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Since when did the ASF become a 'share trading forum'?
Congratulations Australia - You are not in a recession
- Thread starter Trembling Hand
- Start date
Since when did the ASF become a 'share trading forum'?
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Up the creek with one paddle.
Let's see the biceps and balance steer this current - the ride should be one to remember. The rapids are well ahead of the route yet.
Let's see the biceps and balance steer this current - the ride should be one to remember. The rapids are well ahead of the route yet.
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Yes, this is the one that is very interesting to watch, the correlation between Treasuries and equities........
I thought we would see a Treasury rally with the USD rally, but it's yet to be seen. Obviously, this QE problem, along with inflation (potential for negative real interest rates) are a real concern at the moment for bond holders who are pushing up yields (though, these same factors should be an issue for USD holders).
Looks like the potential factoring in of an economic recovery is the difference with the better than expected jobs data. This would give rise to the USD and a fall in Treasuries. Ultimately, we should by this logic, see a further rise in equities........
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No, but good effort. The thread went like this.
- OP starts thread with an economic point, not investment. "Australia is not in a recession".
- Others agree and "LOL @ the coming doomsayers"
- I understand Keynesian / mainstream economics, and it is fundamentally retarded, built on modeling with amazingly flawed premises and assumptions. Keynes wasn't an economist, he was a witch doctor. If you have read his General Theory, you'll understand what bs it is. Citing humans "animal spirits" was the best he could come up with. These clowns had no idea the crisis was coming, so I take issue with them pronouncing it is over / we're not in a recession.
- I enter the thread, for I am somewhat proficient at economics. I make the point attacking the very premise of the figures and their foundation in reality. In jest, I get rhetorical and add some fiery words at those foolish enough to think we were out of a recession. That 'this whole crisis must be over'.
- No-one addresses the economic argument put forward, which destroys the notion we're out of a recession. Instead it is ignored, as the thread devolves as several folks take issue with me highlighting some prominent investors faults, in response to a post - 'that if THEY didn't see it, then no-one could have.' The focus continued to shift onto me personally, my personal investment style, what I do as a profession etc. Ad hominem's and fallacies galore.
- Temjin posts good info, confirming - govt fudged numbers and even by their own flawed modeling, they're not out of a recession.
That about right?
As far as Economics - if it is built of axioms & apriori reasoning (Austrian Economics), then it can give profound truths about the world and where the market will be heading, since the market is affected by government intervention & it's policies. It can give entrepreneurs & investors an insight into what the market will do, that they wouldn't otherwise have with all the other flawed and fallacious schools of economic thought.
Why Austrian Economics Matters - gives a good concise overview. It's "theory" is more of an explanation and it is correct. Again, there is a reason they said all this mess was coming - because they have the correct theory. And it describes reality. No other school does.
Investment - if it's Graham style investing sure. Where you fail is that you believe there needs to be a dichotomy between the two, which is completely wrong. Economics and Investment can compliment eachother. Furthermore, Austrian Economics is value free, it describes what IS.
Classical Liberalism, or Libertarianism in political philosophy - moves to what OUGHT to be.
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The Fortune Tellers
"The question is often asked, in James Buchanan's famous phrase, What Should Economists Do? Mainstreamers answer, in part: forecast the future. This goal is legitimate in the natural sciences, because rocks and sound waves do not make choices. But economics is a social science dealing with people who make choices, respond to incentives, change their minds, and even act irrationally.
Austrian economists realize that the future is always uncertain, not radically so, but largely. Human action in an uncertain world with pervasive scarcity poses the economic problem in the first place. We need entrepreneurs and prices to help overcome uncertainty, although this can never be done completely.
Forecasting the future is the job of entrepreneurs, not economists. This is not to say that Austrian economists cannot expect certain consequences of particular government policies. For example, they know that price ceilings always and everywhere create shortages, and that expansions of the money supply lead to general price increases and the business cycle, even if they cannot know the time and exact nature of these expected events."
As have the Austrians. And we are in the process of seeing it. Soros is not a God, he is not omniscient, so I don't see why you continue to give him such attributes?
It's not a matter of "opinion on a global-macro theoretical framework", it's a matter of logical deductions and economic reasoning built on premises that are correct. He "has got it wrong so many times", because he doesn't properly understand completely alternative models, nor the current one. Or he has, and bet against it and lost. i.e Russia. But winning sometimes, Ei.e Pound.
"letting price proove or disproove you. Nothing more, nothing less." - You mean empirically play out, right? Wouldn't that be the Austrians explaining everything years before, that it would - and is currently taking place, as they said it would?
Or do you mean to adhere to the fallacy, if you're not rich, you're wrong? If I'm Bill Gates with billions (because I provided a service to people), then my word on any given issue is unquestionable? Is that it?
Of course, open to persuasion - as am I. Nothing is worse than a closed mind. This furthers my point, he should learn about Austrian Economics... as should everyone else here in my opinion. You could better protect yourself assessing risk, and earn more by being able to correctly read the business cycle and attempt to assess it's points, of where it is in the cycle.
Kthxbye.
Trembling Hand
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Conza you are a ripper.
There is not a trader here that actually makes money who would gives a toss about what the Gov says happened last quarter.
The thread was a throw away tongue in cheek comment.
There is not a trader here that actually makes money who would gives a toss about what the Gov says happened last quarter.
The thread was a throw away tongue in cheek comment.
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LOL
I feel sorry for anybody who listens to this drivel.
I feel sorry for anybody who listens to this drivel.
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Let me first state, I bought Soros into this argument because he is a GREAT trader, far superceeding anybody of which you subscribe too. Now, the point was that if he KNEW the downfall was coming and could not time his exit, how could you? I guess you wouln't as you would not be in the bull market since the 1980s? Now to the rest of this BS.
Austrian economists realize that the future is always uncertain, not radically so, but largely. Human action in an uncertain world with pervasive scarcity poses the economic problem in the first place. We need entrepreneurs and prices to help overcome uncertainty, although this can never be done completely.
Read Soros book.
As have the Austrians. And we are in the process of seeing it. Soros is not a God, he is not omniscient, so I don't see why you continue to give him such attributes?
I am not, you are doing so on my behalf. Read first paragraph of why I bought him into the arguement.
It's not a matter of "opinion on a global-macro theoretical framework", it's a matter of logical deductions and economic reasoning built on premises that are correct. He "has got it wrong so many times", because he doesn't properly understand completely alternative models, nor the current one. Or he has, and bet against it and lost. i.e Russia. But winning sometimes, Ei.e Pound.
Whey even state such BS? Logical deductions and economic reasoning built on a premise that are correct is complete and utter rhetoric when it comes to the market. And winning SOME of the times, are you serious? Where are your billions? You formulate a theory and it prooves you right, or disprooves you, that leads to the next paragraph:
"letting price proove or disproove you. Nothing more, nothing less." - You mean empirically play out, right? Wouldn't that be the Austrians explaining everything years before, that it would - and is currently taking place, as they said it would?
You mean empirically play out, right? WTF, try hard academic. Explaining everything years before it played out and missing an entire bull market and the opportunity to cut and reverse.
Or do you mean to adhere to the fallacy, if you're not rich, you're wrong? If I'm Bill Gates with billions (because I provided a service to people), then my word on any given issue is unquestionable? Is that it?
Soros is rich because of the markets, we are talking about the markets and not a textbook right?
Of course, open to persuasion - as am I. Nothing is worse than a closed mind. This furthers my point, he should learn about Austrian Economics... as should everyone else here in my opinion. You could better protect yourself assessing risk, and earn more by being able to correctly read the business cycle and attempt to assess it's points, of where it is in the cycle.
Open to persuasion? L O L. He should learn about economics to better protect himself assessing risk and miss all the profits in the mean-time? And to more correctly read the business cycle? Which one? The one that was in the contraction phase in 1982 or in the early 2000s, both JUST before the biggest bull markets we have EVER witnessed?
DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT? OBVIOUSLY NOT. SORRY TO THE MAN THAT EVEN LISTENS TO YOUR ACADEMIC BS.
BTW, I have an economics degree, yet I am still ignorate to many things, as are you, as are the Austrians. Hence, you are not an open mind as you are not a trader.
Now let's go get two of the greatest traders of all-time confused (Soros and Buffett), no idea how ANY trader would do that. But I can see how an academic could. More concerned about being right, than about trading the markets.
Austrian economists realize that the future is always uncertain, not radically so, but largely. Human action in an uncertain world with pervasive scarcity poses the economic problem in the first place. We need entrepreneurs and prices to help overcome uncertainty, although this can never be done completely.
Read Soros book.
As have the Austrians. And we are in the process of seeing it. Soros is not a God, he is not omniscient, so I don't see why you continue to give him such attributes?
I am not, you are doing so on my behalf. Read first paragraph of why I bought him into the arguement.
It's not a matter of "opinion on a global-macro theoretical framework", it's a matter of logical deductions and economic reasoning built on premises that are correct. He "has got it wrong so many times", because he doesn't properly understand completely alternative models, nor the current one. Or he has, and bet against it and lost. i.e Russia. But winning sometimes, Ei.e Pound.
Whey even state such BS? Logical deductions and economic reasoning built on a premise that are correct is complete and utter rhetoric when it comes to the market. And winning SOME of the times, are you serious? Where are your billions? You formulate a theory and it prooves you right, or disprooves you, that leads to the next paragraph:
"letting price proove or disproove you. Nothing more, nothing less." - You mean empirically play out, right? Wouldn't that be the Austrians explaining everything years before, that it would - and is currently taking place, as they said it would?
You mean empirically play out, right? WTF, try hard academic. Explaining everything years before it played out and missing an entire bull market and the opportunity to cut and reverse.
Or do you mean to adhere to the fallacy, if you're not rich, you're wrong? If I'm Bill Gates with billions (because I provided a service to people), then my word on any given issue is unquestionable? Is that it?
Soros is rich because of the markets, we are talking about the markets and not a textbook right?
Of course, open to persuasion - as am I. Nothing is worse than a closed mind. This furthers my point, he should learn about Austrian Economics... as should everyone else here in my opinion. You could better protect yourself assessing risk, and earn more by being able to correctly read the business cycle and attempt to assess it's points, of where it is in the cycle.
Open to persuasion? L O L. He should learn about economics to better protect himself assessing risk and miss all the profits in the mean-time? And to more correctly read the business cycle? Which one? The one that was in the contraction phase in 1982 or in the early 2000s, both JUST before the biggest bull markets we have EVER witnessed?
DO YOU UNDERSTAND WHAT YOU ARE TALKING ABOUT? OBVIOUSLY NOT. SORRY TO THE MAN THAT EVEN LISTENS TO YOUR ACADEMIC BS.
BTW, I have an economics degree, yet I am still ignorate to many things, as are you, as are the Austrians. Hence, you are not an open mind as you are not a trader.
Now let's go get two of the greatest traders of all-time confused (Soros and Buffett), no idea how ANY trader would do that. But I can see how an academic could. More concerned about being right, than about trading the markets.
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Haha, good.
And MRC, mate, you've misunderstood basically everything I said in that post. Shame
Trembling Hand
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Conza it seems you have much "invested" into your school so its hard, maybe even fruitless, to argue but I will give it a go.
The problem I and I would think most practitioners of the markets have with your thinking is that you think you are ahead of the curve. That your knowledge of "government intervention & it's policies" give you an advantage of what the markets SHOULD do. But I would gladly bet against you that a trader would run rings around you in that regard. Around all of your Austrian friends.
Infact your theory, if you are honest with us, is exactly what I am saying. Is it not true that the basis of your Austrian School of Eco is that boffins, bureaucrats and economist are the MOST useless at pricing and finding opportunity. The true masters of the economy and where it is heading are the entrepreneurs?
The problem I and I would think most practitioners of the markets have with your thinking is that you think you are ahead of the curve. That your knowledge of "government intervention & it's policies" give you an advantage of what the markets SHOULD do. But I would gladly bet against you that a trader would run rings around you in that regard. Around all of your Austrian friends.
Infact your theory, if you are honest with us, is exactly what I am saying. Is it not true that the basis of your Austrian School of Eco is that boffins, bureaucrats and economist are the MOST useless at pricing and finding opportunity. The true masters of the economy and where it is heading are the entrepreneurs?
Thats laughable but the quote from your own article sums it up best,
Exactly, that is what traders DO.
It does not describe how to trade a bubble.
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Conza,
Let me take a punt here;
You are aged 18-25.
You are doing a uni degree in economics OR have recently completed one.
You think your economics degree makes you king of the markets AND you know more than everyone including George Soros who is the most successful trader of all time.
You are not a profitable trader.
When you trade you concentrate on one thing - being right.
How many out of 5 did i get
Brad
Let me take a punt here;
You are aged 18-25.
You are doing a uni degree in economics OR have recently completed one.
You think your economics degree makes you king of the markets AND you know more than everyone including George Soros who is the most successful trader of all time.
You are not a profitable trader.
When you trade you concentrate on one thing - being right.
How many out of 5 did i get
Brad
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What have I got "invested" in it? Please enlighten me? I said I am autodidactic. There has been no massive monetary investment. The only thing I am "invested" in is the truth and justice. I could level the EXACT same criticism back at you and the rest of the tribe.
Economic Laws are like gravity. They can't be avoided for long, and the more you do - the greater the pain will be. How did most traders go when the Tech Bubble burst? Housing Bubble?
You are going to have to make what you are saying clearer. Thanks. And you should probably stop using "theory" as a jibe. If your theory doesn't work in the real world, then it is a **** theory and wrong. "Good in theory" - is completely retarded and fallacious. The separation between theory and reality is wrong. Btw, the Austrian School doesn't have that problem - which all others do.
'No other "SCHOOL" does.' Economic SCHOOL of Thought. No other SCHOOL did. Why is this so hard to understand? Why do I feel like I am addressing children, when I'm clearly not?
That is a part of my god damn POINT! What I find hilarious is you think I contradicted myself. Haha.. Yes, that is what they DO. They allocate capital, just an entrepreneurs do. And they would be better at it, if they also understand the laws of Economics.
Do you not think, Economics should have ANY relevancy to investing at all? You don't think economic reality is a factor, not one iota? You don't think someone should consider what is happening in the agriculture industry, if there is going to be a policy passed, Carbon trading scheme? An increased tax for the coal industry? etc.. before investing?
You don't think it would be beneficial to realise the ramifications of such policies and the affect they will have? You don't think that the unintended consequences created by government intervention, doesn't provide unique opportunities for those in the know? Entrepreneurs can't benefit from such instances?
Nor is it meant to. See above para. I mean REALLY, you don't think any of that is relevant, or beneficial?
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Conza,
Let me take a punt here;
You are aged 18-25.
You are doing a uni degree in economics OR have recently completed one.
You think your economics degree makes you king of the markets AND you know more than everyone including George Soros who is the most successful trader of all time.
You are not a profitable trader.
When you trade you concentrate on one thing - being right.
How many out of 5 did i get
Brad
Beamstas, 2.
Let me take a punt here;
- You don't understand that age has no correlation with the truth?
- You don't understand that a uni degree in economics, doesn't contain Austrian Economics, for the precise reason the "intellectuals" have the wrong epistemology in the social sciences, and that this is part of the reason the world is in the mess it is in.
- You didn't see me openly proclaim I don't profess to know more than people here about investing and trading.
- You don't realise that monetary gains, achieved through government intervention in the market are ill gained, and also don't translate to the truth.
How many did i get
Conza
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prawn_86
Mod: Call me Dendrobranchiata
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LOL!!!
So you dont make any money at all Conza, because to do so would be supporting the current system and means its ill-gained.
Instead of trying to change the rules, why not work within them.
I couldnt care if its 'the truth' or not, as long as i have enough to live comfortably, then why should i give a toss?
And im sure you will go and write some essay as an answer trying to baffle people, but really no one here cares too much. We would rather make money.
Simple question - How do YOU plan on making money from this? And in what time frame?
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Beamstas, 2.
Let me take a punt here;
- You don't understand that age has no correlation with the truth?
- You don't understand that a uni degree in economics, doesn't contain Austrian Economics, for the precise reason the "intellectuals" have the wrong epistemology in the social sciences, and that this is part of the reason the world is in the mess it is in.
- You didn't see me openly proclaim I don't profess to know more than people here about investing and trading.
- You don't realise that monetary gains, achieved through government intervention in the market are ill gained, and also don't translate to the truth.
How many did i get
Conza
You still didn't answer my question.
Trembling Hand
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Conza I understand what you are saying. But its all useless for taking to the market Monday morning and taking money out of it. It really is.Its just common sense stuff but its why you are in gold since March not oil or bank stocks.
And I can prove it. I can prove that I know the system better than you. We can open accounts with any amount over any time and I will blow you out of the water with return.
Why?
Because you know how a car is put together and "should" perform under certain conditions, just an engineer or mechanic. I also know how it is put together & performs BUT I also know how to race it.
Being a mechanic is a world away from being a racer
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