AUSSIE DOLLAR...here we go again? Intermarket Analysis

[Kauri]

Well I had a ripper last night US made a come I am thinking.

all my positions closed and back under resistence.

looking at the aussie failed at 85, look for a continuation entry.

Hi Tradeit,
Yes, good night for the USD pairs... my stop took me out,,, now looking to see if she retraces to the W2 area... seems the BOE and Nth Korea combined did the trick....
Cheers
Kauri...

 

[Kauri]

Will be interesting to see if this forms up into a C wave..

 

[Kauri]

Looks a little shallow for the c to finish the W2 but it may be in... no chance to re-enter so far if this is the start of a W3... however at least the stop for the long term part of the trade looks like it can come up from the break-even line...

 

[Kauri]

Haven't been tempted to look for a re-entry pyramid on this yet, although the momentum appears to be bottoming out I am not convinced the W2 has played out fully yet??? For the same reason I am leaving my longer-term stop at breakeven for the time being.

 

[Kauri]

Still not overly confident of this pair... although it seems she may be forming a W1-W2 ... and momentum seems to be shifting up again... will wait and see if W1 high is taken out and then if an entry setup develops...

 

[Kauri]

The daily looks OK if it is going to form a typical W2 but the 4Hourly is rapidly losing any decent kind of shape...

 

[Kauri]

Well looks like the W2 may be in, although another push down yet wouldn't surprise... will watch on the 4 Hourly to see if momentum picks up and a tradeable minor W1-W2 entry set-up presents to allow me a pyramid.. will at least present an opportunity to move my long-term stop up to lock in a profit on that portion of the trade.

 

[nizar]

Well looks like the W2 may be in, although another push down yet wouldn't surprise... will watch on the 4 Hourly to see if momentum picks up and a tradeable minor W1-W2 entry set-up presents to allow me a pyramid.. will at least present an opportunity to move my long-term stop up to lock in a profit on that portion of the trade.

Hi Kauri.

Do you mainly trade forex on 4hourly charts?
Whats do you think would be your average trade time?

Do you think its possible to develop a weekly system to trade forex?
ie. do your analysis at the weekend and place orders before sydney monday open?

It seems that forex is more suited for daytraders as opposed to longterm trend traders?

 

[Kauri]

Hi Kauri.

Do you mainly trade forex on 4hourly charts?

Yes, started out on daily but found the 4hourly gave me a more suitable amount of trades and easier to identify trade and pyramid opps.

Whats do you think would be your average trade time?

Differs, when I enter a trade I take a long and short-term position, the short-term is mainly for my psychology/peace of mind/lack of stress... i.e. if you look at my last trade on this thread my long-term trade although at market is well in profit the stop is still at breakeven .
The long-term is designed to take as much out of the longer trend, as per chart attached if this W5 (by my questionable E/W count) plays out my original and any pyramid trades added will play out around September... (looking for a smilie with egg on face to insert here but can't find one )...

Do you think its possible to develop a weekly system to trade forex?
ie. do your analysis at the weekend and place orders before sydney monday open?

I've never tried but a trend is a trend is a trend, whether it is hourly, daily, or weekly.. try looking at some P+F charts where time is taken out of the picture, you will find some good trends there.

It seems that forex is more suited for daytraders as opposed to longterm trend traders?

As above...also I imagine depends on the person and their situation..

Cheers
Kauri

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Hi Kauri.

Do you mainly trade forex on 4hourly charts?
Whats do you think would be your average trade time?

Do you think its possible to develop a weekly system to trade forex?
ie. do your analysis at the weekend and place orders before sydney monday open?

It seems that forex is more suited for daytraders as opposed to longterm trend traders?

Nizar,

You can trade FOREX in any time frame as they form very long grinding trends do to how liquid the market is.

Like Kauri I look at trading on 4hour, but most of my trades are on a daily chart.

if you can pick a trend reversal on a weekly or monthly there is nothing stopping you from trading on that time frame.

But if your looking to hold for longer times understanding the longer term fundamentals with help you greatly in predicting what's coming on the chart.

1 tip from what i learnt the hard way in FX dont take to many highly colirated trades, eg 5 trades all banking on a falling us $ then you have five seperate problems when the us comes at u.

i learnt that last week i had 1 spot gold and 3 other fx trades all banking on a weak us then it come tumbling down!

cheers!

good trading

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Fellow Dollar Buzzards!

that brief rally in the US seems to have stopped and the aud has found support on its 38% retracement support line very good bullish sign for now.

i have taken a long with stops at the previous low on the tail.

still needs to beat a downward resistance line but looks ok to me thus far.

Kauri.

quick Q for u now i know waves need a 12345 count with a abc to make it a complete cycle.
what happen if it gets to 5a then goes up passed highs whats that a failed wave 5a then 5 count keeps going till abc is completed?

 

[Kauri]

A little wary here, looks to be a good set-up but it is Frantic Friday in the US.... ann.volatility can be fairly rough...

 

[Kauri]

Well the skippy has hopped off to a good start.. still early stages yet though ... and at last I get to move my original long-term trade stop into the money...

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Well the skippy has hopped off to a good start.. still early stages yet though ... and at last I get to move my original long-term trade stop into the money...

it was very itchy Kauri until the fed said rates to stay the same so it saw some new interest.

i my self look for support and if i wear a stop so be it.

same as my dow play and other plays i look for lines drawn by the bulls and i am happy to play a test to the line.

also moved my stop and will watch it, a new trend in my opinion has formed and i will be looking to add but not in any mad rush. your wave analyisis is great Kauri keep the charts coming.

 

[Kauri]

Is in the area price/timewise whare a minor W3 could develop... although time is not that relevent in such a short move(barwise)??

 

[Kauri]

I generally have trouble tracing out the minor waves in shorter timeframes... may be either forming the minor 5th and then again it may already be in and is now on the next degree wave up looking for W2?? Time (non-Gann) will tell...

 

[Kauri]

Well the next degree W1 is in, now to see if it extends that wave or retreats into a W2... mind you with the lack of direction from the U.S re economic releases for the rest of the week it will probably drift for a while???

 

[Kauri]

It would seem that the W1 is in and we are on our way to a W2?? Have included the time components for those interested.. the top line of dates are taken from the 1-2 wave, the lower row of dates from the 0-1 wave.. these dates are based simply on fib ratios... the three red arrows on the top are based on a fib time blitz that show all fib points time-wise based on past swings, they are where the major/tall clusters are..based on the time blitz groupings in the indicator panel at bottom of chart. All far too complicated and ambiguous for me to try to incorporate into my trading, if I want to use time I find the yellow rectangle showing the most likely E/W price/fib time confluence projection area, which is computer generated dependant on my placing of the swings, the best rough guide, and it only needs a click of the mouse to generate. Anything more complicated than that and I find personally that I don't have the time for time....
Time out
Kauri

 

[>Apocalypto<]

Kauri,

took profits i min a go as it is looking like that trend could move away.

there is a 2 touch support to help show some evidence of support but i am now waiting to see what happens with the price at top resistance.

believe it or not your time projection of low 84 cents is exactly what my market report suggested. so nice work.

I am now going to watch and see where this goes my support in minor on the back of fair amount of weakness but i am not ruling out a upward continuation occurring with a ascending triangle in place.

I have mapped out the three possibilities i see, waiting on confirmation.

 

[Kauri]

And just to clutter it up further I have added the fib time points from the last swing 2-1. I'm having about as much fun as a one-legged tap dancer

More time out
Kauri