BPT - Beach Energy

[Sean K]

Inverse H&S looks good for a probable $1.90 ish target to me. Good wind up between $1.45 spt and $1.50 resist....hmmmm

 

[vishalt]

Nice chart.. with BPT lagging yet large/mid-cap oil stocks rising it looks like an attractive buy.

Might do it on my small/micro-caps trading account!

 

[roland]

I just love BPT, followed this since $1.20.

Fancy a small cap oil exploration company that is cash flow positive, pays dividends, is about #4 in Aus in oil reserves, has such an agressive exploration calendar, has such great partners and is sub $1.50.

Sounds like a no brainer to me

 

[mime]

Price spike and is up around 5% today. The other energy companies are up around 2%. Anyone know why other then the spike in the oil price?

 

[Col Lector]

Beach's Cooper Basin oil success rate to date, and large exploration holdings there are attracting corporate interest....in particular, Santos apparently shares Beach's enthusiasm for Cooper Basin and its oil-productivity.....
Wisenthal (Fin Review p.13 Sat20-1/10/o7) reckons"there is speculation that...(Santo's)...first action to exploit its higher value scrip may be a swoop on Beachwhich is valued at $1.4 billion."
Under such a scenario one could anticipate a fair bit of interest in Beach share short-med. Particularly given the high oil-price environment, & that its current sp ~1.55 is substantially below Comsec's recently released "base case" valuation of BPT of ~$ 1.90.

 

[Col Lector]

Approx 25% appreciation in current BPT sp reqd for Comsec "base case" valuation to be reached. This basecase was calculated prior to recent spike in oil price.
Report also notes that BPT's CSG projects are achieving significant production growth (ie,Tipton West) that has been largely overlooked to-date.
Can expect that this additional CSG revenue & that expected from oil/gas projects(Cooper;B&M; etc) will be churned into even more exploration but then, why not, when you are hitting success ~75% of the time....?

 

[Porper]

I just love BPT, followed this since $1.20.

Fancy a small cap oil exploration company that is cash flow positive, pays dividends, is about #4 in Aus in oil reserves, has such an agressive exploration calendar, has such great partners and is sub $1.50.

Sounds like a no brainer to me

Well I will put an alternate view here.

Everybody is bullish BPT it seems, but with the ASX very strong, and oil surging up, BPT had a very weak day.There has not been any demand for this share for a few days now.Maybe a pause before the next leg higher, but the count I have has a possible good short proposition.

As usual there are various counts, but I like to be contrary nowadays, so I will stick with this one.

It's hard to imagine such a negative outcome but we could go all the way back to just over a dollar if this count is correct.You would think for that to happen oil needs to do an about turn pretty sharpish.

 

[roland]

Well I will put an alternate view here.

Everybody is bullish BPT it seems, but with the ASX very strong, and oil surging up, BPT had a very weak day.There has not been any demand for this share for a few days now.Maybe a pause before the next leg higher, but the count I have has a possible good short proposition.

As usual there are various counts, but I like to be contrary nowadays, so I will stick with this one.

It's hard to imagine such a negative outcome but we could go all the way back to just over a dollar if this count is correct.You would think for that to happen oil needs to do an about turn pretty sharpish.

Hi, I suppose that you read the STO announcement regarding Cooper, this would have rattled a lot of BPT holders since a reasonable amount of revenue originates from the STO/Cooper/BPT partnerships. BPT was quick to release some clarification of the minimal impact, but I think the impact is a little larger than they are willing to announce. BPT were quick to point out that their future explorations and technology involved would fill the void.

I think BPT will be flat for a while, maybe retract a little until some good news & PR. I am still confident of their capabilities and actually look forward to a pull back in SP so I can acquire a larger holding.

 

[CanOz]

Hi, I suppose that you read the STO announcement regarding Cooper, this would have rattled a lot of BPT holders since a reasonable amount of revenue originates from the STO/Cooper/BPT partnerships. BPT was quick to release some clarification of the minimal impact, but I think the impact is a little larger than they are willing to announce. BPT were quick to point out that their future explorations and technology involved would fill the void.

I think BPT will be flat for a while, maybe retract a little until some good news & PR. I am still confident of their capabilities and actually look forward to a pull back in SP so I can acquire a larger holding.

Love to see the Tradeguider chart...agree with Porper here, no demand, its just waiting to fall off the cliff....i've been waiting to short it too, but it just won't move.

Cheers,

 

[Col Lector]

Beach is very bullish about its Cooper Basin future....I think this extract from todays ann. confirms this.....

Mr Nelson said, “Beach has enjoyed a very strong success rate in the Cooper Basin,
particularly through the use of 3D seismic technology to optimise drilling locations and to
further identify opportunities within and surrounding several known producing oilfields.
“This is particularly illustrated in Beach’s strong success rates in the eastern Bodalla
Block fields, bought from OCA (an Origin Energy subsidiary) and Santos five years ago.
Indeed, we regard Beach’s success in these fields as a model in some aspects for the
Cooper Oil Project.
“Success has also continued on the other, western area of the Cooper Basin where Beach
is operator with up to 75% equity.”
Beach has pioneered fresh exploration in this neglected and under explored region and
has already discovered the Christies, Sellicks and more recently the Callawonga oil fields
(Beach 75% and Cooper Energy 25%), all of which are now producing oil with production
expected to grow strongly.
The Callawonga-1 discovery well has been producing for just over a year, while Beach
completed new 3D seismic that has resulted in three more significant producers.
Clean-up flows from Callawonga-2 and -3 were very strong (4992 and 5660 barrels of oil
per day, respectively) with the recently drilled Callawonga-4 yet to be flow-tested.
Within the next few weeks these wells will make a strong new contribution to production
while a new pipeline will enable oil to be sent directly to Moomba without the need for
trucking.
The drilling rig is currently moving from Callawonga to drill the first of four new
exploration targets in the area (PELs 91 and 92, Beach 40% and 75% respectively).
New 2D seismic and more importantly 3D seismic in the areas, are revealing subtle
structuring not identified on the older vintage seismic and is sharply improving the oil
discovery strike rate.
Mr Nelson said, “Far from scaling back our efforts in the Cooper Basin, we will be looking
to increase our efforts wherever possible.”

 

[motorway]

It is holding above the 50% level on the last move...
strong accumulation since march ( from approx 13th )

The last Bar to Me

Displays a clear lack of supply..

With offerings showing signs of drying UP

However BPT has been in a very active trading range
with many selling and buying at the wrong times....

( look at the 4% chart severe price manipulation.. The chart could have just stopped instead of moving sideways with ceiling and floor )

The most peculiar thing about P&F charts are that No matter the box size
The relationship of trend to reversal averages out at 45 degrees

As the chart become more condensed
rallies and reactions
are equally consolidated...
And large cycles become apparent

P&F charts leave anything You can think of
( in the line of 200 day moving averages etc )
in the dust For certain purposes..

( discussion for another day )


Bar chart
standard ( My ) 2% 1 reversal chart
modified 4% 5 box reversal chart..

Watch the next bar very carefully

I hold..

Opinions for discussion

The best time to Buy BPT or ( nearly anything ) is at the bottom of panics
panics occur on all magnitudes
The P&F charts of all sizes
Have their own floors and ceilings..


motorway

 

[Col Lector]

Love to see the Tradeguider chart...agree with Porper here, no demand, its just waiting to fall off the cliff....i've been waiting to short it too, but it just won't move.

Cheers,

Can,Porper
not sure I agree about there being no demand for BPT. Volumes have been rel strong over last couple of weeks but been very much two-way traffic....
IMO the market's sentiment towards BPT is overwhelmingly positive - on the back of drilling success, prodn& reserve growth, the high OP, Comsec Research valuation and large Ramelius Resources holding etc
This positive sentiment has enabled the sp to absorb some hefty negative news well. eg, B&M prodn delays,NZ dry well, ex-div purge this week, Santos negative media statements and a partial selldown by subst. holder (subprime related?ongoing?). Has had the effect of blunting the sp appreciation that was evident.....but also of capping falls. Stuck in a range whilst the positive& neg net out. But which way then?? Plenty of players waiting in the wings for this to shakeout I think. More than a few of these are likely to share/heed Comsec's Research enthusiastic assessment of BPT this month in which it noted it was being conservative in placing a "base case" valuation of ~$1.90 on BPT.
BPT's media release today, if more widely published, may also work to encourage this bullish sentiment by publicisiing the success BPT's racking up in the Cooper.
I

 

[Porper]

It is holding above the 50% level on the last move...
strong accumulation since march ( from approx 13th )

The last Bar to Me

Displays a clear lack of supply..

With offerings showing signs of drying UP

Interesting viewpoint motorway.

If you have time would you mind pointing out why you think there is a lack of supply ?

I am no expert in VSA and to me there was a clear lack of demand, happy to be corrected here.

I know yesterday that there was over 300,000 for sale all day at 1.50.Nobody seemed interested.

Oil up, also wall street so Monday should be an up day, will be interesting to see what happens.

 

[Sean K]

Porps,

I think the STO Cooper Basin thing rubbed off on Beach yesty.

Still holding above some support.

Having said that, anything searching for O&G should be flying right now. I would display caution towards anything that is not.

(holding BPT)

 

[Porper]

Porps,

I think the STO Cooper Basin thing rubbed off on Beach yesty.

Still holding above some support.

Having said that, anything searching for O&G should be flying right now. I would display caution towards anything that is not.

(holding BPT)

Forgot to mention, that there is a good chance that the gap will get filled before the wave C down, that's if BPT can buck the trend and reverse downwards.

It is looking good for oil stocks though so caution before shorting.

 

[rederob]

BPT is a "stodgy" stock.
It will continue to be a very profitable company.
It will not be a market darling because it lacks the flair of an AED, the clout of WPL, or the enigma of an OSH.
I will buy more BPT at around $1.25 on next selling flurry (should there be one).
Energy-based equities are in my sights.
My suspicion is that this time next year many who have been active traders will wonder why they did not also have an accumulation strategy on what I regard as a "blind freddy" factor.

 

[motorway]

Forgot to mention, that there is a good chance that the gap will get filled before the wave C down, that's if BPT can buck the trend and reverse downwards.

It is looking good for oil stocks though so caution before shorting.

There is a bit to write about

here is a start with some quotes from Wyckoff

Not all of the manipulators' moves can be detected. Not all of the
moves are made by manipulators. In fact it does not matter to the
tape reader or the chart reader whether the moves are real or
artificial; that is, the result of actual buying and selling by the
public and bona fide investors or artificial buying and selling by
large operators. (However) Most of the important moves in the market are
prepared, executed and concluded,

This is what trading ranges that are seen on P&F charts signify-
Manipulation ( as do trends too )

A P&F chart made from a roulette wheel will not have the same behavior

manipulation is the opposite of random
OK

If a stock is below value, and these interests see a large profit
ahead, they will take all they can buy at certain levels, then
gradually raise their bid prices until they get all they want. They
buy preferably on reactions until such time as they are ready to
markup the price. Or if a stock is above value, and they see
trouble ahead, they will sell all they can at certain levels,
supporting the price on reactions and unloading on rallies until
they are ready to let it drop. This is why these supporting points
and the points of resistance (a phrase originated by me many years
ago), are so important for you to watch.

Support and resistance and the relative strength of the reactions here atm
esp are very indicative...


Now to Your lack of demand Which can be a serious indication of weakness

There are exceptions to the above indications, however. Thus a
small volume and narrowing into small price movement after a rise
may mean that the stock is resting and digesting its previous gains,
instead of reacting, prior to a further advance. Therefore, in
judging volume indications, we must always be careful to take into
account the action preceding a particular volume indication
( The range of basically accumulation BPT has been in for considerable period.
What effects stocks greatly are new issues They need to be digested at leisure by smarter money.. Hence they are a big reason for this formation on the 4% chart. Large issues distort and make one sided the technical position )

So at the top of this range ?

Then they will withdraw their orders and let
the stock sag and turn dull in order to deceive the public into
thinking there is no further interest in it.

So at this stage the
relative strength of the current selling wave
( The depth of retracement, duration speed, and Volume )
Is critical

Have all the new shares issued gone to strong hands ?
Is there any more stock to be obtained by letting the stock sag ?

A final point
Wyckoff was very impressed that smart operators in business made such poor speculators on the mkt

A Business owned by a weak hand ( in debt , cash flow problems needing to sell ) Might be only able to be sold for .10 in the 1$

HAS soon as it did...and was then held by a strong hand ( eg Warren Buffet )
It would immediately be worth par or even above...

This principle is central to Wyckoff's method

weak and strong hands

Always people put themselves in the position of running out of time and money
In Wyckoff's words..individuals, nations and the whole world.
esp in endeavors of speculation
at such times strong hands make huge fortunes

Large placements distort the technical position by producing artificial imbalances
same entry price same entry time etc

shareholder structure loses resiliency and ..

opportunities arise and unfold from that fact..

P&F charts are not forced to move with the passing of time
Bar charts and P&F charts are two types of chart ( there is a third as well )
That are tools to analyze buying and selling waves....

It is thinking in waves that makes the real difference


motorway

 

[motorway]

So I am looking for support ( Buying pressure ) to hold above the 50% level

I am encouraged by the pattern on the P&F 2% chart
The last zone of such absorption ( a cause ) led to a commensurate vertical movement ( the effect )

I am looking for a major last point of support
To confirm the last rally ( That did not have any horizontal zone at the bottom of it, important )
to have been a major sign of strength...

If all the shares are in strong hands

then

Jump the creek

of supply

Then markup

as in the analogy
the .10 become a $1 ( Don't need volume much then )

( Though BPT is not that undervalued...Not as much as it was at a $1 when the volume price behavior showed clear panic )

In a good spirit in Wyckoff sense EW is bunk ( and most else )
It does not matter if wave 2 goes below wave 1 etc
all that matters is is there accumulation !
If it is in someones interest for EW or anything else to work
then it will or it wont
what ever aids the accumulation..

EW would never stop a strong hand buying at .10 in the $1, from a weak hand

and neither should it You...

All markets are manipulated by everybody

So many insist on buying high and selling low
( and worse turn themselves into weak hands while they do it
.. becoming short of time and money and options)

motorway

 

[Col Lector]

BPT is a "stodgy" stock.
It will continue to be a very profitable company.
It will not be a market darling because it lacks the flair of an AED, the clout of WPL, or the enigma of an OSH.
I will buy more BPT at around $1.25 on next selling flurry (should there be one).
Energy-based equities are in my sights.
My suspicion is that this time next year many who have been active traders will wonder why they did not also have an accumulation strategy on what I regard as a "blind freddy" factor.

The "stodgy" nature of BPT can be attributed in part to the understated way they go about things and publicise achievements. Contrast the ARQ/EGO/EMR/FAR etc PR circus over the Canning Basin Valentine (dry)well and BPT's quiet mention that it had actually found 5 million barrels at its 75% Cooper Callawonga field rather than the 1 mill it was targetting.
This under-promotion applies also to Tipton West and its other Coal-seam assets. Production growth is reported as strong and is expected to contribute significantly to 08 & 09 rev/profit. IMO this has not been fully appreciated, nor factored in. Current June 2007 Surat Basin CSG 2P reserves of 69PJ (11.9mmboe)
From the BPT Good Oil Pres Sept07........
BPT CSG goals...

Realise value for Coal Seam Gas assets with
~800 PJ Possible Reserves
– (pure CSG companies are reflecting on
average $0.54 per GJ … applied to BPT would
imply additional ~$400 million potential value)

 

[Col Lector]

Motorway, have noticed the "manipulation" you refer to. Typically large parcels 100k to 700k placed a couple of cents either side of the trading price. And it works to stifle confidence in the stock, or also the reverse.
Is this?
a.a natural clash of the BPT bears/bulls...particularly in response to an ongoing flow of both positive & negative news such as drillwell reults
b.Institutional buying/offloading (eg, Citicorp Noms increased from 23.8 to 77.6mill shares over 12mnths to Oct07(3.69 to 8.75%); ANZ reduced from 94.7mill (14.98% to 52.3mill(5.9%); amongst other examples.
c.Collusive big number short-term trading by ....?
d. Active manipulation of market sentiment for BPT by placing sentiment-sapping parcels on the sell-side to "cap" the price to allow active accumulation at a moderate price.

This cap was broken briefly as sellers were taken out in the recent "spike" up to $1.60 before the sellers returned enmasse. BPT bulls, bemused, have briefly stepped to the sideline seeking reassurance. A postponement of "demand".
It's interesting that the week after Wiesenthal in AFR flagged that Santos could well utilise its new-found scrip freedom to make a play for Beach, that Santos releases anns that effectively work to rubbish Beach's evident success in the Cooper Basin....and quash some of the investor enthusiasm that was building for BPT in recognition of this
Pure speculation of course...