chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
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Bargain hunting?
- Thread starter mime
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Re: Bargin hunting?
Thats true, but alot of the materials they use are for domestic use, such as urbanisation, and of course the olympics. The chinese arent big on exporting produces that's heavy on metals, so I believe most of their imported metals are for domestic use. a good example is looking at the chinese private car ownership rate.
Thats true, but alot of the materials they use are for domestic use, such as urbanisation, and of course the olympics. The chinese arent big on exporting produces that's heavy on metals, so I believe most of their imported metals are for domestic use. a good example is looking at the chinese private car ownership rate.
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Re: Bargin hunting?
Just look at the number of people from urban areas migrating to major cities in China, and think about the number of buildings, bridges, freeways they need to build to support all that growth.
Just look at the number of people from urban areas migrating to major cities in China, and think about the number of buildings, bridges, freeways they need to build to support all that growth.
Re: Bargin hunting?
Their urbanisation is related directly to the speed at which their ecconomy grows. If the US goes into recession their manufacturing sector will significantly slow not just because of lower demand from the US but also lower demand from other industrialised countries that significantly feed off US consumption for ecconomic growth. This will in turn slow other sectors of the ecconomy which in itself will lead to lower demand for raw materials for all uses.
UPKA said:
Their urbanisation is related directly to the speed at which their ecconomy grows. If the US goes into recession their manufacturing sector will significantly slow not just because of lower demand from the US but also lower demand from other industrialised countries that significantly feed off US consumption for ecconomic growth. This will in turn slow other sectors of the ecconomy which in itself will lead to lower demand for raw materials for all uses.
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Re: Bargin hunting?
No.
The thought processes being put forward here are too simplified. You need to think differently.
It has nothing to do with the US, although their current situation is only amplifying the move.
No.
The thought processes being put forward here are too simplified. You need to think differently.
It has nothing to do with the US, although their current situation is only amplifying the move.
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Re: Bargin hunting?
That is a seriously good point Ken, cost the same but on the up! Who are we to pick bottoms, dirty fingers as Nick said...
Simply, China import the resources to make the stuff and export to USA. But USA is falling over, so prehaps less demand for imported goods, therefore less demand from China for exports from AUS.
We can all understand why sub prime mortgages fall over because their clients are of shaky means, but if the regular mortgage holders start to default in a meaningfull way, we are definately heading for a bear market...
That is a seriously good point Ken, cost the same but on the up! Who are we to pick bottoms, dirty fingers as Nick said...
Simply, China import the resources to make the stuff and export to USA. But USA is falling over, so prehaps less demand for imported goods, therefore less demand from China for exports from AUS.
We can all understand why sub prime mortgages fall over because their clients are of shaky means, but if the regular mortgage holders start to default in a meaningfull way, we are definately heading for a bear market...
Re: Bargin hunting?
I definitely agree that resource stocks look oversold. Check the ZFX thread - with zinc prices holding up reasonably well, ZFX will continue to deliver excellent returns just on dividend alone. Given that in current conditions people will chase sustainable yield, ZFX looks like it should bounce back pretty strongly. This in comparison to say BHP which has lower yields
I definitely agree that resource stocks look oversold. Check the ZFX thread - with zinc prices holding up reasonably well, ZFX will continue to deliver excellent returns just on dividend alone. Given that in current conditions people will chase sustainable yield, ZFX looks like it should bounce back pretty strongly. This in comparison to say BHP which has lower yields
Re: Bargin hunting?
China's total trade with US accounts for 20% of their overall international trade, standing as the 2nd biggest trading partner. Whilst Japan is still the number 1 trading partner to China.
Mind you China export a varity of produces overseas, and very few of them are luxury item. If US goes into recession, first thing to get hit are luxury goods consumptions. So i seriously can't see the chinese economy getting seriously hurt by a US recession.
China's total trade with US accounts for 20% of their overall international trade, standing as the 2nd biggest trading partner. Whilst Japan is still the number 1 trading partner to China.
Mind you China export a varity of produces overseas, and very few of them are luxury item. If US goes into recession, first thing to get hit are luxury goods consumptions. So i seriously can't see the chinese economy getting seriously hurt by a US recession.
Re: Bargin hunting?
What happens to Japans ecconomy if the US goes into recession seeing as they are a significant trade partner of the US. Then What happens if because of this the Japanese ecconomy slows. Less trade with china from both the US and Japan plus any other large US trading partners. I'm not saying thats chinas demand for materials is going to fall off a cliff all i'm trying to point out is that prices are likely to fall due to a slowing of the chinese ecconomy asuming the US goes into recession. How much it slows is for debate.
UPKA said:
What happens to Japans ecconomy if the US goes into recession seeing as they are a significant trade partner of the US. Then What happens if because of this the Japanese ecconomy slows. Less trade with china from both the US and Japan plus any other large US trading partners. I'm not saying thats chinas demand for materials is going to fall off a cliff all i'm trying to point out is that prices are likely to fall due to a slowing of the chinese ecconomy asuming the US goes into recession. How much it slows is for debate.
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Re: Bargin hunting?
You keep thinking China. You keep thinking demand You keep thinking US. You keep thinking commodities etc. You need to think differently.
Let me try a different tact.
What do you all do for a living?
UPKA?
jonojpsg?
Gundini?
billhill?
lazyfish?
chops_a_must?
You keep thinking China. You keep thinking demand You keep thinking US. You keep thinking commodities etc. You need to think differently.
Let me try a different tact.
What do you all do for a living?
UPKA?
jonojpsg?
Gundini?
billhill?
lazyfish?
chops_a_must?
Re: Bargin hunting?
hmm the japanese economy never really recovered since 97, it has been flat since. the recent chinese boom shows that the demanding are coming from else where, not just trades from its top 10 trading partners. overall, we need to keep an eye on the Asian economy, any slow down there we could be facing alot of trouble
hmm the japanese economy never really recovered since 97, it has been flat since. the recent chinese boom shows that the demanding are coming from else where, not just trades from its top 10 trading partners. overall, we need to keep an eye on the Asian economy, any slow down there we could be facing alot of trouble
Re: Bargin hunting?
Hi nick, I did economics by degree, financial planner by trade. bt im still fresh out of the oven:
Hi nick, I did economics by degree, financial planner by trade. bt im still fresh out of the oven
:
chops_a_must
Printing My Own Money
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Re: Bargin hunting?
I am a software developer, almost ended up coding for Citibank in Shanghai. Having lived in China for 10 years it's just a little too hard for me to stop thinking about it:
I am a software developer, almost ended up coding for Citibank in Shanghai. Having lived in China for 10 years it's just a little too hard for me to stop thinking about it
:Re: Bargin hunting?
room with 13 economists, they can always come up with 14 diff views n solutions...
room with 13 economists, they can always come up with 14 diff views n solutions...
Re: Bargin hunting?
hahaha... nah, by staple goods i mean goods that are purchased regularly out of necessity. For example, canned food (tin and aluminium) and its not just iron ore companies that are affected, the SP most companies are being affected (e.g. nickel, oil, gas, coal, gold, copper etc.. ) by the subprime although the majority of the fall in the index is due to the financial heavy weights e.g. MBL, CBA losing a lot of ground. I think when people see the that the index is going they automatically think oh crap, everything's going down but i think generally the fall in the index is related to the companies in the financial sector... well it was initially anyway... now its spreading like a virus
hahaha... nah, by staple goods i mean goods that are purchased regularly out of necessity. For example, canned food
(tin and aluminium) and its not just iron ore companies that are affected, the SP most companies are being affected (e.g. nickel, oil, gas, coal, gold, copper etc.. ) by the subprime although the majority of the fall in the index is due to the financial heavy weights e.g. MBL, CBA losing a lot of ground. I think when people see the that the index is going they automatically think oh crap, everything's going down but i think generally the fall in the index is related to the companies in the financial sector... well it was initially anyway... now its spreading like a virus Re: Bargin hunting?
http://uschina.org/info/analysis/2007/june-trade-performance.html
the info from the site suggests that exports to the US is only about 6% of china's total exports... so.. i still fail to see how the sub-prime mortgage problems in the US is going to have a significant impact on China's growth. I mean its not like China's export to US will drop to 0% just because of the sub-prime mortgage crisis right? and as UPKA said, a lot of the materials exported to China is also used for urbanisation and not purely for exports. It's puzzling to see resource stocks drop by 10, 20, 30% over this... even some companies that post record profits don't see increases in the S.P.
p/s: i'm jsut throwing some ideas out there trying to figure out what is happening to the ASX. As so many people put it - DYOR
http://uschina.org/info/analysis/2007/june-trade-performance.html
the info from the site suggests that exports to the US is only about 6% of china's total exports... so.. i still fail to see how the sub-prime mortgage problems in the US is going to have a significant impact on China's growth. I mean its not like China's export to US will drop to 0% just because of the sub-prime mortgage crisis right? and as UPKA said, a lot of the materials exported to China is also used for urbanisation and not purely for exports. It's puzzling to see resource stocks drop by 10, 20, 30% over this... even some companies that post record profits don't see increases in the S.P.
p/s: i'm jsut throwing some ideas out there trying to figure out what is happening to the ASX. As so many people put it - DYOR
numbercruncher
Beware of Dropbears
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Re: Bargin hunting?
Credit crunch - to much owned with borrowed money - domino effect
Credit crunch - to much owned with borrowed money - domino effect
Re: Bargin hunting?
do you mean too many traders borrowed money to trade and now that interest rates are going up they cant keep up with repayments so they're shorting?
do you mean too many traders borrowed money to trade and now that interest rates are going up they cant keep up with repayments so they're shorting?
