Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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bluekelah said:
thanks for your feedback on the ground. If you need masks you can still get some good ones(3M P2/N95 with valves) for double price on Ebay AU delivered. I suspect those will be gone and prices up once coronavirus hits it big time here.
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I ordered 2 sets from ebay 1rs5 surgical set at pre crisis price delivered within week all good
2nd set n95 plus cartridges ordered had tracking allocated and did not arrive.got money back.i suspect seller took it back and resell higher price.
This was more than a month ago
You can still order but i doubt you will receive anything..maybe after the crisis is over
 
qldfrog said:
First death in the USA.i would not be surprised if, as Italy, it is already spreading there in hiding
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For sure its gone community wide now, That first death was unknown origin in a care facility with other residents and staff sick with no way of testing them immediately yet. CDC there is already sending out test kits countrywide now but i doubt they can catch it in time.
 
My client this morning has a sister in epidemiology. Her and her colleagues think it will probably end up a pandemic similar to Spanish Flu. FWIW
 
A sense of perspective as Mr Tagliaferro says - there are up to 650,000 annual deaths from the flu. This isn't the Black Plague or Smallpox, nor anything like it. Soon enough there will be a vaccine.

Source:
https://www.morningstar.com.au/
Anton Tagliaferro, investment director at Investors Mutual Limited, on Friday detailed how the correction is affecting IML's portfolios.
...In times like these, Tagliaferro says there are a few things to bear in mind:
The correction is happening at a time when many sharemarkets around the world had reached record highs on investor optimism of continued world growth, with many stocks arguably in over-valued territory.

While the coronavirus is being taken very seriously by government authorities, so far the virus has led to around 3,000 deaths. To keep this in perspective, it is worth noting a 2017 World Health Organisation study attributed between 300,000 and 650,000 deaths per annum from the annual influenza virus...
 
So an extra 600,000 deaths per year after vaccine in 1 year or 2, how many before in your optimistic view?
Just very basic assumptions, no rocket sciences then how old and fit are you?your loved ones
Make your own opinion after
 
Logique said:
A sense of perspective as Mr Tagliaferro says - there are up to 650,000 annual deaths from the flu. This isn't the Black Plague or Smallpox, nor anything like it. Soon enough there will be a vaccine.

Source:
https://www.morningstar.com.au/
Anton Tagliaferro, investment director at Investors Mutual Limited, on Friday detailed how the correction is affecting IML's portfolios.
...In times like these, Tagliaferro says there are a few things to bear in mind:
The correction is happening at a time when many sharemarkets around the world had reached record highs on investor optimism of continued world growth, with many stocks arguably in over-valued territory.

While the coronavirus is being taken very seriously by government authorities, so far the virus has led to around 3,000 deaths. To keep this in perspective, it is worth noting a 2017 World Health Organisation study attributed between 300,000 and 650,000 deaths per annum from the annual influenza virus...
Click to expand...
If it's contained in time, it will fizzle and everyone will wonder what all the fuss was about. Authorities here seem a bit complacent. A few cases here where they didn't quarantine anyone and let them keep working after being exposed.

I'm still undecided on the public health overall.
Initially I thought it was low risk. Now it's watch and adjust.

Economy on the other hand will take a beating either way.
 
Logique said:
A sense of perspective as Mr Tagliaferro says - there are up to 650,000 annual deaths from the flu. This isn't the Black Plague or Smallpox, nor anything like it. Soon enough there will be a vaccine.

Source:
https://www.morningstar.com.au/
Anton Tagliaferro, investment director at Investors Mutual Limited, on Friday detailed how the correction is affecting IML's portfolios.
...In times like these, Tagliaferro says there are a few things to bear in mind:
The correction is happening at a time when many sharemarkets around the world had reached record highs on investor optimism of continued world growth, with many stocks arguably in over-valued territory.

While the coronavirus is being taken very seriously by government authorities, so far the virus has led to around 3,000 deaths. To keep this in perspective, it is worth noting a 2017 World Health Organisation study attributed between 300,000 and 650,000 deaths per annum from the annual influenza virus...
Click to expand...
The thing is influenza is basically endemic and has a kill rate of about 0.1%, COVID19 is only at the beginning and had a kill rate of 2-3%.

If it can be contained we're all good, that remains to be seen.

Personally I am less concerned than most, but watching closely, like all of us.
 
wayneL said:
The thing is influenza is basically endemic and has a kill rate of about 0.1%, COVID19 is only at the beginning and had a kill rate of 2-3%
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That is the criticial point isn't it ? A new disease with no immunity or vaccine that could spread as far as flu but kills 20 to 30 times as many people and to date causes serious hospitalising illness to around 20% of those who catch it.

We have seen what has happened to China and they have thrown absolutely everything they have to control its spread and treat the sufferers. This is not a hypothetical situation.
 
wayneL said:
The thing is influenza is basically endemic and has a kill rate of about 0.1%
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This is an accurate figure determine after a long time duration.

wayneL said:
COVID19 is only at the beginning and had a kill rate of 2-3%.
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This is an immature figure and could be highly inaccurate, with only 2 months of data.
My personal take is this :
The death rate in China is significantly higher than what has been reported say by a factor of x5.
However, I think the infection rate is significantly higher in China by a factor of at least x10.

So until we have more time and more accurate data, know one, know the real figures, I am guessing sub <2%. With the vast majority of deaths coming from people >70 years old.
 
Logique said:
A sense of perspective as Mr Tagliaferro says - there are up to 650,000 annual deaths from the flu. This isn't the Black Plague or Smallpox, nor anything like it. Soon enough there will be a vaccine.

Source:
https://www.morningstar.com.au/
Anton Tagliaferro, investment director at Investors Mutual Limited, on Friday detailed how the correction is affecting IML's portfolios.
...In times like these, Tagliaferro says there are a few things to bear in mind:
The correction is happening at a time when many sharemarkets around the world had reached record highs on investor optimism of continued world growth, with many stocks arguably in over-valued territory.

While the coronavirus is being taken very seriously by government authorities, so far the virus has led to around 3,000 deaths. To keep this in perspective, it is worth noting a 2017 World Health Organisation study attributed between 300,000 and 650,000 deaths per annum from the annual influenza virus...
Click to expand...
Fund managers have to say that. Douglass at Magellan, and many others are coming out with risk unaware crap. If they sell, then buying back is a nightmare, because they have to Time The Market twice. And they can't do it even once. Different story dropping a few thousand and offloading multiple millions.

If the virus gets hold, 2% death rate is half a million in this country. With only 4000 ICU beds in the country, a lot of people are going to be without grandparents.
 
satanoperca said:
This is an accurate figure determine after a long time duration.


This is an immature figure and could be highly inaccurate, with only 2 months of data.
My personal take is this :
The death rate in China is significantly higher than what has been reported say by a factor of x5.
However, I think the infection rate is significantly higher in China by a factor of at least x10.

So until we have more time and more accurate data, know one, know the real figures, I am guessing sub <2%. With the vast majority of deaths coming from people >70 years old.
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That's a good point and will need some time to tease that out.
 
wayneL said:
That's a good point and will need some time to tease that out.
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Maybe... Maybe not. Perhaps 80,000 infections and treatments is a reasonable indicator until we reach a few million. In the circumstances I would take current information as the guidelines until proven way wrong.

Of more concern is the fact that the treatment to date seems to have been as good if not better than most countries in the world and certainly better than most third world countries and what is available to most US citizens with little insurance.
 
basilio said:
Maybe... Maybe not. Perhaps 80,000 infections and treatments is a reasonable indicator until we reach a few million. In the circumstances I would take current information as the guidelines until proven way wrong.

Of more concern is the fact that the treatment to date seems to have been as good if not better than most countries in the world and certainly better than most third world countries and what is available to most US citizens with little insurance.
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It's early days and we are in the realm of chaos theory, as far as where this develops. 80000 may be the tip of the iceberg at the moment, and there are jurisdictions which are not as thorough as our own.

The humanitarian aspect aside, as investors all we can really do is keep monitoring the information as it comes to light.

I have certain expectations where this may go but they could be absolutely wrong, so keeping an ear to the ground and hope everyone here does not succumb
 
satanoperca said:
This is an accurate figure determine after a long time duration.
This is an immature figure and could be highly inaccurate, with only 2 months of data.
My personal take is this :
The death rate in China is significantly higher than what has been reported say by a factor of x5.
However, I think the infection rate is significantly higher in China by a factor of at least x10.
So until we have more time and more accurate data, know one, know the real figures, I am guessing sub <2%. With the vast majority of deaths coming from people >70 years old.
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Indeed Satanoperca, I think that's a fair guesstimate. As you imply, the mortality rate in the First World has been much less than in the Third World, i.e. comparison of China & Iran Vs Australia & US/UK.

Influenza can carry away 78 year olds too - with great respect to that Aussie gent and his family this month.
 
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