Australian (ASX) Stock Market Forum

Buying the Dip on ASX

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A big disadvantage for us folks living down under is the strength of the US dollar (or is it the weakness in the Aussie dollar) when buying US ETFs. ASX listed US Index ETFs have barely dipped while the actual indices such as the NASDAQ or SP500 have 20% falls. Here's the culprit:

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aus_trader said:
A big disadvantage for us folks living down under is the strength of the US dollar (or is it the weakness in the Aussie dollar) when buying US ETFs. ASX listed US Index ETFs have barely dipped while the actual indices such as the NASDAQ or SP500 have 20% falls. Here's the culprit:

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is that a problem if we export more , MANUFACTURE more , and import less ( i suspect not )
 
CityIndex said:
Will be interesting to see if this move holds when Wall Street later tonight.
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US markets ended up putting in a strong rally overnight, and the ASX200 seems to be continuing to benefit from this as it is retesting a break above this month’s range again today.

Same can’t be said for the Aussie Dollar though, which unsurprisingly felt the weight of the negative sentiment coming out from Chinese markets.

All trading carries risk, and it will be interesting to see what impact tomorrow’s Q3 inflation figures have on local assets.
 
divs4ever said:
is that a problem if we export more , MANUFACTURE more , and import less ( i suspect not )
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The problem is we don't really manufacture any more as we've exported that to Asia. All we do is dig stuff out of the ground to sell, maybe that will benefit in terms of exports.

On the contrary a weak AUD means we'll pay higher for imports. Same goes for buying US equities/ETFs unfortunately, as I mentioned.
 
aus_trader said:
The problem is we don't really manufacture any more as we've exported that to Asia. All we do is dig stuff out of the ground to sell, maybe that will benefit in terms of exports.

On the contrary a weak AUD means we'll pay higher for imports. Same goes for buying US equities/ETFs unfortunately, as I mentioned.
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it may shock members to know i am actually an optimist , true i have been punched by reality many times ,

i see the opportunity but is Australia too slow to grab it

i also so note a whinging campaign about international companies digging up the dirt we are too apathetic to dig up ourselves ( in many cases )
 
CityIndex said:
US markets ended up putting in a strong rally overnight, and the ASX200 seems to be continuing to benefit...
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Possibly, but the problem with making generalised observations is that current markets are all over the place.

Last night USA was strong, Dow surged 800 pts in a 'broad rally' and Dow +2.6%, S&P +2.5%, Nasdaq +2.9%, but looking at components, we've had Meta take a haircut, Amazon and Microsoft ditto over the last week. What's it based on? Earnings season and good companies holding up, consumer spending not yet dropping off ... but growth stocks, usually tech, being hit as interest rates rise; relative valuations are still high, and earnings expectations for them are likely to still come down, still.

In Australia, Materials and mining stocks are getting hammered with iron ore down again, some 0.8% to $US81.85 a tonne. Spot gold in NY down 1.1% to $US1644.86 /oz. Lithium offering hope, though. Banks are reporting and look to hold recent rally.

All the hope of any rally seems to be based on the current FED, RBA, in fact most Central Banks, doing a pivot, or a pause, in the interest rate rises. And then do we worry if they went too far if/ when the pain pushes through and the economy slows. AUD down 0.6% to 64.11 US cents but off recent lows.

So, to me, a specific stock situation. Indexes can inform sentiment but other factors will decide stock investment outcomes.
 
Dona Ferentes said:
Possibly, but the problem with making generalised observations is that current markets are all over the place.

Last night USA was strong, Dow surged 800 pts in a 'broad rally' and Dow +2.6%, S&P +2.5%, Nasdaq +2.9%, but looking at components, we've had Meta take a haircut, Amazon and Microsoft ditto over the last week. What's it based on? Earnings season and good companies holding up, consumer spending not yet dropping off ... but growth stocks, usually tech, being hit as interest rates rise; relative valuations are still high, and earnings expectations for them are likely to still come down, still.

In Australia, Materials and mining stocks are getting hammered with iron ore down again, some 0.8% to $US81.85 a tonne. Spot gold in NY down 1.1% to $US1644.86 /oz. Lithium offering hope, though. Banks are reporting and look to hold recent rally.

All the hope of any rally seems to be based on the current FED, RBA, in fact most Central Banks, doing a pivot, or a pause, in the interest rate rises. And then do we worry if they went too far if/ when the pain pushes through and the economy slows. AUD down 0.6% to 64.11 US cents but off recent lows.

So, to me, a specific stock situation. Indexes can inform sentiment but other factors will decide stock investment outcomes.
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Very good observations :xyxthumbs

In fact, with Amazon, Microsoft and Meta/Facebook taking big hits, it's hard to configure how the indices are holding up so well. I can provide a clue however, it's that Forrest Gump's fruit company single handedly holding the NASDAQ and SP500 up...

 
frugal.rock said:
I expect a broader market run up of around ~10+% over the next week to 3 weeks. Some things seem like they will peak in a week, others in 3 weeks. Cyclical.
Prediction based on a "bunch of stuff".
Just thought I'd throw that out there.
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We're at the week and a half point, and around 7% up.
Hopefully Santa comes early in 10.5 hrs via a 50 points rise by the Fed, rather than the anticipated 75... can only hope... ??

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frugal.rock said:
We're at the week and a half point, and around 7% up.
Hopefully Santa comes early in 10.5 hrs via a 50 points rise by the Fed, rather than the anticipated 75... can only hope... ??

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yes there is a possibility the Fed hike will be 0.50% or less and we should have a plan for sudden market jump

now i read the data as higher rates are needed , but the US administration doesn't agree with my opinion on economics
 
just the way i do it , i pick a 'good value' price , and wait to see if a second buy is wise ( for over a year in BSL's case )

bigger buys ( when i do it ) either leaves me with a part-filled order , or done at what proves to be a price too high

i also ascribe to the cockroach theory , you might only see one when the price drops ( market ann. ) , but there could be more hiding ( 'blue chips' are notorious for that ) ( BIG losses missed include Slater & Gordon and Myer , sure i lost on them but it could have been worse )
 
frugal.rock said:
We're at the week and a half point, and around 7% up.
Hopefully Santa comes early
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Santa has been slayed

Australian shares looking for a drop at open this Thursday. ASX futures were down 113 points (1.62%) to 6876 overnight, though losses briefly dropped to less than 20 points immediately after the Fed statement was released.

Shares in New York whipsawed to close sharply lower amid disappointment that Federal Reserve chairman Jerome Powell was not clearer on the rate outlook.
Initially, the Fed’s latest policy statement was viewed as positive for equities and reinforced by Powell who told reporters early in his press conference that the time to slow rate increases may come “as soon as the next meeting or the one after that”. As the press conference continued, however, Powell said it was “very premature” to consider pausing rate increases.
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Key takeout - ambiguity kills
 
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