This is a mobile optimized page that loads fast, if you want to load the real page, click this text.

Dump it Here

Jump to new
"Sell in May & Go Away"
@ducati916 suggests a pattern of "Sell in May" might be the "real thing" or it simply could be "confirmation bias" of traders. To his credit Duc will be putting this theory to the test, trading his "Swing System" in May. Historically, the market declines around May but it could simply be a "lack of enthusiasm" as historically (May) has shown lacklustre performances in the past.

ducati916 said:
Whether or not May is a clanger, just beware, this is now very much a shoot first ask questions later market.
Click to expand...

The month of May gets a bum rap
Market "fluctuations" happen in all times frames but in this game, you need to be "in it to win it".

Doom & gloom is always lurking
Combine that with the month of May & it could be a recipe for disaster, but who really knows?

What I do know
The likes of @ducati916, @peter2, @qldfrog, & @Warr87 to name just a few, won't be on the side lines in cash during the month of May, neither will I.


Hickety-Pickety trading just doesn't cut it for me
Picking just one time period (May) paints a picture to suit the narrative whereas trading results should be the cumulations of the entire "yearly" period.

Farting around can be the undoing of a good strategy
As system traders, we have one job to do & that is to take the signals irrespectively of what you "think" might transpire in a certain month. (May)

Skate.
 
The month of May gets a bum rap (AFAIC)
Market "fluctuations" are all part of trading. The results from my trading in the month of May of 2019 & 2020 - the weekly waterfall chart displays that not all weeks were profitable, but the month was extremely profitable.

One week out of five
The week of the 10th May 2019 was a loser - but the cumulative results for May 2019 were pleasing.



One week out of five (again)
The week of the 15th May 2020 was a slight loss & the 22nd May had a slight win. But in a larger "monthly" timeframe the cumulative results for May 2020 weren't too shabby at all.



Studying the charts above
The second week in May appears not to be a lucky week. In hindsight everything is crystal clear but with trading no-one knows what tomorrow will bring, let alone May 2021.

If you" Sell in May & Go Away"
It's likely you'll miss out. I've looked at my monthly returns for the last 5 years & the months of May haven't been scary for me "at all".

Skate.
 
As per a few backtests posted a few days ago, getting out in may is not statistically profitable.if going out of the market for the next few months, you might get a smoother ride, true but overall profit will be lower.
 
April was a great month
I received a "private message" remarking that Friday spoilt the party: "Steep fall on Friday breaking the triple gain streak".

Friday & every other day is out of our control
I'm first to agree Friday was not one of my better days but in the scheme of things, April 2021 was a great month for me.

8 down days - 12 up days
Using Friday's results suit the narrative that "trading is unpredictable".

peter2 said:
How often have @Skate and I mentioned that when trend trading we collect losers initially. We realise losses long before we see the profits included in our account. Winners need more time than the losers.
Click to expand...

April trading - "Weekly Results"
April was rocketing along quite nicely until the last week. One losing week spoilt a clean run. The capture below displays how the week unfolded.




April trading - "Daily Results"
The capture below displays each trading day results for the month of April 2012. April turned out to be a good month overall but still - Friday was hard to stomach.



Trading the last few days hasn't been all peaches & cream
I'm posting the waterfall capture so others can understand what I've had to endure this last week. Even when you think you have a strong portfolio of stock "good weeks" are never guaranteed.

Friday's trading results really hurt
Up until Friday I was in good profits only to "give it all back" & then some - to finish the month on a down week. I realise trading is not always lemonade as some days are just lemons. I've also come to realise that “Persistence, Hard-work & Determination” (PhD) is a definite requirement in this game.



Skate.
 

fully loaded. my system decided to go from 50% invested to now 100% over the last few weeks. Open profits aren't bad, but I'm excited to see how much further things will go.
 

Last May was month 2 off of the bottom. This May is month 13 of a hyper-bull, with everything stretched and extended. Last year, I don't actually remember the 'Sell in May' being promulgated that much through blogoland. This last week, EVERYWHERE. Now, either it will happen, hard sell-off or completely the opposite, through the roof higher.

I guess we are about to find out. Pay your money, take your chances. My gut says its going to be a sell-off early. First week to 10 days. Then, straight back up.


jog on
duc
 
bigdog said:
3/5/2021 - ASX 200 futures pointing lower
Click to expand...

Pay your money, take your chances
I've stated previously that the month of May has been kind to me in the "past". @ducati916 gut estimate (guesstimate) is that the markets will sell-off early over the next 10 days & then go straight back up (give or take a few days either side of the first week). Duc's "gut feelings" carry more weight knowing that it comes from a position of experience. I appreciate that Duc has made reference to "blog-o-land chatter" to form his opinion which is good enough for me. (Using the analogy - "Where there's smoke - there's fire")


waterbottle said:
All-in-all, it's a fragile market that's easily spooked with declining stimulus.... IMO the next leg will be down.
Click to expand...

"Sell in May & Go Away"
@ducati916 suggests a pattern of "Sell in May" might be the "real thing" or it simply could be "confirmation bias" of traders. To his credit Duc will be putting this theory to the test & "so will I".

Historically
The market declines around May but it could simply be a "lack of enthusiasm" as historically the month of May has shown lacklustre performances in the past.

Tracking
Each day after the close I'll track the XAO Index & compare it to my actual trading results to (a) confirm if the Duc's gut feelings are somewhere near the money & (b) if my trading can ward-off all the "scary comments" that I've recently read on this forum.

Skate.
 
"Sell in May & Go Away"
One day down & nineteen to go.

My trading in May 2021 is not off to a great start
I trust the chart will be easy to read. I'll update the chart daily for the month of May 2021.

The "Skate" column
This column indicates that today wasn't a good day as I've drop (-0.22%) of my trading funds, whereas the Index (XAO) dropped only (-0.05%). After one day & already @ducati916 is bang on the money.

"One swallow doesn't make a summer"
What's the meaning of the phrase 'One swallow doesn't make a summer'?
A single instance of something is just that - it doesn't indicate anything meaningful (yet).

Trading results - May 2021


Let's hope for a better tomorrow.

Skate.
 

@Skate; Out of interest - could you add some columns to track the daily total number of equities held (tickers), and number of buy and sells ?
 
AussieStockDawg said:
@Skate; Out of interest - could you add some columns to track the daily total number of equities held (tickers), and number of buy and sells ?
Click to expand...

"Sell in May & Go Away"
@AussieStockDawg the point of posting my "actual" daily trading results is to compare & contrast this year's results to the previous two years so others can visualise how choppy trading can be when viewed in small timeframes.

Request
The additional request you have suggested adds no value to this exercise of "Sell in May & go away". The results posted are from a series of strategies being traded & individual strategies can fluctuate beyond belief.

Looking at percentages
If you view trading results in percentages, you quickly become conditioned & accepting. Dollars create a series of "emotions" because you tend to relate the value to something that it can buy. Losing 20% of $2,000 is acceptable, losing 20% of $2m becomes another kettle of fish.

Converting percentages to dollars
When you convert percentages to dollars your results take on a new meaning, so don't let percentages fool you into a false sense of security. My trading results today seems small as a percentage (-0.22%) but in dollar terms it's quite a sizeable amount.

Crash & burn
There is interest if May (this year) will be profitable or disastrous. I believe I hold a strong portfolio of stock & I'm under "no illusion" that there will be no "bad days".

With any style of trading success is never guaranteed
There will be good days & bad days, good weeks & bad weeks, good months & bad months but hopefully no bad years!

End of day updates
After the close of each trading day, I'll compare my actual trading results to the movement of the "All Ordinaries Index". By posting an Excel "waterfall chart" allows others to track my performance & contrast my results too their own.

Skate.
 
bigdog said:
4/5/2021 - ASX 200 expected to rise
Click to expand...

It was a good day today
Down one day, up the next. @bigdog's daily prediction has been "spot on" so far (nailing two from two). The rapid rebound from yesterday raises a question for all of us whether to be "in the market" or "sit on the sideline" until May is over, only time will tell or as @ducati916 put it: "I guess we are about to find out"

Uncertainty
At the moment uncertainty is driving the markets in one direction than in the other with little rhyme or reason. It would be handy to know if the enthusiasm can finally stabilise the markets for the month of May.

I've been thinking
The markets are constantly rebounding one day only to retrace the next. Markets that are "all over the shop" is a market hard to trade, but at the moment that's all we have.

In the month of May
There will be good & bad trading days yet to come, that's a given, being mentally prepared for this situation will certainly help. To predict the markets perfectly, you have to realise that the markets are "perfectly unpredictable".

Meaning
You have to be in it, to win it.



I've hit the front
So far so good. Two days down, eighteen trading days to go.



Skate.
 


Good morning Mr @Skate, so I have been following your posts over the last couple of days, I have just had a very heavy workload this week, necessitating some early starts. The result, a lack of time to comment. Today, I have a little more time.

Some background facts.


(a). Currently the US markets have a higher participation rate than at anytime since the 1990's Bull market. There is extremely high retail participation.
(b) There is high margin debt.
(c) There is a low cumulative experience level of financial markets.
(d) The data demonstrates that recently, May has been pretty good.
(e) The 'Sell in May' meme this year I feel has been more pervasive and pronounced than it has been in quite some time.
(f) Market makers exert a high short term influence.

Markets are a sum total of their participants. If enough money (as opposed to # participants) believes that something is so, it is so. This belief can be triggered by the MM in the shorter time frames through their manipulation of prices. This is done, usually, because they require stock, or have too much stock: they are balancing inventory. This can sometimes backfire, as they light the fuse that causes an explosion.

Currently we have a (short term) toppy market. A toppy market is a nervous market. A nervous market is a market easily spooked by any form of selling pressure.

Add to that the constant repetition of the 'Sell in May' meme and you amplify that nervousness. We have an example already of a person, nervous, going to 100% cash. This is normal. What it does however is spread and communicate that nervousness until it is a contagion as trends, even strong trends, start to break down, which really puts the cat-in-with-the-pigeons.

That nervousness is now starting to manifest itself. We will likely see a further attempt at BTD. If it fails, so fails confidence and we will see the panic set in a little deeper, with a slightly deeper correction. At this point, the MM need to step in a steady the ship. Will they? I would say yes (the Fed will also at some point) but if they hesitate too long, they lose it and we'll have to wait on the Fed (again).

So this week will be real cat and mouse of who blinks first as to where we go.


jog on
duc
 
ducati916 said:
So, this week will be real cat and mouse of who blinks first as to where we go. Markets are a sum total of their participants. If enough money (as opposed to # participants) believes that something is so, it is so.
Click to expand...

Today's trading was another up day
ducati916 said:
Mr flippe-floppe-flye: started off innocent with large morning pops, followed by harrowing reversals
Click to expand...

Mr flippe-floppe-flye from @ducati916's "Bull Market May 2021" thread was "todays winner" for forecasting how's today's trading would unravel. Mr flippe-floppe-flye said that he experienced "large morning pops, followed by harrowing reversals". This was exactly how my trading unravelled today.

Good early gains that turned into a fizzer by the end of trade
I was counting on a large win today as historically "Thursdays & Fridays" have a habit off ripping my heart out at times.

For a recap
I was sitting on a very large open profit last week only to give it all back on Friday (& then some).

Trader's love profits it's the dopamine that keeps us trading
It's a timely reminder to remember there are "Closed" profits & there are "Open" profits.

Note to self
Skate, repeat after me, "Open Profits" belong to the markets whereas "Closed Profits" belongs to you & don't conflate the two.



Michael Marcus, a trader who turned $700 into $80 million once said:
“Every trader has strengths and weakness. Some are good holders of winners, but may hold their losers a little too long. Others may cut their winners a little short, but are quick to take their losses. As long as you stick to your own style, you get the good and bad in your own approach.”

Wish me luck
I'll need it tomorrow & the next day.

Skate.
 
Mr Skate,
I was basically even system wise yesterday while they lost 1.3% today, your falls are quite relative not to say benign.
As for Monday your horrendous .22 fall was matched by a 2% one here : so even in dollars term, i am probably worse off.
I would bet most if not all readers would happily switch with your positions ;-)
 
Be done with it
We all do it but it’s a bad habit to get into.

What habit do you ask?
Looking at the trade after you’ve exited. We tend to keep looking at the trade to see what it does next, so how long should we keep looking at it?

We can’t help ourselves
We’ll keep checking continuously, wanting to see if we made the right decision to exit. Doing so, consumes valuable time & energy instead of moving on to the next trade. Letting a position go can be liberation "but on the flip side" it can make you feel annoyed as hell when you get it wrong.

It’s feels good to exit at times & lousy the next
Checking a position after exiting & it keeps going down "making me feel good". But when the position goes straight back up after I exit, it makes me feel lousy.

With Harry Hindsight
Trading has a habit of making me look "good & bad" when it comes to exits, they aren’t all perfect but, in my defence, they are 100% consistent.

Skate.
 
Judging my exit
Revisiting my closed trades, I sometimes say to myself that’s one of my better exits & in the very next breath, viewing the next exit I start to berate myself. We have all experienced that sinking feeling being hijacked by our emotions encouraging us to do the wrong thing at the wrong time.

This post & the last - is not about exits
It's about how emotionally “tied” we are to every trading decision we make. When under the influence of emotions, we surrender our emotional intelligence & this is why trading is such a difficult endeavour.

After trading for a few years
You start to accept “it is what it is” until it isn’t.

Skate.
 

The importance of money
When I was young, I used to think that money was the "most important thing" in life, "now that I’m old - I know it is.”

Losing Money
No one likes to lose money, but it is an inescapable part of the trading. There is no method that has ever been developed that doesn’t lose money some of the time. The simple reason for this is, trading is probabilistic endeavour. This means that for any given trade, there is a probability that it will be a winner & on the flip-side there is also a probability that it will turn out to be a loser. Losing money is a significant psychological hurdle for traders to overcome even though loss is a natural part of the trading.

I'm a good winner & a poor loser
Trading is easier when we all have an attitude that losses are unavoidable. Above all else, "when a trade is on", we are in the lap of the trading gods. The only thing that we can control after we buy a position is "when to exit".

The problem as I see it
Trading against rational people, constantly making irrational decisions, is one reason why I have a (41%) win rate.

Skate.
 
Great post !!
You have read my exact emotions and personal questions for the last 5 days.
I closed out my very large (and long) holding in QOZ on Thursday/Friday and since watched it go up (a bit), and the ‘new’ purchases gone down.
Gunnerguy.
 


The other risk that isn't discussed a great deal is: missing the Bull. This is a massive risk. For all manner of structural reasons, markets have moved higher over time. Now that may change, but for the moment, that is the ongoing trend and it is a MASSIVE one. To go to 100% cash is a really significant risk.

You can protect yourself from the bear. You can't protect yourself from 100% cash.

jog on
duc
 
Hi Skate

Slightly off topic - many people who trade systems (and probably discretionary traders too) have had less than spectacular returns in April compared to the earlier months of the year. The XAO is at record highs just about. What indicator (eg sentiment, Adv/Decline, VIX, momentum etc etc) can pinpoint the change in the market? Any thoughts or ideas appreciated

Cheers
Marty
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

R
My strategy/plan going forward
Replies
13
Views
801
RbNEO
R
Very nice Rain here today
3 4 5
Replies
81
Views
4K
Garpal Gumnut
  • Poll
Financial Independence (Home Ownership, Super, Long Retirement) not possible for wage earners: What do we need and how do we get it?
11 12 13
Replies
258
Views
20K
Smurf1976
November 2024 DDD
2 3
Replies
53
Views
5K
ducati916
Ozempic: Magic Pill or Devils Bargain?
Replies
10
Views
2K
sptrawler
Menu
Log in
Register
Cookies are required to use this site. You must accept them to continue using the site. Learn more...