Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

[sptrawler]

2 day lock down isn't really a lock down at all. the virus will just move through. maybe they should have cut off the whole continent. an island during the 1918 flu was spared in this manner.

It would probably already have been here, before China let the cat out of the bag.

 

[qldfrog]

Was listening to the aboriginal radio a few minutes ago and had a thought
Our Aboriginal communities are going to be slaughtered: they have a high percentage of diabetes and bad health: smoke, alcohol drug and bad food habits.
Overall if what we read about risk factors is true, the poorer the more at risk, irrespective of the health facilities in place

 

[satanoperca]

You could say the law of nature is the strong survive and the weak perish. So has it been since the drawn of time.

Simply. Nothing has changed in 10000 years with exception to people cant face reality.

 

[moXJO]

It's all cool apparently it will vanish as quickly as it appeared.

 

[IFocus]

This is American but pretty good

"My job is not to scare you out of your wits, it's to scare you into your wits."

 

[wayneL]

do you personally know the author of that?

Because it kinda sounds like the random emails that circulate round my grandmothers email lists.

Here is the original tweet, judge for yourself.

 

[Value Collector]

Here is the original tweet, judge for yourself.

I don’t know the guy who tweeted it? And the author isn’t named from what I can see.

i have no doubt the situation in Italy is serious, but that account just stinks of a random viral email that gets spread around.

maybe it’s a language thing?

 

[Value Collector]

An interesting point to note, is that although the virus has spread geographically, there is about 10,500 less infected people today than there was about a month ago when the number of active cases peaked at over 58,000.

We are seeing active cases trend up again as it has spread outside of China, but it it probable that the the active cases will peak again as these new countries precautions begin to take effect and we may see active cases down trending again shortly.

 

[moXJO]

I don’t know the guy who tweeted it? And the author isn’t named from what I can see.

i have no doubt the situation in Italy is serious, but that account just stinks of a random viral email that gets spread around.

maybe it’s a language thing?

Article suggests similar:
https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/fortune.com/2020/03/10/coronavirus-italy-cases-hospitals/amp/


https://www.google.com.au/amp/s/m.huffpost.com/us/entry/us_5e68186cc5b60557280d28dd/amp

 

[basilio]

Public profile - Jason Van Schoor | HealthManagement.org
healthmanagement.org › viewProfile › Jason_Van Schoor
Jason Van Schoor. Please log into your account to view faculty contact details. Positions. Clinical Fellow Registrar in Intensive Care Critical Care Unit, University ...

Real doctor. Not a fake.

This is American but pretty good

................................................................................
"My job is not to scare you out of your wits, it's to scare you into your wits."

Check out that story. Very sobering. Very powerful sting in the last 30 secionds as well.

 

[basilio]

I think Victoria is about to make a very big mistake.

Australian Grand Prix: three F1 team members placed in isolation over coronavirus fears

• One McLaren and two Haas team members tested
• Decision to go ahead with race comes under fire
• Coronavirus – latest updates

Three Formula One team members have been placed into isolation amid concerns they may have contracted the coronavirus, as the decision to go ahead with the Australian Grand Prix comes under renewed fire. One member from McLaren and two from the Haas teams were evaluated at the circuit’s isolation unit, established by F1, after showing fever symptoms at the track.

The team members have been tested for the virus and placed under self-isolation at their hotels. There will be significant concern if their tests return positive as they have been mixing in the paddock while carrying the virus, potentially seriously escalating the threat of the coronavirus preventing the grand prix taking place.

https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2...rs-placed-in-isolation-over-coronavirus-fears

 

[Value Collector]

Public profile - Jason Van Schoor | HealthManagement.org
healthmanagement.org › viewProfile › Jason_Van Schoor
Jason Van Schoor. Please log into your account to view faculty contact details. Positions. Clinical Fellow Registrar in Intensive Care Critical Care Unit, University ...

Real doctor. Not a fake.

Jason Van Schoor isn’t the author of that post, he is the guy that cut and pasted it, the original source isn’t named.

As I said I have no doubt the situation is pretty hectic in Italy, just the wording and layout of the document seems so fake, as I said it might just be language differences.

 

[basilio]

Jason Van Schoor isn’t the author of that post, he is the guy that cut and pasted it, the original source isn’t named.

As I said I have no doubt the situation is pretty hectic in Italy, just the wording and layout of the document seems so fake, as I said it might just be language differences.

Your right. It seems as if this is the original source.

'Overwhelmed' Italian hospitals are running at '200 ... - Daily Mail
www.dailymail.co.uk › news › article-8095835 › Overwhelmed-Italia...
1 day ago - The medic's comments were published in a Twitter thread by UK-based friend Jason van ... Mr van Schoor said he was passing on a message from a ... Dr Massimo Galli, head of infectious disease at Milan's Sacco hospital.

Also if you listen to the interview IFocus found there is a very similar commentary about the situation in Milan hospitals.

Dr Galli is reported widely about the Corona Crisis in Italy
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/03/italy-elderly-population-coronavirus-risk-covid-19

 

[bluekelah]

The situation in Italy
*****
Jason Van Schoor
From a well respected friend and intensivist/A&E consultant who is currently in northern Italy:
1/ ‘I feel the pressure to give you a quick personal update about what is happening in Italy, and also give some quick direct advice about what you should do.
2/ First, Lumbardy is the most developed region in Italy and it has a extraordinary good healthcare, I have worked in Italy, UK and Aus and don’t make the mistake to think that what is happening is happening in a 3rd world country.
3/ The current situation is difficult to imagine and numbers do not explain things at all. Our hospitals are overwhelmed by Covid-19, they are running 200% capacity
4/ We’ve stopped all routine, all ORs have been converted to ITUs and they are now diverting or not treating all other emergencies like trauma or strokes. There are hundreds of pts with severe resp failure and many of them do not have access to anything above a reservoir mask.
5/ Patients above 65 or younger with comorbidities are not even assessed by ITU, I am not saying not tubed, I’m saying not assessed and no ITU staff attends when they arrest. Staff are working as much as they can but they are starting to get sick and are emotionally overwhelmed.
6/ My friends call me in tears because they see people dying in front of them and they con only offer some oxygen. Ortho and pathologists are being given a leaflet and sent to see patients on NIV. PLEASE STOP, READ THIS AGAIN AND THINK.
7/ We have seen the same pattern in different areas a week apart, and there is no reason that in a few weeks it won’t be the same everywhere, this is the pattern:
8/ 1)A few positive cases, first mild measures, people are told to avoid ED but still hang out in groups, everyone says not to panick
2)Some moderate resp failures and a few severe ones that need tube, but regular access to ED is significantly reduced so everything looks great
9/ 3)Tons of patients with moderate resp failure, that overtime deteriorate to saturate ICUs first, then NIVs, then CPAP hoods, then even O2.
4)Staff gets sick so it gets difficult to cover for shifts, mortality spikes also from all other causes that can’t be treated properly.
10/ Everything about how to treat them is online but the only things that will make a difference are: do not be afraid of massively strict measures to keep people safe,
11/ if governments won’t do this at least keep your family safe, your loved ones with history of cancer or diabetes or any transplant will not be tubed if they need it even if they are young. By safe I mean YOU do not attend them and YOU decide who does and YOU teach them how to.
12/ Another typical attitude is read and listen to people saying things like this and think “that’s bad dude” and then go out for dinner because you think you’ll be safe.
13/ We have seen it, you won’t be if you don’t take it seriously. I really hope it won’t be as bad as here but prepare
.

[/QUOTE]
Yup sounds like ground zero in Wuhan just a month ago. Still too many people here think "its just a bad flu" we need to move from reactivity to proactivity.

oh yeah and make sure you wear a mask out , especially if you are in Sydney or Melbs, the virus has started gaining a foothold there and chances of catching it in public are now much higher.

 

[Knobby22]

An interesting point to note, is that although the virus has spread geographically, there is about 10,500 less infected people today than there was about a month ago when the number of active cases peaked at over 58,000.

We are seeing active cases trend up again as it has spread outside of China, but it it probable that the the active cases will peak again as these new countries precautions begin to take effect and we may see active cases down trending again shortly.

South Korea took it seriously and has essentially beaten the disease. Italy, not as much but now is doing its best.

Unfortunately the USA let it run for 6 weeks without testing, due to pandemic section of government being effectively shut down 2 years ago and the subsequent inability to conduct extensive testing.

Now they have finally developed a test we will see a massive outbreak has already occurred. Look at all the Aussies coming back from the USA testing positive lately.

Also the way their economy works with part time workers and no sick leave, no way of feeding the family if a worker stops because they are a bit sick and the poor health system, I can't see it being controlled easily.

The USA will be the problem this month.

 

[wayneL]

Jason Van Schoor isn’t the author of that post, he is the guy that cut and pasted it, the original source isn’t named.

As I said I have no doubt the situation is pretty hectic in Italy, just the wording and layout of the document seems so fake, as I said it might just be language differences.

Maybe language, maybe the constraints of Twitter, but the details check out, VC.

It's right to be skeptical about these messages, but if something is fair dinkum, it doesn't serve any purpose trying to diminish it.

FWIW

 

[noirua]

Tiziana plans to administer TZLS-501 using a proprietary formulation technology. Tests have already shown that the treatment rapidly depletes circulating levels of IL-6 in the blood. An excessive production of IL-6 is regarded as a key driver of chronic inflammation and is believed to be associated with severe lung damage observed with COVID-19 infections and acute respiratory illness.

Dr. Kunwar Shailubhai, CEO & CSO of Tiziana Life Sciences said; "We are excited to move forward with our clinical development plan to expedite evaluation in patients as soon as possible."

Tiziana, a biotechnology company focused on innovative therapeutics for inflammatory and autoimmune diseases, is expediting development of TZLS-501, with Novimmune, SA, a Swiss biotechnology company with whom it entered into a world-wide license for composition-of-matter in 2017.

LONDON, March 11, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- Nasdaq and AIM listed Tiziana Life Sciences plc (Nasdaq: TLSA) (AIM: TILS) has today announced that its TZLS-501 treatment could be a potential treatment for patients infected with coronavirus (COVID-19) who are at risk of respiratory failure.
https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/N...ciences-Developing-TZLS-501-as-a-Pot/81963821

 

[Value Collector]

South Korea took it seriously and has essentially beaten the disease. Italy, not as much but now is doing its best.

Unfortunately the USA let it run for 6 weeks without testing, due to pandemic section of government being effectively shut down 2 years ago and the subsequent inability to conduct extensive testing.

Now they have finally developed a test we will see a massive outbreak has already occurred. Look at all the Aussies coming back from the USA testing positive lately.

Also the way their economy works with part time workers and no sick leave, no way of feeding the family if a worker stops because they are a bit sick and the poor health system, I can't see it being controlled easily.

The USA will be the problem this month.

An important sign of good progress is when the daily number of new cases in a country peaks and begins to down trend, shortly after that the daily number of deaths peaks and begins to down trend.

China and South Korea have both passed peak new cases and peak deaths.

Iran daily new cases has peaked.

Italy looks like it may have hit its peak new cases, which is a good sign, but we have to wait and see if the drop in new daily cases becomes a trend.

Usa is still trending up, although total cases is very much lower Than Italy and China.

 

[basilio]

As usual The Guardian is carrying a wide range of stories about the spread and consequences of the corona virus. I'll highlight a few that might sum up the current state of affairs.

1) This virus can be stopped with determination, resources, skill an some brute strength.

Research finds huge impact of interventions on spread of Covid-19
Study suggests number of cases could have been cut by 66% if China had acted a week earlier

The rapid spread of coronavirus around the world could have been substantially curtailed if the broad swath of measures China brought in to control the outbreak were introduced just weeks earlier, researchers say.

Sophisticated modelling of the outbreak suggests that China had 114,325 cases by the end of February 2020, a figure that would have been 67 times higher without interventions such as early detection, isolation of the infected, and travel restrictions.

But if the interventions could have been brought in a week earlier, 66% fewer people would have been infected, the analysis found. The same measures brought in three weeks earlier could have reduced cases by 95%.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...impact-of-interventions-on-spread-of-covid-19

 

[basilio]

2) Some Asian countries are getting on top of the spread using teh tools outlined. Note that Singapore keeps an absolute eagle eye on infected people but also pays them to say isolated.

Mass testing, alerts and big fines: the strategies used in Asia to slow coronavirus

From Singapore to South Korea, countries across Asia have been mobilising for weeks in an attempt to contain the spread of the coronavirus. Some have had successes, combining mass-testing, technology and social distancing to stem the tide of infections. But uncertainty over the virus’s future course means the region is not out of the woods yet.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...e-strategies-used-in-asia-to-slow-coronavirus