CSL - CSL Limited

[carmen]

Is it going to get to your price? Where would you place your stop loss? Would you add to your position on break below $30? What would be a profit target, or you would just trail a stop?

Just something to consider. Good luck with the trade.

No idea how its going to play out (could end ugly ). Signal I am looking for is a couple of weak closes above $32.75 ($34.75 would be perfect) and a drift towards $34/$35 over 1-2 weeks. Target $0? Is that possible?

 

[carmen]

CSL is a defensive stock. It will usually hold its ground in a down market. It did well to come of its low on Friday and held up well the day before when the market fell 3%

Good luck with the short but I think your barking up the wrong tree. Then again QBE fell $6-7 a few months ago and sometime the best trades are against the consensus. However sell the weak and buy the strong come to mind when I think of CSL. Just to note PRY, HSP, COH and SHL did well last week and CSL only lost 6c. What bleach8 said is probably correct. The market dislikes uncertainty.

I like CSL long term - own it in my superfund, so have noticed how weak its been lately. Fundamentally to get a P/E 20 in a bear market i think you'd have to be doing something exciting, ecspecially when there are soo many dogs running around at 5x. Thats just my thoughts, thanks

 

[Aussiest]

Please explain *With Paulin Hanson tone*

Do you have a separate long investment holding vs a trading short?

Please explain? I can't, it was a messy trade. The sloppiest thing i have done in a while. Am hoping it will dip down soon so i can get rid of it. Price dipped a bit today, so hopefully will continue down to 31ish.

I will add to my long position if it dips down anyway.

Hopefully i'll come out of it without too much damage.

 

[Nero64]

No idea how its going to play out (could end ugly ). Signal I am looking for is a couple of weak closes above $32.75 ($34.75 would be perfect) and a drift towards $34/$35 over 1-2 weeks. Target $0? Is that possible?

Your post in this thread is a G up right? You got a reaction out of us. But hey your weak closes above $32 is a good call. I see the same thing. There is a gap at $33.30 that needs to be filled. It's funny, but hey anything is possible in the markets. Considering CSL has 2.7Bill in cash and debts of around 2Bill, I don't think it is getting to $0 unless the need for research into blood plasma goes.

 

[Trevor_S]

With a SP which is not going up, and a paltry 1.7% dividend, I don't know why anyone would buy this, frankly.

I am with Julia on this one, I have been looking at CSL for some time wonder why the hell people are buying it, I see no real value at current prices ?

Yes, I know it's considered by analysts to be a good 'core fundamental stock'

Which is why I keep looking but then keep assuring myself these guys have NFI what they are talking about and are regurgitating some party line, making a self full filling prophecy. I will leave it alone and leave it to the day traders, unless it reprices to reflect my idea of value.

 

[questionall_42]

Will be interesting to see how the CSL sp plays out given Talecris has been by US FTC.

1111 [Dow Jones] CSL (CSL.AU) down 1.7% at A$30.38, bounces from 2-month low of A$29.94, despite confirmation that U.S. FTC is taking action to block Talecris takeover. Some traders expecting CSL to hit A$29.00 on this news, but they note the market has recently become less confident of a deal. Speculation of significant FTC hurdles first emerged on May 7, pushing CSL down from A$33.50 the day before. UBS head of Sydney sales trading George Kanaan says today's news may have limited impact because hope of a deal had already cooled and because CSL could do a share buyback. "In a week's time, the market probably won't care about it because they will be able to do a buyback which would be quite accretive at these levels.". CSL chart support currently A$30.00, A$26.85. Resistance A$32.01, A$35.07, according to Dow Jones Newswires technical analysis. (DWR)

 

[So_Cynical]

I got in at the open today 30.20...funny cos i didn't give myself much hope
of getting my low ball buy order filled when i decided to have a go at CSL
late last nite.

I could care less whether the take over goes ahead or not....under 30.50
was my buy zone, happy to hold till im in profit.

I am with Julia on this one, I have been looking at CSL for some time wonder
why the hell people are buying it, I see no real value at current prices ?

Don't know how u can look at this chart and say that :dunno:...unarguably buying
CSL at under 30.50 has been great buying over the last 7 months.

 

[Nero64]

This stock is tracking the Aussie Dollar. It's weak as the Aus $ rises because it does most of its business in US dollars. Makes a good hedging stock against the Aussie dollar weakness as it will rise.

See chart

 

[Aussiest]

I got in at the open today 30.20...funny cos i didn't give myself much hope
of getting my low ball buy order filled when i decided to have a go at CSL
late last nite.

I could care less whether the take over goes ahead or not....under 30.50
was my buy zone, happy to hold till im in profit.



Don't know how u can look at this chart and say that :dunno:...unarguably buying
CSL at under 30.50 has been great buying over the last 7 months.

Look, i bought in at over $31.00 and am happy to hold (sort of, if you know what i mean!!). I think you did well...

 

[So_Cynical]

This stock is tracking the Aussie Dollar. It's weak as the Aus $ rises
because it does most of its business in US dollars.

Have to admit u don't know that much about CSL...for a change i just really liked the
chart, serves me right as im usually a nut for the fundamentals.

Look, i bought in at over $31.00 and am happy to hold (sort of,
if you know what i mean!!). I think you did well...

Would of done better waiting for today...still i keep telling myself u just cant get the perfect
entry or exit...just concentrate on the percentages, don't worry about the small stuff.

 

[Nero64]

Have to admit u don't know that much about CSL

My chart tells it like it is. If you can't see a pattern then maybe your missing something. Its does a lot of its business in US dollars so don't you think its bottom line would take a hit if the USD went south. None of us work for this company or put together its balance sheets or do the company deals, so none of us really know about this company.

 

[haunting]

Been trading this one for quite a while. My 2c at this juncture.

Point 1 - I take that to reflect weakness where buyers were easily overcome by selling at or near the lower trend line

Point 2 - RSI likewise is showing weak momentum

Point 3 - 2 days of high vol spike may kill the downward move, watch the rebound strength, this could present a short term trading opportunity. But with the price dipping over the red support line, the prognosis at this point is the selling momentum is likely to continue, probably due to shorting. See this: http://www.asx.com.au/data/Shortsell.txt.

If the rebound does not materialise, my next move would be to watch the next two lower targets of 28.26 and 24.70 - this would depend a lot on what CSL management is telling the instos with regard to their growth strategy without Talecris, and the treatment with the US$3.1b cash pile.

Operation wise, with the US$ potentially heading towards 76, CSL's profit will be affected as highlighted here: http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=7A60F50B-1871-E587-E1AF1D5B4A74A1D5, possibly worse if the US$ were to decline further from the current level.

 

[So_Cynical]

My chart tells it like it is. If you can't see a pattern then maybe your missing something. Its does a lot of its business in US dollars so don't you think its bottom line would take a hit if the USD went south. None of us work for this company or put together its balance sheets or do the company deals, so none of us really know about this company.

Sorry Nero small typo on my part...meant to say "i don't know much about CSL"
your USD chart makes perfect sense.

 

[Aussiest]

Been trading this one for quite a while. My 2c at this juncture.

Point 1 - I take that to reflect weakness where buyers were easily overcome by selling at or near the lower trend line

Point 2 - RSI likewise is showing weak momentum

Point 3 - 2 days of high vol spike may kill the downward move, watch the rebound strength, this could present a short term trading opportunity. But with the price dipping over the red support line, the prognosis at this point is the selling momentum is likely to continue, probably due to shorting. See this: http://www.asx.com.au/data/Shortsell.txt.

If the rebound does not materialise, my next move would be to watch the next two lower targets of 28.26 and 24.70 - this would depend a lot on what CSL management is telling the instos with regard to their growth strategy without Talecris, and the treatment with the US$3.1b cash pile.

Operation wise, with the US$ potentially heading towards 76, CSL's profit will be affected as highlighted here: http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=7A60F50B-1871-E587-E1AF1D5B4A74A1D5, possibly worse if the US$ were to decline further from the current level.

Yeah, it's not looking good. Big selling pressure today. Weak support at $30, not sure whether it will hold. My thought is that it will fall through $30.00. Not so good for me, but okay for Cynical_guy. I wouldn't be worrying about it if i had bought at $30.00. I'm going to hold. Nothing to lose.

 

[carmen]

Your post in this thread is a G up right? You got a reaction out of us. But hey your weak closes above $32 is a good call. I see the same thing. There is a gap at $33.30 that needs to be filled. It's funny, but hey anything is possible in the markets. Considering CSL has 2.7Bill in cash and debts of around 2Bill, I don't think it is getting to $0 unless the need for research into blood plasma goes.

Hehe $0 was bit of a joke. But anyway you look at its chart, every indicator, every analysis its a screaming sell. Might look good at a buy at $15.

 

[So_Cynical]

But anyway you look at its chart, every indicator, every analysis
its a screaming sell. Might look good at a buy at $15.

Not so


http://www.sharecafe.com.au/fnarena_news.asp?a=AV&ai=13026

QUOTE:
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch had yet to update its views on CSL (CSL) after it became
apparent the company's proposed acquisition of Talecris in the US would not be approved
by regulators. The broker has now rectified the situation, with the good news for shareholders
being BA-ML still considers the stock to be a Buy.

Post the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch result, the FNArena database shows CSL rated as
Buy seven times and Hold twice

Or try this analysis

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=817693

 

[ROE]

Not so


http://www.sharecafe.com.au/fnarena_news.asp?a=AV&ai=13026

QUOTE:
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch had yet to update its views on CSL (CSL) after it became
apparent the company's proposed acquisition of Talecris in the US would not be approved
by regulators. The broker has now rectified the situation, with the good news for shareholders
being BA-ML still considers the stock to be a Buy.

Post the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch result, the FNArena database shows CSL rated as
Buy seven times and Hold twice

Or try this analysis

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=817693

How many time the broker or analyst got it badly wrong?

You should look at how analyst work, they are a bunch of sheep
that follow a bunch of calculators and a bunch of rules
for the firm they working for.

Most of them doesn't have an in depth knowledge on the business
because they cover so many stocks and they have so little time
to do anything else.

They rarely write anything negative for a big firm fearful
their job maybe at risk.

Look at the guy that wrote about article on Asciano sometimes ago
regarding their debt is much greater than their asset and the stock is pretty much worthless

he got the sack.....doesn't matter how they spin it that they close
down the infrastructure division and has to let him go etc...
if you are a good employee why don't they re-deploy him else where in that massive firm?

I like CSL and I like their business and I like to own it some day at the right price
just be careful on analyst recommendation on a certain price.

I usually find it's better to buy when Analyst are fearful and disown the stock than to buy when they are cheerful

 

[skc]

Fundamentally, CSL has always been one of the more expensive ones on the market because of its growth prospects. If the growth prospect is deemed unattainable, a re rating (through lower PE ratio) may result. Current PE ~19.4, EPS ~$1.50.

They do have $2.5B cash lying around not earning anything - that is $4.10 a share. Assuming they return this, then the current PE is only ~16.5. So the current price looks reasonable to me from a fundamental point of view.

A H&S with neckline at $30 has formed, which put a price target of ~$25 (funny enough, the post capital return price!). A nice battle being fought out at $29 at the moment. If that holds, then a tiny rebound to neckline is possible.

 

[Nero64]

Hehe $0 was bit of a joke. But anyway you look at its chart, every indicator, every analysis its a screaming sell. Might look good at a buy at $15.

Yes a good contrarian trade. I try and stick to buying companies with strong balance sheets and sometimes ignore the technicals at my own peril. I saw support around the $31 mark and just went for it. To me it looks better than QBE, another good performing stock over the last 5-10 years. COH is outperforming them both.

I can't see anything stopping the price slide if the US Market keeps falling and the AUS $ rising. Still there a buyers on the sidelines and if and when they choose the moment then it might get a good $4-5 bounce.

Yeah I agree with ROE comments on analysts, but people still listen to them.

Maybe CSL can invest its cash in some Uranium and CSG assets and make me a happy man...yeah right!

 

[Julia]

I haven't followed CSL for many months but was interested to hear on tonight's news that they have a vaccine for the dreaded swine flu. It still has to undergo clinical trials and get TGA approval, at least three months.
Should surely have a positive effect on the SP unless it's assumed the pig flu will be all over by the time the vaccine is marketable.