Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Dr Doom says: Bail out now!!!

Uncle - thanks for the links.


The parlous state of the forecasts of US finances are a disgrace and a reflection on the ineptitude of the administration from the last six years.

But there is plenty of time for a decent government to raise some taxes and even stop spending the GDP of Australia on blowing up other countries.


The GBP story is interesting too. The interest rate chasing funds have been the major force in moving currencies for a long time now and many reserves do not even publish a M1,2,3,4 number.

Look at the strength of the NZD - totally related to interest rate chasing money.

Despite whether it is correct based on what we all learnt from 1970s text books about money supply, inflation and currency movements - the current reality is that currencies move with interest rates as a major factor.

I still think the GBP is hugely overpriced despite the interest rate position when compared with the AUD.
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The state of the US finances still does not explain why fiat currency is worse value than gold - which derives a massive majority of its value from fiat.

What about the AUD Gold rate - which is more important to most on this forum?

The Australian government has NO DEBT and pays 6% - surely the AUD is a better bet than gold which pays no income.

Gold bugs are gold bugs I guess - interesting they mainly term their argument relative to the USD though.
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As an aside, I just looked into Paul's "Track Record":

Paul van Eeden joined Global Resource Investments in California as a stockbroker and analyst in mid 1996. Within three years his clients had more than six million dollars invested with him.

As a result of his analysis of the gold market, Paul's clients were well positioned when the gold price turned around. By 2002 his clients' assets had increased by well over five hundred percent, to over forty two million dollars.


I can see why he went to writing newsletters.

A private client adviser who only managed to raise $6m of funds under management in three years and $42m in six would get sacked by any firm as an incredible underperformer.


HOOCHY MAMA
 
fleathedog said:
2, if you're happy with your inivestments for the long term, hold on and buy more IF a downturn comes. If you do no 2, you MUST be disciplined enough to actually not panic during any bear market and sell, and buy more shares when everyone else is selling.

flea,

Any opportunity to trot out one of my stock of cartoons: :D
 

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Hi BSD,

Plenty of time...... running out fast......must get re-elected........do not raise taxes...... let the next turkey deal with it........ :rolleyes: never gonna happen! Congress keeps raising the budget ceiling to record levels....

Australia's problem is with private debt, currently per capita one of the highest in the western world.

All central banks are inflating their money supply, reducing the value of the dollar in your pocket every day. Gold as a currency has been a better hedge against this for the last 6 years, and will continue to be as long as money supply is continually inflated because of weak politicians. It's a case of which can be created faster, gold or paper dollars.

Pauls track record speaks for itself, by my calcs turning $6m into $42m in 6 years is pretty darn good?. Sounds like you agree with him regards the pound overvaluation?.

UF
 
Dr Marc Faber talking on Bloomberg today, has forecast a drop of 30% to 40% in the Chinese and Indian stock markets.
 
noirua said:
Dr Marc Faber talking on Bloomberg today, has forecast a drop of 30% to 40% in the Chinese and Indian stock markets.

Can you please quote from that article where he states that he has forecast a drop of 30 - 40 percent in those two markets??? I can't find that quote anywhere.
 
So if they drop 30% that will be equivalent to the 3% drop we had recently, they grew at approx 130% in 6 months didn't they? So realistically that drop is not that bad if it does happen and i do mean IF.
 
noirua said:
Dr Marc Faber talking on Bloomberg today, has forecast a drop of 30% to 40% in the Chinese and Indian stock markets.

Didnt India already have a sizeable drop during last year?
And then it ran again?
 
the barry said:
Can you please quote from that article where he states that he has forecast a drop of 30 - 40 percent in those two markets??? I can't find that quote anywhere.

Hi, You will be able to listen to Marc Faber being interviewed today on Bloomberg TV. Will be repeated many times as it has been on the Bernard Lo Programme already.

Live Link to Bloomberg TV: http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=LiveBTV#
 
Latest from Dr Marc Faber -

As a keen observer of economic, social and financial trends, I think we are moving toward one of the most fascinating period in economic history. It will also be a time during which most investors will end up with huge losses.

Let me explain. The shares of most sub-prime lenders already peaked out in late 2004. Throughout 2006, it became increasingly evident that conditions in the housing market were deteriorating. But investors kept on buying these stocks because the P/Es were low and analysts continued to recommend them, and because the Fed kept on telling investors that the worst in the housing market was over!

But consider the following. The news is always favorable near market tops or when a sector is about to peak out. Most analysts will also be most bullish about the prospect of a sector right at the very top of the market - remember high tech stocks in 2000?

Also, near stock market tops the price-to-earnings ratio is frequently low because the problem lies less with the 'price' than with the 'earnings'. In 1929, the US stock market sold for less than 14-times earnings. But then earnings collapsed and stocks plunged by 90%.

Avoiding losses
So, how should an investor navigate in these difficult times? In the future, avoiding losses will be more important than making huge gains. Because of a weaker housing market and problems in the sub-prime industry one source of 'excess liquidity' has dried up.

And while it may be premature to conclude that credit problems in the sub-prime lending market will spread, the risks that tighter credit conditions will spread throughout the capital market have increased. And the first casualties of less international liquidity would be emerging markets.

The Indian stock market has had a huge run since 2003 - admittedly from a very depressed level. In 2007, the Sensex increased until February 9th by 6.9% but then suddenly dropped by 7.4% leaving the market down 1.2% year-to-date. Similarly, the Chinese stock market has also all the symptoms of a stock mania and exiting would be prudent.

Gold to outperform
With very few exceptions, equity markets are over-bought, fully valued and vulnerable to some disappointments. For asset inflation aficionados, gold and silver should under any scenario (tight or easy money) continue to out-perform US financial assets.

Still, whereas I believe that in the long term the Fed will have no other option than to print money and embark again on a string of aggressive interest rate cuts, weakness in one market - housing - could now spread to other asset markets - including industrial commodities and precious metals. But at the same time, there is little doubt that Mr. Bernanke is precious metals' best friend.

After a disappointing 2006, Japanese equities could surprise in 2007 on a relative basis. Compared to the US households Japanese investors have only a very small percentage of their financial assets in equities. Also, the Japanese Yen has become inexpensive for exporters.
 
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