Congratulations Australia - You are not in a recession

[Trembling Hand]

Nope. Amazing the logical fallacies you folks are coming out with.

Just because my individual actions, means I haven't chosen to invest in stocks doesn't mean that others can't, using the same foundations.

No my friend its you that have it ar$e about. Most here who actually trade seen this mess coming and have profited from it. Not only on the way down but again on the way up.

You have just stood aside with the nutters waiting for gold to go to $3000.

So I will get to my point. What are you telling us?

 

[Conza88]

No my friend its you that have it ar$e about. Most here who actually trade seen this mess coming and have profited from it. Not only on the way down but again on the way up.

You have just stood aside with the nutters waiting for gold to go to $3000.

So I will get to my point. What are you telling us?

You've got a short term outlook & I have a long term outlook.

We'll see who ends up "winning" in the long run. Congratulations on your 'profits' so far, I hope they last.

I'd be interested in why you thought this mess was coming, how you saw it before everyone else and what caused it.

Please enlighten me.

And please don't personify me as the embodiment of an entire school. That would be retarded. Again, I chose one path and NUMEROUS OTHERS who run investment companies, worth billions of dollars or themselves worth billions have done otherwise. They didn't just "[stand] aside with the nutters". Which is a fallacy. You do understand fallacies kill arguments, right?

 

[Trembling Hand]

You've got a short term outlook & I have a long term outlook.

We'll see who ends up "winning" in the long run. Congratulations on your 'profits' so far, I hope they last.

I'd be interested in why you thought this mess was coming, how you saw it before everyone else and what caused it.

Please enlighten me.

Many here were calling trouble from easy money at the end of 07. Many were calling a significant rally from March because of easy money. :

 

[Conza88]

Many here were calling trouble from easy money at the end of 07. Many were calling a significant rally from March because of easy money. :

- Failure to address the why, who / (what) and how, duly noted...

Thanks for the 'when', but the end of 07 / start of 08 - has nothing on 2002. :

 

[Beej]

- Failure to address the why, who / (what) and how, duly noted...

Thanks for the 'when', but the end of 07 / start of 08 - has nothing on 2002. :

LOL - you are seriously proud of someone making a call 6 years before it actually happened? How more wrong could you be? There was a full blown bull stock market for 4 of those 6 years that you would have completely missed out on by paying head to such predictions!

Beej

 

[robots]

hello,

great news we not in recession and to celebrate anybody in Melbourne can get down to the Harmony Walk this sunday

leaving at 11am from the Flemington Community Centre and walking to Etihad Stadium for the Essendon game

its been a great community effort in keeping australia plodding along out of recession,

the next challenge for the community is solving the issue's many foreign students are facing

thankyou
associate professor robots

 

[MS+Tradesim]

Always amused by the pipsqueaks on forums who are somehow "more in the know" than guys like Buffet and Soros, yet I seriously doubt they'll ever have the same clout or success.

The Guru oscillator is spiking again.

 

[Conza88]

LOL - you are seriously proud of someone making a call 6 years before it actually happened? How more wrong could you be? There was a full blown bull stock market for 4 of those 6 years that you would have completely missed out on by paying head to such predictions!

Beej

LOL - that is precisely the point. The bubble was being artificially inflated and the Austrians were the only ones that called it. The trouble is, you can't gauge precisely when the bubble will burst because it is pinned on many factors. Government intervention? Does the FED lower rates even more? Or do what they are supposed to do and raise them? It is risky. But more knowledge about the CAUSES, about the actual true happenings of the market (or the things that affect it, i.e money - it's supply etc.) allows you to position yourself accordingly.

As I said previously, I discovered Austrian Economics / Graham style investing a year and a bit ago. Well before the bubble started to be inflated... getting in now would be the completely idiotic thing to do, I missed the boat essentially. For just before it all started to unravel, I listened to the folks who said it would and advised others I know to get their stocks out aswell. They did and benefited from it.

Now, If I had taken advice from the 'mainstream' folk, whilst remaining completely ignorant of Austrian Economics... I should have bought a house because "prices only go up." "New land doesn't just appear". "It's guarenteed".

And that is exactly what a bloke was telling me, he just bought a house and was suggesting I do the same. I know now, it's a bubble. And it will burst. What's holding it up atm? Home buyer grants. Greaaaaaaaaaat.

But yes, if I was aware of it back in 2002+ someone could easily have bought many houses, if they had the capital / equity. Sat on them for a few years, then sold them just before the doom started to come on the horizon. Again, risk involved - it could have go pear shaped real fast... like it did in 1920, but it was over in a year and that's why you never hear about it in the history books.

So once again, thanks for completely misinterpreting what I've said...

 

[GumbyLearner]

And that is exactly what a bloke was telling me, he just bought a house and was suggesting I do the same. I know now, it's a bubble. And it will burst. What's holding it up atm? Home buyer grants. Greaaaaaaaaaat.


So once again, thanks for completely misinterpreting what I've said...

I'm not going to misinterpret what you have said Conza. I understand that there 'maybe' people who will twist what you're trying to say. But seriously it's all twenty/twenty to me. Keep 'em coming.

Fantastic that you joined ASF.

Cheers mate.

 

[Trembling Hand]

LOL - that is precisely the point. The bubble was being artificially inflated and the Austrians were the only ones that called it.

Complete and utter :bs: . The only ones. You have to be kidding?

As I said previously, I discovered Austrian Economics / Graham style investing a year and a bit ago. Well before the bubble started to be inflated...

Boy Boy. How funny are these recent experts. I mean what a joke. Here's a guy that has "discovered Austrian Economics" 18 months ago and here he is banging on telling everyone who makes money from the markets for a very much longer period than that they didn't see it coming and they don't know because they aren't part of the group.

The funniest thing is with all this the best he can come up with is to stand aside like a lost fool and "hedge for inflation". And then convince himself that he can tell others he's ways the way!! Just too much!!

 

[Beej]

LOL - that is precisely the point. The bubble was being artificially inflated and the Austrians were the only ones that called it. The trouble is, you can't gauge precisely when the bubble will burst because it is pinned on many factors. Government intervention? Does the FED lower rates even more? Or do what they are supposed to do and raise them? It is risky. But more knowledge about the CAUSES, about the actual true happenings of the market (or the things that affect it, i.e money - it's supply etc.) allows you to position yourself accordingly.

That's like saying "I know that roughly once every ten years or so there will be a stock market correction and economic slump, so I will always position myself for the slump", and then of course NEVER make any money from the good times which represent the MAJORITY of the time period!

Conza it's nothing personal, but since everyone started banging on about Austrian economics on internet forums over the past couple of years I have done a bit of research into it, and my conclusions are that it is widely disproven and not regarded well at all in academic and mainstream economic circles at all. Comments like the above really just vindicate this conclusion completely IMO. Sorry to burst YOUR bubble!

Now, If I had taken advice from the 'mainstream' folk, whilst remaining completely ignorant of Austrian Economics... I should have bought a house because "prices only go up." "New land doesn't just appear". "It's guaranteed".

I don't want to get into this topic here too much as we have two other comprehensive threads! But bottom line is I think you are wrong on this one too. For a start there are no mainstream economic theories that say that house prices only rise - of course they can fall, certainly in real terms moreso than in nominal. It's only industry spruiking and perhaps popular AU housing culture that says they only go up.

The housing market is complex though and simplistic Austrian idea's will never provide you with decent entry/exit signals IMO, especially for something as specialised as a purchase in a specific suburb/city, and with such high costs of entry/exit plus even a high cost of not being in the market (ie rent!). If that is what you are looking for - all they will tell you is to never enter the market! Riiiighhhht....... I mean if you can't pick an inevitable stock market correction to within +/- 5 years when they occur roughly every 10 years, what hope do you have to time a major housing market correction when they have happened (in a serious way - Ie more than 20% nominal price falls) maybe only 2 or 3 times in the past century?? Anyway good luck with that one - but I am very confident now that this period in history is NOT the time when the AU housing market is going to see any major correction - the opportunity for a systemic financial crisis to trigger that has passed - so maybe if you wait another 10, 20 or 30 years you might be proven correct

Cheers,

Beej

 

[Conza88]

Complete and utter :bs: . The only ones. You have to be kidding?

Don't take it out of context. The context was 2002. They were the only ones who were aware of the bubble was starting to be inflated. Fine, call bs? But can you actually back it up with an argument? Like I dunno, ____ also called it in 2002? Examples help.

Boy Boy. How funny are these recent experts. I mean what a joke. Here's a guy that has "discovered Austrian Economics" 18 months ago and here he is banging on telling everyone who makes money from the markets for a very much longer period than that they didn't see it coming and they don't know because they aren't part of the group.

I don't consider myself an expert, yet. I'm just letting others know there are alternative theories out there, that they were never shown nor mentioned at University - if they went. And if they didn't, still more likely they've never heard of the alternatives.

The alternatives have a theory, and it has constantly been vindicated over and over, and over again. Every crisis and recession has been foretold by the only true free market economists.

I don't know why anyone who wants to make money, wouldn't listen to them? What's the problem? My incentive is that I want to spread the message of Sound Economics and Liberty. The more Australians using logic and deductive reasoning the better.

The funniest thing is with all this the best he can come up with is to stand aside like a lost fool and "hedge for inflation". And then convince himself that he can tell others he's ways the way!! Just too much!!

I am open to persuasion, completely. I used to be a Chomskyite independent socialist before I discovered Ron Paul and subsequently eventually decided to take a look at Austrian Economics. I then went about the process of shedding fallacies.

There is a lot I can learn from folks here no doubt, about investing and other intricacies. I asked for your explanation behind, how (theory / method) you called it, and what you think caused this crisis. Yet you have been completely silent.

I'd be interested in why you thought this mess was coming, how you saw it before everyone else and what caused it.

Please enlighten me.

- Failure to address the why, who / (what) and how, duly noted...

Don't just be a critic, put forward your explanation and we'll see how it stands up. I'm not saying - DO IT this way, I'm just suggesting there is an alternative - which I think many would benefit from. Again - don't be a clown & brand a school of thought with what I have done, can't you see the fallacious of that? Fundamentally, that's the exact same thing as - a person robs a bank, he is black. You then consider all black people as potential bank robbers. Is that logical?

 

[Conza88]

That's like saying "I know that roughly once every ten years or so there will be a stock market correction and economic slump, so I will always position myself for the slump", and then of course NEVER make any money from the good times which represent the MAJORITY of the time period!

This article will outline precisely what I am talking about. Since a few here seem to have an aversion to theory, this doesn't contain any. It's all real world events, pragmatic, blah blah - with the correct theory implicit behind it.

The Banker who Said No - Forbes
"While the nation's lenders ran amok during the boom, Andy Beal hoarded his money. Now he's cleaning up--with scant help from Uncle Sam...."

Beal plays his cards patiently. For three long years, from 2004 to 2007, he virtually stopped making or buying loans. While the credit markets were roaring and lenders were raking in billions, Beal shrank his bank's assets because he thought the loans were going to blow up. He cut his staff in half and killed time playing backgammon or racing cars. He took long lunches with friends, carping to them about "stupid loans." His odd behavior puzzled regulators, credit agencies and even his own board. They wondered why he was seemingly shutting the bank down, resisting the huge profits the nation's big banks were making. One director asked him: "Are we a dinosaur?"

Read on...​

Conza it's nothing personal, but since everyone started banging on about Austrian economics on internet forums over the past couple of years I have done a bit of research into it, and my conclusions are that it is widely disproven and not regarded well at all in academic and mainstream economic circles at all. Comments like the above really just vindicate this conclusion completely IMO. Sorry to burst YOUR bubble!

And... so you are siding with those completely blindsided by this whole mess? Those who were refuting the possibility of a recession up until mid 2008 after the US elections? lol.

Yes, those in "academia" consider it wrong. And it all stems from their flawed Economic reasoning. They are positivists and empiricists. They believe you can establish economic laws through modeling and by trying to use the scientific method (trial and error) to achieve the truth.

The problem is that economics is different. It deals with human interaction of individuals. The correct theory of value is SUBJECTIVE. You may value something more or less than I do. It depends on the individuals tastes, preferences etc. You can't model that - and attempts to do so will fail completely.

Epistemological Problems of Economics by Ludwig Von Mises

"The science of human action that strives for universally valid knowledge is the theoretical system whose hitherto best elaborated branch is economics. In all of its branches this science is a priori, not empirical. Like logic and mathematics, it is not derived from experience; it is prior to experience. It is, as it were, the logic of action and deed."​

I don't want to get into this topic here too much as we have two other comprehensive threads! But bottom line is I think you are wrong on this one too. For a start there are no mainstream economic theories that say that house prices only rise - of course they can fall, certainly in real terms moreso than in nominal. It's only industry spruiking and perhaps popular AU housing culture that says they only go up.

I'll also avoid going into it here. Could you maybe link to those other threads, where it is more relevant? Thanks! I'd really like to know why you consider it wrong. Who knows, I may have overlooked something!

The housing market is complex though and simplistic Austrian idea's will never provide you with decent entry/exit signals IMO, especially for something as specialised as a purchase in a specific suburb/city, and with such high costs of entry/exit plus even a high cost of not being in the market (ie rent!). If that is what you are looking for - all they will tell you is to never enter the market! Riiiighhhht....... I mean if you can't pick an inevitable stock market correction to within +/- 5 years when they occur roughly every 10 years, what hope do you have to time a major housing market correction when they have happened (in a serious way - Ie more than 20% nominal price falls) maybe only 2 or 3 times in the past century?? Anyway good luck with that one - but I am very confident now that this period in history is NOT the time when the AU housing market is going to see any major correction - the opportunity for a systemic financial crisis to trigger that has passed - so maybe if you wait another 10, 20 or 30 years you might be proven correct

Cheers,
Beej

As far as I'm aware, Australian hasn't got an institution such as Freddie Mae, or Freddie Mac... but we have government handouts, 'first home owners grant', that distorts the market just the same.

The Austrian ideas aren't simplistic in their logical structure. One of the prime reasons Austrian economics is harder for layman to grasp is that it usually takes 2 steps to reach the right conclusion. Whereas the fallacies of modern day economics only take 1. For instance the broken window fallacy! And what is seen, and unseen.* Would love to elaborate on this if anyone so chooses or doesn't quite know what I am on about.

You are right about specific suburb, timing and buying. It wouldn't be able to help you with that, and it DOESN'T PRETEND that it could.

Austrian School of Economics. It doesn't deal with investing methods etc, because that isn't its goal. Nor should it be. Yet that is where / why Graham style investing comes in for me. Understanding political economy and political philosophy is fundamental though, imo - because you know what certain actions politicians and government intervention will create. And again, you can position yourself accordingly to avoid risk, or profit.

You also doesn't seem to understand the proper connection between inflation and prices. According to the Reserve Bank of Australia's figures, M3 rose 114% since June 2001 to May 2008. From 469.3 Billion to 1004.8 Billion.

There is a reason a paddle pop used to cost below $1, and now it's just below $2. Essentially doubling in price. Hint: it's not because the company got greedy. lol Housing prices are exactly the same.

The Bailout Reader​

Currently the correction is being prevented by government intervention. Which is detrimental. Instead of letting prices fall - as they would have, so that then poor people, young couples, first home buyers etc. can afford to buy, INSTEAD - they PROP UP the artificial prices, and offer a solution - ok, we'll steal (tax) from the populace (other individuals), and give you the money so you can buy a house at the artificially high price levels.

More examples of government addressing the SYMPTOMS of a problem, caused by government intervention. Making it worse... You don't think this knowledge would be useful to an investor?

 

[Trembling Hand]

Don't take it out of context. The context was 2002. They were the only ones who were aware of the bubble was starting to be inflated. Fine, call bs? But can you actually back it up with an argument? Like I dunno, ____ also called it in 2002? Examples help.

I don't consider myself an expert, yet. I'm just letting others know there are alternative theories out there, that they were never shown nor mentioned at University - if they went. And if they didn't, still more likely they've never heard of the alternatives.

The alternatives have a theory, and it has constantly been vindicated over and over, and over again. Every crisis and recession has been foretold by the only true free market economists.

I don't know why anyone who wants to make money, wouldn't listen to them? What's the problem? My incentive is that I want to spread the message of Sound Economics and Liberty. The more Australians using logic and deductive reasoning the better.

OMG! No buddy let me make it perfectly clear. You are telling us stuff thats

OLD

Please you have some theories in your head and no doubt a bunch of quotes to up-chuck.

But you have nothing. Certainly no way to profit and sitting in gold is as good as you get??

 

[prawn_86]

Have to say i agree with TH. Its all well and good knowing about Austrian Economics, but in rewality that form of thinking is not going to take over for a long longe time, if ever.

So in the meantime why not focus no making money with the system that is in place? As opposed to 'sitting it out' for years on end

 

[Conza88]

OMG! No buddy let me make it perfectly clear. You are telling us stuff thats OLD

Old doesn't make it WRONG. Now does it?

Please you have some theories in your head and no doubt a bunch of quotes to up-chuck.

Theory? I love it how there are those who berate "theory", as having nothing to do with reality. No - your theory sucks if it has nothing to do with reality. There is no distinction.

"In the first place, we must challenge the very idea of a radical separation between something that is “true in theory” but “not valid in practice.”

If a theory is correct, then it does work in practice; if it does not work in practice, then it is a bad theory. The common separation between theory and practice is an artificial and fallacious one. But this is true in ethics as well as anything else. If an ethical ideal is inherently “impractical,” that is, if it cannot work in practice, then it is a poor ideal and should be discarded forthwith.

To put it more precisely, if an ethical goal violates the nature of man and/or the universe and, therefore, cannot work in practice, then it is a bad ideal and should be dismissed as a goal. If the goal itself violates the nature of man, then it is also a poor idea to work in the direction of that goal.” – Egalitarianism a Revolt Against Nature by Murray N. Rothbard

But you have nothing. Certainly no way to profit and sitting in gold is as good as you get??

Why do you continue to use the same fallacies? It is disingenuous and to be honest, getting rather tiring.

Certainly no way to profit? Tell that to Peter Schiff and Jim Rogers.. Frank Shostak and Chris Leithner.. seriously, stop peddling bs. It gets you no-where. "Sitting in gold" is not as good as it gets, as I have already elaborated.

Again - you evaded my questions. What's the problem?

Have to say i agree with TH. Its all well and good knowing about Austrian Economics, but in rewality that form of thinking is not going to take over for a long longe time, if ever.

So in the meantime why not focus no making money with the system that is in place? As opposed to 'sitting it out' for years on end

Reality from what form of thinking? Austrian ECONOMICS explains reality as it is now. It explicitly states the results of public policy. If you implement price controls, what will happen. If you give the government control of the printing presses, if interest rates are artificially lower than the market level, etc etc.

As far as your last concern, yes - and my point is Austrian Economics gives you a better way of doing it. I personally have chosen to sit it out, but that doesn't mean anyone else is. I'm a student, none of the big investment fund managers who adhere to the school are, or those wealthy enough with their own capital are. Some like Rogers are focusing on China and India, also commodities extensively. Others are gold stocks, gold itself, silver. Mining stocks etc. Others do value investing, looking for overlooked good value businesses to invest in.

All I'm saying is a fundamental understanding of Austrian economics would HELP a lot of people here make BETTER decisions, because they understand where the market is potentially going - economic law, is like gravity as per the example I gave earlier.

I thought there would be folks here susceptible and open to the benefits, I guess not... Fine, your loss.

 

[MRC & Co]

Always amused by the pipsqueaks on forums who are somehow "more in the know" than guys like Buffet and Soros, yet I seriously doubt they'll ever have the same clout or success.

The Guru oscillator is spiking again.

Yes and the ones like this idiot, who obviously is completely oblivious to a guy like Soros and his strategies.

He lost billions in the Russian crisis, has lost hundreds of millions on Lehman or on the 87 crash and how about the tech boom, yet, is still the most successful? Just LOL.

Then quotes the book review from a guy who could be an anybody and obviously didn't understand the book. How about you quote the reponse to the book of Paul Tudor Jones? I guess, none of these billionaire traders are anything close to the Noble Prize Austrians (see Black and Scholes and their nobility and investment record ). Soros admits he isn't all knowing and makes plenty of mistakes, because he is a TRADER, not a theorist. Every trader looses and gets it wrong plenty of times. Exactly why trading is not a science, there is no fact. Yet apparently to this guy it is a science, because he can predict it with such perfection.

I won't even both replying to the rest of that BS from a guy with more quotes than I made in my entire years at University but little to no substance and a whole heap of misinformation.

Yes, the guru oscillator is spiking again and on that note, I am out of here. To be honest, I just can't be bothered anymore with the amount of junk filling this place upto the rafters.

 

[MRC & Co]

Soros had no idea it was coming, because he doesn't understand the Austrian Theory of the Business Cycle... which is why what he is calling for to solve the crisis is going to make it all so much worse. He's lost BILLIONS this year, and for good reason.

.

Now who is shifting the goalposts, student?

 

[Green08]

I don't consider myself an expert, yet.

Experts - with a real need to learn and humility - need TIME - years, in their chosen profession unless your a gifted bloody genius with an IQ over 200.

Even "experts" stuff it up completely.

Knowledge and knowledge that you don't agree with so you can make critical analysis.

Victories and losses - so you learn Techa has seen the barrel bottom and the clouds

Ability to move with new scenarios and information.

Conza - don't shoot yourself in the foot. Most of these boys / ladies are gifted and knowledgeable in what they do - regardless of style. They make money - and a lot of it in some cases.

 

[Trembling Hand]

Old doesn't make it WRONG. Now does it?

I didn't say that FGS!! I said that you are not telling us anything we haven't heard before.

Theory? I love it how there are those who berate "theory", as having nothing to do with reality. No - your theory sucks if it has nothing to do with reality. There is no distinction.

Again I didn't say that theory doesn't have anything to do with reality.

Please listen.

What I am saying is you cannot name billion dollar traders and put yourself in the same "school".
You are just an unproven mug who thinks he knows enough to lecture people like myself who take $$ out of the system daily which you think you are an expert on. But you are empty.