Bitcoin price discussion and analysis

[greggles]

True enough, but then Bitcoin is not touted as a trading instrument. Instead, you're meant to buy and hold your digital gold in your digital wallet long term since there will only ever be 2.1 quadrillion satoshis so supply is limited. Limited supply must equate to an ever rising price right? Just ignore the price action over the last 12 months as an aberration.

There's no way I'd hold crypto long term, but it's the only 24/7/365 market that I'm aware of; and you can't beat the volatility. Also, as I pointed out above the price action patterns seem more predicable than that of other markets, such as the forex market, which is notoriously difficult to trade.

I'm still trying to understand the crypto space in terms of the technology, but ultimately if you're just trading it, it doesn't matter.

 

[noirua]

Peter Wall, Argo Blockchain chief executive officer, discusses full-year earnings results, expanding mining capacity in Texas, and U.S. cryptocurrency regulation. He speaks with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua on "Bloomberg Surveillance: Early Edition."

 

[Trader X]

Buffet and Munger on Bitcoin

Buffett...
“Whether it goes up or down in the next year, or five or 10 years, I don’t know. But the one thing I’m pretty sure of is that it doesn’t produce anything,” Buffett said. “It’s got a magic to it and people have attached magics to lots of things.”

Not quite right Warren, Bitcoin mining produces a lot of pollution.

Munger...
“In my life, I try and avoid things that are stupid and evil and make me look bad in comparison to somebody else – and bitcoin does all three,” Munger said. “In the first place, it’s stupid because it’s still likely to go to zero. It’s evil because it undermines the Federal Reserve System... and third, it makes us look foolish compared to the Communist leader in China. He was smart enough to ban bitcoin in China.”

I tend to agree with Munger with one proviso, the federal reserve system is a greater evil.

 

[Knobby22]

Buffet and Munger on Bitcoin

Buffett...
“Whether it goes up or down in the next year, or five or 10 years, I don’t know. But the one thing I’m pretty sure of is that it doesn’t produce anything,” Buffett said. “It’s got a magic to it and people have attached magics to lots of things.”

Not quite right Warren, Bitcoin mining produces a lot of pollution.

Munger...
“In my life, I try and avoid things that are stupid and evil and make me look bad in comparison to somebody else – and bitcoin does all three,” Munger said. “In the first place, it’s stupid because it’s still likely to go to zero. It’s evil because it undermines the Federal Reserve System... and third, it makes us look foolish compared to the Communist leader in China. He was smart enough to ban bitcoin in China.”

I tend to agree with Munger with one proviso, the federal reserve system is a greater evil.

Crypto has only been going OK due to stupidly high monetary liquidity and a bit of old fashioned talking it up through the media. It is a computer game.

It isn't a currency. It has no backing. Transactions are too slow to use as a currency in any case.

Now that liquidity is being removed and cash can earn interest again, it is only a matter of time for this mass psychosis to end.

I give it a year. The bigger fool theory is in operation.

 

[moXJO]

Been watching the building going on behind the scenes. Still massive communities behind things like $eth and $sol. I still think they have pump potential. Simply down to the huge amounts of effort to build these ecosystems out. Lot of people invested.

It reminds me of the original internet before everyone got on it. Kinda useless, but the potential was/is huge. People will work out how to monetise and the next lot of billionaires will be created. I'm not sure in what form the space will end up. But it's well worth watching.

I'm all out of crypto. Probably a few thousand hiding here and there in wallets I've forgotten or too lazy to check.

 

[bluekelah]

Been watching the building going on behind the scenes. Still massive communities behind things like $eth and $sol. I still think they have pump potential. Simply down to the huge amounts of effort to build these ecosystems out. Lot of people invested.

It reminds me of the original internet before everyone got on it. Kinda useless, but the potential was/is huge. People will work out how to monetise and the next lot of billionaires will be created. I'm not sure in what form the space will end up. But it's well worth watching.

I'm all out of crypto. Probably a few thousand hiding here and there in wallets I've forgotten or too lazy to check.

ETH should survive somewhat as it is used a lot by gamers in the form of wrapped ETH (WETH) to transaction for virtual items and NFTs players like to trade in games. However should we see a further wipe out in ETH prices, gamers will dump their game game tokens and WETH holdings and try to convert them back to USD or real life currencies. There would also be no impetus to participate in Play to Earn games anymore as prices of in game tokens and NFTs like characters or virtual land value crashes _> exodus of players as people return to real life. Many of these game companies would probably make losses and have to fold.

and yes I lived through the dotcom stock market boom, back then any company could have a webpage done for a silly idea and get IPOed for millions, very similar to the crypto story, and more lately the Non fungible tokens.

I reckon fed will be forced to be on track to hike rates and reverse their balance sheet. Means all the way down in a very short amount of time for crypto till end of the year. And if too many retail investors lose their pants, FED may use this excuse to clamp down on cryptos and regulate them out of existence.

 

[moXJO]

ETH should survive somewhat as it is used a lot by gamers in the form of wrapped ETH (WETH) to transaction for virtual items and NFTs players like to trade in games. However should we see a further wipe out in ETH prices, gamers will dump their game game tokens and WETH holdings and try to convert them back to USD or real life currencies. There would also be no impetus to participate in Play to Earn games anymore as prices of in game tokens and NFTs like characters or virtual land value crashes _> exodus of players as people return to real life. Many of these game companies would probably make losses and have to fold.

and yes I lived through the dotcom stock market boom, back then any company could have a webpage done for a silly idea and get IPOed for millions, very similar to the crypto story, and more lately the Non fungible tokens.

I reckon fed will be forced to be on track to hike rates and reverse their balance sheet. Means all the way down in a very short amount of time for crypto till end of the year. And if too many retail investors lose their pants, FED may use this excuse to clamp down on cryptos and regulate them out of existence.

It's what evolves from this. I'm talking internet pre 1997 as well. The dotcom bust was the shakeout Facebook, twitter, eBay, YouTube were basically what became usable for the masses. Plenty of others made money on the lower tiers. Yahoo was a notable scalp.

Imo similar will happen in crypto. There's a scaling issue at the moment. But there will be boring projects that service the industry and make a fortune.

 

[Trader X]

Crypto has only been going OK due to stupidly high monetary liquidity and a bit of old fashioned talking it up through the media. It is a computer game.

Now that liquidity is being removed and cash can earn interest again, it is only a matter of time for this mass psychosis to end.

Lower monetary liquidity and a rising inflation and interest rate environment is finally testing crypto prices and so far crypto euphoria is fading fast. Bitcoin down 11% last week and 20% in a month not the mention the even greater alt coin price crash.

There is also another factor flying under the radar underpinning Bitcoin, leverage. Consider MicroStrategy, now a de facto Bitcoin ETF, headed by chief Bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor who is known for his hyperbolic linguistic hallucinations about what Bitcoin represents. Saylor, via MicroStrategy, is using OPM and leverage to fund a total holding of 129,218 Bitcoins acquired for $3.97 billion, or $30,700 per coin. With Bitcoin currently trading under $34k, that's uncomfortably close to just break even. Apparently, a margin call only kicks in at $21K Bitcoin but the loss recorded in financial statements will be huge long prior to BTC falling to 21k. Any significant deleveraging in Bitcoin will accelerate the price slide and likely in dramatic fashion.

 

[bluekelah]

It's what evolves from this. I'm talking internet pre 1997 as well. The dotcom bust was the shakeout Facebook, twitter, eBay, YouTube were basically what became usable for the masses. Plenty of others made money on the lower tiers. Yahoo was a notable scalp.

Imo similar will happen in crypto. There's a scaling issue at the moment. But there will be boring projects that service the industry and make a fortune.

Scaling will always be a big issue for distributed tech like blockchains as there is a lot of replication of data compared to a more efficient centralise system(thats why most stuff runs on centralised platforms, we already had distributed database systems 20 odd years ago but they were very inefficient compared to centralised version) I believe the current blockchain size is 390GB and growing, thats a lot of storage needed and replicated on every new node, not to mention transactions that have to be propagated throughout the distributed system will take up a lot of energy and computing power. Miners are needed to process these transactions but there is a cost there which can be quite high, especially as for like bitcoin, which gets higher as almost all the coins are close to getting mined out at the cap. Soon it will only be profitable for the biggest miners to mine bitcoin and transaction fees may skyrocket, gumming up the whole system.

Of course there are other non blockchain cryptos like hedera hashtag that are made differently, can transact super quick and cheaply, no mining involved and could really work well for finance/payment applications, but they dont have the hype and marketing or widespread adoption that BTC/ETHER does.

IMHO crypto might be phased out if FED finally gets the tech to do a CBDC. Most other central banks are movin towards that, its a very simple thing to do, most people already have their cash in digital form in the BANKS, they can just change the AUD to e-AUD , just add a prefix and add a new "digital account" for you to keep it. and then make everyone use e-AUD for payments.

 

[bluekelah]

Lower monetary liquidity and a rising inflation and interest rate environment is finally testing crypto prices and so far crypto euphoria is fading fast. Bitcoin down 11% last week and 20% in a month not the mention the even greater alt coin price crash.

There is also another factor flying under the radar underpinning Bitcoin, leverage. Consider MicroStrategy, now a de facto Bitcoin ETF, headed by chief Bitcoin evangelist Michael Saylor who is known for his hyperbolic linguistic hallucinations about what Bitcoin represents. Saylor, via MicroStrategy, is using OPM and leverage to fund a total holding of 129,218 Bitcoins acquired for $3.97 billion, or $30,700 per coin. With Bitcoin currently trading under $34k, that's uncomfortably close to just break even. Apparently, a margin call only kicks in at $21K Bitcoin but the loss recorded in financial statements will be huge long prior to BTC falling to 21k. Any significant deleveraging in Bitcoin will accelerate the price slide and likely in dramatic fashion.

agreed, the price chart for bitcoin actually shows a likely sell down to 20k prices whereby the margin call could kick in and cause more selldown. In which case microstrategy might even fold. So far it has failed as a currency/medium of exchange, failed as store of value during risk off periods. Only claim it can have is really its useful for speculation.

 

[over9k]

It's what evolves from this. I'm talking internet pre 1997 as well. The dotcom bust was the shakeout Facebook, twitter, eBay, YouTube were basically what became usable for the masses. Plenty of others made money on the lower tiers. Yahoo was a notable scalp.

Imo similar will happen in crypto. There's a scaling issue at the moment. But there will be boring projects that service the industry and make a fortune.

QFT

 

[moXJO]

QFT

Queef token?
Quantum field theory?
Or
Quit fukcing trying?

 

[Trader X]

IMHO crypto might be phased out if FED finally gets the tech to do a CBDC. Most other central banks are movin towards that, its a very simple thing to do, most people already have their cash in digital form in the BANKS, they can just change the AUD to e-AUD , just add a prefix and add a new "digital account" for you to keep it. and then make everyone use e-AUD for payments.

The key issue that crypto pumpers tend to scoff at. All the crypto development effort and funds supporting it just serve as a free proof of concept for CBDC. China was the first to say thanks and ban the competition. Other central banks will follow suit, if not with outright bans, then erecting legal barriers, suffocating regulations and other restrictions to stifle competition with CBDC as legal tender.

 

[over9k]

Queef token?
Quantum field theory?
Or
Quit fukcing trying?

Quoted For Truth


Good god man, how old are you?

 

[moXJO]

Quoted For Truth


Good god man, how old are you?

My answers opened more doorways.

Also, I bought queef token

 

[greggles]

Bitcoin getting absolutely hammered, down $12,000 in the last month and $4,000 in the last 24 hours. Volume is increasing as the selloff intensifies.

If BTC breaks down through $30,000 I think it will go much lower. It hit a low of $29,807 in the July rout of last year. Any move below that will trigger a lot of selling as fear takes hold.

 

[over9k]

Fear's well & truly taken hold.

But markets everywhere have been massacred, so no reason why crypto wouldn't as well...

 

[Trader X]

Bitcoin getting absolutely hammered, down $12,000 in the last month and $4,000 in the last 24 hours. Volume is increasing as the selloff intensifies.

Will be interesting to see how the current selloff plays out this time around compared with last July. Correlation with tech selloff still quite evident and amplified on the downside as with other high risk speculative assets.

 

[Trader X]

But markets everywhere have been massacred, so no reason why crypto wouldn't as well...

True enough but that goes against the narrative that Bitcoin is a store of value, inflation hedge, reserve asset etc. Also, the percentage fall of BTC was 3x the Nasdaq (-4.3%) although inline with other spec tech plays like the ARK Innovation ETF.

 

[over9k]

True enough but that goes against the narrative that Bitcoin is a store of value, inflation hedge, reserve asset etc. Also, the percentage fall of BTC was 3x the Nasdaq (-4.3%) although inline with other spec tech plays like the ARK Innovation ETF.

The narrative lately (even in this thread) has been that it's a risk asset, hence its decline almost perfectly in tandem with TQQQ.