Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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Dona Ferentes said:
Fund managers have to say that. Douglass at Magellan, and many others are coming out with risk unaware crap. If they sell, then buying back is a nightmare, because they have to Time The Market twice. And they can't do it even once. Different story dropping a few thousand and offloading multiple millions.
If the virus gets hold, 2% death rate is half a million in this country. With only 4000 ICU beds in the country, a lot of people are going to be without grandparents.
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Cheers Dona. I hope desperately for sub 2% mortality in Aus, and I believe our hospitals and health workers are well up to it. But if along the way, it makes a few fund managers squirm, that's alright by me.

Anyway a chance the market goes up tomorrow Tues. An AUD rate cut would help, and it's possible
 
Logique said:
Indeed Satanoperca, I think that's a fair guesstimate. As you imply, the mortality rate in the First World has been much less than in the Third World, i.e. comparison of China & Iran Vs Australia & US/UK.

Influenza can carry away 78 year olds too - with great respect to that Aussie gent and his family this month.
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China third world? Just hope you will have as efficient a system as China with what? 400 icu beds per capital city in Australia and quite a few seniors?
Do not be number 401 :-(
 
qldfrog said:
China third world? Just hope you will have as efficient a system as China with what? 400 icu beds per capital city in Australia and quite a few seniors?
Do not be number 401 :-(
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Fair point on the national economy Qldrog - but their mass health system and open reporting, not so sure
 
Logique said:
mass health system
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not bad at all and not that inefficient..rough but dual medecine in place plus a lot of mass health systems.readu for number more than us, no top room tv privacy etc but i would not compare them and us as low and high standard
Agree about transparency: 0
 
Some perspective.
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-death/deaths-in-australia/contents/age-at-death
In 2017, there were 160,909 deaths registered in Australia. The majority of deaths in Australia, like other developed countries, occur among older people. Sixty-six per cent of deaths registered in Australia in 2017 were among people aged 75 or over (60% for males and 73% for females).

So doing some quick maths (160k*0.66)/365= 289 Australians age 75 > die each day in Australia.

Seems like the virus has some catching up to do against other causes of death for the elderly.
 
satanoperca said:
Some perspective.
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-death/deaths-in-australia/contents/age-at-death
In 2017, there were 160,909 deaths registered in Australia. The majority of deaths in Australia, like other developed countries, occur among older people. Sixty-six per cent of deaths registered in Australia in 2017 were among people aged 75 or over (60% for males and 73% for females).

So doing some quick maths (160k*0.66)/365= 289 Australians age 75 > die each day in Australia.

Seems like the virus has some catching up to do against other causes of death for the elderly.
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do not worry it is coming probably not for you as you have a pretty good opinion on what needs to happen to females over 75...men are often already dead by then
 
satanoperca said:
Some perspective.
https://www.aihw.gov.au/reports/life-expectancy-death/deaths-in-australia/contents/age-at-death
In 2017, there were 160,909 deaths registered in Australia. The majority of deaths in Australia, like other developed countries, occur among older people. Sixty-six per cent of deaths registered in Australia in 2017 were among people aged 75 or over (60% for males and 73% for females).

So doing some quick maths (160k*0.66)/365= 289 Australians age 75 > die each day in Australia.

Seems like the virus has some catching up to do against other causes of death for the elderly.
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I am sure that if one had the statistics on the Spanish Flu from just a few months after it originated, we would see comparatively low figures too. I don't think you can compare a virus that is in the initial phases of spreading with rates from other established causes.

I heard on some news channel yesterday day that COVID-19 infections are increasing by 20% per day outside China. That means the rate of infections are almost doubling every 3 days and if continued unabated, they would increase by one thousandfold per month. Further extrapolating, that is a millionfold increase in under a year.

I am not saying that COVID-19 will continue at that rate. But certainly there is no room for complacency by just looking at current mortality rates.
 
bellenuit said:
I am sure that if one had the statistics on the Spanish Flu from just a few months after it originated, we would see comparatively low figures too. I don't think you can compare a virus that is in the initial phases of spreading with rates from other established causes.

I heard on some news channel yesterday day that COVID-19 infections are increasing by 20% per day outside China. That means the rate of infections are almost doubling every 3 days and if continued unabated, they would increase by one thousandfold per month. Further extrapolating, that is a millionfold increase in under a year.

I am not saying that COVID-19 will continue at that rate. But certainly there is no room for complacency by just looking at current mortality rates.
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Yes you can, if total deaths per day in Australia are 440 approx, then until we see at least 20 deaths a day from this virus alone, there is nothing to be concerned about = 7300 pa from COVID-19, or a 5% increase in the current natural mortality rate.

I will say, this is being totally overblown, if the scientist came out and said this virus was engineered, then I would start to get concerned.
 
satanoperca said:
Yes you can, if total deaths per day in Australia are 440 approx, then until we see at least 20 deaths a day from this virus alone, there is nothing to be concerned about = 7300 pa from COVID-19, or a 5% increase in the current natural mortality rate.

I will say, this is being totally overblown, if the scientist came out and said this virus was engineered, then I would start to get concerned.
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Last point just inform yourself about wuhan and its level 4 lab, then look at the sars plus hiv sequences present in the new virus.
Or the fact you can get reinfected...
And the consequences of that last point.but true if you are 20 or 30 and hate your family, no need to worry
 
bellenuit said:
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I am not an anti Trump for everything but this is completely nuts, a bit like the indonesian government saying it was protected by God....
Actually if the virus is really sensitive to heat, Indonesia warm and not AC environment could be saved......
then you remember Singapore figures...not exactly Greenland climate ;-)
 
satanoperca said:
Yes you can, if total deaths per day in Australia are 440 approx, then until we see at least 20 deaths a day from this virus alone, there is nothing to be concerned about = 7300 pa from COVID-19, or a 5% increase in the current natural mortality rate.

I will say, this is being totally overblown, if the scientist came out and said this virus was engineered, then I would start to get concerned.
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Since mid Jan, only 7 weeks ago, the virus has paralyzed the most populous country on earth and essentially undermined the worlds industrial powerhouse.

Sth. Korea and Japan are now about 4 weeks behind China. God knows what is happening in Iran, Italy and now US. On the evidence I don't think the concern about this virus is overblown. I suspect the final problem will be more economic than death related.
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The picture of Pence and co praying their way out of this situation ? I fear that really is all they can do. The Trump administration has gutted the capacity of the CDC to effectively respond and they have appointed a person with almost no capacity to use the resources left effectively or show the leadership that will be required.

And the situation is deteriorating exponentially
 
Things aren't looking too good. Some fear in people I've met already.

History is full of plaque killers, unfortunately, e.g. Spanish Flu 1918, 50 - 100 million people . Initially it too had a low mortality rate.
 
Professor William Keevil, professor of environmental healthcare at the University of Southampton, said: "Our published human coronavirus work showed these viruses can survive three to four days on common touch surfaces such as plastics, ceramics, glass and stainless steel."

[Some say it survives two hours. Why then spray the streets?]

The Virus That Learns
Https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/phenomena/2013/02/27/the-virus-that-learns/

27 Feb 2013 - When a virus invades these bacteria, they capture fragments of its DNA and insert them into their CRISPR genes. ... In order to turn a virus's genes into new virus proteins, a microbe must first make a copy of the gene in a molecule called RNA. CRISPR genes can produce RNA molecules with a matching sequence.
 
noirua said:
Professor William Keevil, professor of environmental healthcare at the University of Southampton, said: "Our published human coronavirus work showed these viruses can survive three to four days on common touch surfaces such as plastics, ceramics, glass and stainless steel."

[Some say it survives two hours. Why then spray the streets?]

The Virus That Learns
Https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/phenomena/2013/02/27/the-virus-that-learns/

27 Feb 2013 - When a virus invades these bacteria, they capture fragments of its DNA and insert them into their CRISPR genes. ... In order to turn a virus's genes into new virus proteins, a microbe must first make a copy of the gene in a molecule called RNA. CRISPR genes can produce RNA molecules with a matching sequence.
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The big problem could be, if it mutates with something horrible, in Africa IMO.
 
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