BPT - Beach Energy

[Stan 101]

I have just glanced through the Beach report card released this evening. The thing that initially stood out to me was the amount of partnerships Beach is a part of.
Is it possible to run an effective business whilst having to continually compromise and negotiate with other business entities?

I haven't looked into this in depth, just a passing thought, really.

It does look like a tick in every box. I'd really like a return of capital to the shareholders on this one as a way to thank for the faith... I own to many shares that are just not returning at the moment...I need a cashflow...



cheers,

 

[rederob]

I have just glanced through the Beach report card released this evening. The thing that initially stood out to me was the amount of partnerships Beach is a part of.
Is it possible to run an effective business whilst having to continually compromise and negotiate with other business entities?

I haven't looked into this in depth, just a passing thought, really.

It does look like a tick in every box. I'd really like a return of capital to the shareholders on this one as a way to thank for the faith... I own to many shares that are just not returning at the moment...I need a cashflow...

cheers,

Most oil companies spread the risk.
You will have to tell me which (producing) oil company does not, apart from those that are "state owned" such as the Saudi's.
Usually I see company drilling announcements with an "operator" and at least 2 other joint venturers.
Much better to have a few percent of something than 100% of nothing!

 

[roland]

Most oil companies spread the risk.
You will have to tell me which (producing) oil company does not, apart from those that are "state owned" such as the Saudi's.
Usually I see company drilling announcements with an "operator" and at least 2 other joint venturers.
Much better to have a few percent of something than 100% of nothing!

Well said rederob,

My (now deceased) brother inlaw was an oil exploration geologist, and we had many discussions over a beer and the BBQ.

Finding oil is a very difficult thing, let alone costly. The biggest winners in a lot of cases are the support companies, such as machinery and rig suppliers and manufacturers. Look at the costs of leasing a drilling rig. If you are into oil, then you should also be into companies like EHL, BLY for example.

Even the best oil exploration companies become great gas suppliers. Gas is a very poor second to finding oil - at least it pays the bills. Look at OSH - huge gas reserves.

The more "farm ins" you get in a prospective area, the more you can feel confident that the target area may have some pays. Be suspicious if you have an oil prospector that has no farm in partners - the "go it aloners" generally have a tenement that no one is intererested in, or they are big enough that they need no partners to spread the risk. Even Santos secumb to "farm ins"

Without any data to support this commment, I would say that 90% of oil drilling operations end up with no pay, some will end up with gas, most will be abandoned. In my opinion, treat all oilers without oil as very speculative, without high profile "farm in" partners as even more speculative. Oilers with oil flowing and paying bills should be treated with awe and admiration.

 

[Stan 101]

Thanks lads... I am just getting into oil now and I do see your points. Nice point about the drill rig leasing... I was actually looking down that path..


cheers,

 

[nomore4s]

MW and others.

Have attached a chart of BPT with a jump across the creeks, sos & lps marked. I'm seeing some strength in the chart atm with it looking to finally break out of the smaller trading range marked, commencing what could be a mark up phase. I would be looking for this last point of support to hold around this 50% area of the last rally to confirm the last SOS.
I only just picked up on this tonight even though I have reviewed this chart many times before, some of the study must be paying off.

Any feed back appreciated. Discussion only I don't hold.

 

[motorway]

The most significant thing on the chart at the moment
IS the current tight range holding above that 50% level

remember there are minor and major creeks

I anticipate that from this tight range
( What forces are at play keeping the stock here ? There is certainly volume !
( More importantly what force is being generated ? )

That BPT will Jump and a markup will ensue

The penetration on your chart of the support lines at the bottom
I would classify as a TERMINAL SHAKEOUT..

That suggests We are close to the Right Hand Side..

It looks a very good setup

Just an opinion

All the measuring tools give very powerful indications
because You are measuring Supply and Demand

The relative strength of the current reaction back
I see as very positive
very suggestive of there being some eagerness to absorb any offerings from those who might be
fearful of BPT falling back to the bottom of the range..

( why be fearful .. shakeout action should have allayed a lot of fears ? )

The last series of bars most have poor closes
BUT price does not go down
what is supporting the price ?

The low of every bar is where demand overcame Supply
The high of every bar is where supply overcame demand

How did these things happen

My view is that at the top of those bars It was demand that tried to allow the price to sag..

As long as the 50% continues to be strong support though We can be sure that what appears as weakness is really strength...

here is a P&F

To put with Your bar chart

We could get a strong move up from this congestion
BPT is starting to work out it's counts

may it continue

pure chart orientated opinion
for discussion

always manage risk
so that what is mistaken is only a learning experience

nothing is ever certain

When P&F charts start climbing the stairs ?

motorway

 

[Porper]

MW and others.

Have attached a chart of BPT with a jump across the creeks, sos & lps marked. I'm seeing some strength in the chart atm with it looking to finally break out of the smaller trading range marked, commencing what could be a mark up phase. I would be looking for this last point of support to hold around this 50% area of the last rally to confirm the last SOS.
I only just picked up on this tonight even though I have reviewed this chart many times before, some of the study must be paying off.

Any feed back appreciated. Discussion only I don't hold.

Well I still disagree with the bullish outlook.The crunch will come when oil retreats and the markets correct slightly.

If the bullish scenario is to come out then I would expect BPT to hold strong in the above situation.Buyers coming in to say thanks very much to all the sellers.

I don't think it will happen.

 

[roland]

From a non-chart perpective, doesn't having sat here at $1.47 -$1.50 for such a long time indicate a consolidation point? The charts are a good tool and I should learn to use them one day - but they cannot predict news releases.

 

[motorway]

Yes any move down should be revealing

overall I am bullish and probably looking on a slightly larger time frame

So if it does not move up from here .. it could make a deeper correction of the whole move up from the shakeout....

BPT has been opening up and closing lower
Today might give some useful indications

motorway

 

[profithunter]

Great day for beach with a strong move through 150, if it moves through 160 we should see 190 pretty quickly

 

[roland]

Great day for beach with a strong move through 150, if it moves through 160 we should see 190 pretty quickly

Wahhh, that would be nice. You know I have 3 packets of shares and I was going to offload my top at $1.55 at pre-close, but I pulled it at the last moment as I have a gut feeling that selling right now isn't the best thing to do. I am happily in profit with all my packets.

 

[Porper]

Great day for beach with a strong move through 150, if it moves through 160 we should see 190 pretty quickly

As motorway says the closes have mostly been well off the highs, although yesterday was a good day.

But let's face it, I could have set up an oil company yesterday and it would have taken off with oil at nearly $100 a barrel and the market in silly mode.

Anyway more seriously, the gap I mentioned has been filled so we can now correct without that pull to fill that gap.If indeed it is going to correct to the downside.

 

[Nick Radge]

Yesterdays rise has now filled the gap and completed the possible right shoulder as per the chart above. Dow -362 o/night. The question is how the stocks reacts at the support or neckline level.

 

[roland]

Hi, does anyone know why Beach is being punished today? Down 6.5 cents, mostly in the last half hour

 

[Nick Radge]

We're not too far from that Head & Shoulders target at $1.30 now. Friday was an important day...




This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

 

[Porper]

We're not too far from that Head & Shoulders target at $1.30 now. Friday was an important day...

Well my count is totally different to Nicks (so probably wrong), but the targets are similar.

No reason to change my view from my chart 3 weeks ago.$1.23 min target looks possible still.The daily and weekly are in the oversold zone now, so when a bullish reversal occurs, it will be time to go long.Should be in the next few days.

 

[Nick Radge]

We hit $1.305 today. Take a look at my chart above (#288) and then the price action since. EW doesn't get any better than that.

I would say this is it for the moment because there is now one of my favorite patterns showing itself. Its been a 5-wave pattern down so any advance from here would be deemed a bounce only.



This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

 

[roland]

We hit $1.305 today. Take a look at my chart above (#288) and then the price action since. EW doesn't get any better than that.

I would say this is it for the moment because there is now one of my favorite patterns showing itself. Its been a 5-wave pattern down so any advance from here would be deemed a bounce only.


Charting is a cool thing, but are we not factoring in the fact that Basker production has been restored? We also have the "green" grants for Petratherm and Cool Energy offered from the Coalition - I can't see Rudd scrubbing his nose at the potential here.

 

[Porper]

It does look nice on the charts, but volume today was low.Look at the bar yeterday, a gap higher, probed up and closed on the lows with much higher volume.

I was half getting interested, but i think the jury is out for the moment.Certainly plenty of sellers around.

 

[Nick Radge]

No disagreement from me that fundamentals will be the ultimate decider in the fate of the stock.

However, we just seen an 18% decline off the highs. If one was bullish the stock and technical evidence suggested that there was a reasonable probability of buying the stock 18% cheaper, then it makes sense to use the technicals.