Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Buying the Dip on ASX

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divs4ever said:
i think to idea is you sell in the top half of the rally as well ( as buying the dip )

looks like an interesting month in progress ( just when things couldn't be more bizarre , somehow they manage it )
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yes, but ... it was fairly predictable that October would be a wild month.

This is what was posted on this thread:
KevinBB said:
The only positive thing I can see is that on a long term basis (16 years) October is quite a volatile month with a range from High to Low of about 7.5%, the second most volatile month of the year, second only to April. Hang on to your hats for a wild October ride.
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We have to embrace October's volatility, just accept that it will happen, and hang on for dear life.

KH
 
KevinBB said:
yes, but ... it was fairly predictable that October would be a wild month.

This is what was posted on this thread:


We have to embrace October's volatility, just accept that it will happen, and hang on for dear life.

KH
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or ... exploit it ( even when not a trader ) the part i hated about March 2020 was there was too many places to look ( given i had some cash to splash , at the time )

now this month so far has been funky , sure , but it has also provided a couple of tasty nibbles

actually a trader buddy just told me if the market continues to go higher for the next two days dump ( sell ) everything

now i am always on the lookout for a sensible reduction opportunity ( but i don't think i will be off-loading everything , but i have my eye on a few to trim )
 
was hoping to trim my coal stocks but moved away from the target range , today

am looking for some extras in the REITs , but today was not my day for that ( so far )

although maybe some SGP in the after-market
 
divs4ever said:
now this month so far has been funky , sure , but it has also provided a couple of tasty nibbles
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.... and the month isn't even 6 days old! Plenty more to go yet. Now, whether it is up or down I don't know, but it will go somewhere. And fast.

The reason for saying that I feel investors (generally) are scared at the moment. There is too much going on in the world, everything from wars, to very bad politics, to rising interest rates, for the market to be stable. Also, we are well off highs, especially in the US market, so there will be plenty of bargain hunters around should more volatility-causing news hit.

divs4ever said:
actually a trader buddy just told me if the market continues to go higher for the next two days dump ( sell ) everything
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Kind of agree, but we all have to remember the most relevant saying in share market finance, and that is:

you have to be in it to win it​

By dumping everything you have no chance to win, but by holding some, there is a chance of doing rather well. In the past few days I've gone to about 50% cash (in the Aussie broker account), swapped some IOZ for the banks (good move), and sold some IOZ without replacing them (a rediculously bad move). At least I'm still in there.

KH
 
KevinBB said:
.... and the month isn't even 6 days old! Plenty more to go yet. Now, whether it is up or down I don't know, but it will go somewhere. And fast.

The reason for saying that I feel investors (generally) are scared at the moment. There is too much going on in the world, everything from wars, to very bad politics, to rising interest rates, for the market to be stable. Also, we are well off highs, especially in the US market, so there will be plenty of bargain hunters around should more volatility-causing news hit.


Kind of agree, but we all have to remember the most relevant saying in share market finance, and that is:

you have to be in it to win it​

By dumping everything you have no chance to win, but by holding some, there is a chance of doing rather well. In the past few days I've gone to about 50% cash (in the Aussie broker account), swapped some IOZ for the banks (good move), and sold some IOZ without replacing them (a rediculously bad move). At least I'm still in there.

KH
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in SOME holdings i am in a ridiculously good position ( that i might not ever get again , assuming the market doesn't go to zero and below ) so i would be adverse to offloading completely ( and some of those are 'free-carried ' to boot .. so 100% profit running )

now IF i am mostly in cash ( after a sell-down ) where do i put it ?? bonds are liquid but currently dangerous , in the bank maybe liquid and maybe not in extreme stress .. and March 2020 highlighted a flaw for me .. too many places to watch , sure i did well .. but could i have done better ??

now technically i could try the inverse ETFs again ( so when i sell them the credit goes directly into the trading account ) but that will probably need razor -sharp reactions say buy tomorrow and place the sell orders straight into the market ( at a set price ) if GEAR can rise 10% in a day BBOZ can do that also on a opposite swing ( Commsec mightn't be too cool with that with a basic no frills account )
 
@galumay Nice website with some spectacular results over 20+yrs. Worth reviewing by any prospective value investor. Even this old chart based price action trader can respect the job done by the author. In fact I'd need to lift my game considerably to match those results.
 
galumay said:
I am not a market timer, so no interest in buying 'dips', but for those who play the game, this may be relevant to you.

Portfolio Review – October 2022 – Mispriced Markets

mispricedmarkets.com mispricedmarkets.com

In particular I found the visual representation very powerful.
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depends on how well you need to time ( the market ) i rarely pick a bottom or top ( and that is just sheer luck when i do ) but , say , a 10% discount on what you think is a 'fair price ' is nice ( and say, 10% over what you consider a generous price when selling can be nice ) , this can be done without a twenty year career in studying charts .

you might argue long term they hardly make a difference , but then i would point to the magic of compounding where that extra profit can be deployed elsewhere ( if it didn't buy extra of the original cheap stock ) and i often participate in the DRP where every stock help helps grow the position over time
 
galumay said:
Like I said, I am not a market timer.
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There's some pretty nice discount prices out there right now.

When I shop at the supermarket, I look at thing's that are marked down, short expiry dates etc.
A lot of the time, I don't want the product at all, so I don't buy.
If I sometimes would buy the product, but don't need or want it then, I might buy it anyway and put it in the freezer for another day, purely because it's a bargain.

I bought some more stocks today. ?
 
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