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Buying the Dip on ASX

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What about an AP 5500P/5400P Credit spread for 20Oct or not low enough ?

Too early to buy more FMG or WDS ?

Gunnerguy
 
Gunnerguy said:
What about an AP 5500P/5400P Credit spread for 20Oct or not low enough ?

Too early to buy more FMG or WDS ?

Gunnerguy
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In my view, do not even think buying anything above 2022 lows, then for me it will be trading not investing until covid lows.
I expect a btd around our yearly lows then a harsh panic collapse until the feds reverse.they will, buy before indeed if you can time it
 
From a technical standpoint, it wouldn't be surprising to see an attempted bounce over the coming days with global indices trading back around their yearly lows.

However, all trading carries risk. Even if we do get some sort of support kicking-in this week, it will be interesting to see how long it holds as the current macro environment is likely to keep risk assets under pressure.
 
qldfrog said:
In my view, do not even think buying anything above 2022 lows, then for me it will be trading not investing until covid lows.
I expect a btd around our yearly lows then a harsh panic collapse until the feds reverse.they will, buy before indeed if you can time it
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Sort of similar to my thinking, except I don't think (hope) we'll go as far as the covid lows.

Historically, market bottom is reached after the Fed has started cutting. The question then becomes how do we predict that....
 
Dona Ferentes said:
ditto
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Ditto as well. Being an old fart, I have enough investment stocks, many bought from up to 4 decades ago giving me the dividend income, so these days I play. I have seen quite a few downturns and treat them as stock picking time, ignoring where the market is going until I am happy that the trend has turned positive before i look for longer term ones.

I enjoy looking for the short term (very short term in most cases) opportunities in this sort of market. They may be few & far between because the good ones are hard to spot, but when they do present themselves it can be fun. Today's DUN is an example.
 
KevinBB said:
4400 is another 30% or so. That's quite a drop.

From memory, BBOZ is quite expensive to hold. If its a sudden drop, then maybe it will be ok, but for a longer term drop it might be better shorting futures.

KH
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I am a short term player. Yes it's a long way down, but if these conditions are met and support broken and any subsequent rally that re tests support leaves a space between the rally high and the support then this market will get buried thereafter. The market is going down further and these are bloody crazy times we live in...

The All ordinaries 20 week nominal cycle currently is projected to reach 6222. If this level is met then the market is history because it then generates a new projection based off the 4 year cycle to 4612!! Cast your eye to the left when the last downside projection on the 4year nominal cycle was generated. It was the pandemic low

z1gof.png
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Wanted to add this chart to last post as it adds weight to what the projection charts suggest,but ran out of time. The following cycles based indicator CD1 I developed for adding to positions when it crosses zero as that's when maximum momentum in a move or swing starts to pick up. This is a monthly chart of the ALL Ordinaries and we are about to cross zero on CD1. Look at what happened on previous crossing to the downside.
 

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waterbottle said:
Sort of similar to my thinking, except I don't think (hope) we'll go as far as the covid lows.

Historically, market bottom is reached after the Fed has started cutting. The question then becomes how do we predict that....
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Covid low a bit pushed.i would go 20% above which after inflation would roughly be actual covid low
 
I'm looking at specific sectors and the leading stocks in those sectors. I've finally learned to only buy on the right side of the "V" even though it's very tempting buying good stocks cheaper than they were weeks ago.

The uncomfortable problem with this narrow focus is that even good companies with great outlooks can get hammered in a bear market. If this bear market turns nasty then everything's going to go down much further than we like. The future opportunities will have great R:R potential but only if we exercise some discipline now.
 
Definately more positive signs today.
Quite a few things pointing to a potential end of this current dip.
For my current thinking, anytime from today to the end of the week will be drawing the bottom, but expect it to be choppy still.
That's a broad bottom based off indexes etc so some stocks will lead, others will lag, as is the market's habit.
If that condition is successful, I'm then looking at whether it gets anywhere near mid August highs. I don't like current odds of it breaking above that.
I'll point it out again, but notice the near 2x volume from the covid low on the XSO?
All that new money has changed market dynamics in this index area.

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