Dr Doom says: Bail out now!!!

[noirua]

Following the predictions of Doctor Doom, markets have continued down in Europe today. October is Marc Faber's prediction on when to buy back in, but, where will markets be then?

The Merrill Lynch World Mining IT has just 60 cents to got to register a 33% fall, now down 28%. Major mining stocks see falls from 5% to 12% in London today, as the bears position themselves to feed at the NYSE opening.

We are in the position predicted by Doctor Doom; That stocks will recover, but fail to reach previous highs and then descend once more.

 

[noirua]

Marc Faber has spoken yesterday on his views for the US Economy, US Equities, Gold, Agricultural Commodities, Commodities including oil, Emerging Markets, and Asia including Japan:

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vrdrMyG1GzZk.asf

 

[TheRage]

Could you please give a brief summary. I am running Dial-up at work and it drops out way too much.

Cheers
Ryan

 

[Sean K]

Could you please give a brief summary. I am running Dial-up at work and it drops out way too much.

Cheers
Ryan

He's predicting a severe US led correction shortly because the US is printing and spending money it does not have and he's recommending you buy PMs.

 

[nizar]

He's predicting a severe US led correction shortly because the US is printing and spending money it does not have and he's recommending you buy PMs.

Yeh theres a few economists that have been saying this for ages.
Doug Casey gave an interview about the same sort of thing about 1 year ago.

They say these gurus arent wrong, just early.

In this game though, being early is just as bad as being wrong. Just like how missing out on gains is the same as losing money.

 

[Sean K]

Could you please give a brief summary. I am running Dial-up at work and it drops out way too much.

Cheers
Ryan

He's got a brain the size of a small planet! Or, he's just making me seem pea brained.....

 

[theasxgorilla]

Indeed, I could watch/listen to him for hours.

 

[Sean K]

Indeed, I could watch/listen to him for hours.

Does he not have an understanding, or an opinion, on anything! Incredible. He probably knows Warnies bowling average.

 

[theasxgorilla]

I especially like how he converts the appreciation of share markets into another relative currency...eg. DJIA is at new all time highs but is still 38% from the highs of '01 when converted from USD into EUR.

 

[sydneysider]

I especially like how he converts the appreciation of share markets into another relative currency...eg. DJIA is at new all time highs but is still 38% from the highs of '01 when converted from USD into EUR.

So what? all markets and currencies are in constant flux. What is the point of analyzing the Dow in another currency from five years ago? U.S. economy is still very healthy, European economies are also doing well but lagging U.S.

Prices of raw materials / energy have dropped reducing inflationary effects. There is nothing that is amiss with this picture. Even U.S. housing is doing better than expected. Oil and gold both have taken recent hits to the downside. Dr Doom has a personality that demands negative calls and often.

 

[theasxgorilla]

So what? all markets and currencies are in constant flux. What is the point of analyzing the Dow in another currency from five years ago? U.S. economy is still very healthy, European economies are also doing well but lagging U.S.

You mean that as a foreign investor if you had your money in the US market and the USD dropped and put you in a net loss situation when converting your money back into your home currency you'd say "so what"?

 

[TheRage]

He's got a brain the size of a small planet! Or, he's just making me seem pea brained.....

Thanks for the feedback. I like your description.

 

[Pager]

Apparently he is most famous for picking the 87 crash a few weeks before it happened, he’s also warned of a few other meltdowns that have occurred since, I suspect the law of averages will eventually work in his favour again and we will get some kind of crash in the various markets and sectors he keeps telling the world are about to take a pasting and he can turn around and say “I told you so”, and will be remembered for his timing and insight!, what wont be mentioned is all the times he has been totally wrong and way off the mark!!!!.

He is very interesting and if the world was an orderly place and the world’s financial markets behaved in a logical, rational and efficient way he may well be spot on most of the time.

Cheers

Pager

 

[Smurf1976]

Even U.S. housing is doing better than expected.

Sure is! It's falling faster than even the bears expected.

 

[rockingham178]

I have watched this since last August and thought we may see a correction in November...nothing happened! But all recent indicators were just too real for a conservative like me, I am now sitting out and cashed up with only EXT left. I got caught in 87' and swore I would wait and watch ready to be able to do (in a smaller way of course) the same as Kerry Packer did in the 87' crash and refer to this as "the good old days". This time I am prepared....are you?

With the DJIA recording 24 new record highs since last October and the ASX just marching on like there is no tomorrow...the warning bells are ringing loudly!

Below is a link to Market Watch news and an excerpt from it, which makes a good read. I also suggest you read the latest daily trading diary by Colin Twiggs of Incredible Charts 13/1/07.

http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Sto...157-993F-C41670B01033}&siteid=mktw&dist=nwhpf

".... don't be too quick in dismissing Shilling's forecasts just because they make you anxious and your internal gyroscope prefers the roaring optimism of bulls. Listen very closely, this scenario will have a powerful effect on your retirement nest egg.

Six overriding trends
Shilling says the same six background forces that dominated last year are still driving the investment climate in 2007. Worse yet, they continue inflating our expectations bubble, making the economy and markets increasingly more vulnerable:
Easy money: The world's awash in liquidity, fueling speculation
Inflation is low and could even shift into a deflationary cycle
Investment returns are low, disappointing most investors
Rampant speculation, thanks to the Fed, Wall Street and Washington
Investor risks increase, hoping to achieve expected higher returns
Insatiable consumers will spend until borrowing power is exhausted.
OK, so that's the economic landscape surrounding you, me and the rest of America's 94 million investors in 2007. In this challenging environment Shilling eight specific scenarios that will occur this year, plus four "maybes" that may be delayed till later:
Housing prices will collapse: "The likelihood of house prices falling substantially to bring them into proper balance ... a 25% decline in house prices nationwide is not a wild forecast, and may be optimistic. Indeed, a 38% fall would be needed to get house prices back in line."
The Fed will ease and the yield curve will remain inverted
U.S. stock prices will fall, perhaps below 2002 lows, in the midst of a recession
China will suffer a hard landing, due to internal cooling and a U.S. recession
U.S. and China problems will spread, depressing economies and stocks
Treasury bonds will rally, with yields falling as low as 3%
The commodity price bubble will soon collapse
U.S. dollar will strengthen after the recession spreads worldwide
Shilling also forecasts four other trends that may not happen in 2007, but could accelerate the collapsing scenario in 2008 or later. They are: Chronic global deflation, a renewed cycle of savings as consumers shift away from 25 years of excessive spending and borrowing and a general decline in speculative ventures.
So what's missing? The biggest one: War!"

 

[2020hindsight]

1. But all recent indicators were just too real for a conservative like me, I am now sitting out and cashed up
2.with only EXT left.
3. I got caught in 87' and swore I would wait and watch ready to be able to do (in a smaller way of course) the same as Kerry Packer did in the 87' crash and refer to this as "the good old days".
4. This time I am prepared....are you?
5. So what's missing? The biggest one: War!

R,
1. I was sitting out last year but been sucked in afain - have about half my money back in the market. not just commodities, more diversified.
2. Even have some EXT. Can I ask, do you have have EXT by choice lol?
3. I think it was Joe Kennedy (JFK's dad) who said that when the bellhops are telling you which shares to buy, then it's time to get out.
4. not as prepared as I'd like. If the market goes up this week, I'm out ! Then again, it'll probably go down, and I'll become a long term investor again.
5. Yep, When I think about it, I usually come up with the conclusion (my ) that anyone predicting boom times ahead - contunuing into a golden everlasting future - is kidding themselves about the state of world tensions. Even the decision on whether to increase US troops seems to be tied up in Congress atm.

- as someone said recently, "if you're not confused, you don't know what's going on".

PS concerning my prediction that things will go bearish.. You'll be pleased to know that about 90% of my "predictions" are wrong. What else can one expect when "predictions" in my case, are little better than guesses, and / or trying to second-guess directions of China's industry, directions of telecommunications, directions of GWB's next attack plans, etc.

 

[rockingham178]

Yes I have EXT by choice. Bought in mainly at 6's and 7's and have taken and still have some very nice profits and expect a lot more to come.

I am effectively taking a risk that I can afford to take now with EXT and if all I have researched over the last 12 months comes to fruition it would have been a very profitable move indeed.

I have my cash holding ready to use which IMO will prove to have been a good move when all of this occurs.

 

[Uncle Festivus]

Re-visiting the original post -

"Gold's 5.2 percent drop yesterday below $700 an ounce for the first time in a week was a "tiny'' decline, Faber said. Investors shouldn't buy gold now because prices may fall further to $550 or $600 before resuming its rally, he said."

That's pretty close to the mark so far you would have to agree.

A common retort to Faber is that if he keeps saying it long enough he will eventually be proven correct. The problem here is that he is mostly very specific in his comments, sometimes down to a specific currency, country or commodity. It's pretty clear he is a big $US bear, due to the underlying structural problems facing the US financial juggernaut. Helicopter Ben even alluded to this a few days ago.

Maybe people get a bit uneasy when he keeps telling them that the emperor has no clothes.

It's all a matter of timing now.

 

[noirua]

Re-visiting the original post -

"Gold's 5.2 percent drop yesterday below $700 an ounce for the first time in a week was a ``tiny'' decline, Faber said. Investors shouldn't buy gold now because prices may fall further to $550 or $600 before resuming its rally, he said."

That's pretty close to the mark so far you would have to agree.

A common retort to Faber is that if he keeps saying it long enough he will eventually be proven correct. The problem here is that he is mostly very specific in his comments, sometimes down to a specific currency, country or commodity. It's pretty clear he is a big $US bear, due to the underlying structural problems facing the US financial juggernaut. Helicopter Ben even allude to this a few day's ago.

Maybe people get a bit uneasy when he keeps telling them that the emperor has no clothes.

It's all a matter of timing now.

Yes, there is that problem of being "eventually correct". An American Guru, Bob Beckman, forecast a collapse in property prices, particularly in the U.K. He started in 1982 and kept on repeating the argument, as prices rose over 100%. Then, in 1988, a slide began and the eventual fall was over 30% by 1992. Was his forecast correct?
Inflation was high during that period, between 5% per annum and 9% per annum.

 

[tech/a]

Ive been on here and Reefcap since inception---pretty well.

EVERY year without exception the market is about to crash.
One year they will be right but for all the others------