Buy on Friday, sell on Monday

[Glen48]

I notice prices start to go up about 11 am to 12- 12.30 pm and down from there how ever to get in on time is the problem one chart lasted 3 seconds before going down again.

 

[chops_a_must]

So yes buy on Friday sell on Monday worked for me because I took a small position first up and then added to it......But I calculated how much I was prepared to risk first and as soon as the position was filled put on a stop loss...

If you try and trade in this market without first calculating risk and using stops you could lose a lot of money...

The problem with this strategy bud, is that you don't get a choice about the risk management when holding overnight in this situation.

You could have had a market open down 30+% and your stop would have meant 1 10th of **** all.

Which was TH's point. From an R/R perspective, it was abysmal.

 

[It's Snake Pliskin]

well I bought FMG on Friday at the close 2.68 with a very tight stop...I could've sold on Monday but averaged up at 2.80.....Yesterday I adjusted my stop to 3.70...Shortly after the open today I tried to sell them at 4.15.....I was looking at a $10000 profit or thereabouts.....But because of stupid Westpac I couldn't place the order..I tried to phone through the order but couldn't get through...I just sat there watching the price drop until my stop was triggered........Well I am glad I moved my stop up because I still made a good profit...but it was very frustrating


So yes buy on Friday sell on Monday worked for me because I took a small position first up and then added to it......But I calculated how much I was prepared to risk first and as soon as the position was filled put on a stop loss...

If you try and trade in this market without first calculating risk and using stops you could lose a lot of money...

Cordelia,

What was the problem with your broker? Server outage or overload?

It's pretty bad when people cannot trade due to broker problems.

 

[cordelia]

Cordelia,

What was the problem with your broker? Server outage or overload?

It's pretty bad when people cannot trade due to broker problems.

Westpac Broking was out for about 2hrs yesterday.....shortly after open .....The whole iress interface froze up so you could place orders....you could not log into the homepage let alone trader pro....Luckily I had all my stops up to date......The phone lines were jammed with people trying to get through and place orders....


Westpac is hopeless...whenever you place an "at market" order it goes to "pending" or "reviewed" before beinging assigned open status..sometimes for 5 mins...imagine being a scalper with that sort of time lag...

Any recommendations for a good alternative broker...

 

[gav]

Westpac Broking was out for about 2hrs yesterday.....shortly after open .....The whole iress interface froze up so you could place orders....you could not log into the homepage let alone trader pro....Luckily I had all my stops up to date......The phone lines were jammed with people trying to get through and place orders....


Westpac is hopeless...whenever you place an "at market" order it goes to "pending" or "reviewed" before beinging assigned open status..sometimes for 5 mins...imagine being a scalper with that sort of time lag...

Any recommendations for a good alternative broker...

I had similar problems with Commsec on Tuesday morning...

 

[cordelia]

I had similar problems with Commsec on Tuesday morning...

I was considering using Comsec......I have heard Interactive Brokers are pretty good ...I might look into changing to them.....I didn't lose any capital yesterday but I lost a lot of profit.....Well I certainly learnt a lesson from it though..have a profit trigger in place as well as a stop....

 

[skc]

My points about R:R are vindicated by the size of the rise.

But yep well done your green today.

Just want to share an analogy from a finance professor: Suppose someone offers you a bet by tossing a coin. Heads you win and you get $10. Tails you lose but you lose $20. You entered the bet, the head comes up and you won $10... Moral of the story - just because you had a positive outcome doesn't alter the fact that entering the bet was a bad decision.

Having said that, I am also not suggesting that the Buy Friday / Sell Monday is a bad strategy - just need the stats to prove it. Perhaps working with guaranteed stops from some CFD providers would further reduce the risk of massive gapping on the down side.

 

[Bin57again]

Nokia
I think the only way out of this one is to provide some stats. Otherwise, you're a gambler.
Bin

 

[pistol72]

A positive announcement late in the day(3.30+) to help with the probability of a rise Monday.
P

 

[Aussiejeff]

Given the current state of the markets, maybe the thread should be re-named "Sell Everyday".

 

[nioka]

Nokia
I think the only way out of this one is to provide some stats. Otherwise, you're a gambler.
Bin

Do your own research.

I've had enough s*** from certain ASFers and will be making no more contributions to this or other threads in the immediate future.

 

[zolow]

Nioka I like your theory,

I will be watching out for it in future.

cheers,
Z

 

[Skip1jz]

1st post on the forum and some historical data for the last 7 weekends Monday/Friday XAO closing value which may prove/disprove the theory:

M 13th Oct 4141
F 10th Oct 3939
M 6th Oct 4544
F 3rd Oct 4702
M 29th Sep 4839
F 26th Sep 4934
M 22nd Sep 5050
F 19th Sep 4840
M 15th Sep 4875
F 12th Sep 4957
M 8th Sep 5126
F 5th Sep 4949
M 1st Sep 5200
F 29th Aug 5215

So that is three wins three losses and one tie. But perhaps this data is useless without providing opens, highs and lows...

 

[gav]

1st post on the forum and some historical data for the last 7 weekends Monday/Friday XAO closing value which may prove/disprove the theory:

M 13th Oct 4141
F 10th Oct 3939
M 6th Oct 4544
F 3rd Oct 4702
M 29th Sep 4839
F 26th Sep 4934
M 22nd Sep 5050
F 19th Sep 4840
M 15th Sep 4875
F 12th Sep 4957
M 8th Sep 5126
F 5th Sep 4949
M 1st Sep 5200
F 29th Aug 5215

So that is three wins three losses and one tie. But perhaps this data is useless without providing opens, highs and lows...

It would also depend on the company you decide to buy into on Friday arvo. I remember Nioka stating he buys into good companies that he believes have been oversold, which would increase the chances of making a profit on the Monday (compared to the rest of the market)

 

[skyQuake]

1st post on the forum and some historical data for the last 7 weekends Monday/Friday XAO closing value which may prove/disprove the theory:

M 13th Oct 4141
F 10th Oct 3939
M 6th Oct 4544
F 3rd Oct 4702
M 29th Sep 4839
F 26th Sep 4934
M 22nd Sep 5050
F 19th Sep 4840
M 15th Sep 4875
F 12th Sep 4957
M 8th Sep 5126
F 5th Sep 4949
M 1st Sep 5200
F 29th Aug 5215

So that is three wins three losses and one tie. But perhaps this data is useless without providing opens, highs and lows...

Just using those values... Buy Fri sell Mon has done ok..
But have a look at Sell Mon buy Fri : D

 

[Naked shorts]

This thread should be moved to the "Trading Strategies/Systems" section.

I guess it also brings up another topic;
Is it ok to test a risky system with money you are willing to lose?



For the record, i have also noticed this trend aswell nioka, but I never capitalised on it...