Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

[cynic]

The actual answer is no for most States.
The more relevant statistic is the "positivity rate."
Once the positivity rate increases it is essential to increase the testing regime.
Testing is continuing to be carried out in all States, even when no local transmissions have occurred week after week.

Interesting comment.

Remembering that I was referring to "Victorians being tested", does your "actual answer" of "no for most States", apply to the State of Victoria, or is Victoria excepted?

 

[macca]

Well, if we ever needed proof that WHO is completely off with the fairies read this.............. just what exactly does he think the world needed and expected from WHO when this damn thing started

<<The director-general of the World Health Organisation has condemned a "lack of leadership" in fighting the coronavirus pandemic and made an emotional plea for global unity, as cases soar in multiple countries and the world struggles to contain the devastating virus more than six months after it was first identified.>>

https://www.9news.com.au/world/worl...p-threat/7096e17b-cdb6-4aee-80dd-d3e810fb4461

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Well, if we ever needed proof that WHO is completely off with the fairies read this....... just what exactly does he think the world needed and expected from WHO when this damn thing started

<<The director-general of the World Health Organisation has condemned a "lack of leadership" in fighting the coronavirus pandemic and made an emotional plea for global unity, as cases soar in multiple countries and the world struggles to contain the devastating virus more than six months after it was first identified.>>

more money please (and don't mention Taiwan)

 

[rederob]

Interesting comment.

Remembering that I was referring to "Victorians being tested", does your "actual answer" of "no for most States", apply to the State of Victoria, or is Victoria excepted?

Victoria had the same trend as other States until the "second wave." That is, ongoing testing was showing fewer cases.
However, the meaningful metric remains the "positivity rate." Correlations excluding positivity are without value.
Trump claims more testing shows more cases. Maybe so. However, unless the positivity rate is declining then you will have a lingering epidemic.

 

[rederob]

Well, if we ever needed proof that WHO is completely off with the fairies read this.............. just what exactly does he think the world needed and expected from WHO when this damn thing started

<<The director-general of the World Health Organisation has condemned a "lack of leadership" in fighting the coronavirus pandemic and made an emotional plea for global unity, as cases soar in multiple countries and the world struggles to contain the devastating virus more than six months after it was first identified.>>

https://www.9news.com.au/world/worl...p-threat/7096e17b-cdb6-4aee-80dd-d3e810fb4461

I have followed this from the early days.
You should read what the WHO has advised.
You should also read and understand what the WHO cannot advise on as you will be surprised.
Taiwan did what the WHO advised as soon as they were aware there was a problem. Korea did as well but got caught out by some religious fools who lied to border control.
Most SE Asian countries adopted the WHO protocols post SARS as they had been previously affected.
Most other countries waited for the **** to hit the fan.

 

[cynic]

Victoria had the same trend as other States until the "second wave." That is, ongoing testing was showing fewer cases.
However, the meaningful metric remains the "positivity rate." Correlations excluding positivity are without value.
Trump claims more testing shows more cases. Maybe so. However, unless the positivity rate is declining then you will have a lingering epidemic.

Trump appears to be correct!

It doesn't take statistical genius to recognise that, whilst undiagnosed cases exist in a community, increased testing will typically lead to increased discovery!

 

[bellenuit]

Trump appears to be correct!

It doesn't take statistical genius to recognise that, whilst undiagnosed cases exist in a community, increased testing will typically lead to increased discovery!

Yes, that's true if the percentage infected remains the same and could even be the case if the percentage infected is falling and the percentage fall is less than the percentage rise in testing.

But Trump has attributed the rise in infections purely due to the increase in testing. But this is patently false as the percentage of those tested who are infected is rising much faster than the increase in testing. This indicates it is spreading.

Also, increased testing should not lead to an increase in death rates, but that has now started to happen a few weeks following the latest infection surge, as has been expected.

The video in the attached article gives the figures that belie Trump's claim

Fact check: No, more testing isn't the reason US coronavirus case numbers are getting worse

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/07/09/...navirus-cases-donald-trump-testing/index.html

 

[rederob]

Trump appears to be correct!

It doesn't take statistical genius to recognise that, whilst undiagnosed cases exist in a community, increased testing will typically lead to increased discovery!

You should use data rather than guesswork.
Hubei recently tested almost 10 million to find some 300 cases.
China's testing regime has shown about one in a thousand to be positive.
Australia has about three times the Chinese rate.
In the USA the positivity rate has been increasing in many States. Florida recently had one in three test positive.
So your view about correlations is unsound.

 

[cynic]

You should use data rather than guesswork.
Hubei recently tested almost 10 million to find some 300 cases.
China's testing regime has shown about one in a thousand to be positive.
Australia has about three times the Chinese rate.
In the USA the positivity rate has been increasing in many States. Florida recently had one in three test positive.
So your view about correlations is unsound.

How so?

Since when is a direct observation, derived from a simple application of logic, unsound?

And by the way, my original post was in reference to a single State in Australia(i.e. Victoria), not the entire globe!

So unless those statistics you've chosen to cite, are derived from a near identical testing regime, then they cannot be reasonably treated as valid comparison.

 

[rederob]

How so?

Since when is a direct observation, derived from a simple application of logic, unsound?

And by the way, my original post was in reference to a single State in Australia(i.e. Victoria), not the entire globe!

So unless those statistics you've chosen to cite, are derived from a near identical testing regime, then they cannot be reasonably treated as valid comparison.

I responded to your point about Victoria.
Your idea was unsound and I explained why.
Your idea of logic and how data emanates is problematic, and I provided examples to show why.
Please learn the importance of positivity rates, as you seem not to have grasped that it is the pivotal issue.
I won't respond to your further points as you have a consistent theme of thinking that saying something rather than using evidence makes your points true.

 

[cynic]

From that response I take it that the testing regimes were of sufficient variance to demonstrate my point.

 

[qldfrog]

Nice headquarters in geneva with mercs there,

Who are slow acting as they are scared of upsetting governments and making a mistake. Basically weak leadership.

That said, I see some Australian scientists are arguing that the evidence shows that Covid does spread by large droplets and surfaces and no rf aerosol.

What is WHO now? It needs to be able to direct research and fund experiments. It should be coordinating responses. In reality it has no authority, no funding and lack of expertise. A shadow of what it should be.

Happened to leave the Leman lake walk and go past their headquarters and chauffeur cars toward train station in my last visit to Geneva..pure luck but showed the place to my son before the organisation came in the spotlight

 

[spooly74]

Week 27 for Stockholm updated and interestingly there's been a drop in cases. ICU admissions & deaths still in decline. Very promising.
And below, no decline in testing.

 

[qldfrog]

Week 27 for Stockholm updated and interestingly there's been a drop in cases. ICU admissions & deaths still in decline. Very promising.
And below, no decline in testing.

put it crudely, and looking at whole numbers not specific cases or exception like I know a 20y guy running a marathon who died of it yesterday
it means those who had to die died and then it is a serious flu as they happen every n years
the good thing is that as truth reveals..and it will in the US too, we do not have to wait that long to find out, a year or 2 max, just enough to wreck the west but not a generation with the global warming CO2..
One way or the other, most here will be able to see who is right /wrong today.
As to accepting the answer, that is another issue

 

[sptrawler]

As we mentioned in early posts, there is a possibility of long term damage and health problems, after catching the virus.
https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...-on-coronavirus-immunity-20200713-p55bgh.html
From the article:
Experts warn on heart damage
Coronavirus can damage the heart, with more than half of hospitalised patients revealing abnormal scans, a study has found.


A survey of 69 countries by the British Heart Foundation Centre of Research Excellence at the University of Edinburgh found that 55 per cent of 1261 patients studied had abnormal changes to the way their heart was pumping, with around one in seven showing evidence of severe dysfunction.

The team cautioned that the study cannot conclude how common heart changes are in people who did not receive scans; all patients in the study were already in hospital and had suspected heart complications.
But 901 of the patients studied had never been diagnosed with heart problems before, leading scientists to conclude that COVID-19 may seriously affect the heart.

Among this group, heart scans were abnormal in 46 per cent of patients and 13 per cent had severe disease. Dr Sonya Babu-Narayan, associate medical director at the British Heart Foundation and a consultant cardiologist, said: "Severe COVID-19 illness can result in damage to the heart and circulatory system."


The study, published in the European Heart Journal - Cardiovascular Imaging, found the abnormalities were almost evenly split between the left and right chambers of the heart. Some 3 per cent of patients had suffered a recent heart attack, according to the scans. As a result of scans, one third of patients had treatment changed.

Professor Marc Dweck, who led the research, said: "Damage to the heart is known to occur in severe flu, but we were surprised to see so many patients with damage to their heart with COVID-19 and so many patients with severe dysfunction."

 

[spooly74]

Paper from 2006.
Disease Mitigation Measures in the Control of Pandemic Influenza

https://citeseerx.ist.psu.edu/viewdoc/download?doi=10.1.1.552.1109&rep=rep1&type=pdf

Large-Scale Quarantine Measures
There are no historical observations or scientific studies that support the confinement by quarantine of groups of possibly infected people for extended periods in order to slow the spread of influenza. A World Health Organization (WHO) Writing Group, after reviewing the literature and considering contemporary international experience, concluded that “forced isolation and quarantine are ineffective and impractical.”

 

[basilio]

30-year-old dies after attending 'Covid party' in Texas
Patient said: ‘I think I made a mistake, I thought this was a hoax, but it’s not’, according to health official

A 30-year-old patient died after attending a ‘“Covid party”, believing the virus to be a hoax, a Texas medical official has said.

“Just before the patient died, they looked at their nurse and said ‘I think I made a mistake, I thought this was a hoax, but it’s not,’” said Dr Jane Appleby, the chief medical officer at Methodist hospital in San Antonio.

Appleby said: “I don’t want to be an alarmist, and we’re just trying to share some real-world examples to help our community realise that this virus is very serious and can spread easily.”

Florida reports 15,000 new coronavirus cases, a record single-day total in the US
Read more
A “Covid party” is a gathering held by somebody diagnosed with coronavirus to see if the virus is real and to see if anyone gets infected, she explained.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/13/30-year-old-dies-covid-party-texas

 

[Knobby22]

30-year-old dies after attending 'Covid party' in Texas
Patient said: ‘I think I made a mistake, I thought this was a hoax, but it’s not’, according to health official

A 30-year-old patient died after attending a ‘“Covid party”, believing the virus to be a hoax, a Texas medical official has said.

“Just before the patient died, they looked at their nurse and said ‘I think I made a mistake, I thought this was a hoax, but it’s not,’” said Dr Jane Appleby, the chief medical officer at Methodist hospital in San Antonio.

Appleby said: “I don’t want to be an alarmist, and we’re just trying to share some real-world examples to help our community realise that this virus is very serious and can spread easily.”

Florida reports 15,000 new coronavirus cases, a record single-day total in the US
Read more
A “Covid party” is a gathering held by somebody diagnosed with coronavirus to see if the virus is real and to see if anyone gets infected, she explained.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/13/30-year-old-dies-covid-party-texas

Took himself out of the gene pool. Darwin Award.

 

[Knobby22]

And the official death tally appears to be wrong...duh.

Death on arrival graph for Houston

While far more people died of COVID-19 in those cities than have died so far in Houston, researchers and paramedics say that the trend of sudden at-home deaths in Texas’ largest city is concerning because it shows that the virus’ toll may be deeper than what appears in official death tallies and daily hospitalization reports.

Many people who die at home are not tested for COVID-19, said Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency medicine physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Boston. In New York City, for example, only 16% of the 11,475 at-home deaths between February and June have been attributed to COVID-19, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

“There’s no reflexive testing,” Faust said, noting that medical examiners are selective about the cases they take. “There’s no pressure to call it a COVID death.”

The rise in at-home deaths may also reflect people who are afraid to go to the hospital because of COVID-19, and who die of heart attacks, strokes, diabetes and other conditions not tied to the coronavirus, Faust said.


https://www.texastribune.org/2020/07/08/houston-coronavirus-deaths-number/

 

[wayneL]

I think this is something that should be fact-checked. 2 things, 1/ That the man is unidentified, and 2/ it seems a pretty cogent thing for someone to say immediately dying from respiratory distress.

I'm not calling it out has bulshit at this stage but it is certainly unverified.