Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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IFocus said:
Further to the above a reminder of Ken Henrys simulus was house holds to support retail who at the time were the biggest employers.

Much has been said after how mining saved the day, a reminder mining shed 13% to 19% plus of its workforce luckily it wasn't a major employer at the time.

Mining came to the fore long after the storm past and was a major contributor in the recovery.
Click to expand...
I was employed in mining at the time and I do not remember much job being shed at all:
past the first month or so of general panic, prices went up and boom carried on, the real crisis happened in Qld much later with lower coal price etc
The AUD fell and AUD coal price per tonne was lower than the peak but even in 2009 was basically at current level...aka very high considering it was 11y ago...
upload_2020-3-10_15-55-12.png

So yes, Australia or qld at least was saved by the Chinese stimulus
 
“In the first six months of 2009, in the immediate aftermath of the shock waves occasioned by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the Australian mining industry shed 15.2 per cent of its employees. Had every industry in Australia behaved in the same way, our unemployment rate would have increased from 4.6 per cent to 19 per cent in six months. Mining investment collapsed; mining output collapsed. So the Australian mining industry had quite a deep recession while the Australian economy did not have a recession.” (Page E17.)

https://www.tai.org.au/content/did-mining-boom-save-australia-gfc-check-facts
 
Jeez IFocus, the Australian Institute :rolleyes: any further left and they would fall over IMO.
Now for a more thorough explanation from the RBA.
https://www.rba.gov.au/education/resources/explainers/the-global-financial-crisis.html
From the article:
Australia and the GFC
Relatively strong economic performance
Australia did not experience a large economic downturn or a financial crisis during the GFC. However, the pace of economic growth did slow significantly, the unemployment rate rose sharply and there was a period of heightened uncertainty. The relatively strong performance of the Australian economy and financial system during the GFC, compared with other countries, reflected a range of factors, including:

  • Australian banks had very small exposures to the US housing market and US banks, partly because domestic lending was very profitable.
  • Subprime and other high-risk loans were only a small share of lending in Australia, partly because of the historical focus on lending standards by the Australian banking regulator (the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority (APRA)).
  • Australia's economy was buoyed by large resource exports to China, whose economy rebounded quickly after the initial GFC shock (mainly due to expansionary fiscal policy).
Also a large policy response
Despite the Australian financial system being in a much better position before the GFC, given the magnitude of the shock to the global economy and to confidence more broadly, there was also a large policy response in Australia to ensure that the economy did not suffer a major downturn. In particular, the Reserve Bank lowered the cash rate significantly, and the Australian Government undertook expansionary fiscal policy and provided guarantees on deposits at and bonds issued by Australian banks.

Following the crisis, APRA implemented the stronger global banking regulations in Australia. Together, APRA and the financial market and corporate regulator, the Australian Securities and Investments Commission, have also strengthened lending standards to make the financial and private sectors more resilient.

Big Kev just couldn't miss an opportunity and we have been recovering from it ever since.
 
It looks like you can earn some money, if you get infected with corona virus.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...don-pay-volunteers-3-500-develop-vaccine.html
From the article:
Get PAID to have coronavirus: Scientists in London will pay volunteers £3,500 to be infected in experiments to develop a vaccine for the deadly virus
  • Scientists based in Whitechapel will recruit 24 members of the public
  • The study will test if a jab developed by Hvivo will successfully fight COVID-19
  • Participants will be injected with two weaker strains of the coronavirus
  • Some 20 vaccines are in development and the UK government will fund £46m
  • Volunteers could be paid £3,500 to be infected with the coronavirus as scientists race to find a vaccine.
The testing is part of a $2bn global effort to find a vaccine for coronavirus, as Europe has experienced a huge surge in cases in the past two weeks.
 
sptrawler said:
It looks like you can earn some money, if you get infected with corona virus.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...don-pay-volunteers-3-500-develop-vaccine.html
From the article:
Get PAID to have coronavirus: Scientists in London will pay volunteers £3,500 to be infected in experiments to develop a vaccine for the deadly virus
  • Scientists based in Whitechapel will recruit 24 members of the public
  • The study will test if a jab developed by Hvivo will successfully fight COVID-19
  • Participants will be injected with two weaker strains of the coronavirus
  • Some 20 vaccines are in development and the UK government will fund £46m
  • Volunteers could be paid £3,500 to be infected with the coronavirus as scientists race to find a vaccine.
The testing is part of a $2bn global effort to find a vaccine for coronavirus, as Europe has experienced a huge surge in cases in the past two weeks.
Click to expand...

Wow is direct human testing allowed without testing on animals first?
 
IFocus said:
“In the first six months of 2009, in the immediate aftermath of the shock waves occasioned by the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the Australian mining industry shed 15.2 per cent of its employees. Had every industry in Australia behaved in the same way, our unemployment rate would have increased from 4.6 per cent to 19 per cent in six months. Mining investment collapsed; mining output collapsed. So the Australian mining industry had quite a deep recession while the Australian economy did not have a recession.” (Page E17.)

https://www.tai.org.au/content/did-mining-boom-save-australia-gfc-check-facts
Click to expand...
ah well must be true if they say it, was just working at BHP at the time and must have been living the dream
 
qldfrog said:
I was employed in mining at the time and I do not remember much job being shed at all:
past the first month or so of general panic, prices went up and boom carried on, the real crisis happened in Qld much later with lower coal price etc
The AUD fell and AUD coal price per tonne was lower than the peak but even in 2009 was basically at current level...aka very high considering it was 11y ago...
View attachment 101176
So yes, Australia or Qld at least was saved by the Chinese stimulus
Click to expand...
upload_2020-3-10_18-59-11.png

production increasing until 2010..so no reduction in production here
Anyway, sure tai knows better
 
Humid said:
Contractors were thinned out pretty quickly in WA and all non essentials not staff
Click to expand...
Unfortunately whenever a company sees a cloud on the horizon, the contractors get laid off, even if a storm isn't coming.:xyxthumbs
That's one of the reasons contractors usually get paid pretty well.:D
 
Humid said:
Contractors were thinned out pretty quickly in WA and all non essentials not staff
Click to expand...

I remember it was carnage in WA.

What people get mixed up about is the mining boom which certainly helped but employees were dumped had that been retail then the GFC would have been a very different out come for Australia.
 
bluekelah said:
experts put the eventual disease prevalence anywhere from 30% to 70%. It might even be 100% eventually given this is a novel virus non of us have immunity to unlike flu viruses where we might have had it in previous seasons or had flu shots.

As i said, lets give this virus a few months to run through our population of 25million and see whether we get 10million cases eventually.

The only reason COvid19 hasnt even reached one million cases is because of effective draconian lockdown efforts in china. THey have 1.25billion people, and if it got out of control it wouldnt just be millions of cases but tens of millions of cases.
Click to expand...

This is the sort of crap that is adding to the problem.

"experts put the eventual disease prevalence anywhere from 30% to 70%." Who are the expects and what does these % mean. Just more bull--it

Again, just crap with no meaning.
"25million and see whether we get 10million cases eventually.". It can effect 100% of the population, that is 25M people, if all they get is a headache for 24 hours who cares.

"The only reason COvid19 hasnt even reached one million cases is because of effective draconian lockdown efforts in china."
Well we could say that about the ASX not getting to 10,000. More meaningless statements, could of, would of, might be, maybe, if the aliens come down we could see....bla bla bla.

"THey have 1.25billion people," Well you got one thing correct.

But lets play your next crap statement:
"it wouldnt just be millions of cases but tens of millions of cases." so can we say 30M people infected out of 1.3B, 2.3% of the population and out of them so will die.

Global warming has a chance.

So Bluey, can anything to add to a constructive conversation on the real impact of this situation other than 2 dollar journalism.
 
Anyway, during the gfc, mining output continued to rise, China stimulus bumped us up, and local incentives plus plunging in debt ensured most kept their jobs and RE kept running
Not as easy to bump an economy in lockdown.no point giving money if shops and restaurant are closed.this is more survival than stimulus money, and we might need it.
 
The corona virus is out of control in Italy. The government has effectively put the place in quarantine.
To understand the breadth of that decision and then consider the impact on the economy check out the story below.

I came across a very interesting Chinese blog site from Beijing. They have been under a similar regime for around 6 weeks now. 21 million people effectively locked down. The result has been a successful reduction of the corona virus but n fact there have been no more than 400 cases to cases. Italy has over 7000 and multiplying.

If this gets away in Australia we will also have the choice of similar closure of almost all sporting, cultural and social activities or taking a punt of dealing with teh effects of an unstopped nation wide infection with around around a 1-2% fatality rate.

Don't travel, don't socialise, stay inside: Italy's coronavirus lockdown rules
Country’s prime minister has put the nation of 60 million people under special quarantine measures
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...t-socialise-italys-coronavirus-lockdown-rules

https://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/2020/01/22/coronavirus-count-in-beijing
 
basilio said:
The corona virus is out of control in Italy. The government has effectively put the place in quarantine.
To understand the breadth of that decision and then consider the impact on the economy check out the story below.

I came across a very interesting Chinese blog site from Beijing. They have been under a similar regime for around 6 weeks now. 21 million people effectively locked down. The result has been a successful reduction of the corona virus but n fact there have been no more than 400 cases to cases. Italy has over 7000 and multiplying.

If this gets away in Australia we will also have the choice of similar closure of almost all sporting, cultural and social activities or taking a punt of dealing with teh effects of an unstopped nation wide infection with around around a 1-2% fatality rate.

Don't travel, don't socialise, stay inside: Italy's coronavirus lockdown rules
Country’s prime minister has put the nation of 60 million people under special quarantine measures
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...t-socialise-italys-coronavirus-lockdown-rules

https://www.thebeijinger.com/blog/2020/01/22/coronavirus-count-in-beijing
Click to expand...
Bas you should write a book, how to prepare for armageddon, you certainly know how to research.:xyxthumbs
 
Numbers infected with corona virus in Europe

The latest from the European centre for disease prevention and control is that 14,890 cases have been reported in the EU/EEA and the UK: Italy (9,172), France (1,412), Spain (1,204), Germany (1,139), Netherlands (321), United Kingdom (321), Sweden (248), Belgium (239), Norway (192), Austria (131), Denmark (113), Greece (84), Iceland (65), Czech Republic (40), Finland (40), Portugal (39), Ireland (21), Poland (17), Romania (17), Slovenia (16), Croatia (12), Estonia (10), Hungary (9), Latvia (6), Luxembourg (5), Slovakia (5), Bulgaria (4), Malta (4), Cyprus (2), Liechtenstein (1) and Lithuania (1).

As of 10 March, 532 deaths have been reported in the EU/EEA and the UK: Italy (464), France (30), Spain (28), United Kingdom (5), Netherlands (3) and Germany (2).

https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...cases-usa-america-australia-live-news-updates
 
195 countries in the world and 115 of them now have at least one infection.

Current Australian situation:

NT = 1 case (active)
Tas = 2 (both active)
WA = 6 (5 active, 1 death)
SA = 7 (5 active, 2 recovered)
Qld = 18 (10 active, 8 recovered)
Vic = 18 (11 active, 7 recovered)
NSW = 55 (49 active, 4 recovered)

NSW in particular is going up pretty steadily now.

For other countries of significance:
China = 80,757
Italy = 9172
Iran = 8042
South Korea = 7513
Spain = 1646
France = 1412
Germany = 1281
US = 761
Japan = 530
Netherlands = 382
Switzerland = 374
Sweden = 325
UK = 321
Belgium = 267
Norway = 227
Singapore = 160
Austria = 157
Hong Kong = 118
Malaysia = 117
Denmark = 113
Bahrain = 109

New Zealand has 5 cases

Reason I've posted is really just to create a set of data with a time stamp since what's online elsewhere seems to only be current, there doesn't seem to be a means to look back at least not on the sites I'm aware of.

It is not my intention to cause unnecessary alarm etc.:2twocents
 
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