Bargain hunting?

[benwex]

FOR SOME REASON YOURE CHART ATTACHED IS NOT WORKING..

CAN YOU REATTACH IT?

REGARDS,

BENWEX

 

[Wysiwyg]

One of the reasons prices are moving so swiftly is because there are no buyers. They will come, but not so far.

Some saintly and righteous souls in the market may not want to get smelly fingers lol:More seppuku yet it seems.

 

[moXJO]

What a great market to trade at the moment.

 

[springhill]

I swore i would stay out of the market today and for the next week, but when i saw WSA at $3.98 and MEE at $0.10, well to me that is a BARGAIN! GBG, SDL and FXR are almost in that territory. Anyone else pick up any BARGAINS this morning?

 

[dhukka]

Re: Bargin hunting?

take a look at GBG for a bargain! almost 30% drop in one day WTF????

dj,

I was wondering how you value GBG to say that it is a bargain? Seeing as though it doesn't make any money, doesn't even have any revenue.

 

[rub92me]

FOR SOME REASON YOURE CHART ATTACHED IS NOT WORKING..

CAN YOU REATTACH IT?

REGARDS,

BENWEX

For some reason your Caps Lock key appears to be stuck. Please hit the Caps Lock button once to fix this issue.

 

[dj_420]

Re: Bargin hunting?

dj,

I was wondering how you value GBG to say that it is a bargain? Seeing as though it doesn't make any money, doesn't even have any revenue.

see GBG thread for analysis, IMO this is just getting silly, GBG market cap back down to almost 300 odd million. for a company that has over 1 billion tonnes in magnetite and starts production next year on hematite i would say this is now very undervalued.

we have more than 50% drop from its highs, valuations from brokers had placed this one up over 1.50. i just dont know about the whole market now!

after losses suffered on yesterday and today im glad i only held 25% of my portfolio, although in hindsight yes should have waxed the lot!

 

[ta2693]

I suppose when ppl need liquidity. it just not there.
One stop loss point hit after another. all fund manager moves back. hedge fund is shorting as much as they can. all financial advisors received the huge amount of calling from their client to withdraw their investment. We should remember how much money be inject into the market when we change the superannuation law. All these ppl have to get out at loss before we can make profit. If you do not need liquidity and investing horizon is more than 5 years. what you need to do is just hold. if you have some money and do not fear to lose all of them, it is the time to make you rich. it not happen very often. If you want to be very rich, you can not miss the opportunity like today. big crisis and big opportunity always come hand in hand.

 

[motorway]

One of the reasons prices are moving so swiftly is because there are no buyers. They will come, but not so far.

Nick has made some good points

and this is an important one.........The current move the speed/ the angle of the trend on charts...is unsustainable....

Would be buyers have the sellers where they would like them
Having to act as if this trend will continue through even zero...

A Lion waits in the bushes watching silently on the herds walking by.
He doesn't run out and exhaust himself chasing the weak when they are strong for nought . But waits because He knows from experience that something or someone will eventually panic them. Fear is always close by even if it is only in the background forgotten in the recesses of the mind. When all is strangely peaceful, and there is great silence . When the herd is in a certain "position" even the sound of a twig snapping will be enough.... PANIC .. PANIC is such powerfully destructive force that.. it was recognized as the god Pan.. Who you never forgot to take steps to propitiate.

Once panicked by something or someone else.. The herd becomes destructive
of one mind , all followers.. They will even run over cliffs...

And the Lion.. Waits and waits and at His timing... When the weak are truly weak .............Feasts..............

Everyone should be able to see the place of strange silence on the charts
that proceeded this correction... sideways sideways sideways...

Unfortunately many
are MAX leveraged at the tops and
gamblers bet bigger and continue to do so after a streak.


Some where else I posted
The Wyckoff Article
"The experts bandwagon"

There are those who think they are studying the market when all they are doing is studying what someone has said about the market...Not what the market Has said about itself

"Listen to what the market is saying about others, not what others are saying about the market."

Everything is two sided
What is put forward as positive
conceals the negative..

Watch for signs of the herd exhausting ( the selling waves ) and
Watch for signs of the ''Lions" beginning their "feasting"

Use modern "12 Cyl" methods and don't get caught on anyone's "bandwagon"

remember waves are not straight lines
The mkt will not keep going through zero.


How many "experts" were saying now is the time to BUY all through JUNE ?


motorway

 

[dhukka]

Sorry for my slow reply.

My point in this debate is that everything being discussed, and has been over the last year or so, has been priced into the market already. We must undersstand that there are a lot more smarter people out there - and I mean no disrespect to anyone here as it goes for me just as much - but these people think years ahead of the pack.

The reason why so many stocks have had staggering trends is because people have already realised the true potential of China and India. They know what is occuring and have done so for a long time - that's WHY prices are where they are now. If there was more upside scope in China and therefore the knock-on effect into Australia then it would be being priced in accordingly. The market is effeicient enough to do this, although this is a simplified explaination because efficiency runs thorugh a lot of stages and hands.

This does not mean we cannot go up into the future but to do so will mean we need to operate at a different paradigm to what we already do. We need something new to shift to that new level. At this stage ist clear that there is nothing new ou there. If there is nothing new out there, then prices will fall back or re-adjust. A change in economic policy, global policy, whatever, I don't know what the next driver will be. But until there is one, we won't keep travelling this same "china blah blah blah" path. It may well be that the new paradigm is in fact a negative one. A credit crunch, but something unexpected that comes from left field or one that only a small handful really knew about before. I do not subscribe to this US collapse crap. Its been around for 8-years now. You speak to bond traders around the world and they're not concerned. That said, if the current paradigm changes, then it becomes a different story and you'll see the shift. A new paradigm maybe a change in Japanese policy or culture toward US treasuries or a new global currency haven. But its clear than the US$ is still a safe haven as a US bonds.

Not sure I'm making sense. My point is its just not as simple as everyone makes it out to be. If it were people wouldn't be wondering why they bought RIO considerably higher than current levels...

Have to largely agree. Except I do think the US is in more trouble than Nick acknowledges.

China is old news. How much further can resource stocks run? Even the best such as RIO and BHP. RIO just turned in an -11% drop in earnings. BHP is expected to show modest earnings growth of about 11% next week, where is the upside?

As for all the speculative resource crap such as GDN that does not produce anything or make money, it is actually being re-rated to where it should be. This end of the market has enjoyed a run not much different from the dotcoms. Yet still you have those that cling to some forlorn semblance of hope that it will turn around.

The paradigm has shifted, those that have disagreed with Nick so far seem to unable to make the change in their thinking. You are clinging to false hope and expectations.

The smart money is not sitting around waiting for China to turn it around for the rest of world. The type of opportunity being presented here is one that doesn't come around that often. You should be thinking about how best to position yourself to make the most of it.

 

[GREENS]

Geeze talk about panic…This is very healthy for the markets, getting rid of all that hype in spec stocks particularly the uranium sector, valuations are moving back to where they should be; about 80-90% of Aus listed U companies will never produce and those that will got way beyond themselves.

There are some fundamentally solid companies out there that are getting dragged down on the overall market sentiment; you’ve just got to have enough balls to jump in, yes you may not pick the bottom and hence make a loss in the short run but within 2-3 years you’ll be making at least 100% gains. Look how solid the Australian market is we are seeing a large majority of our companies reporting significant growth in earnings (double digit figures), hence our market can continue to justify the returns it has been producing. The market and in fact a lot of companies are now trading on PE’s below their historic averages, inflation is till a worry but under control and the US is doomed, but nothing much has changed on that front over the past few years.

MBL
ANZ
KZL
CBH
OXR
SIP
BPT
AED
ROC
(Just to name a few)

Yes metal prices have fallen but so to has the USD/AU exchange rate meaning in AUD terms metal prices have remained relatively unchanged over the past 2 weeks.

e.g. Zn (US) 1.56/lb when ER 0.865 now Zn (US) 1.47/lb when ER 0.82 therefore what the mining companies receive in AUD terms is still 1.80/lb. no change!!

In regards to oil if I remember correctly it’s still comfortably above US$70/barrel. For all these oil companies nothing has changed fundamentally so why have there share prices fallen 20-30%, when they are still in AUD terms receiving around $88/barrel.

Markets work in funny ways and when the media and people hype the falls, contagion occurs and everyone sells out. The big end of town I can assure you won’t be panicking and will be accumulating at these levels. Ill put it forward that this market will be at least 7000 by the end of 2008 (i.e. 25% gain from 5600). Good luck to all in this market, and don’t be another sheep and follow the herd.

PS wrote this very quickly, so wording may be terrible but my point of view on this matter is there.

Greens

 

[chops_a_must]

As for all the speculative resource crap such as GDN that does not produce anything or make money, it is actually being re-rated to where it should be. This end of the market has enjoyed a run not much different from the dotcoms. Yet still you have those that cling to some forlorn semblance of hope that it will turn around.

Generally agree, but everything is being sold down regardless right now.

Even small caps that are producers.

 

[prawn_86]

Generally agree, but everything is being sold down regardless right now.

Even small caps that are producers.

totally agree chops. Look at something like TMR. has been absolutely smashed in this sell of, from 35c down to 20. And this is a co which has a regular profit and is continuing to expand.

 

[dhukka]

Generally agree, but everything is being sold down regardless right now.

Even small caps that are producers.

Yep no doubt there is some panic out there and some stocks are being sold down beyond what the fundamentals warrant. ZFX was smacked 11% yesterday and another 4.5% today. That's the nature of the market, overshoots to the upside when the bulls are in control and then to the downside when genuine panic sets in.

 

[daggs]

I wasn't going to buy today, but couldn't ressist these bargains

GBG
BMN
EMR

Left some capital for tommorow though
I know it's a risk picking bottoms but these seemed too cheap

 

[INORE]

good luck daggs....you got balls....i'm gonna wait to some trend lines start to reverse...there still seems way too much risk out there and i cant see the market doing a quick about face over night...i had a fire sale yesterday and have allready saved myself 20g in losses if i sold today...I'm liking RIO, AZZ, and maybe YML but i think a bit more may come off YML as they still havent produced and nickel still falling i think...

 

[daggs]

good luck daggs....you got balls....i'm gonna wait to some trend lines start to reverse......

Yepp, BIG BALLS!!!!!, but I think your using my catscan as your avitar

I'm up 3.5%, 14% and 19% on paper so as long as the dow behaves reasonably well tonight the gamble will pay off.
At least I have a good buffer there now for future volitility.
All three companys have major news on the horizon that I feel will raise the SP even in the current market.(As long as the news is as good as hoped).
I've only got 20k in the market and I'm fairly young so I have a high risk tolerance.
I too would be on the sidelines ATM if I had my life savings on the line.

 

[nioka]

I believe I have bought some bargains in the last two days. AGM @ 50c, TAS @ 15c and ADI @ 52c. They may slip a little, it is hard and risky to get the very bottom but at these prices I believe I have value. This correction will certainly shake out a lot of uranium, nickel and iron ore hopefulls but the companies with a future will rebound quickly. That is my opinion anyway.

 

[GreatPig]

A comment by Daryl Guppy in this week's newsletter:

Bargain hunters will get killed in this market.

GP

 

[CanOz]

A comment by Daryl Guppy in this week's newsletter:


GP

Hmmm, i must say i'm a little stunned...isn't anyone paying attention to whats happening? Look at the index, look at the USD/JPY..does it look like its going to head back up any time soon? Think of all those people trapped in stocks that will sell again, once they get a chance, its called resistance.

We are not at highs anymore, we've got to get back through all of that bad sentiment before we ever, ever see them again!!!

There will come a time to get back in, but this isn't over by a long shot, wake up people...Daryl Guppy is on the money with this call. If your not hedged and your still long then you'll be slaughtered.

Cheers,