
duc