Bitcoin price discussion and analysis
- Thread starter greggles
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Yup, it definitely doesn’t look very promising, and yesterday’s sharp decline to break $40k on higher volume could open the door for a retest of the February lows.
With tech stocks likely to see continued pressure as they lose the support of ultra-easy monetary policy, it will be interesting to see how BTC trades for the remainder of this year given its high correlation with the NASDAQ100.
All trading carries risk, but it will definitely be interesting to see how price moves from here, especially with US CPI figures due tonight.
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From a non fanatic view: i really hoped initially BTC would be digital gold..it is now pretty clear BTC follows the nasdaq more than Gold or PMs.
Not what i wanted to hear..i sold off some of my BTC and the ETH.just a bit of BTC left.will get more if it crashes drastically and i see the nasdaq recovery ahead..but for the time being, mostly out
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Think the world is ready for the next big ponzi.. bring it on!
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What about a fed crypto USD or EURO?
Imagine the scheme:
Get in, great 1% interest rate for all swapped to crypto dollar then pssshit, devaluation 1 for 100 all overnight, a bit more if you have 6 jabs, no speed ticket and a clear police history.
A U.S. CBDC is coming. CBDC and related regulatory legislation will marginalize existing non-sovereign crypto to such an extent that those that survive will trade at nowhere near current prices. This was always going to be the ultimate outcome of the crypto revolution. CBDC will eventually dominate and expose all the transactional inefficiencies of existing crypto while regulations will be used to stifle or effectively eliminate competition, constrain ramping and dampen speculation. Those who refuse to recognize this inevitable outcome are destined to see their "digital asset" holdings dematerialize.
Biden takes big step toward government-backed digital currency
over9k
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Bitcoin broke correlation in the same way. It's now become a risk sensitive stock - runs with all the growth/speccy plays. Essentially a high beta variant of the NDX.
Which is also the complete opposite of what it was doing. Curious hey?
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The correlation between Bitcoin and US tech actually broke-down overnight, as BTC held relatively flat while NDX sold-off despite the fall in yields, perhaps highlighting the equity investors’ focus on earnings at the moment.
All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see whether these two assets quickly revert to trading in tandem, or if the divergence continues as the prospect of peaking inflation supports BTC, while disappointing earnings over the coming days weighs on NDX.
All trading carries risk, but it should be interesting to see whether these two assets quickly revert to trading in tandem, or if the divergence continues as the prospect of peaking inflation supports BTC, while disappointing earnings over the coming days weighs on NDX.
over9k
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The banks actually bounced in response to treasuries too, so we might be back to the old method. Stay tuned I guess?
Bitcoin investors tend to have low financial literacy???
Yes, according to the BOC."Based on a series of surveys, central bank researchers found that around 5 per cent of Canadians owned bitcoin between 2018 and 2020. That ownership was “concentrated among young, educated men with high household income and low financial literacy,” the researchers said in a paper summing up the survey results released this week."
"The researchers found that bitcoin owners tend to have a greater knowledge of how bitcoin technology works than non-owners, but score lower on general financial knowledge questions. At the same time, “Canadians who are financially literate are more likely to be aware of bitcoin [than the average Canadian] but less likely to own it,”
Anecdotally, my discussions with those in my social circle who own crypto tend to confirm this. Many have a good understanding of crypto, blockchain tech and even the history of money, think of themselves as investors when they are actually just speculators and have low financial literacy in general. There are exceptions of course but they are definitely in the minority.
The correlation between Bitcoin and US tech resumed on Friday after a brief 3 day rally in BTC has completely reversed. As interest rates continue to rise fueling more weakness in the tech sector, BTC could be in for a very rough ride over the next 12 months if this correlation continues.
Suspect only die hard hodlers will ride out the fall hoping history will repeat and BTC rally after a big fall. Problem is there is more leverage than ever propping up BTC by entities like MicroStrategy. If forced to unwind such positions, this could dramatically escalate a price collapse in BTC.
wayneL
VIVA LA LIBERTAD, CARAJO!
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Once I noticed the correlation with Tech stocks( plus a few other concerns), I have been drastically reducing my HODL.
I will keep a smallish position in BTC and ETH, but if everything turns to crap this year as I expect, Cryptos will take it where the sun don't shine also, IMO.
It has basically become just another risk on instrument, again IMO
over9k
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The entire market plummeted. Literally every sector was deep into the red. Bitcoin could be correlated with anything other than being a haven/flight to safety and it would have dropped.
BITCOIN ALSO DROPPED 3%, WHAT A TERRIBLE INVESTMENT, MAN YOU'D BE FEELING SO DUMB IF YOU'D BOUGHT SOME BITCOIN INSTEAD OF STOCKS WOULDN'T YOU?
Honestly, this dude's analysis is about as deep as a puddle of rain.
BITCOIN ALSO DROPPED 3%, WHAT A TERRIBLE INVESTMENT, MAN YOU'D BE FEELING SO DUMB IF YOU'D BOUGHT SOME BITCOIN INSTEAD OF STOCKS WOULDN'T YOU?
Honestly, this dude's analysis is about as deep as a puddle of rain.
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wayneL
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'cept bonds. (Though generally in a downtrend and presenting with some other interesting signals)
That kind of makes sense on one level but little sense on another. It kinda makes me think this isn't "it", not yet anyway.
over9k
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Bonds are inversely correlated to yields, so they were slaughtered too.
The USD was literally the only thing that ran, ironically actually placing quite a nice cushion on crypto prices in AUD.
over9k
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This is why bonds pumped.
wayneL
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Yeah, MPT an' all that.
I am waiting for the run in yields. Then we will see the rubber meet the road. Yes there is all the priced ****, I want to see when reality meets expectations.
Bitcoin leverage ratio is increasing, interesting time to be making ever higher leveraged bets on Bitcoin...
Chart Description
"The exchange's open interest divided by their coins reserve which shows how much leverage is used by users on average.
Increase in values indicates more investors are taking high leverage risk in the derivative trade."
Chart Description
"The exchange's open interest divided by their coins reserve which shows how much leverage is used by users on average.
Increase in values indicates more investors are taking high leverage risk in the derivative trade."
greggles
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Say what you like about the fundamentals, but Bitcoin has been great for technical traders this year. You could have done very well for yourself buying at $38,000 and selling around $44,000.
True enough, but then Bitcoin is not touted as a trading instrument. Instead, you're meant to buy and hold your digital gold in your digital wallet long term since there will only ever be 2.1 quadrillion satoshis so supply is limited. Limited supply must equate to an ever rising price right? Just ignore the price action over the last 12 months as an aberration.
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