Dr Doom says: Bail out now!!!

[wayneL]

Ive been on here and Reefcap since inception---pretty well.

EVERY year without exception the market is about to crash.
One year they will be right but for all the others------

This time is different though

 

[Gundini]

This time is different though

Uh oh, there's the warning I've been waiting for, hehehe.....

but on a serious note, I'm a little concerned. So much so I am holding nothing overnight. Got smashed in May, bashed in Oil last couple of weeks, and spending my time day trading. I can't afford not to be patient!

How frustrating, waiting for something that may not happen!

 

[chicken]

This time is different though

Waynel...he also said Gold will go to $50000 an ozs of Gold...he sometimes gets it right...is not allways on the mark..and yes its different now...there is a fight for the commodities...like Nickel etc...also hes been saying this for the last 4 years...so how clever is the man...US$ will be devalued...yes but a complete crash..maybe one day..WHEN ,everyone likes to know..its like predicting the next 3 worldwar...one day perhaps

 

[Gundini]

Ive been on here and Reefcap since inception---pretty well.

EVERY year without exception the market is about to crash.
One year they will be right but for all the others------

True, as they say, "Even a broken clock is right twice a day"

 

[noirua]

Waynel...he also said Gold will go to $50000 an ozs of Gold...he sometimes gets it right...is not allways on the mark..and yes its different now...there is a fight for the commodities...like Nickel etc...also hes been saying this for the last 4 years...so how clever is the man...US$ will be devalued...yes but a complete crash..maybe one day..WHEN ,everyone likes to know..its like predicting the next 3 worldwar...one day perhaps

???????????? $50,000 an ounce ?????????????

 

[Uncle Festivus]

No, I recall his words were that it will keep parity with the Dow Jones due to fiat money creation. So, if the dow should go to 50k (due to continued money creation) then maybe gold could go to 50k also. It's all relative. He's saying that as a currency that intrinsically cannot be created at will then it should appreciate in proportion to the amout of excess fiat liquidity created. For eg, the real inflation rate in the UK is supposedly around 10%, so the gold price in pounds should reflect this diminition in purchasing power by going up, which it has. I'm no expert and someone else may be able to put it a better way, but basically the gold price (when it's got it's currency hat on) reflects the inflation rate of money supply.

As long as they (central banks) keep creating excess money, gold will always appreciate I guess?.

Gold’s price reflects the true devaluation of fiat currencies and remains our best guardian against the ravages of fiat money inflation.

 

[Smurf1976]

An American Guru, Bob Beckman, forecast a collapse in property prices, particularly in the U.K. He started in 1982 and kept on repeating the argument, as prices rose over 100%. Then, in 1988, a slide began and the eventual fall was over 30% by 1992. Was his forecast correct?
Inflation was high during that period, between 5% per annum and 9% per annum.

At least he was more correct than the "property always goes up" types.

Just as well "it's different this time" and the global real estate bubble won't turn into a global house price crash. Well, at least not outside of the US, Sydney, outer suburbs of Melbourne, Hobart or anywhere else that's already seen falls.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

At least he was more correct than the "property always goes up" types.

Just as well "it's different this time" and the global real estate bubble won't turn into a global house price crash. Well, at least not outside of the US, Sydney, outer suburbs of Melbourne, Hobart or anywhere else that's already seen falls.

Smurf, how do you know this? Personally I don't think property in the above markets has not seen any sort of bottom yet, with rumblings of a further interest rate hike to come. Combine that with a rent squeeze & the poor old consumer will be doing it hard, going forward, as they say.

As for Faber, he's a bit different from the rest, and I'm sure he wouldn't like being compared to some of the other commentators mentioned here, ie each to their own. He actually invests his & other peoples money according to his research & beliefs, and he's still around and has done very well for all concerned.

 

[wayneL]

Smurf, how do you know this? Personally I don't think property in the above markets has not seen any sort of bottom yet, with rumblings of a further interest rate hike to come. Combine that with a rent squeeze & the poor old consumer will be doing it hard, going forward, as they say.

As for Faber, he's a bit different from the rest, and I'm sure he wouldn't like being compared to some of the other commentators mentioned here, ie each to their own. He actually invests his & other peoples money according to his research & beliefs, and he's still around and has done very well for all concerned.

Hey Uncle,

You have to watch out for tongues in cheeks around here.

 

[BSD]

The 'doomed fiat currency' bull case for gold is one of the most overstated and consistently wrong forecasts of the last thirty years. Why do all the fiat fear mongers get so down on the USD and not the Euro or GBP?

In my view, with the extremely limited 'real' or 'industrial' uses for gold - it is also only a valuable commodity for its 'percieved' value; very similar to a US dollar or Euro note.

Outside of the perception of value - gold is just a pretty rock.

Fiat currencies will prevail. If you want a global depression, moving back to backing all currency with pretty rocks would be a good way to start.

I hold gold and have a relative bullish view on it due to a moderately bearish view on USD - but i prefer copper, oil, nickel, corn etc because they have actual uses for necessity.

I just don't see the USD imploding.

Remember that unlike most countries, the US borrows in its own currency.

When the USD tanks, their debts fall in relative value too. The US still has a manufacturing and technology export base of massive size that earns heaps of JPY/AUD/EUR/GBP able to maintain the debt in devalued USD.

The USD is already weak enough to have a reasonably low purchasing power parity compared to other currencies - particularly those of Europe. Even the Aussie battler buys twice as much against the USD as it did five years ago.

I personally believe one of the most overvalued currencies to be the UK pound. Particularly when focussing on PPP

Can anyone explain to me the reason for the incredibly expensive nature of the pound?

The UK is not exactly an economic powerhouse anymore and the London property market has recently deflated from a huge bubble without disaster.

JPY and RMB would be my preferred currencies to hold.

 

[Smurf1976]

Hey Uncle,

You have to watch out for tongues in cheeks around here.

Absolutely tongue in cheek there. Might have to be a little more careful posting...

I certainly don't think the US market is anywhere near a bottom judging by informed comments on the subject. As for Australia, the middle suburbs of Hobart seem to be very slowly falling for the SAME TYPE of house even though median prices of houses actually selling are rising (since poorer quality simply isn't selling, thus masking the fall in the statistics). It's hard to believe that the market would be doing much better elsewhere whilst interest rates continue their rising trend and wage inflation is low.

 

[wayneL]

The 'doomed fiat currency' bull case for gold is one of the most overstated and consistently wrong forecasts of the last thirty years. Why do all the fiat fear mongers get so down on the USD and not the Euro or GBP?

In my view, with the extremely limited 'real' or 'industrial' uses for gold - it is also only a valuable commodity for its 'percieved' value; very similar to a US dollar or Euro note.

Outside of the perception of value - gold is just a pretty rock.

Fiat currencies will prevail. If you want a global depression, moving back to backing all currency with pretty rocks would be a good way to start.

I hold gold and have a relative bullish view on it due to a moderately bearish view on USD - but i prefer copper, oil, nickel, corn etc because they have actual uses for necessity.

I just don't see the USD imploding.

Remember that unlike most countries, the US borrows in its own currency.

When the USD tanks, their debts fall in relative value too. The US still has a manufacturing and technology export base of massive size that earns heaps of JPY/AUD/EUR/GBP able to maintain the debt in devalued USD.

The USD is already weak enough to have a reasonably low purchasing power parity compared to other currencies - particularly those of Europe. Even the Aussie battler buys twice as much against the USD as it did five years ago.

I personally believe one of the most overvalued currencies to be the UK pound. Particularly when focussing on PPP

Can anyone explain to me the reason for the incredibly expensive nature of the pound?

The UK is not exactly an economic powerhouse anymore and the London property market has recently deflated from a huge bubble without disaster.

JPY and RMB would be my preferred currencies to hold.

I think I agree with most of this. Particularly the stratospheric value of the pound.

If the USD is in trouble, so is the AUD, GBP (particularly) and the Euro etc.

Net result = 0 ( apart from normal fluctuations)

I can see all western economies imploding however... There are several routes and time frames, but ultimately a cleansing depression is inevitable. (not necessarily 1929 scale though)

 

[wayneL]

Absolutely tongue in cheek there. Might have to be a little more careful posting...

I certainly don't think the US market is anywhere near a bottom judging by informed comments on the subject. As for Australia, the middle suburbs of Hobart seem to be very slowly falling for the SAME TYPE of house even though median prices of houses actually selling are rising (since poorer quality simply isn't selling, thus masking the fall in the statistics). It's hard to believe that the market would be doing much better elsewhere whilst interest rates continue their rising trend and wage inflation is low.

Agree, this is only the beginning of the beginning of RE problems.

 

[Dukey]

G'day folks
Have been studying this thread and the articles linked earlier, and other bearish threads on ASF (ie Commodies tipped to crash thread).

Certainly the bears are starting to growl louder recently. If we buy the 'crash just around the corner' theory, or just wanna be prepared for the eventuality, what's the best strategy to adopt?

Withdraw from market and park funds in what?? Cash or Bonds or Gold Bullion?

How much to withdraw from market?? - 50%? 80%?. All down to personal taste/choice and how heavy the bear on your back is I guess?

Are there any listed funds/stocks that might be useful as insurance against a crash??

Any ideas about these important ?? folks. Whats your safety strategy look like?

(Sorry - so many questions and no answers from me as usual... but I hope they are useful questions?)

-dukey

 

[reece55]

Dukey
If a great bear market comes, I won't be looking to park my money - I will aggressively be going short. Markets in a bear trend can create terrific gains for the short seller. Obviously, this is a strategy that must be used with caution - but if the chart reads right, you can make just as much money down as up.

Cheers

 

[Dukey]

Must admit - I dunno much about shorting.
& I Guess I consider myself an investor, rather than a trader. Don't have the time or inclination to devote myself.
How much 'work' / 'time' would go into your average 'short' trade? (as opposed to a regular trade).

 

[kerosam]

i think there are listed companies that go short ... one is PMC & CDM... the former is priced at a premium at the moment and the other is more or less to its NTA.

i don;t hold any of these two but might buy into them very soon

 

[clowboy]

i think there are listed companies that go short ... one is PMC & CDM... the former is priced at a premium at the moment and the other is more or less to its NTA.

i don;t hold any of these two but might buy into them very soon

PMC is also an unlisted managed fund (mirrored to the listed one, actually it's the other way round). The unlisted obviously is in line with the NTA, but it is 25k min investment (prob why the listed one is at a premium).

Good track record too.

 

[fleathedog]

Dukey.

With the market at record highs you have two basic options:

1, if your investments are giving you too much stress you should sell/take profits now and just sit back and reassess everything without the stress of having money on the line.

2, if you're happy with your inivestments for the long term, hold on and buy more IF a downturn comes. If you do no 2, you MUST be disciplined enough to actually not panic during any bear market and sell, and buy more shares when everyone else is selling.

The my 2 cents. Hope that helps!!

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Sorry bout that smurf, maybe need a . (So you're walkin beside me then ).

My experience regarding investing when there is a 'crash imminent' (any time in the last 3 years?). Go with the herd, follow the trend, take profits.
Maybe re-invest a smaller amount each time ie commit lesser amounts to any particular trade, keep a very close eye on stop loss levels.

Not too sure about averaging down though, each downturn/correction from these levels to be viewed as a possible end to the 'bull' market?. For AUS, employment is the key here, so may have a bit of life left in the stock market from super billions?.

Going short - best instrument to do so for me is CFD's, best instrument to loose lot's of money = CFD's. Pick a CFD (casino?) provider with GSL's, money well spent.

My outlook = commodities are on the nose a bit, hot money has to go somewhere, maybe to banks and staples eg WOW, Coles. Uranium = tech bubble repeat, get in, make money, get out. The trouble is not many stocks that show potential sp appreciation these days?.

The risk reward ratio not in our favour I don't think.

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Gold - yep, just nice, shiny bits of metal, but when the fiat system eventually plays it's final hurrah then gold will initially be THE only currency/game in town, followed by food. In his own words, The Calm Before The Storm - Bernakes' speech here

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British pound - Paul van Eedens view here , for the real story.