Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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The world is laughing at us and we deserve it. We must look like the greatest bunch of hysterical idiots, completely devoid of reason and fighting over toilet paper.

What has happened to this country?
 
As with the Italian situation, small towns where the demographics are skewed to older people, the younger ones having left for the bigger towns/ cities, I fear for some of the sea/ tree change communities. And this is exacerbated by the relative paucity of health services, what with many being specialist-free and hospitals on a general ward level only.
 
greggles said:
The world is laughing at us and we deserve it. We must look like the greatest bunch of hysterical idiots, completely devoid of reason and fighting over toilet paper.

What has happened to this country?
Click to expand...
Do not worry human nature only, at its worst
same happenning in the uk, wait till the tally increase for behaviour in Europe or US.
I suspect the TP issue started due to our strong chinese presence, they have families telling them of real situation in China..and want to make dure foes not happen to them , or reap $ as some did there
 
greggles said:
The world is laughing at us and we deserve it. We must look like the greatest bunch of hysterical idiots, completely devoid of reason and fighting over toilet paper.

What has happened to this country?
Click to expand...

Yep look at the government voted in.....sorry couldn't resist.

Interestly it wasn't the government that instigated the corona response but Australia's chef medical officer who has some power to trigger the actions required.

I wonder if the containment works and we sail through this OK coming out the other side the story will be how unnecessary the aggressive containment was?
 
IFocus said:
Those numbers have been out there for some time and its been taken very seriously by Australia's medical fraternity, the death rate isn't the only problem but as I aid before pick any number you like its still a very serious problem well beyond previous flu epidemics.

Worth reading up on the Italian outbreak


https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...a723a2-5c9e-11ea-ac50-18701e14e06d_story.html
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Very good article indeed
And i quote
The 38-year-old Italian who was the first to test positive in the Lombardy region, and who remains in intensive care, had not traveled abroad, and doctors initially sent him home from the hospital.
So at 38 he is not dead but still in icu 2 weeks later..
I do not know how long it will take for some people to get it
No it is not just another flu
And the options ahead are from
very bad to catastrophic
Anyway, let's have a bit of Darwin selection for once.
 
qldfrog said:
And the options ahead are from
very bad to catastrophic
Click to expand...

So now I know who has been buying all the TP.

Can you please provide some statistical representation of very bad to catastropic and stop being an alarmist.

I will give you a hand :
Catastrophic : 100 % infection rate 5% mortality rate across all age demographics
Very Bad : 100% infection rate, 5% mortality rate for those 50-60, 10% for those above 60 years of age.

Why do humans believe they can control nature?
 
greggles said:
The world is laughing at us and we deserve it. We must look like the greatest bunch of hysterical idiots, completely devoid of reason and fighting over toilet paper.

What has happened to this country?
Click to expand...

Disgusting.

Morons reselling Quilton paper on Ebay at inflated prices !!!!

Are there laws governing this sort of behaviour, took screenshots to report but I suspect it's a lost cause.
 
moXJO said:
The problem is they need to force oxygen down your lungs. Only so many beds and spots. You may also need to be knocked out to breathe properly. People will die if the numbers get too high because care will be unavailable.
We can't even stock toilet paper rfs.

I'm still unsure of how bad the illness is because it's hard to find info on exactly what is going on.
I think satanop numbers are correct at this point. That can all change if mismanaged of course. But numbers should be a lot worse in China, Iran, Italy if this thing were as bad as the scare campaign.

Time will tell though.
Click to expand...

I find your first line very interesting, my wife is a chronic asthmatic, to the extent that we carry a nebuliser with us all the time.

I wonder have they tried a nebuliser on those who are sick ..................
 
macca said:
I find your first line very interesting, my wife is a chronic asthmatic, to the extent that we carry a nebuliser with us all the time.

I wonder have they tried a nebuliser on those who are sick ..................
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Here's a better description then anything I could type.


Excellent channel.
 
satanoperca said:
I will give you a hand :
Catastrophic : 100 % infection rate 5% mortality rate across all age demographics
Very Bad : 100% infection rate, 5% mortality rate for those 50-60, 10% for those above 60 years of age.
Click to expand...
Governments and most large organisations already have established procedures for classifying risk and actual occurrences.

Using the ones I'm familiar with, the impact of this virus already meets the definition of "Critical" in terms of what has already occurred. The only level above "Critical" is "Catastrophic".

All governments have something like that already drawn up and so do many large businesses. If someone's dead then it's immediately in the highest or second highest category that's a given. :2twocents
 
Thanks Smurf, :)

I am aware the govnuts and large companies have such procedures and plans in place for possible events that we are currently in.

My question is, does anyone know what the govnuts are both state and federally. If they allow the media to run with this, the situation economically is going to be a whole lot worse than potentially the virus itself.

Maybe the reason for people panicking, is that cannot see it, so are fearful, similar to how the church(s) worked with god, who cannot be seen and bought fee among he masses centuries ago.
 
basilio said:
Situation in Melbourne could get serious. Interestingly Toorak is largely populated with older very wealthy people.

Melbourne GP clinic closed after doctor tests positive for coronavirus
Updated 27 minutes ago

12036140-3x2-340x227.jpg
Photo: The Toorak Clinic has been temporarily closed in the wake of the GP testing positive. (Google Maps)
A doctor who recently returned from the US and since treated dozens of patients has become Victoria's 11th confirmed coronavirus case, health authorities have said.

State Health Minister Jenny Mikakos said the GP was confirmed to have the virus last night, six days after returning from overseas, and was now recovering at home.

The doctor, from the Toorak Clinic in Malvern Road, consulted about 70 patients between March 2 and yesterday, Ms Mikakos said.

He also treated two patients at a nursing home in Malvern during that time.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-07/coronavirus-infects-melbourne-doctor/12023438
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It's tough isn't it ? The doctor at the centre of this issue believes he is owed an apology for being trashed by the Health Minister.

I can readily see his point. This a rapidly changing landscape. I think this was the first instance of a person coming from the US spreading the virus. And a week ago the US was just hearing about the first US person to person infection. Why would one come back from the US with a sniffle and think I have picked up the virus?

4:17 PM / February 27, 2020
California officials trying to trace new coronavirus patient's contacts


California officials revealed only minimal details Thursday about what is believed to be the first case of community transmission of coronavirus in the U.S., meaning the patient was probably infected by someone in the general population. "We know that there were a number of days that she was in her community and that she then did begin accessing care," state Health and Human Services Secretary Dr. Mark Ghaly told reporters.

The female patient is in isolation at UC Davis Medical Center in Sacramento, and health officials are trying to trace her contacts. "Step by step, we look at where they've been and who they might have been in direct communication with," said Dr. Sonia Angell, the state's public health officer.

This is the 15th case to originate in the U.S. The other 14 cases involved either people who traveled to China or who had close contact with an infected patient.
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-update...ll-infections-latest-news-updates-2020-02-27/

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...higgins-hits-back-at-health-minister/12036910
 
This makes me angry: https://www.themercury.com.au/news/...o/news-story/19cb24117687f745c8bd3058058fa8bb

It's a total disregard for the health of a large number of other people to be told to self-isolate and then not simply go out in public but to work in a restaurant that's part of a large hotel and to go out partying is just ridiculous.

There is however a good list of the symptoms associated with this disease further down the article with fever and dry cough the most common but plenty of others. :2twocents
 
Comparing now to 25th of February, just 12 days ago:

Italy = 230 infections then (now 5883)
Iran = 61 (now 6566)
Germany = 16 (now 939)
France = 12 (now 949)
Spain = 2 (now 589)

I'll now point out that Australia's present total of 70 is more than Iran had less than two weeks ago.

If we simply replicated France or Germany, both of which are developed countries with plenty of hospitals and money etc, then two weeks from now we'll be circa 5000 and at that point we've got zero chance of coping. :2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
Comparing now to 25th of February, just 12 days ago:

Italy = 230 infections then (now 5883)
Iran = 61 (now 6566)
Germany = 16 (now 939)
France = 12 (now 949)
Spain = 2 (now 589)

I'll now point out that Australia's present total of 70 is more than Iran had less than two weeks ago.

If we simply replicated France or Germany, both of which are developed countries with plenty of hospitals and money etc, then two weeks from now we'll be circa 5000 and at that point we've got zero chance of coping. :2twocents
Click to expand...


Maybe... perhaps not ? I suppose the critical question is how widespread were the infections in the community before the first ones were actually identified ? If for example there are actually 300 people infected but only a couple properly identified then we are all toast. (Or if the initial figures are dodgy) It is then on the march. If the virus has been contained to those who have been identified as bringing it in and we have kept a close eye on their family and contacts maybe... we won't go in the current direction.

I will be very interested to see the outcome of the Dr Higgins doctor situation. He saw 70 people in close contact plus patients in a nursing home.

But I wouldn't want to bet against the trend.:(
 
This is disturbing. :( Apparently someone else on the flight that Dr Chris Higgins took from the US has come down with the virus.

Implications.
1) He was infected by Dr Higgins
2) Or he infected Dr Higgins
3) And/or other people on the plane could also be infected or indeed the carrier.

Also suggests further infections are likely from Dr Higgins attention to clients. Not good news at all.

Victoria's official coronavirus COVID-19 tally rises to 15 after three new cases confirmed

Health Minister Jenny Mikakos said one of the latest cases was a man in his 50s, who was on the same flight from the US as Toorak GP Chris Higgins, who was diagnosed with the virus on Friday.
She said it was not clear whether the man had contracted the virus on the plane or afterwards.
He developed mild symptoms the day after the flight landed on February 29 and is recovering at home in self-isolation.
Before his diagnosis, the man visited Wine by Sam in Seymour on March 3, between 12:30pm and 3:30pm.
On March 5, he attended a private film screening at Cinema Nova in Carlton from 7:30pm to 10:30pm.

https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03-09/victoria-records-new-coronavirus-covid-19-cases/12038048
 
basilio said:
Maybe... perhaps not ? I suppose the critical question is how widespread were the infections in the community before the first ones were actually identified ? If for example there are actually 300 people infected but only a couple properly identified then we are all toast. (Or if the initial figures are dodgy) It is then on the march. If the virus has been contained to those who have been identified as bringing it in and we have kept a close eye on their family and contacts maybe... we won't go in the current direction.

I will be very interested to see the outcome of the Dr Higgins doctor situation. He saw 70 people in close contact plus patients in a nursing home.

But I wouldn't want to bet against the trend.:(
Click to expand...

I expect in each country that gets the virus, the number of cases will steadily rise for two - three weeks, after the initial case is discovered, then the number of total cases will begin to drop as the original ones recover or die, and the infection rate drops due to additional precautions are taken.
 
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