Dow Jones technical analysis

Wysiwyg · 25 March 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

While looking for the length of recovery time from the 1987 market decline, this longer time frame view of activity has shown me that if (that two letter word again) the worst comes out of this present scenario then there will be some solid rebounds during the process.Back on upward trend in months or years is now in play soooo remembering that most people are optimistic and it is an Olympics year with the Chinese hosting then maybe, just maybe, the storm clouds will clear and a slow recovery begin to take place.

If i remember i`ll check this post later in the year to see what has eventuated.

josjes · 8 April 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

Long Legged Doji appeared in Dow Jones last night.
Crash mode on from tonight and for the next few weeks ?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

http://www.candlestickforum.com/PPF/Parameters/12_221_/candlestick.asp

MRC & Co · 8 April 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

josjes said:
Long Legged Doji appeared in Dow Jones last night.
Crash mode on from tonight and for the next few weeks ?

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui

http://www.candlestickforum.com/PPF/Parameters/12_221_/candlestick.asp

No important Doji on the intraday overnight? I would say a shooting star would be more of a worry.

Chart?

josjes · 8 April 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

For chart click on the link.
The last candle look like a long-legged doji to me, big indecision time, bull and bear battle it out, and with the overbought condition precedeing, that's why I forward a case of a downward move to support of 11700 before bounceing up nicely again the week of the Fed Reserve meeting 30 April.

Kelpie · 8 April 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

For a morning start to indicate a uptrend, I thought it had to have a downtrend just before it?

MRC & Co · 8 April 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

josjes said:
For chart click on the link.
The last candle look like a long-legged doji to me, big indecision time, bull and bear battle it out, and with the overbought condition precedeing, that's why I forward a case of a downward move to support of 11700 before bounceing up nicely again the week of the Fed Reserve meeting 30 April.

Sorry, I assumed that stockcharts link was to the candlestick explanations (same as the link below). My bad.

Trouble with this is that the doji on the daily comes after a few flat days. However, all of which show indecision, pointing for me, to a downturn. Bulls are out once more also. Signs look ominous. I have closed out most of my positions other than in the commodities as of today.

Tonight will be interesting.

happyjack · 11 April 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

dow is crashing and burning,I will try again to post charts

happyjack · 11 April 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

along with nasdaq

happyjack

wayneL · 11 April 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

LOL

Don't underestimate the delusional US investor... it could still end of green by the end of the cash session.

wayneL · 11 April 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

wayneL said:
LOL

Don't underestimate the delusional US investor... it could still end of green by the end of the cash session.

BTW not trying to be rude, have just seen these sort of down spikes go green all too often when the US is collectively in faeryland.

Uncle Festivus · 11 April 2008

Re: DOW Analysis

wayneL said:
BTW not trying to be rude, have just seen these sort of down spikes go green all too often when the US is collectively in faeryland.

Yes, what happens pre market mostly has little to do with the real market as those yanks like to prove logic wrong. I was hoping it would go up again and touch my short order so I can top up my 'investment grade' short position on the Dow.
12750 ish is proving to be a formidable resistance point with historical precedents.

Do you even think that they have factored in even a slight recession - still only 1500 odd off the record high - plenty of room for downside reality?

Wysiwyg · 17 May 2009

Re: DOW Analysis

It is pretty obvious the DOW has been in a channel for right on 2 months. I`m looking for a breach of the channel support line soon to shake out the comfortable and/or weak bulls sitting on some nice profits since the bounce. Lower price action than the support levels I have marked would be most welcome.

Thankyou for your cooperation.

Signed, perma-bear.

seasprite · 18 May 2009

Re: DOW Analysis

Wysiwyg said:
It is pretty obvious the DOW has been in a channel for right on 2 months. I`m looking for a breach of the channel support line soon to shake out the comfortable and/or weak bulls sitting on some nice profits since the bounce. Lower price action than the support levels I have marked would be most welcome.

Thankyou for your cooperation.

Signed, perma-bear.

you could well be right considering the futures are red on highish volumes however , I suspect a good day on the DOW tomorrow and hope my calculation is correct otherwise it is back to the drawing board for me.

Wysiwyg · 19 May 2009

Re: DOW Analysis

seasprite said:
you could well be right considering the futures are red on highish volumes however , I suspect a good day on the DOW tomorrow and hope my calculation is correct otherwise it is back to the drawing board for me.

And you were right seasprite. The following two sessions saw the trend line tipped to perfection (I suppose there are a few trading it ) and your suspected "good day" ensued.

To be honest, I don`t recognise any topping formation yet.

seasprite · 21 May 2009

Re: DOW Analysis

Wysiwyg said:
To be honest, I don`t recognise any topping formation yet.

I find it hard to believe this is the start of a downleg at the moment , seems to be more of a tree shaking exercise to shake the dead wood out, the daily RSI for the SP500 is still hovering around 60 , and I was of the opinion SP 925 needed to be tested again , so I suspect DJIA tomorrow may start with a selloff and end the day positive after the last two days activities.

As wayneL says "Don't underestimate the delusional US investor"

seasprite · 22 May 2009

Re: DOW Analysis

seasprite said:
so I suspect DJIA tomorrow may start with a selloff and end the day positive after the last two days activities.

Not quite made it , the last 100 million of 300 million volume came in too late towards the last hour of trade , and the positive trend was way less than expected.

jackson8 · 25 May 2009

Re: DOW Analysis

hi all

just realised holiday for memorial day in usa. tonight so no trading

thought i would mention for those interested

metric · 26 May 2009

Re: DOW Analysis

from the fox business show. http://www.foxbusiness.com/search-results/m/22293846/is-the-rally-over.htm

the vid at the link above shows shaffer questioning the freedom of the market...on fox!!! lol

With 2 minutes 30 seconds remaining in the video, Dan Shaffer, President of Shaffer Asset Management, gives shocking evidence of direct government intervention in the stock market:

i doubt it was government though....

“Something strange happened during the last 7 or 8 weeks. Doreen you probably can concur on this -- there was a power underneath the market that kept holding it up and trading the futures. I watch the futures every day and every tick, and a tremendous amount of volume came in a several points during the last few weeks, when the market was just about ready to break, and it shot right up again. Usually toward the end of the day – it happened a week ago Friday, at 7 minutes to 4 o’clock, almost 100,000 S&P futures contracts were traded, and then in the last 5 minutes, up to 4 o’clock, another 100,000 contracts were traded, and lifted the Dow from being down 18 to up over 44 or 50 points in 7 minutes. That is 10 to 20 billion dollars to be able to move the market in such a way. Who has that kind of money to move this market?

On top of that, the market has rallied up during the stress test uncertainty and moved the bank stocks up, and the bank stocks issued secondaries – they issues stock – they raised capital into this rally. It was perfect text book setup of controlling the markets – now that the stock has been issued…” [interrupted by Richard Suttmeier].

seasprite · 28 May 2009

Re: DOW Analysis

metric said:
“ I watch the futures every day and every tick, and a tremendous amount of volume came in a several points during the last few weeks, when the market was just about ready to break, and it shot right up again. Usually toward the end of the day – it happened a week ago Friday, at 7 minutes to 4 o’clock, almost 100,000 S&P futures contracts were traded, and then in the last 5 minutes, up to 4 o’clock, another 100,000 contracts were traded, and lifted the Dow from being down 18 to up over 44 or 50 points in 7 minutes. That is 10 to 20 billion dollars to be able to move the market in such a way. Who has that kind of money to move this market?.

Noticed this also , especially on today's close in the last half hour , futures go ballistic . Personally expecting at least +50 tomorrow. Futures are currently +34 , but it's getting harder to pick .

Sean K · 3 June 2009

Re: DOW Analysis

Could this be a H&S which has broken up, previous resistance tested, and broken up again? That's a heck of a target if it's true.

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