Bitcoin price discussion and analysis

[moXJO]

True enough but that goes against the narrative that Bitcoin is a store of value, inflation hedge, reserve asset etc. Also, the percentage fall of BTC was 3x the Nasdaq (-4.3%) although inline with other spec tech plays like the ARK Innovation ETF

It's a store of excess dollars when the world is awash in govt stimulus. Tides going out for now.

 

[CityIndex]

The narrative lately (even in this thread) has been that it's a risk asset, hence its decline almost perfectly in tandem with TQQQ.

You're right, and Bitcoin is currently trading higher along with US futures as risk assets are attempting to bounce.

Given its correlation with US tech, Bitcoin's movement over the coming days will likely depend the market's expectations for the the Fed's hiking plans. Therefore, US CPI this week could be key for BTC holding support at $30k. All trading carries risk, but signs of inflation having possibly peaked could help stage some sort of rebound, at least in the short term.

 

[over9k]

Correct, here was last night, worst night since the pandemic crash:



However, look at the futures:



As a result, there's a lot of talking heads speculating that we've found a bottom:



So we crypto on the move again:



And here's your correlation:



As you can see, consistently a 90%+ correlation with QLD, which is the 2x nasdaq ETF.

 

[qldfrog]

Cryptos have been disappointing,i sold most of mine when it became clear that btc perf was nasdaq on steroids.
I like the concept of digital gold, independent from CB but it failed, and yes just pushed CB own cryptos..an absolute nightmare.
I made money when i sold my 8000 BTC, but not at the peak and lost a bit won a bit on ethernum ripple and exotics
Was fun while it lasted

 

[qldfrog]

PS: where do we have to queue to place a short on US microstrategy?
?

 

[gartley]

Bullish Sentiment in cryptos is very poor atm. The correct ingredients in place to start a rally back to test highs. Last up down legs have broken into 3 waves which means the sideways pattern has not resolved. Looking to go long here

 

[CityIndex]

Bullish Sentiment in cryptos is very poor atm. The correct ingredients in place to start a rally back to test highs. Last up down legs have broken into 3 waves which means the sideways pattern has not resolved. Looking to go long here

That’s an interesting analysis, and you could be right.

From a technical standpoint, holding the former support and key psychological level of $30k yesterday was important in allowing for a potential bounce.

However, bitcoin’s ability to rebound over the coming months may come down to global sentiment and recession concerns. Even in the short-term, tonight’s US CPI print could be crucial as it will likely determine whether markets continue to brace for a more aggressive hiking cycle, or see fears over a 75bps Fed hike ease.

All trading carries risk, but it will definitely be interesting to see if this was the low or if there is still more downside to come.

 

[investtrader]

Looks kinda like a large head and shoulder pattern to me. And if you turned that chart upside down, you would be thinking about going long.
It's a worthless made-up 'asset' and I wouldn't be surprised to see it go to 10,000 or less.

 

[gartley]

That’s an interesting analysis, and you could be right.

From a technical standpoint, holding the former support and key psychological level of $30k yesterday was important in allowing for a potential bounce.

However, bitcoin’s ability to rebound over the coming months may come down to global sentiment and recession concerns. Even in the short-term, tonight’s US CPI print could be crucial as it will likely determine whether markets continue to brace for a more aggressive hiking cycle, or see fears over a 75bps Fed hike ease.

All trading carries risk, but it will definitely be interesting to see if this was the low or if there is still more downside to come.

Its just matter for entry criteria to be met first as daily and weekly cycle price projection have been met, however weekly projection range does allow for more downside but not without a rally first from the daily analysis and that is what I am focusing on now

 

[Trader X]

Even in the short-term, tonight’s US CPI print could be crucial as it will likely determine whether markets continue to brace for a more aggressive hiking cycle, or see fears over a 75bps Fed hike ease.

Given the market reaction to a measly 50 basis point rise by the Fed, especially in the tech sector, and the likelihood of further interest rate rises over coming months, hard to imagine a strong rebound in risk assets. With a likely rigged CPI print now around 9% or more, the Fed will probably only pause if a broad crash in financial markets occurs in reaction to rising rates similar to the selloff in 2008/2009. Think it likely the Fed will be forced to pause at some point because of the huge impact rising rates will have in driving the deleveraging of a debt driven speculative asset bubble.

 

[over9k]

There's been three days of good numbers in china so there's a lot of speculation that their lockdowns will be lifted soon. As a result, the CSI300 is on the move, hstech is screaming, and U.S futures are all deep into the green with the NDX the highest.



Crypto is therefore on the move too.

 

[moXJO]

There's been three days of good numbers in china so there's a lot of speculation that their lockdowns will be lifted soon. As a result, the CSI300 is on the move, hstech is screaming, and U.S futures are all deep into the green with the NDX the highest.

View attachment 141486

Crypto is therefore on the move too.

China booming back after a lockdown is definitely one to look for.

 

[Trader X]

Looks like the Terra UST/Luna stablecoin price collapse and the threat of a large Bitcoin dump to prop up UST is undermining confidence in the crypto ecosystem house of cards.

 

[greggles]

The arse is dropping out of the Bitcoin price again tonight as the NASDAQ futures sink. It's down to around $29,300 at the moment, but it's looking like it's going much lower. I'm sensing a loss of confidence in the whole crypto space at the moment. Some of the altcoins are getting hammered.

 

[over9k]

Yeah just tracking at about twice the rate of the NDX just like I showed earlier.

Futures bottomed at -1.2% and have recovered to -0.7% 4 mins before open so looks like the panic has subsided.

 

[greggles]

Yeah just tracking at about twice the rate of the NDX just like I showed earlier.

Futures bottomed at -1.2% and have recovered to -0.7% 4 mins before open so looks like the panic has subsided.

UST has cratered. Down from 94c this time yesterday to 30c at around 5:30pm this afternoon. Not too stable for a stablecoin. LUNA is under $1. Nasty.

 

[moXJO]

I'd expect bitcoin to go $10k, or sub that.

I'm in a let it drop and pick through the ruins mood. The thing that will keep crypto around is the casino like wins you can have when it turns.

Monetary policy tightening is causing (well founded) fears. So we need to work out if it's a hiccup due to supply chains and energy. Or something more substantial forming like a world recession.

Either way it eventually moves forward and opportunities get thrown up.

On the 21st April 730pm a mate told me to buy luffytoken. I didn't bother as I lost interest in crypto. Damn thing pumped. He made a fortune. So there are still gains around.

My guess is it's influencers getting together and pumping the stock amongst their followers.

 

[Trader X]

On the 21st April 730pm a mate told me to buy luffytoken. I didn't bother as I lost interest in crypto. Damn thing pumped. He made a fortune. So there are still gains around.

Good timing by your mate if he exited, Luffy is down -48% in the last 24hrs. When you're way ahead in a casino, it's wise to take some or all of your winnings off the table.

it's wise

 

[over9k]

Massive crash in the past few days and particularly in the last 24 hours, but you can see a pretty serious rebound occurring:



Result from the talking heads:



All pure speculation/astrology of course.

 

[waterbottle]

Where will the money go once crypto crashes?