BPT - Beach Energy

[qldfrog]

Michael Gable thinks oil stocks could take off. Obviously there will be individual variation. He is keen on Woodside:

"Is this the next sector to take off?
"I recently wrote about how share markets could see some large rotations occur once the US Federal Reserve started cutting interest rates.
Two weeks ago I made a quick video explaining that it was a matter of when not if commodities start a huge rally.
So what is the next sector that is due to take off? Are we about to see a massive short squeeze in oil stocks?"

BPT Held
Holding

On paper WDS should be the one, but i find it hard to go back significantly.. from past experience.not that they will not ride the wave as any oiler will.
I have nevertheless a small exposure to WDS, a painful much bigger to BPT..was too early..and a nice OOO and FUEL ETFs packet

 

[So_Cynical]

on fundamentals , it should trend lower , on a slowing economy and higher inflation ( higher costs )

however it DOES have several capped wells ( waiting for infrastructure and a profitable scenario for those wells )
my av. SP is 52.5 cents , as i was buying from 76.5 cents down to 40 vents in 2015/2016

i start to find BPT interesting when it dips below 80 cents

The inflation feeds straight into the end product so i really dont think inflation is relevant, yep Beach have a **** load of capped wells just waiting - this kind of cracks me up every time the media carry's on about gas shortages, Beach may have more gas in capped wells than it does in production wells.

 

[finicky]

a painful much bigger to BPT..

@qldfrog yes, I was too early into BPT too following on from a lengthy essay by Greg Canavan: 'Not Zero' sic, and his successive BUY recs for Beach. He first tipped it in January 2021. Anyway I don't mind my manageable holding and just hope that Waitsia pays off. I think Greg still believes higher production lies ahead but has a HOLD on it currently. By the way he has also tipped OccIdental Petroleum (OXY) on the NYSE for anyone who ventures into foreign markets. Isn't OXY the one that Buffett has been buying? On the ASX he is also tipping Karoon Energy (KAR) still a BUY and Origin (ORG) Hold. Woodside is a BUY and then there are his coal stocks mentioned on other threads.
My average on BPT : $1.51
Edit: just checked out the long term chart of OXY. Currently at $55 but crashed as far as $10 in the year of the CCP Wuhan pandemic, 2020.

 

[finicky]

It's almost patriotic to own this share.

Held
Holding

 

[Ferret]

I wondered why it was down 5% today.

A Perth basin Site Visit presentation was released and included this slide advising of more problems with the Waitsia project.

 

[finicky]

Re Waitsia delay.
Excerpt from Greg Canavan's fat tail investment advisory today:

" . . the upshot is that Beach now expects first gas sales in April at the earliest, as opposed to earlier expectations of the first quarter of the calendar year.

So you’re looking at another few months delay. The share price initially fell
6%. But it has since recovered most of that decline. That suggests there is not much optimism about Waitsia in the share price.

While the delay is disappointing, don’t let it keep you from focusing on the bigger picture.

There are two scenarios that could play out here:

One is that Waitsia could continue to be an operational pain in the neck. That wouldn’t be good.

The other is that Beach and partner Mitsui manage to get things on track sometime in the second quarter, and sales start to flow at a somewhat normal rate in FY26.

While this is a large project, it’s not exactly groundbreaking technology. Therefore, given Beach's focus on it, it’s probable that the project will be up and running in early FY26.

But given the numerous delays encountered so far, as well as other issues Beach has had over the years, the market isn’t willing to price in this likelihood.

That’s why Beach trades on a P/E multiple of 5.4 times FY26 forecast earnings. The market is taking a wait-and-see approach.

Which is understandable. The company has been a long-term disappointment.

But I think it’s worth hanging around to see how this unfolds with a small (2%) weighting. We can then increase our exposure on confirmation that Waitsia is finally progressing to production.

Good news on that front, combined with what I think will be a better year next year for oil and gas companies in terms of sentiment, would see a significant (and long-awaited) share price re-rating unfold.

If Beach regains the market’s trust and sees a more bullish environment, the company should trade on a P/E closer to 10–12 times.

So if you don’t have any exposure, adding Beach here with a 2% weighting, then adding to it on evidence of operational improvements, could pay off nicely over the next 12–18 months."

"Beach is a BUY."

 

[embryo]

Re Waitsia delay.
Excerpt from Greg Canavan's fat tail investment advisory today:

" . . the upshot is that Beach now expects first gas sales in April at the earliest, as opposed to earlier expectations of the first quarter of the calendar year.

So you’re looking at another few months delay. The share price initially fell
6%. But it has since recovered most of that decline. That suggests there is not much optimism about Waitsia in the share price.

While the delay is disappointing, don’t let it keep you from focusing on the bigger picture.

There are two scenarios that could play out here:

One is that Waitsia could continue to be an operational pain in the neck. That wouldn’t be good.

The other is that Beach and partner Mitsui manage to get things on track sometime in the second quarter, and sales start to flow at a somewhat normal rate in FY26.

While this is a large project, it’s not exactly groundbreaking technology. Therefore, given Beach's focus on it, it’s probable that the project will be up and running in early FY26.

But given the numerous delays encountered so far, as well as other issues Beach has had over the years, the market isn’t willing to price in this likelihood.

That’s why Beach trades on a P/E multiple of 5.4 times FY26 forecast earnings. The market is taking a wait-and-see approach.

Which is understandable. The company has been a long-term disappointment.

But I think it’s worth hanging around to see how this unfolds with a small (2%) weighting. We can then increase our exposure on confirmation that Waitsia is finally progressing to production.

Good news on that front, combined with what I think will be a better year next year for oil and gas companies in terms of sentiment, would see a significant (and long-awaited) share price re-rating unfold.

If Beach regains the market’s trust and sees a more bullish environment, the company should trade on a P/E closer to 10–12 times.

So if you don’t have any exposure, adding Beach here with a 2% weighting, then adding to it on evidence of operational improvements, could pay off nicely over the next 12–18 months."

"Beach is a BUY."

Beach is way over budget with the gas plant having now cost $1.3 bil and also they don't have enough gas so they are saying that 3rd parties may be able to use the plant on a toll system.

 

[rcw1]

Beach Energy cut to Neutral; target raised 9pc to $1.20: Citi

 

[Dona Ferentes]

Beach Energy cut to Neutral; target raised 9pc to $1.20: Citi

market reacted to ? .... up 10 percent to $1.33.

 

[rcw1]

market reacted to ? .... up 10 percent to $1.33.

Murphy’s law … ha ha ha

 

[divs4ever]

Murphy’s law … ha ha ha

but , but Murphy was an optimist ( like me , but most don't realize it is so )