Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

[UMike]

Wednesday 26th Feb update

Total confirmed - 80,407
Total deaths - 2,708
Total recovered - 27, 878

https://gisanddata.maps.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashboard/index.html#/bda7594740fd40299423467b48e9ecf6​

That's a stat I don't here of often....... Total recovered.

 

[fergee]

I think we just need more time till we all hear "total recovered" some more. This is so new I think we are in the dark a bit until some more time passes and more data can be gathered to get better stats coming into the light. I have a feeling there are a lot of unreported cases where people just get a "mild cold" or recover on there own so they don't get added to the infected population.

As a percentage of the population being studied I think people who die from the virus will be far more accuratley represented than those who actually have had the virus then recover.

 

[moXJO]

I think we just need more time till we all hear "total recovered" some more. This is so new I think we are in the dark a bit until some more time passes and more data can be gathered to get better stats coming into the light. I have a feeling there are a lot of unreported cases where people just get a "mild cold" or recover on there own so they don't get added to the infected population.

As a percentage of the population being studied I think people who die from the virus will be far more accuratley represented than those who actually have had the virus then recover.

Media is really hamming it up now. Most people just get flu like symptoms. Lucky for us we will get to see the effects play out in other countries that reach a saturation point. Can then decided if we need to panic.

 

[Smurf1976]

Media is really hamming it up now. Most people just get flu like symptoms. Lucky for us we will get to see the effects play out in other countries that reach a saturation point. Can then decided if we need to panic.

Agreed in a medical sense.

In terms of financial markets and shortages of goods etc though well it seems akin to someone screaming "fire" in a crowded cinema or other such place. It's somewhat irrelevant whether or not there's actually a fire - if everyone's rushing to the exits then the biggest risk to you is being trampled to death not being burnt in the non-existent fire.

 

[sptrawler]

The risk relationship is interesting.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
From the article:
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE
DEATH RATE*
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities

 

[sptrawler]

I think we just need more time till we all hear "total recovered" some more. This is so new I think we are in the dark a bit until some more time passes and more data can be gathered to get better stats coming into the light. I have a feeling there are a lot of unreported cases where people just get a "mild cold" or recover on there own so they don't get added to the infected population.

As a percentage of the population being studied I think people who die from the virus will be far more accuratley represented than those who actually have had the virus then recover.

Don't be complacent, a vaccine will arrive, so don't get it in the first place IMO

 

[Knobby22]

Personally I am terrified.
My Mum, my parents in law, my eldest sister who is a severe asthmatic, my family, myself also an asthmatic.

We are lucky we are in Australia and so am more likely to control this and if we get it, decent medical care. Thankfully Morrison appears to have learnt from the bushfires.

Also, we are most likely to get the vaccine as the University of Queensland with CSL are the most advanced in developing one.
It is only a possibility though, No vaccine has ever been developed for the common cold.

In the Ukraine some tourists came in a bus and the locals attacked them throwing rocks. If the virus spread in that country, poorest in Europe, and in a war with Russia, the citizens could expect little medical help.

There is still some hope, the biggest in my view that the virus will attenuate as it spreads

All in all I think a lot of us are struggling with the full reality of the situation.

 

[qldfrog]

hand sanitizer is easy to make at home. Just 2:1 ration of methylated spirits to hand gel. U can get methylated spirits at BigW for $5 a liter.

I was wondering if methanol was the right alcool used in these.good tip, it makes sense, did not want to waste even cheap vodka

 

[qldfrog]

There is still some hope, the biggest in my view that the virus will attenuate as it spreads

That is wishful thinking it could very well get the other way, natural selection will remove strains which are very lethal but we are far from there.plenty of room to be much nastiér so you roll the dice.the Iranian strain is actually a worry as either more deadly .or the virus is already widespread.talk about cardiac effects there.
So much unknown.but plenty of reasons to be genuinely scared for anyone above 70 or weak relatives or loved one.Coupled with overextended stock markets and bubble economics, this could be the black swan with no fed can fight

All in all I think a lot of us are struggling with the full reality of the situation.

 

[Humid]

The risk relationship is interesting.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-age-sex-demographics/
From the article:
COVID-19 Fatality Rate by AGE:
*Death Rate = (number of deaths / number of cases) = probability of dying if infected by the virus (%). This probability differs depending on the age group. The percentage shown below does NOT represent in any way the share of deaths by age group. Rather, it represents, for a person in a given age group, the risk of dying if infected with COVID-19.

AGE
DEATH RATE*
80+ years old
14.8%
70-79 years old
8.0%
60-69 years old
3.6%
50-59 years old
1.3%
40-49 years old
0.4%
30-39 years old
0.2%
20-29 years old
0.2%
10-19 years old
0.2%
0-9 years old
no fatalities

I hope Tinhat isn’t behind this

 

[basilio]

A more measured approach to how people should be dealing the risk of the Corona Virus.
IMV well balanced

Explainer: how worried should I be about coronavirus in Australia?
Despite the lack of cases, people are still concerned about coronavirus in Australia. Here’s what you need to know
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ed-should-i-be-about-coronavirus-in-australia

 

[basilio]

So the Government announces a planned response to the threat of a Covid-19 epidemic in Oz.
How well equipped is our current system to implement such a response ?
Well worth checking out what we would probably know instinctively. And don't imagine the private health system offers any substantial resources.

Australian doctors warn of overwhelmed public health system in event of coronavirus pandemic
Health experts say Australia’s hospitals are already operating at capacity and there is no room for coronavirus surge

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ealth-system-in-event-of-coronavirus-pandemic

 

[macca]

Food for thought..................

<<50 TONS OF VITAMIN C TO WUHAN
China Using Vitamin C Against COVID
by Andrew W. Saul, Editor-in-Chief
Orthomolecular Medicine News Service
(OMNS February 23, 2020) We can all agree that 50 tons of vitamin C pretty much qualifies as a megadose. We can also likely agree that trucking 50 tons of vitamin C, straight into Wuhan, full in the face of the COVID-19 epidemic, qualifies as news.

The news media are not reporting this, or any other, significantly positive megavitamin news.>>

DSM is a major manufacturer or bulk vitamins based in China, they shipped 50 tons of Vit C to Wuhan

http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n13.shtml

meanwhile in the USA

<<Indeed, the World Health Organization (WHO) has, literally, met with Google and Facebook and other media giants to stop the spread of what they declare to be wrong information. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/14/facebook-google-amazon-met-with-who-to-talk-coronavirus-misinformation.html?__twitter_impression=true>>

but in China

Ironically, Facebook, blocking any significant users' sharing of the news of approved vitamin therapy research, is itself blocked in China by the Chinese government. As for the internet, yes, China has it. And yes, it is censored. But, significantly, the Chinese government has not blocked this real news on how intravenous vitamin C will save lives in the COVID-19 epidemic. Here is the protocol as published in Chinese: http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n11-chi.shtml

Now, where is that big pharma thread..............

we do not have a vaccine and cannot have a vaccine for many months if ever, in China they are testing mega doses of Vit C to ease the symptoms while people recover.

As Vit C is a known to be safe to use by most people, surely it is worth a try. Why is the news of China's current use of it labelled as fake news in USA by the WHO

Does make me wonder..........

 

[bellenuit]

So the Government announces a planned response to the threat of a Covid-19 epidemic in Oz.
How well equipped is our current system to implement such a response ?
Well worth checking out what we would probably know instinctively. And don't imagine the private health system offers any substantial resources.

Australian doctors warn of overwhelmed public health system in event of coronavirus pandemic
Health experts say Australia’s hospitals are already operating at capacity and there is no room for coronavirus surge

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...ealth-system-in-event-of-coronavirus-pandemic

Hospitals always are working to full capacity. By declaring the pandemic, I believe it gives the government certain powers that will be needed in case of a surge in infections. Initially it will allow them to requisition supplies that may be needed and they can identify resources that may need to be dedicated to containing the spread, such as declaring certain floors in hospitals for COVID-19 patients only.

I don't thinks any health system in the world would have the spare capacity sitting around to cater for a widespread pandemic such as what this may turn out to be.

 

[SirRumpole]

Hospitals always are working to full capacity. By declaring the pandemic, I believe it gives the government certain powers that will be needed in case of a surge in infections. Initially it will allow them to requisition supplies that may be needed and they can identify resources that may need to be dedicated to containing the spread, such as declaring certain floors in hospitals for COVID-19 patients only.

I don't thinks any health system in the world would have the spare capacity sitting around to cater for a widespread pandemic such as what this may turn out to be.

I wonder if those powers include taking over private hospitals, cancelling non urgent surgeries there and moving COVID patients in.

 

[fergee]

Food for thought..................

<<50 TONS OF VITAMIN C TO WUHAN
China Using Vitamin C Against COVID
by Andrew W. Saul, Editor-in-Chief
Orthomolecular Medicine News Service
(OMNS February 23, 2020) We can all agree that 50 tons of vitamin C pretty much qualifies as a megadose. We can also likely agree that trucking 50 tons of vitamin C, straight into Wuhan, full in the face of the COVID-19 epidemic, qualifies as news.

The news media are not reporting this, or any other, significantly positive megavitamin news.>>

DSM is a major manufacturer or bulk vitamins based in China, they shipped 50 tons of Vit C to Wuhan

http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n13.shtml

meanwhile in the USA

<<Indeed, the World Health Organization (WHO) has, literally, met with Google and Facebook and other media giants to stop the spread of what they declare to be wrong information. https://www.cnbc.com/amp/2020/02/14/facebook-google-amazon-met-with-who-to-talk-coronavirus-misinformation.html?__twitter_impression=true>>

but in China

Ironically, Facebook, blocking any significant users' sharing of the news of approved vitamin therapy research, is itself blocked in China by the Chinese government. As for the internet, yes, China has it. And yes, it is censored. But, significantly, the Chinese government has not blocked this real news on how intravenous vitamin C will save lives in the COVID-19 epidemic. Here is the protocol as published in Chinese: http://orthomolecular.org/resources/omns/v16n11-chi.shtml

Now, where is that big pharma thread..............

we do not have a vaccine and cannot have a vaccine for many months if ever, in China they are testing mega doses of Vit C to ease the symptoms while people recover.

As Vit C is a known to be safe to use by most people, surely it is worth a try. Why is the news of China's current use of it labelled as fake news in USA by the WHO

Does make me wonder..........

How much longer will the WHO be around for after the corna-virus blows over?

May be a case of WHO?

 

[sptrawler]

I wonder if those powers include taking over private hospitals, cancelling non urgent surgeries there and moving COVID patients in.

With something like this, I would say, that is a certainty.

 

[Smurf1976]

Updating this post from early Tuesday morning, so a bit under 4 days ago, with the latest figures (in brackets)

China = 77,150 (83,704)
South Korea = 833 (2,337)
Italy = 230 (655)
Japan = 154 (226)
Singapore = 89 (93)
Hong Kong = 79 (94)
Iran = 61 (270)
Thailand = 35 (41)
USA = 35 (60)
Taiwan = 30 (34)
Australia = 22 (23)
Malaysia = 22 (23)
Germany = 16 (48)
United Arab Emirates = 16 (19)
UK = 13 (? figures seem to have gone missing)
France = 12 (38)
Macau = 10 (10)
Canada = 9 (14)
Philippines = 3 (3)
India = 3 (3)
Russia = 2 (2)
Spain = 2 (25)
Lebanon = 1 (2)
Nepal = 1 (1)
Cambodia = 1 (1)
Israel = 1 (3)
Belgium = 1 (1)
Finland = 1 (2)
Sweden = 1 (7)
Egypt = 1 (1)
Sri Lanka = 1 (1)

I've highlighted those which have seen more than a 100% increase to a total which exceeds 10 cases.

South Korea, Italy and Iran have received some attention in the media but there's a very rapid increase underway in France and Germany too, both having tripled in the period of less than 4 days. With caution I'll mention Spain there too although that was starting from a very low base.

There's also plenty more countries which now have at least one case, and many which I haven't highlighted but which have nonetheless seen an increase. Of particular note among those with no reported cases 4 days ago are:

Kuwait (43)
Bahrain (33)
Vietnam (16)
Switzerland (8)
Iraq (7)
Oman (4)

They've all gone from nothing to several cases quite quickly and there seems to be a cluster of cases emerging in the Middle East quite broadly with multiple countries reporting significant numbers and a rapid increase.

Something I'm not aware of but others may know - do people living in the Middle East commonly travel to neighbouring countries? I've only been there as a tourist so don't know but if so then it would explain why it seems to be breaking out in multiple countries there.

I'm no doctor but at this point I think it's far too widespread to contain by means of restricting movement unless we do something truly drastic and by that I mean basically a curfew on the entire population in force 24/7. Other than something like that, it's hard to see how it can be stopped now given that most people live somewhere reasonably close to a location where there's at least one reported case.

 

[Smurf1976]

Thinking about this some more, I think those who are prepping (as they call it) might actually be the smart ones.

I'll pose a question: Who here expects to get some sort of cold, flu etc over the course of 2020?

Probably most people would think they've got at least a reasonable chance of that under normal circumstances.

Now I'll pose another question: Supposing that you have a cold, ordinary common flu or whatever, would you right at this moment feel comfortable walking into any shop? Or would you feel that there's substantial social pressure to self-isolate? Even if it's just a common cold, others seeing that you're ill don't know that and will have "corona virus" running through their mind as they avoid you.

The idea that the majority of the population are going to spend a week or two isolated at some point, with effectively zero notice, doesn't seem too far fetched. Even if it's just a cold, you're not really going to be at all comfortable going anywhere in public right now indeed it's entirely foreseeable that entering a public place whilst showing symptoms of illness is deemed illegal here in Australia.

Having a fortnight's worth of food and other essentials in the house would seem a wise precaution.

 

[Smurf1976]

Updating this post from early Tuesday morning, so a bit under 4 days ago, with the latest figures (in brackets)

Iran = 61 (270)

A few hours later and the Iran figure is now officially 388.

To the extent the virus is rapidly increasing, that's where it seems to be happening at present.