BPT - Beach Energy

[Porper]

Charting is a cool thing, but are we not factoring in the fact that Basker production has been restored? We also have the "green" grants for Petratherm and Cool Energy offered from the Coalition - I can't see Rudd scrubbing his nose at the potential here.

It does look nice on the charts, but volume today was low.Look at the bar yeterday, a gap higher, probed up and closed on the lows with much higher volume.

I was half getting interested, but i think the jury is out for the moment.Certainly plenty of sellers around.

 

[motorway]

Yes any move down should be revealing

overall I am bullish and probably looking on a slightly larger time frame

So if it does not move up from here .. it could make a deeper correction of the whole move up from the shakeout....

BPT has been opening up and closing lower
Today might give some useful indications

motorway

On that slightly larger time frame ( really degree of magnitude )

BPT has worked itself into a primary buy point (imo)

That is not to say it will not head slightly lower
But to take advantage of a favorable position

For My purposes that means
buying when the stock is moving in the wrong direction

Today I see as a sign of strength
It was a spring with slightly more penetration of support than would be desirable.........But little volume came out on the way down and much more that chased the price back up...

We are at a major 50% level ( as distinct form the minor halfway points on nomore4 's chart that were overrun. P&F is good at identifying corresponding degrees of magnitudes of rally and reaction.. The stock would have had to move "NOW" ie show a readiness to move that did not manifest... The last stepping stone on the P&F was negated , in order for those halfway points to become major.... ie BPT was at resistance and not support)

I still anticipate ( with a stronger degree of conviction ) that the level of the shakeout ( I designated as terminal ) will not be tested..

But each to their own

and When We are wrong that is what stop losses are for...

DYOR



motorway

 

[roland]

It does look nice on the charts, but volume today was low.Look at the bar yeterday, a gap higher, probed up and closed on the lows with much higher volume.

I was half getting interested, but i think the jury is out for the moment.Certainly plenty of sellers around.

Does comparing BPT's chart with the Index show anything above general market sentiment. I haven't learnt much about charts but would guess if a particular stock is in sync with the Index, then it would be hard to read the BPT component of activity. I see NXS as a pretty good peer comparitive stock, and it got sold off pretty heavily today, I think the same would have happened with AWE - but a good news release rescued them, as did the news release with BPT

 

[roland]

On that slightly larger time frame ( really degree of magnitude )

BPT has worked itself into a primary buy point (imo)

That is not to say it will not head slightly lower
But to take advantage of a favorable position

For My purposes that means
buying when the stock is moving in the wrong direction

Today I see as a sign of strength
It was a spring with slightly more penetration of support than would be desirable.........But little volume came out on the way down and much more that chased the price back up...

We are at a major 50% level ( as distinct form the minor halfway points on nomore4 's chart that were overrun. P&F is good at identifying corresponding degrees of magnitudes of rally and reaction.. The stock would have had to move "NOW" ie show a readiness to move that did not manifest... The last stepping stone on the P&F was negated , in order for those halfway points to become major.... ie BPT was at resistance and not support)

I still anticipate ( with a stronger degree of conviction ) that the level of the shakeout ( I designated as terminal ) will not be tested..

But each to their own

and When We are wrong that is what stop losses are for...

DYOR



motorway

Hi, I am still a little confused about relying on charting data - since the upward move today was due to good news. I am wondering how a change in circumstances can be factored in historical charting?

 

[motorway]

I was half getting interested, but i think the jury is out for the moment.Certainly plenty of sellers around.

Is it better to buy while there are plenty of sellers around
or wait till there are not enough ?



Here touches on the difference between anti caption and prediction
Which again is the difference between position and trend...

And is also the difference between support and resistance ..



roland such ( relative strength ) analysis as you suggest is very important



motorway

 

[motorway]

Hi, I am still a little confused about relying on charting data - since the upward move today was due to good news. I am wondering how a change in circumstances can be factored in historical charting?

It is the current action in the context of the large trading range BPT as be in

Charting can mean different things to different people..

The large trading range in BPT... does not happen by accident.

motorway

 

[roland]

It is the current action in the context of the large trading range BPT as be in

Charting can mean different things to different people..

The large trading range in BPT... does not happen by accident.

motorway

so, if I were to look at the chart data, low volume with a downward trend - possibly to $1.20 it would look like a sell (or at a minimum, a hold).

If I were to look at the emotion from watching it everyday - then I would say, today's news of Basker coming back online, oil prices at a record high, possible Govt grants, Comsec 12 month target of around $2.00, I would see BPT as a strong buy.

This is why I am confused about the charting perspective. Maybe the emotional side is only good for long term ????

 

[motorway]

It does look nice on the charts, but volume today was low.Look at the bar yeterday, a gap higher, probed up and closed on the lows with much higher volume.

I was half getting interested, but i think the jury is out for the moment.Certainly plenty of sellers around.

On relative strength........Porper has marked two bars on his chart..

In the context of what the market was doing on those days

does that change the "appearance" ?

We will find out when the market turns up

motorway

 

[tybutler]

Might be of interest for Beach holders...

Beach discovers oil in Cooper Basin

27/11/2007 4:01pm

Oil producer Beach Petroleum has made a new oil discovery near the company's Callawonga field on the western flank of the Cooper Basin in South Australia.

Beach said the newly discovered Parson's field is likely to contain more than one million barrels of recoverable oil.

The company said the reservoir quality at the Parsons-1 discovery could be better than the Callawonga field, where recent wells have flowed at 5,000 barrels of oil per day.

Beach said the new Parson's discovery lies nine kilometres north west and eight kilometres southwest of the oil producing facilities at Christies and Callawonga.

 

[profithunter]

A new oil discovery and the stock did nothing!?!

I have a new name for beach...B!atch Petroleum, this stock better run tomorrow when we are up 50 points

 

[The Mint Man]

A new oil discovery and the stock did nothing!?!

I have a new name for beach...B!atch Petroleum, this stock better run tomorrow when we are up 50 points

I have had my eye on this one for a while... I watched it go from about $1.40 to $1.57 or there abouts then all the way back to where it is now.

I have to agree with you Profithunter, you would think that news like this would send it sky wards but no.
Surely there is a reason for this? its not like the market didn't have time to react, it was released just after 1pm this arvo.

Cheers

 

[justjohn]

I have had my eye on this one for a while... I watched it go from about $1.40 to $1.57 or there abouts then all the way back to where it is now.

I have to agree with you Profithunter, you would think that news like this would send it sky wards but no.
Surely there is a reason for this? its not like the market didn't have time to react, it was released just after 1pm this arvo.

Cheers

It should run tomorrow hopefully ,so a tip Mint get rid of those WOOF...WOOF ... STOCKS VPE BDG OSH.........and get on to this:remybussi 299 posts

 

[The Mint Man]

It should run tomorrow hopefully ,so a tip Mint get rid of those WOOF...WOOF ... STOCKS VPE BDG OSH.........and get on to this:remybussi 299 posts

Why run tomorrow when it could have ran up today?
As for OSH, its a great oil stock and one that would be considered a take over target hence its current price. No regrets on OSH thats for sure, more than you can say for ccv,fun, ccp, rex, mcp, sfh, rat I'd say. hehe

Cheers

 

[roland]

I didn't understand the lack of interest today either. My only guess is ... if you look at most of the announcements of finds, they generally are capped as a "future" oil producer.

I suppose it's all well and good drilling a hole in the dirt and finding some oil shows, but you still have to pump it out, barrell it, and get it somewhere to sell it. It's not much good for shareholders to have it stuck in the ground with a red tag lacky banded to a stump of a capped piece of steel pipe poking out of the dust.

 

[Col Lector]

Roland... the lack of interest continues to confound. I put it down to an ongoing sell-down by a large holder. A check of the register may reveal more.
The release below is very positive...anticipating Parson's to be better than Callawonga, and a "near-future" oil producer that will tie in beautifully with the Callawonga pipeline under construction.
COE is similarly not reflecting the significance of this find as yet.
The market will catch on sooner or later....be prepared.

Beach strikes new oil in Cooper
Article from Adelaide Advertiser
CAMERON ENGLAND
November 27, 2007 02:30pm
BEACH Petroleum has discovered a new oil field in the Cooper Basin, likely to contain one million barrels of recoverable oil.

The Parsons Field, close to Beach's Callawonga, Christies and Sellicks fields, is on the western edge of the Cooper Basin in an area known as the West Patchawarra Flank.

Beach managing director Reg Nelson said the area had been virtually ignored by earlier explorers.
``This latest discovery, close to the Christies, Sellicks and Callawonga oil fields confirms our belief in the potential of this under-explored region of the Cooper-Eromanga Basins,'' Mr Nelson said.

``The region now deserves recognition as a significant oil sub-province of the basins.''

Mr Nelson said the reservoir quality of the new find was excellent, and the field could flow better than the Callawonga Field, which had been producing at better than 5000 barrels of oil per day.
``The size of the Callawonga Field and the deliverability of its wells, has been sufficient to encourage us to build a new pipeline to deliver oil to the Moomba processing facility and thence to Port Bonython,'' Mr Nelson said.

``Callawonga alone is expected to deliver around 5000 barrels of oil a day to markets on completion in the next month or so.

``Its role as a trunk line from the West Patchawarra Flank directly to markets is now assured and the costs of transport will now be reduced significantly.''

The Callawonga pipeline is currently being constructed and should be finished early next year.
Beach has a 75 per cent share in the discovery while Cooper Energy owns the remaining quarter share.

 

[The Mint Man]

I didn't understand the lack of interest today either. My only guess is ... if you look at most of the announcements of finds, they generally are capped as a "future" oil producer.

I suppose it's all well and good drilling a hole in the dirt and finding some oil shows, but you still have to pump it out, barrell it, and get it somewhere to sell it. It's not much good for shareholders to have it stuck in the ground with a red tag lacky banded to a stump of a capped piece of steel pipe poking out of the dust.

I sort of agree with what you say but most the time these sort of things will be priced into a stock no matter when they will actually earn $$$ from it.

 

[Col Lector]

Roland... the lack of interest continues to confound. I put it down to an ongoing sell-down by a large holder. A check of the register may reveal more..............

20 largest as at October 2 2007:

1 Citicorp Nominees Pty Limited 77,624,986 8.75
2 HSBC Custody Nominees
(Australia) Limited 53,107,603 5.99
3 ANZ Nominees Limited 52,388,260 5.90
4 Pan Austrlian Nominees Pty Ltd 50,124,275 5.65
5 RBC Global Services Australia
Nominees Pty Ltd 40,204,797 4.53
6 J P Morgan Nominees Australia Limited 34,275,200 3.86
7 Cogent Nominees Pty Limited 21,528,339 2.43
8 Matthews Capital Partners Pty Ltd 16,479,208 1.86
9 Tasman Asset Management Ltd 13,443,891 1.52
10 Invia Custodian Pty Limited 13,018,533 1.47
11 National Nominees Limited 11,136,106 1.26
12 Dr Ian Sidney Bennett 6,881,873 0.78
13 Equity Trustees Ltd 5,289,959 0.60
14 Zero Nominees Pty Ltd 5,160,858 0.58
15 Thorney Investments Pty Ltd 5,088,948 0.57
16 Irrewarra Investments Pty Ltd
Strategic 1 A/C 4,185,671 0.47
17 Mr Stephen John and
Mrs Beth Sharon Lewis 4,000,000 0.45
18 Mr Thai King Tiong 3,362,426 0.38
19 Promina Equities Limited 2,882,268 0.32
20 Australian Executor Trustees Limited
No 1 Account 2,808,446 0.32

Be interesting to get hands on a up to date register. I note a few holders that may be suffering some sub-prime related squeezing. Could help explain the capping of sp gains despite the continued flow of good news.

It should also be remembered that the Basker-Manta-gummy production problems were fully insured for...and therefore this cant be considered a big factor in the non-performance.

 

[roland]

Well, what a great Chairman's address from Beach. I am almost teary eyed. What made it even better was that I had the BPT chart in view as I read all 76 pages, and every 15 pages or so the chart notched up half a cent.

Either I am easily impressed or that was one hell of a briefing.

 

[Nick Radge]

Good move yesterday. I'm happily long at a good price. Not sure that we'll see new highs just yet though. Now the fundamentals can do as they wish...

 

[nomore4s]

I also took a position in BPT this week after the spring last week held, will be looking to pyramid at some stage if the opp presents as I couldn't get a big enough position with where I placed the stop on the current trade.