Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
Jump to new
satanoperca said:
the Swedish model is interesting, only time will tell whether it was the most appropriate approach
Click to expand...
Indeed.

There's no certainty in any of this and that itself is a point that everyone involved in making decisions is hopefully bearing in mind. Regardless of what they do, there's no 100% certainty that it's going to be right, it's not as though we're building a bridge or organising to move a million tonnes of freight and can just calculate everything with precision. This is far less certain than that. :2twocents
 
sptrawler said:
Well most are not as in your face as Andrews, he started with a bang and it hasn't seemed to have fizzled.:D
Maybe it is just a Victorian thing, Jeff Kennett was of a similar mould, from memory.
Click to expand...

Jeff Kennett was an ex army officer used to giving orders and having them obeyed, which is why he was such an arrogant c***.

He redeemed himself a bit by founding BeyondBlue and was one of the first I can remember to bring the subject of mental illness into the public view.
 
SirRumpole said:
Jeff Kennett was an ex army officer used to giving orders and having them obeyed, which is why he was such an arrogant c***.

He redeemed himself a bit by founding BeyondBlue and was one of the first I can remember to bring the subject of mental illness into the public view.
Click to expand...

You are harsh, what have you done to provide a better society except for attach peoples integrity.

Oh, sorry, missed that fact that someone who calls himself SIR, resolved world poverty

PS. He was an arrogant c..nt because he had to deal with people like you.
 
Interesting to note that Sweden moved down the list of deaths to % pop to number 22. Singapore which was fine but got reinfected is back at 17.
 
spooly74 said:
Click to expand...
The WHO merely confirms that lockdowns are "blunt tool."
Australia has failed in many areas:
  • poor strategy for handling international arrivals and those crossing borders
    • POCT could have been used as a first level of assessment at all borders for everyone, without exception
    • full address and contact details should have been collected from all border crossers
  • all positive cases should have been removed to isolation centres until virus traces disappeared (Wuhan model)
  • aged care facilities should have been subjected to mandatory audits to ensure every worker was trained to a high level in COVID-safe practices, that all necessary PPE was available and being used, and that facilities were actually following strict safety and compliance regimes, rather than simply having "paper plans"
    • daily POCT testing of staff should have been occurring
  • mandatory wearing of masks in public should have been enacted long ago and certainly before numbers got out of control (not afterwards), and there should be no exceptions
Australians have, unfortunately, shown a level of selfish disregard that precludes us from adopting the Swedish model.
On the economic front, we have not thought through business/activities that are low risk and have continued with broad brush closures as lockdowns became progressively more severe. For example, I have never worked out how 2 people playing a round of golf without a golf cart could pose a risk of spread.
 
In W.A fortunately we are just about back to 'normal' as far as local business goes, no O/S or interstate travel happening, but pubs and local social activity is back to normal.
The great thing is, people are still observing social distancing protocols and being very sensible, it has actually become the norm and I think will become natural behaviour here. Time will tell.
 
rederob said:
The WHO merely confirms that lockdowns are "blunt tool."
Australia has failed in many areas:
  • poor strategy for handling international arrivals and those crossing borders
    • POCT could have been used as a first level of assessment at all borders for everyone, without exception
    • full address and contact details should have been collected from all border crossers
  • all positive cases should have been removed to isolation centres until virus traces disappeared (Wuhan model)
  • aged care facilities should have been subjected to mandatory audits to ensure every worker was trained to a high level in COVID-safe practices, that all necessary PPE was available and being used, and that facilities were actually following strict safety and compliance regimes, rather than simply having "paper plans"
    • daily POCT testing of staff should have been occurring
  • mandatory wearing of masks in public should have been enacted long ago and certainly before numbers got out of control (not afterwards), and there should be no exceptions
Australians have, unfortunately, shown a level of selfish disregard that precludes us from adopting the Swedish model.
On the economic front, we have not thought through business/activities that are low risk and have continued with broad brush closures as lockdowns became progressively more severe. For example, I have never worked out how 2 people playing a round of golf without a golf cart could pose a risk of spread.
Click to expand...
Singapore has failed as well.
 
Thailand is doing a fantastic job after being one of the first outside China to get it.
 
moXJO said:
They have had a second wave

They are back at number 17 for deaths per % of pop. That's a failure to contain....
Click to expand...
Please check your data.
They had a mild second wave and rank in the bottom quartile of the 195 countries in the world, with half as many deaths per capita than Australia.
 
rederob said:
Please check your data.
They had a mild second wave and rank in the bottom quartile of the 195 countries in the world, with half as many deaths per capita than Australia.
Click to expand...
You are correct, hit the wrong tally. And the list looks completely different.

Scratch what I said about Sweden and Singapore.
 
Smurf1976 said:
It is arguably unproven that they've achieved it but WA, NT, SA, Tas and NZ are all in the situation of seemingly having eliminated it within the local population. To the extent they've got any ongoing issues, it's with people who've arrived from somewhere else notably Vic. Hence they've all now become extremely tight in terms of letting anyone in.

Whilst those places all have lower populations and population density than Victoria does, Perth with it's population of 2 million, Auckland with 1.65 million and Adelaide with 1.3 million in their urban areas aren't exactly small country towns. They're all proper cities, they've all got reasonably large buildings, they've all got public transport and so on.

Perth, Adelaide, Auckland, NT, Tasmania, regional WA, SA and NZ. There's a fair diversity there of population density and climate. If they've managed to actually do it then I'm not at all convinced that it isn't possible to do it in Victoria.

If it turns out that they haven't done it, if new cases crop up in Perth or Hobart or wherever, well then that idea might be a dud but at the moment it seems at least possible that elimination may have been achieved in these places. If nobody's turning up with symptoms, if tests aren't finding any cases, then possibly it has actually died out.

From a governance perspective, I don't know what they've all done but in SA it has largely been left to the experts, politicians taking a few steps back. The Chief Public Health Officer and the Police Commissioner have both gained a celebrity-like status to some extent amidst it all, they've been routinely on the news and so on and both have been clear and to the point in layman's terms.

Tasmania went the other way and formed a loose Liberal-Labor-Greens coalition of sorts (the Liberals are in government in Tas) and suspended normal politics for the specific purpose of dealing with the pandemic. In doing so that removed political considerations from the equation and enabled the focus to be on stamping it out. :2twocents
Click to expand...

Interesting Smurf, nice analyses . It can happen I guess. Did in 1918 - an island was saved. I'm guessing it won't work out . Might not be too long before we take a different course or action.
 
Top