Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

[bellenuit]

I think you missed the point.
With all the vaccinations throughout the world, a better treatment regime, and with two months of the year to go, the deaths are significantly higher.

Again, it is you who is missing the point. You are comparing almost 11 months of the current year against 9 months of the last year. It was end of March last year that the virus started to spread as is obvious from the graph. So first compare apples with apples. It is also clear if you take similar time durations, 1st March to December 31st last year compared to 1st January to Sept 30th this year, the cumulative death toll this year is similar if not less, not significantly higher.

If the provisions that have been taken, including vaccinations, deaths should be trailing off, or at worst stabilising. They obviously are not, they are increasing.

Death will always be increasing, if you are looking at a cumulative death count graph. But they do appear to be tapering off somewhat as we near year end. The problem is the provisions have not been taken to a large extent in many areas of the States and the effectiveness of the vaccine is now starting to wane, so a booster will be necessary.

Whether the deaths come from vaccinated or unvaccinated , they are still deaths.

You seem to be implying that is not relevant. That is very relevant.

What we cannot see in these graphs is the what the death toll would have been if no measures were taken and no vaccine was available.

 

[wayneL]

Docs with rocks

 

[mullokintyre]

Again, it is you who is missing the point. You are comparing almost 11 months of the current year against 9 months of the last year. It was end of March last year that the virus started to spread as is obvious from the graph. So first compare apples with apples. It is also clear if you take similar time durations, 1st March to December 31st last year compared to 1st January to Sept 30th this year, the cumulative death toll this year is similar if not less, not significantly higher.

The point I was trying to make is that despite all the vaccines, the lockdowns, the masks, the improved care, the new treatment regimes etc,
the toll is not going down. There are also some 48 million Americans who caught the virus.
Those who survived, around 47.3 million, will have had some form of immunity as well.

If you look at he table of data for countries, none have managed to reduce the incidence.
Mick

 

[basilio]

A new COVID variant has emerged in South Africa. Cross fingers and toes that it hasn't broken out of Africa (or Hong Kong) yet.

COVID-19 variant described as 'worst one yet' emerges in South Africa, prompting UK to ban travel from six countries​

Key points:​

• The variant contains a different spike protein to the one vaccines were based on
• Scientists say its mutations could make it more infectious
• The UK has temporarily banned flights from South Africa and five other countries

New COVID-19 variant described as 'worst one yet' emerges in South Africa

Britain bans travellers from six countries as scientists identify a new coronavirus variant they say has mutations likely to make it more infectious and resistant to vaccines.

www.abc.net.au

 

[wayneL]

Link to article below,which contains all references etc:

******
Fully referenced facts about covid-19, provided by experts in the field, to help our readers make a realistic risk assessment. (Regular updates below).

“The only means to fight the plague is honesty.” (Albert Camus, 1947)

Overview
Lethality: According to the latest immunological studies, the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) of covid in the general population is about 0.1% to 0.5% in most countries, which is most closely comparable to the medium influenza pandemics of 1936, 1957 and 1968.
Vaccines: Real-world studies have shown a very high, but rapidly declining covid vaccine effectiveness against severe disease. Vaccination cannot prevent infection and transmission. Various severe and fatal vaccine adverse events have been reported, including in young people. A prior infection generally confers superior immunity compared to vaccination.
Treatment: For people at high risk or high exposure, early or prophylactic treatment is essential to prevent progression of the disease. According to numerous international studies, early outpatient treatment of covid may significantly reduce hospitalizations and deaths.
Age profile: The median age of covid deaths is over 80 years in most Western countries (78 in the US) and about 5% of the deceased had no serious preconditions. The age and risk profile of covid mortality is therefore comparable to normal mortality, but increases it proportionally.
Nursing homes: In many Western countries, about 50% of all covid deaths have occurred in nursing homes, which require targeted and humane protection. In some cases, care home residents died not from the coronavirus, but from weeks of stress and isolation.
Excess mortality: Overall, the pandemic has increased mortality by 5% to 25% in most Western countries. In some countries, up to 30% of additional deaths have been caused not by covid, but by indirect effects of the pandemic and lockdowns (including drug overdose deaths).
Antibodies: By the end of 2020, between 10% and 30% of the population in most Western countries had coronavirus antibodies. In India and some Latin American countries, coronavirus infection prevalence reached up to 75% by the summer of 2021.
Symptoms: About 30% of all infected persons show no symptoms. Overall, about 95% of all people develop at most mild or moderate symptoms and do not require hospitalization. Early outpatient treatment may significantly reduce hospitalizations.
Long covid: Up to 10% of symptomatic people experience post-acute or long covid, i.e. covid-related symptoms that last several weeks or months. Long covid may also affect younger and previously healthy people whose initial course of disease was rather mild.
Transmission: Indoor aerosols appear to be the main route of transmission of the coronavirus, while outdoor aerosols, droplets, as well as most object surfaces appear to play a minor role. The coronavirus season in the northern hemisphere usually lasts from November to April.
Masks: There is still little to no scientific evidence for the effectiveness of face masks in the general population, and the introduction of mandatory masks couldn’t contain or slow the epidemic in most countries. If used improperly, masks may increase the risk of infection.
Children and schools: In contrast to influenza, the risk of disease and transmission in children is rather low in the case of covid. There was and is therefore no medical reason for the closure of elementary schools or other measures specifically aimed at children.
Contact tracing: A WHO study of 2019 on measures against influenza pandemics concluded that from a medical perspective, contact tracing is “not recommended in any circumstances”. Contact tracing apps on cell phones have also proven ineffective in most countries.
PCR tests: The highly sensitive PCR test kits may in some cases produce false positive or false negative results or react to non-infectious virus fragments from a previous infection. In this regard, the so-called cycle threshold or ct value is an important parameter.
Virus mutations: Similar to influenza viruses, mutations occur frequently in coronaviruses. Most of these mutations are insignificant, but some of them may increase the transmissibility, virulence or immune evasion of the virus to some extent.
Lockdowns: In contrast to early border controls, lockdowns have had no significant effect on the pandemic. According to the UN, lockdowns may put the livelihood of 1.6 billion people at acute risk and may push an additional 150 million children into poverty.
Sweden: In Sweden, covid mortality in 2020, without lockdown, was comparable to a strong influenza season and somewhat below the EU average. About 50% of Swedish deaths occurred in nursing homes and the median age of Swedish covid deaths was about 84 years.
Media: The reporting of many media has been unprofessional, has increased fear and panic in the population and has led to a hundredfold overestimation of the lethality of the coronavirus. Some media even used manipulative pictures and videos to dramatize the situation.
Virus origin: The origin of the new coronavirus remains unknown, but the best evidence currently points to a covid-like pneumonia incident in a Chinese mine in 2012, whose virus samples were collected, stored and researched by the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). Due to cooperations, some US labs may also have had access to these viruses.
Surveillance: NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden warned that the coronavirus pandemic may be used to expand global surveillance. Many governments have restricted fundamental rights of their citizens and announced plans to introduce digital biometric vaccine passports.

Facts about Covid

Fully referenced facts about Covid-19.

swprs.org

 

[sptrawler]

Back at the beginning of this thread we said the virus could morph into something ugly, if it got a hold in Africa.
It sounds as though it is happening.


#92 page 5 on the 23/02/2020

If it gets into Africa, there could be problems, HIV is still pretty rampant there from what I've read.

Today 26/11/2021

A new COVID variant has emerged in South Africa. Cross fingers and toes that it hasn't broken out of Africa (or Hong Kong) yet.

COVID-19 variant described as 'worst one yet' emerges in South Africa, prompting UK to ban travel from six countries​

Key points:​

• The variant contains a different spike protein to the one vaccines were based on
• Scientists say its mutations could make it more infectious
• The UK has temporarily banned flights from South Africa and five other countries

New COVID-19 variant described as 'worst one yet' emerges in South Africa

Britain bans travellers from six countries as scientists identify a new coronavirus variant they say has mutations likely to make it more infectious and resistant to vaccines.

www.abc.net.au

 

[mullokintyre]

The latest in Anti covid measures

 

[basilio]

The South Africian variant is moving rapidly. This second story highlights the rate of spread of this new version. Already in Hong Kong as well.

South Africa to be put on England’s travel red list over new Covid variant

Flights from six countries will be banned as officials review travel measures after scientists voice concern over variant

www.theguardian.com

 

[wayneL]

Back at the beginning of this thread we said the virus could morph into something ugly, if it got a hold in Africa.
It sounds as though it is happening.


#92 page 5 on the 23/02/2020



Today 26/11/2021

A new COVID variant has emerged in South Africa. Cross fingers and toes that it hasn't broken out of Africa (or Hong Kong) yet.

The thing is SP, this is not the first time "they" have jumped the shark with regards to coronavirus mutations.

As it happens I have a client originally from Botswana who actually works in the medical field, and still has family over there. A couple of phone calls revealed (in her family members opinion at least) that it has been blown out of all proportion.

And we have been here before with with a few other Greek letters.

I think it would pay to take a few steps back and view this with some healthy cynicism.... And I would encourage folks to read my post above also.

 

[IFocus]

The point I was trying to make is that despite all the vaccines, the lockdowns, the masks, the improved care, the new treatment regimes etc,
the toll is not going down. There are also some 48 million Americans who caught the virus.
Those who survived, around 47.3 million, will have had some form of immunity as well.

If you look at he table of data for countries, none have managed to reduce the incidence.
Mick

Haven't looked for a while however when I did the death rate and positive test rate had detached trend wise from each other in counties with high vax rates.

The US vax rate is actually quite low and some states that have very low vax rates and are still getting hammered.

Spain vax rates are quite high I assume its death rate is quite low (haven't checked) as a result.

European countries that are going back into lock downs vax rates are around 60% (Austria from memory) similar to the US.

All the measures put in place in Australia clearly have had an effect looking at the death rate even if it gives many a false sense of security and and reason for aggression against state authorities.

Note that the most aggressive measure was shutting the overseas border to Australia passport holders who want to come home, only country in the world to do so... hardly a whisper about it?

Politics anyone?

 

[sptrawler]

The thing is SP, this is not the first time "they" have jumped the shark with regards to coronavirus mutations.

As it happens I have a client originally from Botswana who actually works in the medical field, and still has family over there. A couple of phone calls revealed (in her family members opinion at least) that it has been blown out of all proportion.

And we have been here before with with a few other Greek letters.

I think it would pay to take a few steps back and view this with some healthy cynicism.... And I would encourage folks to read my post above also.

I don't disagree with you, also I really was reluctant to get the vaccine, however if this virus picks up a nasty mutation that increases the mortality rate, then we aren't talking about the same virus.

The original strain was having very low death rate and it was really only affecting the elderly, or those with underlying respiratory issues.

The worldwide response appeared overblown or under explained, now with the new outbreaks in areas of the world that have high vaccination rates, it is becoming obvious either the immunity is waning or the vaccine is no longer effective as the virus changes.

The one thing that was blantantly obvious from the beginning was, it is highly contagious, if the fatality rate can be increased well it could be a game changer.
Say it picks up the testse virus I think there are about 200 strains, or the HIV virus or even ebola and is as contagious as covid 19, well it will be interesting to say the least. Long covid will be the least of peoples problems, long HIV or long Tsetse fever would really be a pain in the butt and I'm not sure there is long ebola.

The U.K has already shut its borders to flights from Africa, it wouldn't surprise me to see that many countries will follow suit.

UK bans travel to South Africa over new Covid variant

The UK government has placed South Africa and five other countries onto its travel ‘red list’ following the emergence of a new Covid-19 variant in Southern Africa.

businesstech.co.za

 

[wayneL]

I don't disagree with you, also I really was reluctant to get the vaccine, however if this virus picks up a nasty mutation that increases the mortality rate, then we aren't talking about the same virus.

The original strain was having very low death rate and it was really only affecting the elderly, or those with underlying respiratory issues.

The worldwide response appeared overblown or under explained, now with the new outbreaks in areas of the world that have high vaccination rates, it is becoming obvious either the immunity is waning or the vaccine is no longer effective as the virus changes.

The one thing that was blantantly obvious from the beginning was, it is highly contagious, if the fatality rate can be increased well it could be a game changer.
Say it picks up the testse virus I think there are about 200 strains, or the HIV virus and is as contagious as covid 19, well it will be interesting to say the least. Long covid will be the least of peoples problems, long HIV or long Tsetse fever would really be a pain in the butt.
The U.K has already shut its borders to flights from Africa, it wouldn't surprise me to see that many countries will follow suit.

UK bans travel to South Africa over new Covid variant

The UK government has placed South Africa and five other countries onto its travel ‘red list’ following the emergence of a new Covid-19 variant in Southern Africa.

businesstech.co.za

That can happen with any virus though... and assuming these new mutations are as radical as represented, the injections are probably useless against it anyway.

One thing is for sure that if they try the whole lockdown cycle again, they are going to have to declare martial law, because we the people are not going to tolerate it without being threatened by a large, armed military presence.

I have my own hypothesis about this new strain, but will just stfu about it for now.

 

[sptrawler]

That can happen with any virus though... and assuming these new mutations are as radical as represented, the injections are probably useless against it anyway.

One thing is for sure that if they try the whole lockdown cycle again, they are going to have to declare martial law, because we the people are not going to tolerate it without being threatened by a large, armed military presence.

I have my own hypothesis about this new strain, but will just stfu about it for now.

The wife and I had the vaccine because we want to get back into travelling, we are getting time poor
However if the new escalation causes another extension of the hard borders, we definitely wont be having a booster, until the ridiculous situation is resolved one way or the other.

 

[rederob]

Overview
Lethality: According to the latest immunological studies, the overall infection fatality rate (IFR) of covid in the general population is about 0.1% to 0.5% in most countries, which is most closely comparable to the medium influenza pandemics of 1936, 1957 and 1968.

The first claim incorrect and the second point is cherry picking. The IFR varies in the range of 0.5% to 1.0% based on global data.
The IFR for seasonal flu is about one order of magnitude less.

A prior infection generally confers superior immunity compared to vaccination.

May be true - not enough data and there are many different vaccines in use. But where is the sense in choosing a path more likely to lead to hospitalisation or death?

Age profile: The median age of covid deaths is over 80 years in most Western countries (78 in the US) and about 5% of the deceased had no serious preconditions.

This is in part a legacy issue. Delta has changed the mix, eg in India 35% of the deaths were recorded in the age group of 45-60 years. It is a false premise to assume your age or health makes you bullet proof.

The age and risk profile of covid mortality is therefore comparable to normal mortality, but increases it proportionally.

This is false and based on the trivial fact that age is significantly proportional to death. Excess death rates give the lie to this misconception.

Nursing homes: In many Western countries, about 50% of all covid deaths have occurred in nursing homes, which require targeted and humane protection. In some cases, care home residents died not from the coronavirus, but from weeks of stress and isolation.

Possibly true, but based on a guess. Not everyone who died was tested for covid, and this also became a big issue in New York State when covid ravaged in 2020.

Excess mortality: Overall, the pandemic has increased mortality by 5% to 25% in most Western countries. In some countries, up to 30% of additional deaths have been caused not by covid, but by indirect effects of the pandemic and lockdowns (including drug overdose deaths).

No data to support this latter claim. In fact covid deaths may be higher due to misclassifications, while in some cases non-covid deaths can be attributed to hospital overload from covid patients preventing illnesses being diagnosed, or critical care and surgeries being timely.

Overall, about 95% of all people develop at most mild or moderate symptoms and do not require hospitalization.

Currently in Australia just over 4% of active cases are hospitalised, with 0.6% in ICU. If you think this is in any way comparable to seasonal flu then you are delusional. Luckily Australia has a very low case count as if we got to US percentages our hospitals would be overrun.

Masks: There is still little to no scientific evidence for the effectiveness of face masks in the general population, and the introduction of mandatory masks couldn’t contain or slow the epidemic in most countries. If used improperly, masks may increase the risk of infection.

These are completely BS claims. The reason masks are mandated is due to proven effectiveness.

Lockdowns: In contrast to early border controls, lockdowns have had no significant effect on the pandemic.

You won't convince people in WA, SA, Qld, or Tas that this is true. Compliance in NSW was a major factor in getting numbers to manageable levels.

Sweden: In Sweden, covid mortality in 2020, without lockdown, was comparable to a strong influenza season and somewhat below the EU average. About 50% of Swedish deaths occurred in nursing homes and the median age of Swedish covid deaths was about 84 years.

This chestnut needs to be taken with a pinch of salt. All other Nordic nations did better.

Media: The reporting of many media has been unprofessional, has increased fear and panic in the population and has led to a hundredfold overestimation of the lethality of the coronavirus.

Whereas this link would have you believe covid is a bit like the flu.

Virus origin: The origin of the new coronavirus remains unknown, but the best evidence currently points to a covid-like pneumonia incident in a Chinese mine in 2012, whose virus samples were collected, stored and researched by the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV). Due to cooperations, some US labs may also have had access to these viruses.

This is BS. The best evidence suggests an intermediary of unknown origin.

Surveillance: NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden warned that the coronavirus pandemic may be used to expand global surveillance. Many governments have restricted fundamental rights of their citizens and announced plans to introduce digital biometric vaccine passports.

This is where the link shows its true colours. Covid is a global pandemic which to date has affected a very small proportion of the population. Vaccines are an imperfect panacea. Anyone doubting this can look at how high rates of vaccination in Gibraltar have led to extremely low death rates. Governments have a key role in protecting the lives of its citizens, so in the absence of a silver bullet it makes sense to prioritise vaccinations and the vaccinated over those who choose a different path.

There are lots of sites which provide reasonable explanations of the data and science relating to covid, and a semblance of balance. As is often the case @wayneL has found one which is loaded with misinformation and abysmal analysis.

 

[wayneL]

The mind boggles

 

[sptrawler]

The U.K has already shut its borders to flights from Africa, it wouldn't surprise me to see that many countries will follow suit.

UK bans travel to South Africa over new Covid variant

The UK government has placed South Africa and five other countries onto its travel ‘red list’ following the emergence of a new Covid-19 variant in Southern Africa.

businesstech.co.za

Well what do you know, get ready to batten down the hatches. ?

Australian health authorities won’t hesitate to shut border to South Africa

Health Minister Greg Hunt said the country would not hesitate to block flights from South Africa if health experts are concerned about the new coronavirus variant.

www.smh.com.au

 

[wayneL]

Well what do you know, get ready to batten down the hatches. ?

Australian health authorities won’t hesitate to shut border to South Africa

Health Minister Greg Hunt said the country would not hesitate to block flights from South Africa if health experts are concerned about the new coronavirus variant.

www.smh.com.au

.... Rinse... Repeat...

Until people wake the fark up.

 

[rederob]

.... Rinse... Repeat...

Until people wake the fark up.

Border closures are being lifted as vaccination rates increase.
People choosing to not to vaccinate delay the milestones and continue the theme of border closures.

 

[DB008]

COVID-19 variant described as 'worst one yet' emerges in South Africa, prompting UK to ban travel from six countries​

Depends where you get your news from l guess.

32 mutations in the spike protein. Interesting.

​

 

[basilio]

Depends where you get your news from l guess.

32 mutations in the spike protein. Interesting.

​

To date most people have followed the advice of doctors and scientists who have extensive understanding of the COVID virus and how it has affected people. We have also watched how COVID to date has ravaged communities around the world so these are facts on the ground.

And then we have the others. Those who have relentlessly undermined the dangers of the COVID virus. Who have tried to paint it as a little flu. Who have promoted ranges of cures that are simply mirages or outright dangers to health.

And many of these same actors have now systematically undermined community confidence in vaccines that will offer substantial protection against catching the disease and reduce the impact of the disease. Not a perfect solution but the best one we have right now. The relentless trashing of vaccination is not cool.
---------------------------------------------------

But back to video. This doctor isn't an anti vaxxer. He doesn't undermine the seriousness of COVID. He is trying to say that we don't know for sure yet how dangerous this new variant is in terms of infection and virulence. So he thinks we shouldn't be stopping travel from South Africa. His argument is this decision is hurting poor people in South Africa. (Hmm ? )

He highlights all the other variations that have come up that amounted to nothing. Quite true. But I think the scientists who noted these variations believed, on the evidence, that they didn't represent a more substantial risk. Yes worth keeping an eye on but don't lose too much sleep over it.

However those same scientists and doctors are not as sanguine about this new COVID version. It appears far more infectious. It's too early to tell if it is more virulant. And they are still dangerously unsure about whether current vaccines will protect against it.

So with all that legitimate uncertainty I think the precautionary approach of stopping travel, quarantining anyone who has come from the area and keeping an extra close eye on this variant as it spreads in Africa makes perfect sense.

Frankly I'm really disappointed he couldn't respect and support that position.