China's Economy

[Gunnerguy]

My time in Vietnam 3 years ago was the same. Yes a much smaller population (80m) but the population (man in the street) want all the western ‘stuff’. Millions of motorcycles waiting to replaced by small (EV?) cars over the next 10 years. There still remain HUGE growth in the Chinese economy and so hope Australia plays it diplomatically to keep the trade going.
Gunnerguy.

 

[qldfrog]

Just a though:
There are people comparing past China and current India, with the hope that the Chinese economic miracle would be reproduced in India, and so giving Australia another boost with mineral demand.
Looking at the situation in india now will confirm my doubts on this model.
Add to this the average Chinese view of people based on skin colour, and i doubt India will even be used for cheap manufacturing by Chinese companies, which prefer Laos or Vietnam .
To summarise: India will be no part in Chinese economy,neither as collaborator or competition.

 

[pozindustrial]

In 2017 I attended a talk by Peter Kenny of Colmar Brunton who are market research advisors to governments and global companies. He founded the group in Melbourne 25 years before. Their forecasting was that in the next 20+ years the four super power economies would be China or India first and second, USA third and Indonesia fourth.
Their predictions were that Australia was entering a new phase from the "Conformity" era 2012 to 2016 which had similar values to 1940's and 1950's into the "Rebellion" phase which could last until 2030 which will have values similar to 1960s to 1970s.
The US he indicated was probably 10 years ahead of us. Predictions included the election of Donald Trump, a corresponding increase in their economy, a coming world problem such as a pandemic, border closures which had begun in 2017 and would include intellectual borders, not just physical.
They use their powers of prediction to advise global companies who wish to launch products so that those companies could align their products with either the current sentiment or the coming sentiment depending on the life cycle of the product and whether it would be more profitable currently or at a future time, and so that they could launch now or hold off till later or market in one way now and another variation later.
Some of you might break this vague summary down in points and argue about them, but I thought the super power predictions were of interest here.

 

[qldfrog]

I believe Indonesia is missing from the narrative in Australia: a big loss as we could have leverage this for manufacturing instead of sending everything inc the know how to China

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/china-paper-dragon/618778/

I would recommend the above article from David Frum an Atlantic contributor.

It offers a contrarian view on China's continuing rise economically and strategically quoting extensively from a book by Michael Beckley.

Michael Beckley published a richly detailed study of Chinese military and economic weaknesses. The book is titled Unrivaled: Why America Will Remain the World’s Sole Superpower.

gg

 

[qldfrog]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/china-paper-dragon/618778/

I would recommend the above article from David Frum an Atlantic contributor.

It offers a contrarian view on China's continuing rise economically and strategically quoting extensively from a book by Michael Beckley.



gg

I will find it hard to believe after living in China and visiting recently a New York which has lost the vibrancy it had in 30y ago.but just hope you are right.

 

[rederob]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/china-paper-dragon/618778/

I would recommend the above article from David Frum an Atlantic contributor.

It offers a contrarian view on China's continuing rise economically and strategically quoting extensively from a book by Michael Beckley.



gg

You should present some themes to show why it is credible as Beckley's case by way of example seems a tad predicated on disbelieving anything China presents.
We in the west spent years disparaging Chinese GDP data because it clearly was way too high! Now that they are back into single digits their same metrics are now credible?
Beckley has an overriding belief in his concept of "power" which he defines as being able to get anything you want. My personal belief is that it is actually about stopping others being able to get what they want. That's why the USA has been waging a trade war and banning Chinese companies from using equipment that contains prescribed technologies. America has successfully spent over 60 years keeping Cuba a 3rd world country. However, China is already a powerhouse in many fields - space and AI come to mind - and the idea that America can suppress China's continued advance is likely to have a short time span.

 

[finicky]

Cuba did everything possible to remain 3rd world country all on its own, eg forcing its theretofore self sufficient peasant agrarian populace into foreign exchange earning commodity crops. Why wouldn't America ban commerce with an illegimate bloody communist dictatorship that invited USSR missiles in and brought the world to the brink of another war? Pity they weren't able to off Fidel.

 

[sptrawler]

Just a though:
There are people comparing past China and current India, with the hope that the Chinese economic miracle would be reproduced in India, and so giving Australia another boost with mineral demand.
Looking at the situation in india now will confirm my doubts on this model.
Add to this the average Chinese view of people based on skin colour, and i doubt India will even be used for cheap manufacturing by Chinese companies, which prefer Laos or Vietnam .
To summarise: India will be no part in Chinese economy,neither as collaborator or competition.

The other problem with India is the caste system, it wont be broken down any time soon and in a lot of ways holds back the countries potential.

What is India's caste system?

India's complex caste system is among the world's oldest forms of surviving social stratification.

www.bbc.com

 

[qldfrog]

The other problem with India is the caste system, it wont be broken down any time soon and in a lot of ways holds back the countries potential.

What is India's caste system?

India's complex caste system is among the world's oldest forms of surviving social stratification.

www.bbc.com

And administration nightmare: as bad as France...

 

[sptrawler]

I believe Indonesia is missing from the narrative in Australia: a big loss as we could have leverage this for manufacturing instead of sending everything inc the know how to China

The problem with that is, when Australia removed the tariffs which protected onshore production, in the mid 1980's to mid 1990's.
Australian companies looked overseas, China gave all the incentives, basically agreed to make the product for nothing, so the companies did what was best for the companies.
Then the remaining companies, now had to compete with the Australian company that was getting their product made for nothing in China, so guess what they did? This was all brought about to make Australian manufacturing more efficient, or go broke, just another brain fart.

 

[sptrawler]

You should present some themes to show why it is credible as Beckley's case by way of example seems a tad predicated on disbelieving anything China presents.
We in the west spent years disparaging Chinese GDP data because it clearly was way too high! Now that they are back into single digits their same metrics are now credible?
Beckley has an overriding belief in his concept of "power" which he defines as being able to get anything you want. My personal belief is that it is actually about stopping others being able to get what they want. That's why the USA has been waging a trade war and banning Chinese companies from using equipment that contains prescribed technologies. America has successfully spent over 60 years keeping Cuba a 3rd world country. However, China is already a powerhouse in many fields - space and AI come to mind - and the idea that America can suppress China's continued advance is likely to have a short time span.

All very true, but that doesn't mean that because China has brought the Country from a very low standard of living to a first world country, they should be accepted as the way forward the World should take.
Most of China's growth, has been at the cost of the middle class workers in places like the U.S and to a lesser degree Australia, where their jobs have been outsourced to China.
That doesn't mean China has done well, it means the West has been benevolent, but as usual welfare becomes an entitlement.
Which goes back to the old saying never shall a good deed go unpunished, yes the west has benefited from cheap Chinese production, but as you say the West could have left China like Cuba.
Now China is like the U.S, is it going to be as benevolent and outsource some of its manufacturing to poorer countries, time will tell.

 

[Garpal Gumnut]

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/05/china-paper-dragon/618778/

I would recommend the above article from David Frum an Atlantic contributor.

It offers a contrarian view on China's continuing rise economically and strategically quoting extensively from a book by Michael Beckley.



gg

Unfortunately I am only interested in ideas, making money and the continuance of the Gumnut genes, so I will not get in to any arguments on the politics contained in some of the replies to my post. I just wished to share it on the China : Economics thread.

I have only met Mainland Chinese people in Australia from the monied or educated classes, apart from some sailors in the pub, pre-Covid, so it is interesting to get a contrary view on the present demographics and state of China.

I must admit I didn't realise their society was so structured and limited in opportunity. Very much like Western society really but to a greater degree if you believe this article.

That is all I will say. Except that Chinese sailors drink heaps of Guinness, their preferred tipple until whisky time, and educated and rich Chinese do not.

gg

 

[rederob]

All very true, but that doesn't mean that because China has brought the Country from a very low standard of living to a first world country, they should be accepted as the way forward the World should take.

Aside from some significant prosperity and modernisation centred around major cities, China remains very much a work in progress. I was not aware anyone would think of China as model for their country except perhaps in regard to the rigour they put into their 5-year plans from inception to execution.

Most of China's growth, has been at the cost of the middle class workers in places like the U.S and to a lesser degree Australia, where their jobs have been outsourced to China.

I suspect it's more to do with wholesale replacement at all levels, but mostly at the lesser skilled levels given very low wages at the face of production. Many US companies remain headquartered in the USA with management, design and distribution responsibilities, but little to no production. Arlec would be an example of an Australian company that did similar.

Now China is like the U.S, is it going to be as benevolent and outsource some of its manufacturing to poorer countries, time will tell.

When in was China in 2019 A German guy I met there (working for VW) was telling me how a number of their product lines were too expensive to produce in China and were instead being made elsewhere in SE Asia. That's capitalism at its peak.

 

[qldfrog]

And administration nightmare: as bad as France...

But let's go back to china, just wanted to add some comparison as this subject often pops up.

Unfortunately I am only interested in ideas, making money and the continuance of the Gumnut genes, so I will not get in to any arguments on the politics contained in some of the replies to my post. I just wished to share it on the China : Economics thread.

I have only met Mainland Chinese people in Australia from the monied or educated classes, apart from some sailors in the pub, pre-Covid, so it is interesting to get a contrary view on the present demographics and state of China.

I must admit I didn't realise their society was so structured and limited in opportunity. Very much like Western society really but to a greater degree if you believe this article.

That is all I will say. Except that Chinese sailors drink heaps of Guinness, their preferred tipple until whisky time, and educated and rich Chinese do not.

gg

I quickly had a read at the article, and I believe it is just an american dream wish..some bases for some raised issues, but honestly the points looked 20y old, and now mostly proven wrong, the author emphasis on the cost of keeping surveillance on the people -> he has no clue on the automatisation of that side..less cops in the streets than in the US, no 40m of Americans on food stamps equivalent: a one race unity instead of a rainbowinner fighting. In his dreams only...

 

[basilio]

I thought this was a critical comment from post 237 that SP put up yesterday. Looks like we all owe Kevin Rudd a big vote of thanks!!

The Chinese government was thwarted by the Rudd government in its attempt to have Chinalco take over Rio Tinto, which it thought would give it the ability to keep a lid on iron ore prices.

No end in sight for China’s dependence on Australian iron ore | The Strategist

China’s steel industry is blaming the concentrated ownership of Australia’s iron ore mines for the soaring ore price and is calling for Chinese government intervention. ‘We believe that the supply side is highly concentrated and ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

Chinalco's 'great regret' at Rio deal collapse

Chinalco has expressed its disappointment at Rio Tinto's decision to scrap a $24.3b deal.

www.abc.net.au

 

[sptrawler]

I thought this was a critical comment from post 237 that SP put up yesterday. Looks like we all owe Kevin Rudd a big vote of thanks!!

The Chinese government was thwarted by the Rudd government in its attempt to have Chinalco take over Rio Tinto, which it thought would give it the ability to keep a lid on iron ore prices.

No end in sight for China’s dependence on Australian iron ore | The Strategist

China’s steel industry is blaming the concentrated ownership of Australia’s iron ore mines for the soaring ore price and is calling for Chinese government intervention. ‘We believe that the supply side is highly concentrated and ...

www.aspistrategist.org.au

Chinalco's 'great regret' at Rio deal collapse

Chinalco has expressed its disappointment at Rio Tinto's decision to scrap a $24.3b deal.

www.abc.net.au

Interesting how we see that as in the countries best interest, but now have concerns when the government want to block some belt and road initiatives, which are seen as inflaming tensions with China.
We are a weird lot, arent we.

 

[Dona Ferentes]

In a sign of Australia’s growing status as a global clean energy superpower, the International Energy Agency identified it alongside China and the Democratic Republic of Congo as having a near stranglehold on key metals required for electric cars, wind turbines and clean energy grids.

 

[Humid]

Interesting how we see that as in the countries best interest, but now have concerns when the government want to block some belt and road initiatives, which are seen as inflaming tensions with China.

We are a weird lot, arent we.

Dont forget the Port of Darwin

 

[over9k]

India's getting smashed by the virus at the moment:



But don't go thinking that china's a long term bet. Its day in the sun is almost over.