Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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Value Collector said:
I expect in each country that gets the virus, the number of cases will steadily rise for two - three weeks, after the initial case is discovered, then the number of total cases will begin to drop as the original ones recover or die, and the infection rate drops due to additional precautions are taken.
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Not quite what I meant VC. I was posing the question as to the accuracy of initial estimates of infected people. If for example the government announces they have found 3 infections but in fact they have missed 300 other people with the virus than the genie is out of the bottle.

On the other hand if the first statement is very close to the mark then there may still be a chance of closing down widespread circulation of the virus.
 
If you took the numbers from China and Korea and explained them it would sound exactly like ValueCollector's summary.

XAO hit -19.2% today and think it's not a bad level don't see much downside until there's follow through in real life.
 
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basilio said:
Not quite what I meant VC. I was posing the question as to the accuracy of initial estimates of infected people. If for example the government announces they have found 3 infections but in fact they have missed 300 other people with the virus than the genie is out of the bottle.

On the other hand if the first statement is very close to the mark then there may still be a chance of closing down widespread circulation of the virus.
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I would expect if they have found 3 people with the virus, then their is multiple others carrying it in the incubation stage, that’s just a given.

hence why I said after the initial positive diagnosis the number should continue to rise for 2 weeks or so.

Eg, even if the whole country was immediately put on lockdown, and the infection rate was brought to zero, you should still expect to the total number of daily positive cases to keep growing for a while, before it plateaus, and then collapses.
 
Value Collector said:
I would expect if they have found 3 people with the virus, then their is multiple others carrying it in the incubation stage, that’s just a given.

hence why I said after the initial positive diagnosis the number should continue to rise for 2 weeks or so.

Eg, even if the whole country was immediately put on lockdown, and the infection rate was brought to zero, you should still expect to the total number of daily positive cases to keep growing for a while, before it plateaus, and then collapses.
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Fair enough. I suppose the question is still how many people are at various stages of infection.
Also worth recognising that many people will only have a mild dose and not turn up as affected.- but they could still be passing on stronger infections to others.
All a challenge.
 
basilio said:
Also worth recognising that many people will only have a mild dose and not turn up as affected.- but they could still be passing on stronger infections to others.
.
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Yes, for sure there is people That go unreported, but if you think about it that means the virus is actually less dangerous than The numbers suggest.

Eg. If it only exists in the reported cases then it death rate looks high at 5% or so.

but if 50% of the cases go unreported and the host recovers without treatment, then the death rate drops to 2.5%.

mean while heart disease is still killing an Australian every 12 minutes, and we are all still smashing saturated fats and cholesterol into our veins without a second thought.

Corona Virus is bad, but it’s nothing to panic about, just take standard precautions and soldier on everything is going to be fine.
 
I'm predicting the next 3 months will have positive returns.

So June XAO higher than 5822.

Based on Coronavirus peaking and subsiding without too much damage, positive outlook for Q3 GDP to bounce back and avoid a Recession and no systematic shocks to the Financial System from spillage of current risk factors.
 
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Knobby22 said:
I'm predicting the opposite. Another big drop to come in a couple of weeks.
A worldwide banking crisis with some European banks going broke, many US banks going broke and Westpac and NAB in trouble on top of massive unemployment.
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That is a big call Knobby.
 
Value Collector said:
Yes, for sure there is people That go unreported, but if you think about it that means the virus is actually less dangerous than The numbers suggest.

Eg. If it only exists in the reported cases then it death rate looks high at 5% or so.

but if 50% of the cases go unreported and the host recovers without treatment, then the death rate drops to 2.5%.

mean while heart disease is still killing an Australian every 12 minutes, and we are all still smashing saturated fats and cholesterol into our veins without a second thought.

Corona Virus is bad, but it’s nothing to panic about, just take standard precautions and soldier on everything is going to be fine.
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2.5% is still pretty high mate. We have roughly 25million+pop. lets say 10million get it. thats 250,000 deaths we are looking at vs a cuppla hundred from seasonal flu every year. And if you compare to heart disease, 12 per minute means 43,800 deaths a year from heart disease. Which means COVID 19 could be killing someone every cuppla minuutes in the coming year assuming only 10 million get infected. If it goes through 100% of population that would be one death per minute.


You gotta be drinking the koolaid if you think thats nothing to panic about...
 
MrChow said:
I'm predicting the next 3 months will have positive returns.

So June XAO higher than 5822.

Based on Coronavirus peaking and subsiding without too much damage, positive outlook for Q3 GDP to bounce back and avoid a Recession and no systematic shocks to the Financial System from spillage of current risk factors.
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If you knew more about this virus, you would then know that its not going away anytime soon.

Countries are looking at either economic mayhem with lock downs, or health system mayhem without lock downs. And once you lower your guard like whats happening in China restarting factories etc, the virus will just have a resurgence and you are back to lockdown quarantine again. Just wait for it and see how it spreads in Guangdong province china where big manufacturers are like the foxconn factory making iphones.
 
bluekelah said:
2.5% is still pretty high mate. We have roughly 25million+pop. lets say 10million get it. thats 250,000 deaths we are looking at vs a cuppla hundred from seasonal flu every year. You gotta be drinking the koolaid if you think thats nothing to panic about...
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10,000,000???? total global infections only are a little over 100k at the moment, that’s 1% of that number, if you think Australia is going to hit 10,000,000 infections you’re crazy.

but either way, my point was simply that 2.5% is better than 5%, maybe reread my post.

Any way in the mean time 43,000 Australians will die of heart disease this year, dwarfing anything likely to come from corona virus, but that’s just business as usual, I guess nothing to see here, even though one of the reasons people are dying of corona virus is because of pre existing conditions such heart disease.
 
MrChow said:
I'm predicting the next 3 months will have positive returns.

So June XAO higher than 5822.

Based on Coronavirus peaking and subsiding without too much damage, positive outlook for Q3 GDP to bounce back and avoid a Recession and no systematic shocks to the Financial System from spillage of current risk factors.
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I think you are right.
 
Knobby22 said:
I thought Mr Chows call was big.
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His was fairly general, yours was quite specific, which IMO is more courageous.
I tend to lean toward Mr Chows prognosis though.
The difference I think will eventuate is, the virus will resurface a few times untill immunity in the population increases, it may be an annual event for a while untill a vacine is found.
 
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Well there is always a positive from a negative, reduced global population should reduce global warming in the short term.

You cannot stop nature from fighting back and humans are the virus of planet earth.
 
Value Collector said:
10,000,000???? total global infections only are a little over 100k at the moment, that’s 1% of that number, if you think Australia is going to hit 10,000,000 infections you’re crazy.

but either way, my point was simply that 2.5% is better than 5%, maybe reread my post.

Any way in the mean time 43,000 Australians will die of heart disease this year, dwarfing anything likely to come from corona virus, but that’s just business as usual, I guess nothing to see here, even though one of the reasons people are dying of corona virus is because of pre existing conditions such heart disease.
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experts put the eventual disease prevalence anywhere from 30% to 70%. It might even be 100% eventually given this is a novel virus non of us have immunity to unlike flu viruses where we might have had it in previous seasons or had flu shots.

As i said, lets give this virus a few months to run through our population of 25million and see whether we get 10million cases eventually.

The only reason COvid19 hasnt even reached one million cases is because of effective draconian lockdown efforts in china. THey have 1.25billion people, and if it got out of control it wouldnt just be millions of cases but tens of millions of cases.
 
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