Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Buying the Dip on ASX

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frugal.rock said:
5 day results after dip buying.
Of course, after dip buying there has to be; either some selling or some holding.
Consideration of this may be in order today.
I hope others have had a few "chicken dinners" lately!?

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I have a question for you FR, which realm do you play in?
just XAO shares, leveraged ETF, US market, futures, commodities?
the reason i ask is I noticed in the past some of your portfolio daily jumps higher than the highest of the non micro ASX share jumps; which can happen with leverage (direct or via ETF, funds, or futures, options etc..
Note that I am in no way doubting of the truth of your statements/chart let this be clear.
And you are nowhere near my ignore zone ;-)
 
Market line on charts is XJO
Trading realm is majority XSO, mainly in XMM, but a little here and there in XKO.
Long only, no leverage. FPO, ETF's, some ADR & CDI. (Only leverage is the occasional as supplied by the product Eg; BBUS, BBOZ etc and not higher than 3% to my knowledge)

Opportunistic, largely chart based trading mostly, but specifically for XSO stocks, FA really helps increase % of wins.

Eg; BEN in the last 2 weeks. Was easily forseeable of a rise of 10% in 4~6 weeks.
I took near 10% in a week or so, and that even missed the effect of BIQ profits/divvy pulling up all the banks there for a few days.

Opportunities like above only come along every so often, so it's constant "eyes on the fries" to find these "bottom feeder" opportunities.

Recently have been dabbling on US market, but results of that are not shown. Don't like it though. My understanding isn't great of how there market operates and I have grave currency concerns...??
 
frugal.rock said:
Market line on charts is XJO
Trading realm is majority XSO, mainly in XMM, but a little here and there in XKO.
Long only, no leverage. FPO, ETF's, some ADR & CDI. (Only leverage is the occasional as supplied by the product Eg; BBUS, BBOZ etc and not higher than 3% to my knowledge)

Opportunistic, largely chart based trading mostly, but specifically for XSO stocks, FA really helps increase % of wins.

Eg; BEN in the last 2 weeks. Was easily forseeable of a rise of 10% in 4~6 weeks.
I took near 10% in a week or so, and that even missed the effect of BIQ profits/divvy pulling up all the banks there for a few days.

Opportunities like above only come along every so often, so it's constant "eyes on the fries" to find these "bottom feeder" opportunities.

Recently have been dabbling on US market, but results of that are not shown. Don't like it though. My understanding isn't great of how there market operates and I have grave currency concerns...??
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your detailed answer much appreciated.Thanks and i am sure i am not the only one who was interested :xyxthumbs
 
It would appear that yesterday's trading in the US has triggered "something" or more to the point, the inverse of that, something has "triggered".
I expect a broader market run up of around ~10+% over the next week to 3 weeks. Some things seem like they will peak in a week, others in 3 weeks. Cyclical.
Prediction based on a "bunch of stuff".
Just thought I'd throw that out there.

This is just me thinking out loud.
If I'm wrong, it's more salt in the wounds received from not being able to trade full time recently due to commitments.
A bit of egg on face also...??

If it turns out I'm right, it's cheese, crackers and caviar with dip for me.
 
frugal.rock said:
It would appear that yesterday's trading in the US has triggered "something" or more to the point, the inverse of that, something has "triggered".
I expect a broader market run up of around ~10+% over the next week to 3 weeks. Some things seem like they will peak in a week, others in 3 weeks. Cyclical.
Prediction based on a "bunch of stuff".
Just thought I'd throw that out there.

This is just me thinking out loud.
If I'm wrong, it's more salt in the wounds received from not being able to trade full time recently due to commitments.
A bit of egg on face also...??

If it turns out I'm right, it's cheese, crackers and caviar with dip for me.
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but was that something real ( smart investment ) or some trick by a plunge protection team

Greg Mannarino suggests it was a Fed 'jaw-bone trick ' to lift the market without actually easing the hikes ( yet ) ( maybe spiced up with some futures buying )

take care
 
Gretsch said:
And there lies the question.
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Well should we care?
As @frugal.rock mentioned, it will probably trigger a rebound, so all in for a week or so but with ultra tight exit..
I do not play these.
one of my systems out of 3 restarted last week and will remain invested but roughly 25%, the others in cash and discretionary will try to ride that bouncing dead cat.. let's see how it works
 
qldfrog said:
so all in for a week or so but with ultra tight exit..
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Yeah, nah. About that.
I don't think anyone should be making trading or investment decisions from my guestimate assertions.

FWIW, I didn't base anything from others opinions, was all just chart stuff.

The flip side is, it was a possible run for cover buy up. Silver big up, gold good chunk up, Yen good chunk up. Even copper, "a poor man's silver" was up a chunk.
Rising tide floating all but still perhaps a disguise. Time will tell all.
 
frugal.rock said:
Yeah, nah. About that.
I don't think anyone should be making trading or investment decisions from my guestimate assertions.

FWIW, I didn't base anything from others opinions, was all just chart stuff.

The flip side is, it was a possible run for cover buy up. Silver big up, gold good chunk up, Yen good chunk up. Even copper, "a poor man's silver" was up a chunk.
Rising tide floating all but still perhaps a disguise. Time will tell all.
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Don't worry, not following your guesstimate, but plenty are eager to reinvest and get a bargain
I would not consider a buy now a long term bargain buy, just rebound.
Systems still mostly out, will try to catch a few rises.
But indeed, please do not follow mine, or FR or others as oracle readings.
The feds might fail to restore temporary confidence, a nuke might blow in ukraine, or even a terrorist attack might happen..these islamists are getting increasingly frustrated by the lack of attention lately....
Ukraine, taiwan, what about my infidels slicing?
 
qldfrog said:
Well should we care?
As @frugal.rock mentioned, it will probably trigger a rebound, so all in for a week or so but with ultra tight exit..
I do not play these.
one of my systems out of 3 restarted last week and will remain invested but roughly 25%, the others in cash and discretionary will try to ride that bouncing dead cat.. let's see how it works
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kind of , not being a trader , i only need the market to move one way ( in any particular month ) , and work out how i can exploit that move ( if lower maybe there is something to buy , if higher maybe something i should reduce )

however real or fake is a problem , i might be looking at that move from the wrong angle ( say watching commodity stocks when i should be watching financial stocks for the opposite move )

good luck everyone
 
FWIW my actively traded account was down to 3% in shares (97% cash) a few weeks ago but is now back up to 58% in shares. Note that's for my actively traded account only.

There's zero subjectivity in the trading method. It's 100% based on maths which is derived from market data and the buying started on 10 October (based on signal from the previous Friday) and has kept going.

That's not to say it's right and will make a profit but I've been putting money into the market yes. :2twocents
 
Smurf1976 said:
FWIW my actively traded account was down to 3% in shares (97% cash) a few weeks ago but is now back up to 58% in shares. Note that's for my actively traded account only.

There's zero subjectivity in the trading method. It's 100% based on maths which is derived from market data and the buying started on 10 October (based on signal from the previous Friday) and has kept going.

That's not to say it's right and will make a profit but I've been putting money into the market yes. :2twocents
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For specifically trading, I also run 2 different systems based on calculated numbers from market data. One is mathematical the other is based on arithmetic. As I'm sure you will appreciate, there is a significant difference between the two.

For me the issue is starting point of calculation (which is the same as an entry point) for rebalancing and of course what specific market and instrument is being traded.

Since we are talking stocks (individual) on this thread, my approach would be mathematical. Currently I sit at 40% exposure long (a little lower than you in a trading account). However my entry point was probably 10 days ago.

Interesting.

jog on
duc
 
ASX200 has taken Wall Street's cue from Friday and is up just around 2% at around lunchtime. However, it the resistance that formed above 6800 seems like it wants to put up a tough fight, with the index having pared some of its gains just below the October high.

All trading carries risk, but it will be interesting to see how sentiment develops over the coming days, and whether the ASX can break above its recent multi-week range.
 
qldfrog said:
indeed this is the question, where will the lead come from:from the plunging Chinese index or bouncing US?
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Well, currently seems like the free fall in Chinese equities is dragging other markets lower. FTSE has seen a sharp reversal lower after retesting 7000, and US futures have also turned negative.

Will be interesting to see if this move holds when Wall Street later tonight.
 
CityIndex said:
Well, currently seems like the free fall in Chinese equities is dragging other markets lower. FTSE has seen a sharp reversal lower after retesting 7000, and US futures have also turned negative.

Will be interesting to see if this move holds when Wall Street later tonight.
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that isn't a totally bad thing for me , i am trying to increase exposure to Asia ( ex Japan ) and am doing that via selected ETFs and LICs , which are dipping a bit currently ( some are resisting my top-up targets , but some are dancing around attractively )

but YES i am expecting a prolonged period of discomfort , until solid financial recoveries return ( without the reliance on bail-outs )
 
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