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Coronavirus (COVID-19/SARS-CoV-2) outbreak discussion

Will the "Corona Virus" turn into a worldwide epidemic or fizzle out?

  • Yes

    Votes: 37 49.3%

  • No

    Votes: 9 12.0%

  • Bigger than SARS, but not worldwide epidemic (Black Death/bubonic plague)

    Votes: 25 33.3%

  • Undecided

    Votes: 4 5.3%
  • Total voters
    75
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macca said:
Reading in todays paper that the outbreak in Sydney has been traced back to Melbourne. A truck driver returned from Melbourne, gave it to people at the depot, then went to the Pub which is the main source of the Sydney outbreak.

The interesting thing is that they were able to trace the strain of the virus, which means of course, that Melbourne has a different strain to Sydney.

Stop and think, a different strain has developed between two states, A Vaccine? wishful thinking !

If this is normal then it would seem very unlikely that a vaccine developed for a strain in UK will work here.

The flu vaccine is an example of this, in 2017 it was kindly rated as 10% effective

Batten down the hatches this will effect our economy and the rest of the world for a long time until we are forced to mask up and carry on, just like the Asian success stories
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Could be an issue but to early to tell, still I thing we have a long way to go.

Varied COVID-19 Strains Not a Problem for Vaccines -- For Now
— Experts say it's likely too early to worry

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85604
 
I think the U.S and U.K are caught in a cleft stick, they have a large population dependent on a working economy, that will have a dramatic implosion if the economy fails to function.
China is a different kettle of fish, it controls everything.
Even a lot of the EU doesn't have the same welfare drag that the U.K has, that is why so many refugees are desperate to get to the U.K.
But it makes much better media coverage, to concentrate on the U.K.
I might be wrong, but from a plebs perspective it makes sense, focus on a welfare state that is struggling rather than a country that may be doing nothing.
There are a lot of countries doing it a lot harder IMO, and it's those we should be helping.
Maybe the black lives matter, could focus on donations to help black African countries that are struggling with the virus.
 
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IFocus said:
Could be an issue but to early to tell, still I thing we have a long way to go.

Varied COVID-19 Strains Not a Problem for Vaccines -- For Now
— Experts say it's likely too early to worry

https://www.medpagetoday.com/infectiousdisease/covid19/85604
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Good article but does raise the doubt that if after all this time, we cannot come up with a permanent flu vaccine, it is very unlikely that we are going get something for Covid this year or perhaps ever.

For peace of mind I will keep taking what I hope are defence building supplements
 
I just read that Victorians who refuse a virus check, when entering SA will cop a $1000 fine, well that should sort out some smart ar$es.lol
 
Interesting idea on "Dry Tinder" with regard to current Covid mortality rates.
Thread focus here is on the Nordic countries and the disconnect between neighbours.
Worth keeping an eye on this as the user updates across more countries to see if there's any measurable correlation.
 
rederob said:
Try to keep your personal bile out of this.
Irrespective of your points, everything I said earlier is true.
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As was everything I said, explaining why a vaccine is almost certainly not possible, let alone in less than half the time taken to make any vaccine in history despite being incredibly difficult.

On topic, should a vaccine be available next year and I had the opportunity to prioritise its use, it would be an immediate requirement for all international travel. That would open up travel/tourism/hospitality which are some of the hardest hit sectors of economies and would negate the need for countries to collaborate on "bubbles."
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Yeah, and if time travel is invented by the end of the week we can just go back to mid 2019 and prevent the outbreak, but in reality there won't be a functional vaccine next year, and if a vaccine is in use next year it won't be functional, it'll just be used to save face.
 
Sdajii said:
As was everything I said, explaining why a vaccine is almost certainly not possible, let alone in less than half the time taken to make any vaccine in history despite being incredibly difficult.
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You have again guessed.
Of more than 100 current vaccine candidates there are over 20 in active trial phases, and two are into stage 3; and this is barely 6 months after the gene sequence became available. It's a pace of scale and development never previously encountered, and it's a reality you keep ignoring.
Sdajii said:
Yeah, and if time travel is invented by the end of the week we can just go back to mid 2019 and prevent the outbreak, but in reality there won't be a functional vaccine next year, and if a vaccine is in use next year it won't be functional, it'll just be used to save face.
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Irrational guesswork does not make a case.
 
The issue of the danger COVID 19 represents to community is far bigger than simply mortality. The longer term effects of the illness on people who are severely affected is becoming clearer.

Most Covid-19 patients admitted to a Sydney hospital in March still have symptoms
Exclusive: more than three months after being discharged from St Vincent’s hospital, some 80% continue to experience symptoms, doctors say

Prof Gregory Dore, an infectious diseases physician at the hospital, said because reports from around the world seemed to suggest the fatality rate among those infected was around 1%, that “some people therefore think that well, 99% of people get out without any trouble”.

“Well, that’s absolutely not the case,” he said. “When you have 10% or more people hospitalised, when you have even more that are managing with the virus out in the community, a proportion of those people having ongoing, debilitating symptoms.

“This is a scary virus in the way it can affect people. There is a significant minority of people who have this ongoing – if you want to call it – syndrome of debilitating symptoms, so we’re sort of looking very closely at that group, both in terms of evaluating their quality of life and mental health fatigue, looking at the neurocognitive function, and then looking immunologically at whether there are any markers that would predict a symptom. So those are devastating symptoms.”
https://www.theguardian.com/austral...-sydney-hospital-in-march-still-have-symptoms
 
The stage 3 trials don't end until march next year, and that assumes they're successful. Even if one eventually works out, it's going to take months for the whole planet to get vaccinated.

This is not going away any time soon.
 
You have to ask if the virus is being spread intentionally in Vic. Otherwise it was seriously under-reported
 
an acquaintance of mine thinks the virus isn't that harmful and that Sweden didn't have a lock-down and things turned out fine. to the people who have been following the news, what happened there ?

last time I checked Peter Hitchens thinks it's all over exaggerated
 
wayneL said:
Fyi

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Yea, my reading is if governments are willing to take risks then we will rush the process and increase the risk of adverse consequences. Some of the dodgier companies will do anything.

I heard there is a company in the USA pretty much skipping phase 1, straight into phase 2 by getting poor people in the USA and Africa to take the risk for a few bucks. And can you even trust them with the results?

As for the China vaccine tests, you can only imagine what is going on. Josef Mengele comes to mind.
 
moXJO said:
You have to ask if the virus is being spread intentionally in Vic. Otherwise it was seriously under-reported
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Possibly , but as you can spread the virus without knowing you have it, I think it's more like carelessness.
 
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