Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

[Smurf1976]

So far as there's this debate about the death rate, how many infected and so on I think the big problem is nobody knows for certain.

It's not like, say, the Boeing 737 MAX problem. In that case there's a known number of aircraft and it's known who owns them with the only question being how long they're on the ground.

Or something like, say, if the Saudi's had stopped selling oil completely rather than doing the opposite. In that case it would be a known problem with volume and just a question of how long.

This virus has the difficulty that the volume is unknown and so is the duration. That's the difficult bit - both key aspects are unknowns. The markets would cope far better if either the volume of impact or its duration were known but since neither are that's a real problem.

 

[Humid]

experts put the eventual disease prevalence anywhere from 30% to 70%. It might even be 100% eventually given this is a novel virus non of us have immunity to unlike flu viruses where we might have had it in previous seasons or had flu shots.

As i said, lets give this virus a few months to run through our population of 25million and see whether we get 10million cases eventually.

The only reason COvid19 hasnt even reached one million cases is because of effective draconian lockdown efforts in china. THey have 1.25billion people, and if it got out of control it wouldnt just be millions of cases but tens of millions of cases.

Experts would of told me to dump my shares two weeks ago and buy dunny roll

Who do you believe?
The distrust of government doesn’t help
Strange days indeed

 

[bluekelah]

Experts would of told me to dump my shares two weeks ago and buy dunny roll

Who do you believe?
The distrust of government doesn’t help
Strange days indeed

That would make me an expert, i was already stocking up supplies a month ago and moving my portfolio into gold and cash position of 70% to 30%stocks

 

[Smurf1976]

Experts would of told me to dump my shares two weeks ago and buy dunny roll

It perhaps summarises the situation rather well by saying that if any bona fide financial advisor had said exactly that then they'd likely have been removed from their duties without delay, the only question in the boss' mind being whether to sack them or call a psychiatrist.

The idea would have seemed so ludicrous as to be completely unbelievable and yet it would have been precisely correct.

There's a lesson in that somewhere.

 

[DB008]

Tuesday 10th March

Total infected - 113,575
Total Deaths - 3,995
Total recovered - 62, 949

Highest infections outside of China - Italy with 9,172

Australia is 131 infected with 3 deaths

 

[DB008]

John Travolta was hospitalized for suspected COVID-19, but doctors now confirm that it was only Saturday Night Fever, and they assure everyone that he is Staying Alive.

 

[wayneL]

It perhaps summarises the situation rather well by saying that if any bona fide financial advisor had said exactly that then they'd likely have been removed from their duties without delay, the only question in the boss' mind being whether to sack them or call a psychiatrist.

The idea would have seemed so ludicrous as to be completely unbelievable and yet it would have been precisely correct.

There's a lesson in that somewhere.

Yes indeed, that's why people get crap advice and why mutual funds underperform. What you have in the mainstream financial community is hive mind where nobody step out if the orthodoxy.

 

[Humid]

That would make me an expert, i was already stocking up supplies a month ago and moving my portfolio into gold and cash position of 70% to 30%stocks

Can you let me know when to buy then?

 

[basilio]

A constructive view of dealing with the Corona virus in China.

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I've spent one month in lockdown in China because of coronavirus. This is what I've learnt
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-10/spending-a-month-in-lockdown-in-beijing-coronavirus/12032942

 

[basilio]

Nice one. Interesting to see if any other execs follow suit - even partially.

To help cut costs, Qantas’s chief executive Alan Joyce – Australia’s highest paid executive who took home nearly AUD$24m (about £12m) in 2018 – will take no salary this financial year.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/l...te-latest-news#block-5e66c5a38f085f0b8d94542f

 

[MrChow]

XAO just opened -200 points down @ 5601.

-23.1% fall from peak.

Looks like heading into the green now though.

Only a recession would justify taking this further to -30% so think there's not alot of downside until worst case scenario actually happens.

EG. GFC wasn't -30% until Lehman collapsed and Dot Com wasn't -30% until 9/11.

(Caveat: I really hope Trump didn't do a presser with Coronavirus)

 

[wayneL]

XAO just opened -200 points down @ 5601.

-23.1% fall from peak.

Looks like heading into the green now though.

Only a recession would justify taking this further to -30% so think there's not alot of downside until worst case scenario actually happens.

EG. GFC wasn't -30% until Lehman collapsed and Dot Com wasn't -30% until 9/11.

(Caveat: I really hope Trump didn't do a presser with Coronavirus)

The buy dips, bargain hunter crowd.

Are stocks a bargain now?

I posit they have just gone from ludicrously expensive to extremely expensive.

Of course the big question is, will stocks go to fantastically expensive beyond belief, or back to some sort of value?

I packed away my crystal ball somewhere and I can't find the damn thing, so I have no idea.

 

[qldfrog]

indeed and the less profit the higher the PE....

 

[wayneL]

indeed and the less profit the higher the PE....

^^^^indeed!

How the feck do we even calculate value at this point?

 

[bluekelah]

Can you let me know when to buy then?

i will let you know right now. U can buy in when the Aords index is down 30% that would signal a true crash which you can then slowly put in 10% of your cash position. U can never pick the bottom, the best is to buy when stocks are dirt cheap and no one else is buying. good to monitor daily trade volumes too, it will go quiet once every one has done selling, shorts are done covering and no one is interested in stocks any more, either too afraid to invest or out chasing other assets like property or gold.

 

[bluekelah]

^^^^indeed!

How the feck do we even calculate value at this point?

net asset value per share. and then apply a discount for non cash items.

if looking at the market as a whole, u can use market cap of stocks / GDP ratio. This is one indicator Warren buffet uses as a macro gauge. If this is a real crisis type crash, stocks will start looking cheap when that ratio goes below 100%

https://www.gurufocus.com/global-market-valuation.php?country=AUS

 

[IFocus]

Something I have been meaning to write about and that's the federal government's stimulus package or their response.
So for SP feelings I mention it here

Arguments aside whether stimulus is the way to go or not.

Given its a market mover worthy of a discussion.

Listening to the language i hear a lot of political dog whistling about controlling the money, targeted, not over spending or wasting money etc this is all political which is concerning its not aggressive posture.

Lets not talk about the wasted billions pork barrelling marginal seats or the $2bill for bush fires that doesn't exist then there is the problems getting loans to business affect by bush fires.
This is corrupt behavior or terrible deployment or lack of ability to enact policy remember this is a policy free government they have enacted very little.

I get the feeling Morrison thinks he is 1/2 smart in regards to stimulus my gut feel is they will under spend sacrifice much of the work force and low income households and screw it up........i genuinely hope I am wrong.

 

[IFocus]

Further to the above a reminder of Ken Henrys simulus was house holds to support retail who at the time were the biggest employers.

Much has been said after how mining saved the day, a reminder mining shed 13% to 19% plus of its workforce luckily it wasn't a major employer at the time.

Mining came to the fore long after the storm past and was a major contributor in the recovery.

 

[sptrawler]

I get the feeling Morrison thinks he is 1/2 smart in regards to stimulus my gut feel is they will under spend sacrifice much of the work force and low income households and screw it up........i genuinely hope I am wrong.

Good to see you having one each way.
I hope the stimulus works, I'm sure most others do also and I will be the first to criticise the Government if it is crap.

 

[sptrawler]

Further to the above a reminder of Ken Henrys simulus was house holds to support retail who at the time were the biggest employers.

Much has been said after how mining saved the day, a reminder mining shed 13% to 19% plus of its workforce luckily it wasn't a major employer at the time.

Mining came to the fore long after the storm past and was a major contributor in the recovery.

Fortunately most of Australia don't wear glasses. Anyway history is history, it was what is was and it will be remembered fondly by some not so by others.
We will see if the same applies to this round of batts, halls and plasma's.