Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Congratulations Australia - You are not in a recession

LOL!!! :eek::eek:

So you dont make any money at all Conza, because to do so would be supporting the current system and means its ill-gained.

Instead of trying to change the rules, why not work within them.

You have the wrong definition of 'ill-gained'. For eg. Mercantilism, ie. using coercion to achieve your monetary gains, is more accurate. And it depends on what you mean by the current system.

You can work within the rules, whilst also advocating they be changed. See: Peter Schiff, Jim Rogers, Mish etc.

I couldnt care if its 'the truth' or not, as long as i have enough to live comfortably, then why should i give a toss?

Would you care if it was unjust? Ie. Would you care if, you had to be a concentration camp director or guard? Or: "as long as i have enough to live comfortably, then why should i give a toss?"

And im sure you will go and write some essay as an answer trying to baffle people, but really no one here cares too much. We would rather make money.

Haha, not exactly trying to baffle people... :eek:

Living in a State-Run World

"Does that mean that all libertarians can cheerfully work for the government, apart from not lobbying for statism, and forget about conscience in this area? Certainly not. For here it is vital to distinguish between two kinds of State activities: (a) those actions that would be perfectly legitimate if performed by private firms on the market; and (b) those actions that are per se immoral and criminal, and that would be illicit in a libertarian society. The latter must not be performed by libertarians in any circumstances. Thus, a libertarian must not be: a concentration camp director or guard; an official of the IRS; an official of the Selective Service System; or a controller or regulator of society or the economy.

Let us take a concrete case, and see how our proffered criterion works. An old friend of mine, an anarcholibertarian and Austrian economist, accepted an important post as an economist in the Federal Reserve System. Licit or illicit? Moral or immoral? Well, what are the functions of the Fed? It is the monopoly counterfeiter, the creator of State money; it cartelizes, privileges and bails out banks; it regulates””or attempts to regulate”” money and credit, price levels, and the economy itself. It should be abolished not simply because it is governmental, but also because its functions are per se immoral. It is not surprising, of course, that this fellow did not see the moral problem the same way.

It seems to me, then, that the criterion, the ground on which we must stand, to be moral and rational in a state-run world, is to: (1) work and agitate as best we can, in behalf of liberty; (2) while working in the matrix of our given world, to refuse to add to its statism; and (3) to refuse absolutely to participate in State activities that are immoral and criminal per se."


Simple question - How do YOU plan on making money from this? And in what time frame?

The artificial boom is over, the bust has just started. I'd look at food, agriculture & commodities. Long term is the time frame. Short financials (But see the problem is, government intervention - banks should have gone bust, but the bailouts (keep these zombies alive) propping them up for a longer time, so it's risky.)

Part of the rational below:

Why Agriculture Commodities Are The Best Place To Invest - Jim Rogers
"The world has been consuming more than it produced. Food inventories are at a multi-decade low. And we haven't had any bad weather. We had isolated cases of droughts and things. That may never happen again. But if it does, the prices of food would go through the roof.

If there is climate change taking place, the best way to participate is through agriculture or through agriculture products. There are many positive things happening. Right now, there is a shortage of everything in agriculture ”” seeds, fertilisers, tractors, tractor tyres. We have a shortage of farmers because farming has been a horrible business for the past 30 years."​

 
You still didn't answer my question.


You still didn't answer my question.

Conza I understand what you are saying. But its all useless for taking to the market Monday morning and taking money out of it. It really is.Its just common sense stuff but its why you are in gold since March not oil or bank stocks.

Again, the fallacy of conflating what I have done personally with an entire school. You REALLY need to get past that. Who has said, all you can do is take money out of it? Again for the blind, deaf and dumb - See: Schiff, Rogers, Mish etc.

And I can prove it. I can prove that I know the system better than you. We can open accounts with any amount over any time and I will blow you out of the water with return.

And Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff would blow you out of the water with return. What have you refuted? Nothing. Good try but. :rolleyes: And again, you could go on to try cite bigger gainers, yet the fallacy still remains. Funny that.

Why? Because you know how a car is put together and "should" perform under certain conditions, just an engineer or mechanic. I also know how it is put together & performs BUT I also know how to race it.

Being a mechanic is a world away from being a racer :p:

To continue with this analogy. No, see you'd like to think you know how it performs better than the "mechanic", but you don't. (Economics) A racer doesn't necessairly know how the car is put together, but yes - he can race it better than the mechanic. (Entrepreneur / Investor). If the "track" is money, which it obviously is.

The kicker is - as a mechanic, I can tell if the car is about to fall apart, and the next time you race it, or experience overstear, understeer - you're going to crash, the breaks will buckle and you'll end up splattered against a tree.

The reality is - you can be a better racer, i.e Mick Doohan IF you ALSO KNOW THE MECHANICS.

"Despite up to eight rivals on almost identical Honda motorcycles Doohan's margin of superiority over them was such that in many races Doohan would build a comfortable lead and then ride well within his limits to cruise to victory. Although pure riding skill clearly played a large part in his success, his ability to perfect the suspension and geometry of a racing motorcycle gave him an enormous advantage over his rivals, even though other Honda riders (particularly Doohan's teammates) benefited somewhat from his ability to perfect the bike's handling."

So, as we can clearly see in this analogy, the best and 5 time world champions are those that have a combination of mechanics (Economics) and racing skills experience (Investment / trading / Entrepreneurship) ;)

Which, has been my point ALL along, and that of which I have not deviated. Again, I am struggling to comprehend the derision and opposition here...
 
Excuse me?

he owns 100% of the bank and is acting accordingly.

lol, you give a link to some banker who is now currently killing it. Great if you own a bank! Do you own a bank? Cause I don't, so more useless info.

"I thought it would end in six months, and sanity would return," he says. "If I knew it would last nearly four years I would have thought of something else to do."
lol, the fact he mistimed the market by such a large amount of time also points to how your theories are nearly impossible to actually trade or invest with. For the average Joe to have missed nearly 4 years of the biggest bull market ever isn't very good advice. There are people on these forums that rode the bull up, made money on the short side down and have made very good money on the long side again in the last 4 months.

You just keep spending time on your theories while we keep concentrating on actually pulling money from the markets.
 
And Jim Rogers, Peter Schiff would blow you out of the water with return. What have you refuted? Nothing. Good try but. :rolleyes: And again, you could go on to try cite bigger gainers, yet the fallacy still remains. Funny that.

Two thinks.

1. No they haven't as a % return. But they are in another league as far as $$.

2. This is the really annoying load of toss that you keep spewing up is your association to them? WTF?? They are traders first and foremost. You are nothing! They develop and implement and profit from their own Ideas you try to align yourself with them :confused:

You have to be kidding? So with all you knowledge of the mechanics of the car You post a YouTube link on how someone wants to drive?? :eek::cool:

You don't even know what you don't know. That is why you align yourself with others, you have nothing unique to offer. You are a beginner.
 
lol, you give a link to some banker who is now currently killing it. Great if you own a bank! Do you own a bank? Cause I don't, so more useless info.

No, I give you a link that completely destroyed your statement. You've then moved the goal posts. Originally requiring an example of real world application, I showed you exactly that. Cry me a river.

"I thought it would end in six months, and sanity would return," he says. "If I knew it would last nearly four years I would have thought of something else to do."

lol, the fact he mistimed the market by such a large amount of time also points to how your theories are nearly impossible to actually trade or invest with.

The fact that he is now killing it, destroys your theory "impossible to actually trade or invest with."

For the average Joe to have missed nearly 4 years of the biggest bull market ever isn't very good advice. There are people on these forums that rode the bull up, made money on the short side down and have made very good money on the long side again in the last 4 months.

You just keep spending time on your theories while we keep concentrating on actually pulling money from the markets.

strawman.jpg

And what school of thought gives that advice? :rolleyes:
 
Two thinks.

1. No they haven't as a % return. But they are in another league as far as $$.

It'd be good to know what that % is. And generally, they're in a bigger league as far as $$ because they have made better % returns previously / have a reputation for being spot on?

2. This is the really annoying load of toss that you keep spewing up is your association to them? WTF?? They are traders first and foremost. You are nothing! They develop and implement and profit from their own Ideas you try to align yourself with them :confused:

Schiff is a follower of the Austrian School of Economics. Same with the others, Shostak, Leithner etc. that is why.

The exact thing you keep saying investors have no need for. lmao

You have to be kidding? So with all you knowledge of the mechanics of the car You post a YouTube link on how someone wants to drive?? :eek::cool:

Kidding about what? Do you want me to personally write a report on the fundamentals of the Australian economy or something? Sure, I'll do it for you - if you pay me. I don't particularly see a need considering, there are those that have already done it for me, and I agree with the analysis. See Leithner. And more to the point; it is like footnoting, you keep pawning it of as if this is just me, some crackpot spewing theories that have never been proven -- yet that is fundamentally fallacious, wrong and primarily retarded. So I back up what I've been saying, with the words of others, it makes it so much harder for the clowns to outright dismiss it.

You don't even know what you don't know. That is why you align yourself with others, you have nothing unique to offer. You are a beginner.

I do know what I don't know, and that is part of wisdom. "Real knowledge is to know the extent of one's ignorance." - Confucius

I have openly stated, I am relatively new to investing / trading, but not to economics. I admit I am a beginner, in one area, yet you won't in another. Whose being intellectually honest? Eh? I don't align myself with others, I simply point out that there are others that believe in this school of economic thought, they adhere to it, they run Hedge funds, own investment firms and are amazingly successful - it is a complete refutation or your attempts to attack and belittle me personally, and try drag down the School of thought with me, to dismiss it entirely, out of hand.
 
I have openly stated, I am relatively new to investing / trading, but not to economics. I admit I am a beginner, in one area, yet you won't in another. Whose being intellectually honest? Eh? I don't align myself with others, I simply point out that there are others that believe in this school of economic thought, they adhere to it, they run Hedge funds, own investment firms and are amazingly successful - it is a complete refutation or your attempts to attack and belittle me personally, and try drag down the School of thought with me, to dismiss it entirely, out of hand.

Thats because I'm not new to economics. I have been a practising entrepreneur all my working life through my OWN business and trading. I have spent less than 10% of my life working for the man. I live and practise ECONMICS.

You read books!!

Enough said.
 
Economic Laws are like gravity. They can't be avoided for long, and the more you do - the greater the pain will be.

LOL.

And you do understand that Jim Rogers was a partner but JR and analyst, to Mr Soros? And that Soros has ALWAYS believed in regulation to correct market flaws but Rogers believes in pure free markets?

Your entire arguement is based on mis-information.

BTW, why would traders loose in crashes? Many take the short side and make a mint, it's one of the best times for most shorter timeframe traders (such as intraday) as initial turning points in a boom/bust sequence are characterised by increases in volatility (just look at the VIX).
 
It'd be good to know what that % is. And generally, they're in a bigger league as far as $$ because they have made better % returns previously / have a reputation for being spot on?

I'm just going to jump in here and point out that Rogers and Schiff are not traders. Rogers regularly points this out. A trader should be able to achieve a much better return than an "investor", since they're trading on a far faster timescale.

Rogers and Schiff are certainly not spot on, and Rogers admits it. Schiff has been warning us about the end of the world for a good 7-8 years. Apparently he hasn't performed so well since his predictions started coming true, which brings up a couple points of interest.

First, successful predicting does not equal successful trading. It's very common for people to be "right" while still losing on their trades. A good economist does not necessarily make a good trader (in fact most economists are horrible traders), and one does not need to have a solid understanding of economics to be a good trader. They're two different activites.

Second, timeframe. Some might say that Schiff's strategies haven't had enough time to play out, and that his current poor performance can very well still come good. This may be true, but while he's waiting, a good trader has made a small fortune.

Should we ignore that he has never indicated a timeframe for all of this? I might as well say roulette, red 36. It will come up eventually, and I'll be able to say "I told you so". This crisis was certainly not unpredictable, and Schiff has just happened to be one of the loudest opposing voices. Yes, a little credit for picking the inevitable crash, but it's of little use for trading.

I'm not trying to attack Schiff, but I don't see how his name can be used as an argument for being right. I also question, if he's so successful, why he runs a brokerage rather than a managed fund.

Rogers we know is in it for the long haul and will take longer to play out, but again, while we wait for that to happen, a small but good trader has made a small personal fortune.

Schiff is a follower of the Austrian School of Economics. Same with the others, Shostak, Leithner etc. that is why.

Not all Austrians have the same point of view.
 
I'd love to see TH and Conza go head to head on a live trading account.

Let's make it a fair game though. TH gets 1 week to trade and Conza gets 10 years to trade.

My :2twocents is on TH still.
 
LOL.

And you do understand that Jim Rogers was a partner but JR and analyst, to Mr Soros? And that Soros has ALWAYS believed in regulation to correct market flaws but Rogers believes in pure free markets?

Your entire arguement is based on mis-information.

Oh and before you rip into Soros advising the liquidity pump into the banks, you may want to see he is a believer in human behaviour driving fundamentals and hence, boom/bust sequences. He believes regulation should be in place to stop such blow-outs and that expansion of credit and liquidity need to be controlled and balanced with economic growth and trade balances and currencies need to be controlled or you get situations of unhealthy blowouts (which ended in the recent bust).

Rogers, on the other hand, is a free markets man.

Do you understand you are ripping into a man who is MUCH closer to your school of though (in Soros) and praising a man who does not believe in just about ANYTHING you have stated (in Rogers)?

Oh and Rogers took 16mil out of Quantum fund worth 381mil when he left. Very very little in the scheme of things.

He then went on to make huge gains on commodities and held them the entire way down. Soros owns nearly the entire worth of Quantum fund now, in excess of 11bil and has given away 6bil since the 70s (that haven't been compounded, which would make him the richest man in the world). Soros sold out of commodities and bought huge stakes in energy and metals near the bottom.

Enough said.

Try understanding what you are talking about and how successful traders apply it, before assigning traits and theories to certain people with such firm conviction.
 
Economic Laws are like gravity. They can't be avoided for long, and the more you do - the greater the pain will be. How did most traders go when the Tech Bubble burst? Housing Bubble?

I think most traders who know what they're doing did quite well out of it.

Disagree on econ laws being like gravity. Please provide a proper example of such.
Equity markets can ignore even the most basic econ rules. Supply and Demand graph for example; When prices go up demand should fall, supply should rise however Demand can go up instead momentum etc.. its a gross generalisation but econ will tell u nothing about how that just happened or why that happened other than the usual more supply than demand or more demand than supply stuff.
 
I think most traders who know what they're doing did quite well out of it.

Disagree on econ laws being like gravity. Please provide a proper example of such.
Equity markets can ignore even the most basic econ rules. Supply and Demand graph for example; When prices go up demand should fall, supply should rise however Demand can go up instead momentum etc.. its a gross generalisation but econ will tell u nothing about how that just happened or why that happened other than the usual more supply than demand or more demand than supply stuff.

Economic laws don't really mean much currently, as most things are being manipulated to suit an outcome ie have a look at the Dow chart for the last 10 days. Hedge funds will push or pull a price depending on which way the wind blows, without much regards for fundamentals either eg the oil price - do we have an oil glut; is there 100m barrels of oil sitting in tankers? Doesn't matter, the market thinks there will be a recovery and is second guessing again, pre-empting a possibility?

It's become an even bigger money shuffling flip flop excercise the last 4 months as markets re adjust to some sort of manipulated price discovery system without the usual number of market participants to counter any particular trend by those who simply can make the trend their friend!

We are in recession, despite whatever the technical definition is, and the apparently flawed way in which the last set of figures were calculated. You only have to look at the State's budget's having to sell off more of the farm just to break even - clearly unsustainable in even the medium term - indicating some severe structural abnormalities that need to be addressed.
 
We are in recession, despite whatever the technical definition is, and the apparently flawed way in which the last set of figures were calculated. You only have to look at the State's budget's having to sell off more of the farm just to break even - clearly unsustainable in even the medium term - indicating some severe structural abnormalities that need to be addressed.

Or, maybe we could just BULLDOZE THE FARM like Unca ObamaSan will be forced to do? :eek:

DOZENS of US cities may have neighbourhoods bulldozed as part of drastic "shrink to survive" proposals being considered by the Obama Administration to tackle economic decline.
http://business.theage.com.au/business/us-cities-bulldoze-their-way-to-survival-20090613-c6r9.html

Of course, the myopic, inward-looking US could always adopt an ETERNAL GROWTH strategy (like good ol' OZ), instead of BULLDOZING their way to oblivion, by opening up Fortress USA to easy-peasy mass immigration (like good ol' OZ!)

Instead of manning the Mexicano Border, them good ol' Yankees jest need a flood of good ol' cheep-cheep peasantry to work tha good ol' land for 'em! ;) :hide:
 
Them good ol' Yankees jest need some cheep-cheep peasantry to work tha land for 'em! ;) :hide:
That's exactly why, despite all their huffing and puffing, they're not all that concerned about illegal mexicans.
 
Economic laws don't really mean much currently, as most things are being manipulated to suit an outcome ie have a look at the Dow chart for the last 10 days. Hedge funds will push or pull a price depending on which way the wind blows, without much regards for fundamentals

Uncle I disagree with why we are getting theses moves. Its not the old conspiracy fans favorite of straight manipulation by hedge funds/PPT/Catholic church :p:

Its just the movement of punters to intraday timeframe because of the uncertainty of how this market is moving over the larger time frame. Have a look at the ES futs increase in volume over these large last 30 min swings.

its just closing of trades by the punters that have not yet been stopped out.
 
I'm not trying to attack Schiff, but I don't see how his name can be used as an argument for being right. I also question, if he's so successful, why he runs a brokerage rather than a managed fund.

So he can get paid during the 9 out of 10 years when his wrong about the market.
 
So he can get paid during the 9 out of 10 years when his wrong about the market.

Yes, the fact he uses guys like this, or Rogers (as close to Keynesian, neo-classical and Adam Smith as you get), shows his academic nature. He is more concerned about being right and 'prooving' his theory, than with the reality of his arguement.

Sad, for someone who claims an open mind, he sure fits (false) inflormation into his debate.

But most academics are the same, hence why they make poor traders. I've heard some funny stories of THE BEST (literally) students from Oxford trying to make their way on trading floors. Don't even last longer than a few wks.
 
So he can get paid during the 9 out of 10 years when his wrong about the market.

Those that can't do, sell ;).

I've heard some funny stories of THE BEST (literally) students from Oxford trying to make their way on trading floors. Don't even last longer than a few wks.

Trading and related activities are a good judge of practical intelligence.
 
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