CSL - CSL Limited

[investorpaul]

Well I am as new to trading as you can be, just opened up my CommSec Account about a week ago, and I happened to watch a few news story's about CSL undertaking human trials for the H1N1 virus. I looked up the stock on google finance, looking at the chart they provide, it seemed that at $30 a share I was buying at a great price, and a safe price, and once they rolled out the vaccine it could only go up. Well, I bought 200 shares, and the price has only been going down since, slightly un-nerving for my first ever purchase. I would be happy with $32+ per share and said to myself surely in 3 months it will reach it.

fzbkk - This is not advice - But $30 x 200 = $6,000. Most books/websites suggest a minimum investment of $2000 in each stock (to help cover the cost of brokerage) so you could have diversified by buying 3 different stocks ($2k in each), this would help take away the pain of seeing your one and only stock dropping.

Secondly you need to work out if your an investor (buying for long term 3, 5 or 10 yrs, etc). Or a trader who wants to make money within a short space of time (days, weeks, months). If you are a trader you need an exit strategy for the trades that go against you, as you dont want to blow your whole account on a few trades that turn sour. This will help determine how much you should be concerned about short term price movements.

Also if you are "trading" you may want to look at some books/sites on technical analysis.

If you look at the newbies/education section there are heaps of posts (with alot more experience/info that what I have) who will help point you in the right direction.

 

[waz]

Keep in mind that for the last few months CSL share price normally moves inverse to the Australian dollar.

 

[bleach8]

Keep in mind that for the last few months CSL share price normally moves inverse to the Australian dollar.

not ture for the last few weeks ...

one the trend is .... index goes up...csl goes down...
index does down...csl still goes down
AUD goes up....csl goes down...
AUD goes down...Csl still goes down..

no matter what ..the price is just heading down…
u can argue that funds went to some small stocks for the rally….but it just not justifiable. Look at all other defensive stocks…most of them went up to some extents.
It just doesn’t make sense. The buy-back stopped for 2 weeks now …why ?!?! I guess CSL’s report this year will under the estimates. That why CSL has stopped the buy back ..becoz they know that the share price will drop significantly after the release of the financial reports. So they will able to buyback after the announcement at a much cheaper price. Otherwise , if CSL going to post another robust result, they will be mad to stop the buyback at the recent low price level.

The Court case in U.S is not a major factor to justify the recent share price…. Remember Baxtor has also been sued, and look at its price …not effected at all…

 

[sidious]

The way I see it CSL is a dog. All the majors ave risen but CSL is still in its lows. Swine flu is rising, BTA has more than doubled and CSL is still flat.
I have tried CSL before. I bought at 32 and rose a little bit and dropped to 31, then 30. While all this is happening, the others are rising well.

What a waste of money and time. Then you get the crap excuse that investing takes time and it's not favoured by the market atm.

Maybe the price is just too high.

 

[zacaxel1975]

The buy-back stopped for 2 weeks now …why ?!?! I guess CSL’s report this year will under the estimates. That why CSL has stopped the buy back ..becoz they know that the share price will drop significantly after the release of the financial reports. So they will able to buyback after the announcement at a much cheaper price. Otherwise , if CSL going to post another robust result, they will be mad to stop the buyback at the recent low price level.

I think there is a regulation around buying back their own shares within a certain time before anouncing results?

 

[fzbkk]

fzbkk - This is not advice - But $30 x 200 = $6,000. Most books/websites suggest a minimum investment of $2000 in each stock (to help cover the cost of brokerage) so you could have diversified by buying 3 different stocks ($2k in each), this would help take away the pain of seeing your one and only stock dropping.

Secondly you need to work out if your an investor (buying for long term 3, 5 or 10 yrs, etc). Or a trader who wants to make money within a short space of time (days, weeks, months). If you are a trader you need an exit strategy for the trades that go against you, as you dont want to blow your whole account on a few trades that turn sour. This will help determine how much you should be concerned about short term price movements.

Also if you are "trading" you may want to look at some books/sites on technical analysis.

If you look at the newbies/education section there are heaps of posts (with alot more experience/info that what I have) who will help point you in the right direction.

Thanks for your comments, looking back the decision I made was spur of the moment, and more research on my part should have been conducted. I guess I was just eager to start trading and thought I had found a sure thing. I am not overly concerned because if I make a loss in the short term I will hold as long as it takes, and believe given time I will make money on CSL. In regards to investing or trading, I would like to trade when I have the knowledge to do so. I am 26 years old, so Investing a % or my money in stocks for the long term is also part of my overall still developing strategy. I have 3 books on order,

1)Starting out in shares:The ASX way
2)Trading CFD's Options and Warrants:The ASX way
3)A Beginners guide to short term trading

 

[investorpaul]

Thanks for your comments, looking back the decision I made was spur of the moment, and more research on my part should have been conducted. I guess I was just eager to start trading and thought I had found a sure thing. I am not overly concerned because if I make a loss in the short term I will hold as long as it takes, and believe given time I will make money on CSL. In regards to investing or trading, I would like to trade when I have the knowledge to do so. I am 26 years old, so Investing a % or my money in stocks for the long term is also part of my overall still developing strategy. I have 3 books on order,

1)Starting out in shares:The ASX way
2)Trading CFD's Options and Warrants:The ASX way
3)A Beginners guide to short term trading

Without trying to deviate too much from the topic of the thread. Most of us have been there when we first decided to trade/invest and made a bad first call.

To be honest it is probably better to lose on your first few trades as it forces you to learn and try and find out why you lost. If you just kept winning you would thinkit is all too easy and keep piling money into the market only to be wiped out when it turns pear shaped.

Use the search function and type in "books" there are plenty of recommendations on good books, etc. Also check out the asx website under the education tab there is good free info there as well. Finally google incredible charts and download it for free, then look up the chart of CSL to understand what its share price has been doing over the last couple of months.

With regard to CSL decide whether it is in your L/T of S/T basket of shares and why you bought it. If it still fits your criteria there is no problem holding it, just make sure you know why you bought it and if it still fits in with that strategy. I hope it all goes well.

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

In refrence to FZBKK..

I have been jumping onto CSL selling and the onto BHP & selling ....sort of a cyclic trade. But look carefully and you will notice the slide in CSL .$30 for 200 shares is low ratio to buy into,on hindsight $29 bucks is a closer pitch to hit, the share really struggled in the $29.90>$30.07 zone and when the support gave way well it "shutitself" . For 200 shares I would be gauging for a long term view.
But why jump on a static share ,when the rest of the market is showing momentum till date.?
Note I'm not interested in holding $25 shares for too long the fluidity & # of trades is king for me.
Lastly I disagree with the comments that CSL is a dog....give it time ,and if the price reaches further lows I for one will be sniffing again.
Huntleys have a buy on the share if that soothes your mind -G'luck
Forgot -I at present do not hold CSL -yet I do have a buy on it !

 

[sidious]

Wasn't Huntleys one of the brokers who recommended a buy on Allco, BNB, ABC........They had recommendation of buy on GPT, GMG, MOF up to the point that it hit below 0.3. By the way, by the time they changed their recommendation, a lot of investors have been burned already. My point is not to follow brokers recommendation and DYOR. That's where I'm at now.

As for my statement about CSL being a dog, other stocks have been rising. Assuming I put 10k to CSL starting July 1, by now it would be $9291. But if I put it in BTA, by now its $15600. $5600 in one month. Not bad. I know CSL, it was on my portfolio for sometime but it did not make an money for me.
For a short time frame, CSL may not be preferred stocks. There may be others much better. I guess what ever suits your timeframe. Maybe you might be lucky if your timeframe is 2 years.

For now, I'm trying to make the most money as possible before the next market correction / consolidation. BTW I'm not an expert nor a financial adviser. Don't make decisions based on my post.

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

Wasn't Huntleys one of the brokers who recommended a buy on Allco, BNB, ABC........They had recommendation of buy on GPT, GMG, MOF up to the point that it hit below 0.3. By the way, by the time they changed their recommendation, a lot of investors have been burned already. My point is not to follow brokers recommendation and DYOR. That's where I'm at now.

Sidious....in fact I was going to ramble on about how experts place BUYS and pull the carpet with an update....Do you remember Ambro !!!! & others some don't exist now ! ...it was "BUY Bye Bye!" . I was caught out in Montevideo ,Uruguay at the time when the crash started to come thick ,and the public woke up to a nightmare scenario.
Still CSL +29 cents as I type...... With recent gains in hmmm is it 10 days now ?,I must admit I was expecting a profit taking day soon .....but it just shows how the market operates.

I saw somebody state CSL's price operates in sync with the Aus $ ...

 

[urgalzmine]

I dont know why everyone is comparing allco, BNB, ABC... etc to CSL.

CSL is the market leader of plasma blood. It doesnt have debt that cant be repaid like the above companies had.

CSL with approx $2.1billion in cash

Mr. McNamee( CSL’s chief executive officer and managing director ) had said
"CSL expects to be debt-free once the buyback is completed, McNamee told analysts on a separate call. That will give the company the “financial capacity to do important transactions that will help the company continue to grow,” he said. On a later call with reporters, McNamee said he’s interested in acquiring non-plasma companies such as vaccine makers or biotechnology-based drug developers. He didn’t name any targets.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aYr6Q_ACA6cU (9th June 2009)

I am not saying that brokers advise is wrong or right, but looking at just debt CSL to be ok? wouldnt anyone agree?

 

[drlog]

I agree. The fundamentals look good, they didn't stop growing during the GFC and the management is excellent.

Everyone is having a whinge because the share price has been going down over the last few weeks rather than tracking the All ords up.

 

[3 veiws of a secret]

I dont know why everyone is comparing allco, BNB, ABC... etc to CSL.

Sorry you may of misunderstood us.......It was Huntleys & other brokers that where telling everybody to buy shares prior to the crunch .The refrence is too Huntleys etc ONLY.... I was impling that Huntley's &/or Ambro did not provide good service to its clients proir to the credit crash......the shares mentioned are a good & fair example to what Sidious was saying~ Sidious is CORRECT .

Sorry 4 the confusion.....back to CSL ! its still a BUY by Huntleys ! Buy it or Leave it

 

[Jazzee]

I am interested to hear what you are all thinking about the US hospital suing CSL for price fixing (with Baxter), I am of the opinion that it is having the greatest effect on the price, at least stopping it from breaking out. I currently own a reasonably large parcel of the shares, my plan was half for 'shorter term' trading and half for long term growth. In the shorter term my view is that the uncertainty around the legal action - I'm hoping for some clarification from CSL mgt in the shorter term.

 

[bleach8]

I am interested to hear what you are all thinking about the US hospital suing CSL for price fixing (with Baxter), I am of the opinion that it is having the greatest effect on the price, at least stopping it from breaking out. I currently own a reasonably large parcel of the shares, my plan was half for 'shorter term' trading and half for long term growth. In the shorter term my view is that the uncertainty around the legal action - I'm hoping for some clarification from CSL mgt in the shorter term.

do u guys read my comment at all?!!? look at the price of Baxter after the court case news broke out!!! it explains everything!!!! its not material at all!! a small hospital suing a company with 1.1 billion in profit? the chance of winning is too small! even the FTC has little resources to org such a big case!

can you please read my post regarding to the price weakness ..see if it make sense to you.

 

[Knobby22]

do u guys read my comment at all?!!? look at the price of Baxter after the court case news broke out!!! it explains everything!!!! its not material at all!! a small hospital suing a company with 1.1 billion in profit? the chance of winning is too small! even the FTC has little resources to org such a big case!

can you please read my post regarding to the price weakness ..see if it make sense to you.

I agree. There is a ridiculous number of lawyers in the US always touting for work. I will be only be worried if that hospital convinces others it has a case and launches a class action. So far that appears unlikely to say the least.
Not to say that isn't effecting the share price.

 

[fzbkk]

As A noob I will be interested to see what happens (or doesn't) tomorow with the announcement of, Notice of initial substantial holder (Barclays Group) that was posted at 4:57pm today, I have no idea what this really means.

 

[So_Cynical]

As A noob I will be interested to see what happens (or doesn't) tomorow with the announcement of, Notice of initial substantial holder (Barclays Group) that was posted at 4:57pm today, I have no idea what this really means.

I don't think it means anything other than Barclay's wanting a bit of exposure to the CSL share price....banks buy in and out of big stocks all the time.

 

[drlog]

There is a "price sensitive" column on the ASX page. If there is a red ! then it will possibly affect the price. There hasn't recently been any price sensitive announcements from CSL.

 

[Knobby22]

EPS 192.5, higher than forecast.
final dividend of 40c, very nice.
Plenty of cash in hand.
Looking cheap to me. Glad I bought some more last month, may buy more.