DrBourse General Help for Beginners

divs4ever said:

OH ! and if i remember correctly the end of the rhyme is .... and come back St. Leger Day ( a horse race that occurs in the Northern race calendars in mid September ) in time to look for good prices in the October reporting season

i think it important to understand the logic first , and then see if you can tweak it ( or abandon it ) to give yourself a better outcome ( for instance you might be content to hold a stock for years even decades )

Click to expand...

Good morning
The St Leger Stakes 2023 will be run on 14/10/23 at Randwick.

Kind regards
rcw1

Thought you might like one more Analyst Anomalie.....
Note the Difference in the PE Ratio figures between TradingView & Dear ole Commsuc.....
Remember that CommSuc Do Not Verify The Morninstar Data Feed for their published Financials......
Morningstar provide the Data, then dear ole Commsuc just whack in onto their web site.....



Beginners Beware...

Cheers...
DrB.

Well folks, today is 18/7/23, so it's almost that time of year again that I call - "The Guestimate Season".......

It's a Game that most Expert Analysts, Broking Houses & Economists play – they are consistently wrong - nearly every year on nearly every stock they "Over Guesstimate Projected Earnings", then when they realise they were wrong yet again, they issue a downgrade within a few months (or Years) that conveniently meets the then current price... (ANN comes to mind after their announcement today)......

Their Inflated Guesstimates continually lead the Sheep up the garden path as they force the prices up, then the same Expert Analyst’s, Broking Houses & Economists do a downgrade, so they can buy when the Sheep have to sell --- SOME OF THESE ANALYSTS ARE REALLY JUST LICENSED RAMPERS --- Grrrrrrrrrrr.

I would suggest Extreme Caution, as history has shown that most of these Guesstimates are WRONG.

Admittedly some Broking Houses receive Briefings directly from some Companies, the problem with that is that the Broking houses then somehow manage to ‘embellish’ those briefing figures to ridiculous levels, they manage to use words like, ‘we anticipate, we calculate, we project, etc, etc.

Broking Houses can’t be seen to just relay the Co Briefings ‘word for word’ as the Companies quote them – that would render the Brokers Reports as “useless repetition”.


IMO, Brokers Exist only to make you "BROKER"......


Don’t blindly follow anyone’s Guesstimates, Do Your Own Research.

Cheers...
DrB.

DrBourse said:

Well folks, today is 18/7/23, so it's almost that time of year again that I call - "The Guestimate Season".......

It's a Game that most Expert Analysts, Broking Houses & Economists play – they are consistently wrong - nearly every year on nearly every stock they "Over Guesstimate Projected Earnings", then when they realise they were wrong yet again, they issue a downgrade within a few months (or Years) that conveniently meets the then current price... (ANN comes to mind after their announcement today)......

Their Inflated Guesstimates continually lead the Sheep up the garden path as they force the prices up, then the same Expert Analyst’s, Broking Houses & Economists do a downgrade, so they can buy when the Sheep have to sell --- SOME OF THESE ANALYSTS ARE REALLY JUST LICENSED RAMPERS --- Grrrrrrrrrrr.

I would suggest Extreme Caution, as history has shown that most of these Guesstimates are WRONG.

Admittedly some Broking Houses receive Briefings directly from some Companies, the problem with that is that the Broking houses then somehow manage to ‘embellish’ those briefing figures to ridiculous levels, they manage to use words like, ‘we anticipate, we calculate, we project, etc, etc.

Broking Houses can’t be seen to just relay the Co Briefings ‘word for word’ as the Companies quote them – that would render the Brokers Reports as “useless repetition”.


IMO, Brokers Exist only to make you "BROKER"......


Don’t blindly follow anyone’s Guesstimates, Do Your Own Research.

Cheers...
DrB.

Click to expand...

i would like to echo , the good doctors wisdom , but add IF you do follow a broker's advice .. absolutely research that move BEFORE you part with the cash

i did it once ( followed a full-service brokers tip) but i did research the company/logic first , so when things started to go pear-shaped , i knew it was partially my fault and MY cash at risk , and started looking for a strategy ( not moaning about a bad tip )

end result i averaged down forcefully ( at opportune moments ) and a take-over at bargain-bin prices crystallized a profit on a high-cyanide residue gold mine in Victoria as it stepped up 'green-mafia tactics ' which also scared me from investing in Lakes Oil at the time

cheers

divs4ever said:

i would like to echo , the good doctors wisdom , but add IF you do follow a broker's advice .. absolutely research that move BEFORE you part with the cash

i did it once ( followed a full-service brokers tip) but i did research the company/logic first , so when things started to go pear-shaped , i knew it was partially my fault and MY cash at risk , and started looking for a strategy ( not moaning about a bad tip )

end result i averaged down forcefully ( at opportune moments ) and a take-over at bargain-bin prices crystallized a profit on a high-cyanide residue gold mine in Victoria as it stepped up 'green-mafia tactics ' which also scared me from investing in Lakes Oil at the time

cheers

Click to expand...

Only my humble opinion, brokers only know as much as we do, virtually nil
What they do know is how to cream the hard earned from us.
My experience is similar to Mr divs, by taking advice from a so called knowledgable "broker" only to see it go down the gurgler, with him suggesting all is well and not to lose the faith.
He lost me pretty quickly as I then started to do my own buying and selling.
No one to blame if thigs went belly-up, well just the bloke in the mirror.

Thought I'd share a few screenshots on this topic

Time to repost a yearly Rant of mine.....

You may have come across Broker/Analysts comments like the following example, QUOTE - "RMD posted its fourth quarter and full-year earnings last Friday, which triggered a 9.3% selloff to a six month low... The stock continued to fall on Monday, down 4.2% (but up from session lows of -6.5%).... The company reported robust top-line with quarterly revenue up 2.3% to $1.1bn. But this was overshadowed by a sharp reduction in gross margins, down 210 bps to 55.0%, which translated to net profit growth of just 7%.... Looking ahead, management said they expect gross margin improvement throughout FY24, driven by a decline in freight costs and reduction in adverse mix shifts. But analysts tend to disagree, with the view that a return to pre-Covid level margins could take several years....... Across 25 sell-side ratings, 76% are Buy rated and 24% a Hold. However, the average target price fell 5.5% post earnings to US$244.00 or approximately A$36.00" - UNQUOTE....

So from that quote (above) you can see that the Company have obviously given their 'calculated guidance for the company going forward', BUT the Analysts Tend to Disagree, so this is where the Analysts try to outguess the company experts - thus we have a guidance from the individual company that most of us accept, and we also have the Broker/Analysts Guesstimate that is directed toward the beginners and the uneducated.....
Who cares what the B/A think...... Companies know their businesses better that the B/A....
Now, Today, as an excercise, you should probably calculate the RMD 12mth Target Price, and the Broker/Analysts 12 mth Target Price, then diary to see who was right (usually the Co) & who was wrong (usually the B/A)....

Anyone that plays in the "ASX Sandpit" needs to understand that the above is how a lot of unmentionables make their living, unfortunately "off the masses".......
During the year, and in particular during Feb & Aug each year, the “The Guesstimate Seasons” begin, Financial Results have been published and digested by all the Experts, where those Expert Broking Houses and Analysts try to Guess what the upcoming Targets will be, (& also what next year will produce) for varying Companies.....

I would suggest Extreme Caution, as history has shown that most of these Guesstimates are WRONG.....
It's a Game that most Expert Analysts, Broking Houses & Economists play – they are consistently wrong - nearly every year on nearly every stock they "Over Guesstimate Projected Earnings", then when they realise they were wrong yet again, they issue a downgrade within a few months (or Years) that conveniently meets the then current price.....
Their Inflated Guesstimates continually lead the Sheep up the garden path as they force the prices up, then the same Expert Analyst’s, Broking Houses & Economists do a downgrade, so they can buy when the Sheep have to sell --- SOME OF THESE ANALYSTS ARE REALLY JUST LICENSED RAMPERS --- Grrrrrrrrrrr.

Admittedly Broking Houses receive Briefings directly from Companies, the problem with that is that the Broking houses then somehow manage to ‘embellish’ those briefing figures to ridiculous levels, they manage to use words like, "our proprietary model suggests, our proprietary Systems Suggest, we expect, we anticipate, we calculate, we project, we predict, etc, etc"......
Each Analyst/Broker has their own versions of 'how to calculate an IV,..... for example – one broker uses a proprietary analytic framework that helps clients uncover value, adjusting for distortions and ambiguities created by local accounting regulations....... It adjusts EPS for one-time events, capitalizes operating leases (where their use is significant), and converts inventory from LIFO costing to a FIFO basis, and also emphasizes the separation of operating performance of a company from its financing for a more complete view of how a company generates earnings.......

Broking Houses can’t be seen to just relay the Co Briefings ‘word for word’ as the Companies quote them – that would render the Brokers Reports as “useless repetition”......

IMO, Brokers Exist only to make you "BROKER"......

Don’t blindly follow anyone’s Guesstimates, Do Your Own Research.....
Cheers..
DrB.

I should remind everyone that my analysis is geared toward my expectations and is inheritantly Short Term Analysis......
Data I use has been gathered from various web sites, and has not been verified by me. All data, calculation and values have been collated for my personal information and should not be taken as correct ......
Before acting on calculations displayed, you should seek appropriate professional advice. I do not accept any responsibility for any losses suffered due to reliance on the data, calculations or values.....
Cheers.....
DrB.

Could not locate a Dividend Forum, so I will post the following saga here….

Let’s talk about Dividends – quite a few companies are Reducing or Suspending Dividends for the Short Term….

Brokers & Analysts are (or will be), crying foul – a very short-sighted outlook by them as they cannot possibly ramp up their yearly Guesstimates – shame about that, what will they do now….

IMO companies that suspend or reduce their dividend payments should be 'commended' for realising the state of the economy, and the situations each individual company may find themselves in……
Companies do not suspend or reduce dividend payments without good reasons, it’s just a pity that the B & A cannot understand that point…..

In previous posts over the past few year’s I’ve mentioned that companies should do exactly that, particularly during the Covid years – companies needed every cent to keep their businesses in business….
Again it’s a pity that most people did not appreciate the position that a lot of companies found themselves in…..


I presume that B & A will now penalise those financially prudent CEO’s by issuing Reverse Guesstimates – that should really confuse the sheep……
For years the sheep have been led by the nose up the garden path with regular guesstimates – now the sheep will presumably have to learn to follow a Reverse Guesstimate….

Which again is a shame as the company balance sheets will invariably benefit from those 'reduced or suspended dividend policies'….

I’ve spent the last week, and probably the next month, looking at each EOFY Report as they are issued….
So far, most are a little down on the past few year’s figures – but that situation will change for the better for the CEO’s brave enough to reduce or suspend dividends – Anyhow, "Who really cares what the B & A think"…..


My point is, don’t ignore good companies that employ a reduced or suspended dividend policy….
As usual, the above is my opinion ….. Use your own judgement….. and remember to DYOR…..

Cheers…
DrB.

DrBourse said:

Could not locate a Dividend Forum, so I will post the following saga here….

Let’s talk about Dividends – quite a few companies are Reducing or Suspending Dividends for the Short Term….

Brokers & Analysts are (or will be), crying foul – a very short-sighted outlook by them as they cannot possibly ramp up their yearly Guesstimates – shame about that, what will they do now….

IMO companies that suspend or reduce their dividend payments should be 'commended' for realising the state of the economy, and the situations each individual company may find themselves in……
Companies do not suspend or reduce dividend payments without good reasons, it’s just a pity that the B & A cannot understand that point…..

In previous posts over the past few year’s I’ve mentioned that companies should do exactly that, particularly during the Covid years – companies needed every cent to keep their businesses in business….
Again it’s a pity that most people did not appreciate the position that a lot of companies found themselves in…..


I presume that B & A will now penalise those financially prudent CEO’s by issuing Reverse Guesstimates – that should really confuse the sheep……
For years the sheep have been led by the nose up the garden path with regular guesstimates – now the sheep will presumably have to learn to follow a Reverse Guesstimate….

Which again is a shame as the company balance sheets will invariably benefit from those 'reduced or suspended dividend policies'….

I’ve spent the last week, and probably the next month, looking at each EOFY Report as they are issued….
So far, most are a little down on the past few year’s figures – but that situation will change for the better for the CEO’s brave enough to reduce or suspend dividends – Anyhow, "Who really cares what the B & A think"…..


My point is, don’t ignore good companies that employ a reduced or suspended dividend policy….
As usual, the above is my opinion ….. Use your own judgement….. and remember to DYOR…..

Cheers…
DrB.

Click to expand...

not under novices ??

but yes my strategies suffered a severe testing in 2020 i half expected a reduction then , but nowhere near the measures taken by some companies

broker's and analyst's opinions should ALWAYS be paired with your own research so you can understand what YOU got wrong when things go pear-shaped

much is learned from ( financial )pain if you choose to go back and study the wreckage

I know I keep referring to “The Sheep” – So I should explain my version of the difference between “Beginners & Sheep”…..

Beginners are usually a pretty intelligent bunch – they have to be reasonably intelligent to even contemplate tackling the Aust Stock Market….

If, however, after a few years, the intelligent beginners fail to grasp the Trading Concept, they usually turn into Sheep, or even worse, Lemmings…

Beginners want to learn everything, the thing is that I need to work out is, where each Newbie is starting from…..

I try to help beginners…..

Sheep will believe anything…..

Lemmings will follow anything….

I try to Avoid, but usually watch what the Sheep & Lemmings do, because I can usually make money off their mistakes…

Probably not a very nice way to categorise people, but that is just part of my trading arsenal….(PSY 101)....

Cheers…

DrB.

DrBourse said:

I know I keep referring to “The Sheep” – So I should explain my version of the difference between “Beginners & Sheep”…..

Beginners are usually a pretty intelligent bunch – they have to be reasonably intelligent to even contemplate tackling the Aust Stock Market….

If, however, after a few years, the intelligent beginners fail to grasp the Trading Concept, they usually turn into Sheep, or even worse, Lemmings…

Beginners want to learn everything, the thing is that I need to work out is, where each Newbie is starting from…..

I try to help beginners…..

Sheep will believe anything…..

Lemmings will follow anything….

I try to Avoid, but usually watch what the Sheep & Lemmings do, because I can usually make money off their mistakes…

Probably not a very nice way to categorise people, but that is just part of my trading arsenal….(PSY 101)....

Cheers…

DrB.

Click to expand...

yes each newbie has a skill-set that they don't know how to apply ( yet ) so they have to honestly appraise themselves as well as learn the jargon and basics , it is a steep learning curve and some tough choices need to be made early

For todays useless bit of info, I offer the following ;-

To tune my attitude towards the rigors of each days Share Trading, I spend the first 10 minutes of each trading day watching 2 YouTube Music Videos….

You may need to use ‘Ctrl + Click” to open the Vids….

First - This YouTube Music Video called “The Hu Wolf Totem + Mongol Empire Mongolian Throat Singing” has a great background beat, depicts the battle of Temujin VS Jamukha.(from the Movie “Mongol: The Rise of Genghis Khan”)….

Temujin and Jamukha were childhood blood brothers. One who win this battle will become the ruler of Mongolia. And of course the winner was Temujin. Then he becomes Genghis Khan….

The attitudes I gain from this Video are as follows, Meticulous Planning, maintaining a Calm Approach, having a Ruthless Killer Instinct, accepting causalities, and realising when to Retreat….

The Hu Wolf Totem + Mongol Empire Mongolian Throat Singing - YouTube



The Second YouTube Music Video is the Kenny Rogers Anthem, “The Gambler”…. (With the words)

The benefits here are much more subtle, such as, the psychological approach necessary for Share Trading, along with Temperament and understanding…

kenny rogers the gambler - Google Search


Then I get my Swords & Cards ready for the days carnage….

Cheers....
DrB.

What are you, a teenager fantasizing in your bedroom?

finicky said:

What are you, a teenager fantasizing in your bedroom?

Click to expand...

... well i am off the ultra strong coffee ..

and prefer to be a bundle of anxiety , and hyper-stretched nerves ( so my decisions are shorter and reflexes quicker ), but then i catch a few falling knives

DrBourse said:

I know I keep referring to “The Sheep” – So I should explain my version of the difference between “Beginners & Sheep”…..

Beginners are usually a pretty intelligent bunch – they have to be reasonably intelligent to even contemplate tackling the Aust Stock Market….

If, however, after a few years, the intelligent beginners fail to grasp the Trading Concept, they usually turn into Sheep, or even worse, Lemmings…

Beginners want to learn everything, the thing is that I need to work out is, where each Newbie is starting from…..

I try to help beginners…..

Sheep will believe anything…..

Lemmings will follow anything….

I try to Avoid, but usually watch what the Sheep & Lemmings do, because I can usually make money off their mistakes…

Probably not a very nice way to categorise people, but that is just part of my trading arsenal….(PSY 101)....

Cheers…

DrB.

Click to expand...

Oh Dr B you are such a gentle soul

farmerge said:

Oh Dr B you are such a gentle soul

Click to expand...

sadly the market can be less so

divs4ever said:

sadly the market can be less so

Click to expand...

The market cutting to cruel

farmerge said:

The market cutting to cruel

Click to expand...

After seeing mostly red on my watchlist today, that wonderfully wise sage, the blke in the mirror, he's been absent of recent times, thought WC8 might be worth a squizz and suggested a buy in at 0.705 Finished the day at 0.72 so his crystal ball gazing was good.