CSL - CSL Limited

[bongcso]

I'm lost on CSL's open buy-back announcement coincident to their throwing in the towel on the Talecris deal. If market price remains greater than $29, as it is, why would anyone sell their shares back to CSL any lower? To my mind all that it seems to accomplish is place a market stop loss on the price until the offer expires. Methinks it may be a ploy along with the other CSL spin released today to keep a floor under their share price until the dust settles.

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/090608/2/26rwf.html

Anyone?

I don't think there is any sinister ploy involved in the buyback. Last Friday's closing price of 28.98 was used to estimate what the buyback would cost. CSL is trying to return to shareholders the money it raised for the Talecris acquisition which it now does not need. However, they are restricted by ASX to buying back a maximum of 9% of shares in a 12 month period which translates to 54,863,000 shares. However, they will buy back at market price over a period starting from 23 June 2009. You can look at the announcement on the CSL website for more details on the buyback.
http://www.csl.com.au/s1/cs/auhq/1187378853231/news/1242703993084/prdetail.htm

Hope this helps

Christina
http://sli-smsf.com/

 

[haunting]

Methinks it may be a ploy along with the other CSL spin released today to keep a floor under their share price until the dust settles.

I am with you on this. It serves two purposes by this action: a) it provides a bottom to the share price at 29.00 (until the buyback scheme ends); b) they get to keep some of the fund through the scheme before the market demands them to return all of it since the takeover is now off the card.

Longer term, investor should ask CSL's management on their growth strategy. At this point, it seems there is none. Without a good growth strategy and with a comparatively high PE against the sector, CSL will be facing pressure in justifying the share price at the current level. In one of the news reports, an analyst was saying CSL is looking pricey and the sector it is in looking like a maturing sector.

Until it can provide some kind of long term direction and good plan, I am still of the opinion that CSL at the current price is only good for a trade.

 

[Faithinchartz]

Until it can provide some kind of long term direction and good plan, I am still of the opinion that CSL at the current price is only good for a trade.

Hmmm. What about the fact is has no debt, has long term supply contracts for plasma products, is one of a few companies that provides such and so has market power. In addition, what about the fact that CSL is one of only two companies in the world with substantive vaccine-producing capacity (along with Baxter) & the US government has recently signed it up to be (I think) a sole supplier of swine flu vaccine? I think it will reach 35 or even 40

 

[Gundini]

I own this stock, and it seems to do not so well when the AUD goes up.

I think it earns most income in USD.

Considering selling on that basis, and re enter if the USD ever finds some upside..........

 

[So_Cynical]

CSL is one of only two companies in the world with substantive vaccine-producing capacity (along with Baxter) & the US government has recently signed it up to be (I think) a sole supplier of swine flu vaccine?

From memory i believe CSL was one of about 4 or 5 vaccine producers to get a contract from the US govt...the big upside for CSL IMO is vaccine production coming into the northern winter...who will the Chinese Govt turn to when they decide they should vaccinate essential services personnel and the armed forces etc?

 

[bleach8]

From memory i believe CSL was one of about 4 or 5 vaccine producers to get a contract from the US govt...the big upside for CSL IMO is vaccine production coming into the northern winter...who will the Chinese Govt turn to when they decide they should vaccinate essential services personnel and the armed forces etc?

China has a total of 11 drug companies that can produce seasonal flu vaccines. there are only around 36 companies can produce vaccines, and almost 1/3 are based in China. So i dont thik they will buy vaccines from CSL.

 

[So_Cynical]

China has a total of 11 drug companies that can produce seasonal flu vaccines. there are only around 36 companies can produce vaccines, and almost 1/3 are based in China. So i dont thik they will buy vaccines from CSL.

Well i had to look...and turns out your correct...quotes from link below.

China has a total of 11 drug companies that can produce seasonal flu vaccines..China's
annual vaccine production capacity is expected to reach 360 million doses if all the 11
domestic drug companies were approved for batch production of the vaccines.

http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsgeneral.php?id=417225

So how come the Americans didn't give the Chinese vaccine producers a contract? or did they?

 

[iASX]

My research group, iASX, is just about to publish a new target price for CSL, which I'm sure you'll find proves to be much more meaningful than flawed DCF valuation...


Best,
iASX

 

[dhukka]

My research group, iASX, is just about to publish a new target price for CSL, which I'm sure you'll find proves to be much more meaningful than flawed DCF valuation...


Best,
iASX

Oh please tell us your magic valuation kind sir and could you provide a link to your research group that I'm sure has some product I can susbscribe to for a fee.

 

[sqwark7600]

My research group, iASX, is just about to publish a new target price for CSL, which I'm sure you'll find proves to be much more meaningful than flawed DCF valuation...


Best,
iASX

My research group iDUM is just about to ask your research group iASX do you expect a rush of subscribers, lured by your golden beacon of share trading wisdom, to now rush out and buy ignoring our beloved but "floored" DCF valuation.....miASS! Say hullo to the groupies.

 

[sqwark7600]

I own this stock, and it seems to do not so well when the AUD goes up.

I think it earns most income in USD.

Considering selling on that basis, and re enter if the USD ever finds some upside..........

I'm with you. I would be comfortable owning CSL if it wasn't so tied to the USD, which is coming under more sustained attack from the bond market, and it carries such a high PE in todays market (albeit accompanied by impeccable fundamentals). The trend has been downward since late Feb09.
As for pig flu revenue IMHO it seems more and more that the demand will peter out along with the threat. Neither EW nor any technicals that I can discover give any hint of an imminent solid turn towards the consensus value targets of $35-38. And then there is the nearing change at the top.
ANN, HSP or SHL are probably more profitable healthcare targets IHMO.

 

[So_Cynical]

"25th-May-2009" I got in at the open today 30.20...under 30.50 was my buy zone, happy to hold till im in profit...CSL at under 30.50 has been great buying over the last 7 months.

Out at today's high 32.07 for a nice little profit not spectacular but achieved the minimum i set
out to achieve, profit and 8% of original capital left in as a long term hold, as per trading plan .

 

[pursuitute]

Hi, new here - part time mug-punter, full time woulda/coulda/shoulda.

I had thought CSL would do well ok after the press went nuts with the announcemnt they were first to do human testing on their H1N1 Vaccine. Orders stacked of 21m hits from our Gov't alone, the WHO telling us there is no point counting those affected anymore and the US keeping CSL on their list of suppliers.

Admittedly, GSK's pre-order for 190m was pretty impressive and BTA responded accordingly but I didn't expect to see CSL slip further on the back of such a positive (in such a negative

What are the thoughts for CSL if the results of the trial are positive and they begin shipping late Sept early Oct?

Cheers, Scott

 

[drlog]

From what I understand (which isn't much ), CSL makes most of its profit from plasma products. So the flu vaccines don't make that much money and therefore don't drive the share price. Meanwhile, there is someone suing CSL for price fixing of their plasma products which is bad news (especially if it's true!)

Someone correct me if I am wrong please

I am going to hold anyway. The management is good and all of the fundamental indicators still look good.

 

[pursuitute]

.... the flu vaccines don't make that much money and therefore don't drive the share price. Meanwhile, there is someone suing CSL for price fixing of their plasma products which is bad news (especially if it's true!)

Yes they are being sued, of more concern is the FTC's comments about "troubling signs of co-ordinated behaviour".

Re vaccines not making much money, I'd have thought the opposite given the status of H1N1 as a global pandemic. I'd guess that the spend in the western world would top $10bn on this virus alone.... and there isn't that many companies that have announced they have started [or are about to] start trials.

With global press allover CSL & Vaxine, I just thought it would have spiked a little

As you mentioned, their fundamentals are strong and I think they are nudging support so it's a hold for me too.

 

[So_Cynical]

There,s still potential upside due to the evolving H1N1 situation...however the counter to that is the USD earnings situation, still CSL is a great stock, very liquid and prone to range....ive moved my CSL buy zone down to 28.50

Just my opinion of course.

 

[sidious]

CSL is not going up above $32. Management happy to buy back shares at $29. I wonder how much they offered the shares last year? $32? If their capital raising was higher than $29, where will the difference go? Who will pocket it?

In the meantime, my target price is $27. The recent rally have not been helping CSL at all

 

[Knobby22]

The possiblity of problems in the USA and people switching from CSL to stocks likely to move faster in this upswing hasn't helped. However in my view the company is in bargain territory. That's why I just bought some more.

If they get down to $22 I will tak a big mortgage on my house to up the holding. I predict the latest results are going to be very good. There is also talk of men taking the vaccine. It appears that men who engage in oral sex can get all sorts of nasty mouth and throat cancers caused by the same virus.

 

[fzbkk]

Well I am as new to trading as you can be, just opened up my CommSec Account about a week ago, and I happened to watch a few news story's about CSL undertaking human trials for the H1N1 virus. I looked up the stock on google finance, looking at the chart they provide, it seemed that at $30 a share I was buying at a great price, and a safe price, and once they rolled out the vaccine it could only go up. Well, I bought 200 shares, and the price has only been going down since, slightly un-nerving for my first ever purchase. I would be happy with $32+ per share and said to myself surely in 3 months it will reach it.

 

[drlog]

Hahaha, thats funny! My first buy on the sharemarket was in CSL as well at $42!!!

Don't worry fzbkk, you got a great price on CSL and they are definitely forecast to grow. I recommend you start looking at fundamental analysis. I am glad I lost money on the market right away since it made me do more research.