Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Buying the Dip on ASX

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frugal.rock said:
Seemed to me a slight change in sentiment yesterday and today.
Some risk coming back on?
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Too many upcoming risks:
  • US PPI tonight
  • US CPI tomorrow
  • BoE ends gilt buy backs on Friday
  • US earnings starting on Friday with several companies issuing warnings of earning downgrades
  • CCP National congress over the weekend
  • Russia ramping up attacks on Ukraine, reportedly targeting energy infrastructure
 
Bought a little more yesterday.

Inflation numbers to me indicate a possible top of inflation is very near. With data lag, we may even be over the hump...? Prices at supermarket's have settled, if that's any indication.
The pace of rising has certainly subsided and the market seems to have grasped that and clung on, for dear life it seems.

Interesting day ahead. ?
 
frugal.rock said:
Bought a little more yesterday.

Inflation numbers to me indicate a possible top of inflation is very near. With data lag, we may even be over the hump...? Prices at supermarket's have settled, if that's any indication.
The pace of rising has certainly subsided and the market seems to have grasped that and clung on, for dear life it seems.

Interesting day ahead. ?
Click to expand...

Mr FR,

Screen Shot 2022-10-14 at 12.28.09 PM.png

Inflation is nowhere near peaking. With economic contraction in Europe, less manufacturing means less goods, means higher prices (reduced supply into static or even falling demand). Supply chains are collapsing (again).

This is most likely shorts taking profits. When you get the news you were looking for, you take profits.

jog on
duc
 
ducati916 said:
Mr FR,

View attachment 148023

Inflation is nowhere near peaking. With economic contraction in Europe, less manufacturing means less goods, means higher prices (reduced supply into static or even falling demand). Supply chains are collapsing (again).

This is most likely shorts taking profits. When you get the news you were looking for, you take profits.

jog on
duc
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i see what you are saying and would agree if we had free markets , however i suspect a wave of price fixing ( or hidden subsidies ) of epic proportions is coming , will such market intervention strategies prevail ... or will supply remain stunted for a long duration ( between bankrupted manufacturers and reduced capital investment in productive improvements )

i think we are heading into a long ( policy created ) depression or maybe even a major societal collapse

cheers
 
The early rally on the ASX200 run into selling pressure at the downward slopping resistance coming from the highs in August.

While it will be interesting to see if it can break higher this afternoon, price action on Wall Street tonight will likely determine whether the Aussie market targets a higher high in the coming days, or continues this trajectory lower. XJO_2022-10-14_11-42-07.png
 
ducati916 said:
Inflation is nowhere near peaking. With economic contraction in Europe, less manufacturing means less goods, means higher prices (reduced supply into static or even falling demand). Supply chains are collapsing (again).
Click to expand...
It's all a bit subjective duc, but haven't we been annoyed that the tail wags the dog?
EU is now back in its box.
However, I will keep an eye on Aldi for signs of shortage...
?
 
I feel the money flowing back to AUD soon.
USD way overbought... some will find it's way back to the EU & Yen, but we're odds on favourites ATM IMO ?
 
After a strong rejection from trendline resistance, it will be interesting to see if the ASX200 manages to find support above last week's lows right around 6630.

All trading carries risk, and price action is likely to continue tracking Wall Street over the coming days, but this could determine whether we see another retest of the June lows, or if the market can break the downtrend stemming from its highs in August.
 
frugal.rock said:
I feel the money flowing back to AUD soon.
USD way overbought... some will find it's way back to the EU & Yen, but we're odds on favourites ATM IMO ?
Click to expand...
Fed has been copping flack for the over the high dollar from several commentators. Realistically, it's probably a driving force for inflation in many countries, so if inflation is truly a global problem and they're planning a global solution then they will have to depreciate
 
waterbottle said:
Fed has been copping flack for the over the high dollar from several commentators. Realistically, it's probably a driving force for inflation in many countries, so if inflation is truly a global problem and they're planning a global solution then they will have to depreciate
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all that means is several major currencies are further down the sewerage pipe than the US Dollar ( these modern polymer notes aren't even useful when shredded for fertilizer )
 
waterbottle said:
Fed has been copping flack for the over the high dollar from several commentators. Realistically, it's probably a driving force for inflation in many countries, so if inflation is truly a global problem and they're planning a global solution then they will have to depreciate
Click to expand...
Strong USD will definitely increase the inflation problem in other countries. Unfortunately, the Fed's priority is American price stability, and judging by their own commentary, they will likely continue to hiking rates until this is achieved.

However, if the USD's strength begins to significantly hinder their own economy in the way of declining exports, especially from the retail side of things, perhaps the Fed may be inclined to step in and do something to bring the greenback down.
 
divs4ever said:
all that means is several major currencies are further down the sewerage pipe than the US Dollar ( these modern polymer notes aren't even useful when shredded for fertilizer )
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You could shred them up for horse arena surfaces, rather than the polyester they are using at the moment.

( And probably cheaper to be honest :laugh: )
 
Green bars aplenty today.
When it's risk on for BNPL stocks, I think we may have a rally on our hands.?
However, beware the sawtooth whipsaw. If you're not comfortable trading, keep the bench warm, pace the sidelines.
It's not the time to be indecisive or dilly dally around.
A contrarian trade ATM is nickel.
Personally, I'm eying MCR, it's ripe.

Screenshot_20221018-204336-807.png
 
The ASX200 is adding to yesterday's break of the downtrend resistance, and after a couple of tests today, it has finally broken above the weekly R1 pivot around 6800.

All trading carries risk, but holding this level into the close may allow the index to target a new high for the month, and potentially extend this rebound if overseas sentiment also continues rises.
 
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