Dow Jones technical analysis

Re: DOW Analysis

kennas said:

Could this be a H&S which has broken up, previous resistance tested, and broken up again? That's a heck of a target if it's true.

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seems to be the case , and the next catalyst they are expecting is the early repayment of TARP.

Re: DOW Analysis

Anyone trading the dow tonight?

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so much pressure on the dow this week, wonder how long it can hold this level before it really does test the 8k level

Re: DOW Analysis

mitch87 said:

so much pressure on the dow this week, wonder how long it can hold this level before it really does test the 8k level

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Good volumes returning today for such a small drop on the dow , one thing I watch is DJT has been increasing over the last couple of days after it's big sell off . Last time this happened we had triple digit gains.

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highly volatile times, its interesting to watch some of the videos on yahoo finance with analysts in the USA and what they think will happen next.Many are predicting the worst is yet to be seen and some are saying dow 10k

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perhaps you'd like to ignore the fundamental picture which invariably lags price movement and talk some tech details such as how the dow30 severely lagged the spx500 this week, which, you'll find by looking at a comparison chart (ignoring the triple witching effect)......in fact,the lower the cap the higher the divergence (as seen on a common-all bigcharts.com).....maybe an attempt to rotate......for mine (as i trade the spx) there is a strong case that a larger top is already set in-place in both major indecies.....not withstanding you need to discuss liquidity flow and how the ftse has consistantly led the way on downturns and has consistantly made lower highs (see a comparison on a common-all yahoo.com chart) preceding the 30 or 500 downturns......

also, consider that the emerging markets (eem) has been rocketing ahead of the rest in a very bullish manner but the russell 2k (rut) has severely failed and lagged at the recent high and you might see the picture differently....you may consider there is appropriate speculation order, by that, i mean, that the smaller the cap the more speculative the input of liquidity and the higher the risk taken to gain value, upside...however, speculation is led by smart money and lagged by weak money......

consider puting all those into correct context and that may assist you in making analytical calls......

what, i suggest, you really need to do is simply follow level of supply and demand....well, i am speaking from my own pov....

the fundamental background does play an important role, i agree, however, when a pov is invoked then an instant distort is invoked too, afterall, know one can precisely plot the weight on a price movement to be as resultant or to precede that prioce movement.......in other words, the further you get away from what is going on inside the price movement then the wider the distortion of that analysis......how am to know that what is effective in the TARP is going to effect what happens in a price chart, in the next half hour......not much, probably

don't forget that the 30 and 500 are singular summations and not always inline with actual present, or future, fundamental valuation.....in fact, you should decide what the dow is worth on a gold standard pov v. a fiat currency pov.....quite different.....


anyways, as i said, my current bias is down(ward)

this is an opinion


http://i289.photobucket.com/albums/ll202/julianjoules/chart/percentdec500v30.jpg

http://i289.photobucket.com/albums/ll202/julianjoules/chart/z.png

Re: DOW Analysis

Saw the post earlier about the H/S reversal pttrn.

I had my notes on the chart of the Diamonds Symbol DIA- the etf that tracks the dow but essentially mimicks the $INDU chart.

Looking at the weekly, I accounted for more data and the question is whether this is going to retrace to the 7500 level which would be next major support and potential left shoulder (hanging upside down) or if easer right side of the pattern. Next support would be the march low. Beyond that......

On a daily chart to see the same thing you'd need to expand the date range or simply use a weekly chart instead.

The range we've been in has developed some pretty good resistance but I'll be keeping and eye out on this one.

Notice that we started this with a H/S top (see attached)

Should be interesting but following price is key rather than predict.

Cheers

Derek

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H&S pattern on the weekly really starting to take shape now, price probably needs to hold 7500 to stay valid before breaking 9000 to 'activate' it.

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Forgot about this thread. Guess the head and shoulders or reverse head and shoulders came through- nice thing now is the old resistance of the neckline is now a good support area for traders

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The direct reaction to unemployment on the DOW Index is evident with the Google Unemployment Index. The GUI has the peak of unemployment related queries in March and the trend is down. The Index often precedes the DOW as evident in leading peaks and troughs. A cross could be a strong bullish sign.

Re: DOW Analysis

Wysiwyg said:

The direct reaction to unemployment on the DOW Index is evident with the Google Unemployment Index. The GUI has the peak of unemployment related queries in March and the trend is down. The Index often precedes the DOW as evident in leading peaks and troughs. A cross could be a strong bullish sign.

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That's a compelling graph

cheers

Re: DOW Analysis

A few on here will recognise this chart from a few weeks ago but nothing has changed.

I have been playing around with some time projections.

Interestingly the 13th November is 50% of the time taken from the October 2007 high to the March low this year.

Exactly the same date is arrived at by measuring the time taken for wave-1 or-A and projecting it from the wave-2 or-B low.

We also have confluence around this date using other time analysis techniques.

With the current strength in the DOW I would be looking for a downturn.

We'll see what happens.
__________________

Re: DOW Analysis

i hope this is the correct place to post this......as kennas gets his jollies giving me an infraction for not getting it perfect......its not the infraction that worries me...its kennas getting some jollies....lol

morning kennas..

here goes.

go to link and look at the chart. i cant copy the graph as the site doesnt allow it. it is a damning chart of market manipulation.

I don’t know if any characteristic of this massive 6 month rally has been more apparent than the huge futures run-ups we’ve seen at random points during the trading day. Without news, the S&P 500 futures get gunned on huge volume and surge higher. I’ve seen it at least every other day for 6 months. It tends to occur on low volume days such as the one we’re currently experiencing. As you can see in the chart below, the futures are getting gunned on massive volume without any coinciding volume in SPY. This means an institution is jamming the futures higher knowing that they can drive the market higher on no volume. Effectively, they can take out every asking price with a large enough order and immediately create a 0.25% bump in the market in no time. If you’ve been wondering why we’ve seen huge surges on low volume days and conviction high volume selling on down days this explains much of it.

I don’t know if there is malfeasance behind this or if the buyer is simply too stupid to input trades at the bid (like most rational investors do as they try to achieve the best low price), but this is certainly an odd phenomenon that I cannot recall occurring so routinely over the course of my career. Who is the mystery institutional buyer that just needs to place their huge block orders with such urgency?

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go to link to see charts.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/172609-who-is-the-mystery-buyer

Re: DOW Analysis

I don't get it. Surely people aren't only just noticing this?? It happens alot during the globex session, when the market is open, all the time. I seriously doubt thats a buyer too.

Re: DOW Analysis

Porper said:

A few on here will recognise this chart from a few weeks ago but nothing has changed.

I have been playing around with some time projections.

Interestingly the 13th November is 50% of the time taken from the October 2007 high to the March low this year.

Exactly the same date is arrived at by measuring the time taken for wave-1 or-A and projecting it from the wave-2 or-B low.

We also have confluence around this date using other time analysis techniques.

With the current strength in the DOW I would be looking for a downturn.

We'll see what happens.
__________________

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nice work , I'm picking a -21 today and +88 for tomorrow , cross fingers.

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Forgetting the wave counts for a moment here is some time analysis using techniques taught by Robert Miner.

There is around a 2 week window for a possible reversal, starting today.

Re: DOW Analysis

cheers Porper - out of interest, whats DT showing for the number of days low to high? (if its not too much hassle can you do the total and the subdivisions in terms of 'major' bumps along the way?)
ta, Ed

Re: DOW Analysis

Edwood said:

cheers Porper - out of interest, whats DT showing for the number of days low to high? (if its not too much hassle can you do the total and the subdivisions in terms of 'major' bumps along the way?)
ta, Ed

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I have 218 trading days from last weeks high to march low. Interesting to note support level of 10,084 in 3 days time will be close to the apex value from dec 07 high using 193.75 days in the line calculations .

Re: DOW Analysis

If any faith can be placed in candles, then a reversal has started.

Yearly trend direction is out of my knowing but if someone could substantiate the beginning of a downtrend or the continuation of the uptrend would make for interesting observation.

Re: DOW Analysis

We are flat the DJIA here. It is extremely tough to call at this time going into the new week. Awaiting death channel to emerge prior to setting strategy, stay tuned